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Author Topic: Rasmussen. FL Sen: Nelson (D) 49%, Harris (R) 40%  (Read 5570 times)
Adlai Stevenson
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« on: February 14, 2006, 09:36:37 am »
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The latest Rasmussen Reports polling in the Sunshine State suggests that Republican Representative Katherine Harris has improved recently as the state GOP has rallied round her.  She now wins the support of 77% of Republicans, up from 59% in the last poll.  Nelson has the backing of 77% of Democrats.  However, Nelson's margin over Harris is wide amongst Independent voters, he leads 64%-18% over his challenger.  While Harris' approval has improved from 34% to 44%, her disapproval is at a relative high of 40%.  Nelson, on the other hand, has the approval of 53% of Floridians compared to 27% who disapprove of their senior Senator. 
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« Reply #1 on: February 14, 2006, 09:38:04 am »
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Florida has a very strong GOP party, but Nelson will kill Harris among Independents and Democrats.
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« Reply #2 on: February 14, 2006, 10:35:59 am »
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Harris is a weak canidate.
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« Reply #3 on: February 14, 2006, 12:24:37 pm »
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Florida has a very strong GOP party, but Nelson will kill Harris among Independents and Democrats.

That is the long and short of it.  Harris can win if she runs a picture perfect campaign or if Nelson manages to alienate a large voter block.  Nelson is very likely going back for another term.
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« Reply #4 on: February 14, 2006, 02:37:51 pm »
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If Harris wasn't trashed by the GOP for the better part of a year, she would be polling better (though this latest poll has her doing decently). She's not a great candidate but her unfavorables are kind of a self-fulfilling prophecy.

A candidate with unified Republican support in Florida is going to be at least somewhat competitive. "Independents" are not really relevant-- few voters truly are independent. Those that are turn out at low rates. However, the "independents" that lean one way or another-- i.e. they actually vote-- are important and represent a decent chunk of the electorate.

In Harris' case, it's too late to actually turn the situation around... but she can at least avoid hurting Republicans running for other offices.
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« Reply #5 on: February 15, 2006, 08:42:31 am »
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Strange poll… Harris will have zero cash while Nelson has deep fundraising pockets, the idea that Nelson will only garner 77% of the States’ democrats against Harris is pretty laughable IMHO he’ll break 85% with ease IMHO and beat her soundly amongst independents while Harris will dominate amongst GOP voters… but as I’ve said in the past, unlike much of the south you need more than the GOP base to win in Florida and that’s why Harris will lose and probably by a clear margin.         

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« Reply #6 on: February 15, 2006, 11:10:43 am »
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This is simply a hypothetical match-up by a polling firm that historically gives a greater margin to Republicans than Democrats.  I never claimed that Nelson would only win 77%, thats what the poll states. OK?
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« Reply #7 on: February 15, 2006, 11:13:59 am »
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Strange poll… Harris will have zero cash while Nelson has deep fundraising pockets, the idea that Nelson will only garner 77% of the States’ democrats against Harris is pretty laughable IMHO he’ll break 85% with ease IMHO and beat her soundly amongst independents while Harris will dominate amongst GOP voters… but as I’ve said in the past, unlike much of the south you need more than the GOP base to win in Florida and that’s why Harris will lose and probably by a clear margin.         



If voter turnout in N. Florida is heavy they will outvote the southern part of the state pretty handily. And you must remember that Kerry didn't carry Miami by very much as compared to past Democratic candidates. FL is most definately trending GOP.
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« Reply #8 on: February 15, 2006, 11:23:52 am »
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I suppose if it's any consolation, she's polling closer to her Democrat opponent than Santorum is to his.
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« Reply #9 on: February 15, 2006, 11:28:25 am »
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I suppose if it's any consolation, she's polling closer to her Democrat opponent than Santorum is to his.

I think she actually has a decent chance of winning. She has a lot of backing by the farmers being that her father was a BIG time agriculture man. If she gets the farmers and religious folks behind her then her chances will increase greatly.
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« Reply #10 on: February 15, 2006, 11:52:31 am »
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Strange poll… Harris will have zero cash while Nelson has deep fundraising pockets, the idea that Nelson will only garner 77% of the States’ democrats against Harris is pretty laughable IMHO he’ll break 85% with ease IMHO and beat her soundly amongst independents while Harris will dominate amongst GOP voters… but as I’ve said in the past, unlike much of the south you need more than the GOP base to win in Florida and that’s why Harris will lose and probably by a clear margin.         



If voter turnout in N. Florida is heavy they will outvote the southern part of the state pretty handily. And you must remember that Kerry didn't carry Miami by very much as compared to past Democratic candidates. FL is most definately trending GOP.
The only Democratic candidate in the past seven presidential elections to do better than John Kerry in Miami-Dade was Bill Clinton in 1996.
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« Reply #11 on: February 15, 2006, 11:58:02 am »
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She will not be able to win if she cant get the Independent vote.  Otherwise, this poll is great news for Harris when comparing her poll numbers from this month to last month.
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« Reply #12 on: February 15, 2006, 12:04:48 pm »
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She will not be able to win if she cant get the Independent vote.  Otherwise, this poll is great news for Harris when comparing her poll numbers from this month to last month.

Many of the "independents" around here are very conservative minded. I don't know how they are wherever you live at in FL. Plus the great majority of registered Democrats here vote Republican.
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« Reply #13 on: February 15, 2006, 12:16:22 pm »
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If she develops a get out the vote effort near the caliber of Bush's in 2004, she can defintely win.
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« Reply #14 on: February 15, 2006, 01:58:01 pm »
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She will not be able to win if she cant get the Independent vote.  Otherwise, this poll is great news for Harris when comparing her poll numbers from this month to last month.

Many of the "independents" around here are very conservative minded. I don't know how they are wherever you live at in FL. Plus the great majority of registered Democrats here vote Republican.
I live in Palm Beach County where the majority of people are liberal.  The Independents are that way also.

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« Reply #15 on: February 16, 2006, 06:55:22 am »
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Strange poll… Harris will have zero cash while Nelson has deep fundraising pockets, the idea that Nelson will only garner 77% of the States’ democrats against Harris is pretty laughable IMHO he’ll break 85% with ease IMHO and beat her soundly amongst independents while Harris will dominate amongst GOP voters… but as I’ve said in the past, unlike much of the south you need more than the GOP base to win in Florida and that’s why Harris will lose and probably by a clear margin.         



If voter turnout in N. Florida is heavy they will outvote the southern part of the state pretty handily. And you must remember that Kerry didn't carry Miami by very much as compared to past Democratic candidates. FL is most definately trending GOP.


I don’t doubt it States I said in the past that Harris will always avoid a significant defeat to Nelson because of the strength of the GOP base… the thing is that unlike much of the rest of the south she needs Independents and she won’t win amongst them while at the same time Nelson will dominate his own base and win amongst Independents by a clear margin.

Then there’s the issue of cash… of which Harris has very little and Nelson a great deal. In the end she’ll probably be stuck at 42-44% against Nelson, if she where to win it would be a significant upset, and as you suggest would no doubt be caused by a huge GOP turnout and a very weak Dem turnout, the chances of which are slim at the moment.       
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« Reply #16 on: February 16, 2006, 07:01:13 am »
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It's probably too early to consider this race absolutely over. Sad But States, N Florida to outvote S Florida? That very much depends on where you draw the dividing line I suppose ... but to not be a risible claim you would have to include the Tampa Bay area in N Florida. Which doesn't really make any sense.
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« Reply #17 on: February 16, 2006, 07:21:04 am »
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...you would have to include the Tampa Bay area in N Florida. Which doesn't really make any sense.


Isn’t the Tampa area Nelson’s old congressional district and pretty much his political base in the state? While the area has trended GOP Nelson still has a sizable personal vote there and I’d put the chances of a good performance there by Harris as pretty close to zero… baring the scenario I outlined above where GOP turnout massively outweighs that of Democrats and Independents.         
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« Reply #18 on: February 16, 2006, 03:01:28 pm »
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Rasmussen keeps returning poll results that are feasible, but just don't quite seem right.  It's bothering me.
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« Reply #19 on: February 16, 2006, 03:04:34 pm »
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Rasmussen keeps returning poll results that are feasible, but just don't quite seem right.  It's bothering me.

Well, it is Florida. 

This means that any poll at any given time could simply be dead wrong.
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« Reply #20 on: February 17, 2006, 01:30:18 am »
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...you would have to include the Tampa Bay area in N Florida. Which doesn't really make any sense.


Isn’t the Tampa area Nelson’s old congressional district and pretty much his political base in the state? While the area has trended GOP Nelson still has a sizable personal vote there and I’d put the chances of a good performance there by Harris as pretty close to zero… baring the scenario I outlined above where GOP turnout massively outweighs that of Democrats and Independents.         

Tampa proper is likely to go Dem of course but probably not by much. Out here in the eastern part of the county she would likely win by 50-52%. Also, Harris' home district is in the next county down from me so Nelson and Harris are basically neighbors. Pinellas county is unpredictable though it recently has had the tendency to elect Republicans. They have a popular mayor (Rick Baker) and the county swung towards Bush in 2004.

I'm not sure how the money issue will affect Harris. Harris herself is rather wealthy due to a large inheritance from her father who was a big time farmer. I don't know how that affects her race if any.

I personally think that Jeb Bush should have run for senate but that's just me. I'm sure if he had run he could have beat Nelson by 10-12% considering Jebs overall popularity. Taxes in the state have been kept rather low and overall the economy is cranking better then the rest of the country and unemployment is lower then the national number. Maybe Jeb is saving himself for a presidential run? I don't know but I think that's likely.
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« Reply #21 on: February 18, 2006, 09:41:44 pm »
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...you would have to include the Tampa Bay area in N Florida. Which doesn't really make any sense.


Isn’t the Tampa area Nelson’s old congressional district and pretty much his political base in the state? While the area has trended GOP Nelson still has a sizable personal vote there and I’d put the chances of a good performance there by Harris as pretty close to zero… baring the scenario I outlined above where GOP turnout massively outweighs that of Democrats and Independents.         

Tampa proper is likely to go Dem of course but probably not by much. Out here in the eastern part of the county she would likely win by 50-52%. Also, Harris' home district is in the next county down from me so Nelson and Harris are basically neighbors. Pinellas county is unpredictable though it recently has had the tendency to elect Republicans. They have a popular mayor (Rick Baker) and the county swung towards Bush in 2004.

I'm not sure how the money issue will affect Harris. Harris herself is rather wealthy due to a large inheritance from her father who was a big time farmer. I don't know how that affects her race if any.

I personally think that Jeb Bush should have run for senate but that's just me. I'm sure if he had run he could have beat Nelson by 10-12% considering Jebs overall popularity. Taxes in the state have been kept rather low and overall the economy is cranking better then the rest of the country and unemployment is lower then the national number. Maybe Jeb is saving himself for a presidential run? I don't know but I think that's likely.
I had been hoping Jeb would run.  If he did, he would probably win over Nelson.  The GOP should have worked hard to get him in the race but instead, they let the race slip away.
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Dave from Michigan
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« Reply #22 on: February 18, 2006, 09:54:31 pm »
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the michigan senate race will be closer than this one
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« Reply #23 on: February 18, 2006, 10:08:53 pm »
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I personally think that Jeb Bush should have run for senate but that's just me. I'm sure if he had run he could have beat Nelson by 10-12% considering Jebs overall popularity. Taxes in the state have been kept rather low and overall the economy is cranking better then the rest of the country and unemployment is lower then the national number. Maybe Jeb is saving himself for a presidential run? I don't know but I think that's likely.

I am aware that Jeb Bush has refused to run for president, but I do not recall him ruling out running for any other office -though perhaps you have a better memory than I do.  And assuming he has ruled out running for any future office, he still has until May 12 (the federal filing deadline) to change his mind.  The fact that Katherine Harris is floundering must be making some impression on him..... 
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« Reply #24 on: February 19, 2006, 03:45:03 am »
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I personally think that Jeb Bush should have run for senate but that's just me. I'm sure if he had run he could have beat Nelson by 10-12% considering Jebs overall popularity. Taxes in the state have been kept rather low and overall the economy is cranking better then the rest of the country and unemployment is lower then the national number. Maybe Jeb is saving himself for a presidential run? I don't know but I think that's likely.

I am aware that Jeb Bush has refused to run for president, but I do not recall him ruling out running for any other office -though perhaps you have a better memory than I do.  And assuming he has ruled out running for any future office, he still has until May 12 (the federal filing deadline) to change his mind.  The fact that Katherine Harris is floundering must be making some impression on him..... 

It would be in his best interest not to run for Senate if he wants a shot at the presidency. Senators have a very very bad record of presidential runs. I doubt he'll challenge Harris, his support for her is pretty well known.
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