...you would have to include the Tampa Bay area in N Florida. Which doesn't really make any sense.
Isn’t the Tampa area Nelson’s old congressional district and pretty much his political base in the state? While the area has trended GOP Nelson still has a sizable personal vote there and I’d put the chances of a good performance there by Harris as pretty close to zero… baring the scenario I outlined above where GOP turnout massively outweighs that of Democrats and Independents.
Tampa proper is likely to go Dem of course but probably not by much. Out here in the eastern part of the county she would likely win by 50-52%. Also, Harris' home district is in the next county down from me so Nelson and Harris are basically neighbors. Pinellas county is unpredictable though it recently has had the tendency to elect Republicans. They have a popular mayor (Rick Baker) and the county swung towards Bush in 2004.
I'm not sure how the money issue will affect Harris. Harris herself is rather wealthy due to a large inheritance from her father who was a big time farmer. I don't know how that affects her race if any.
I personally think that Jeb Bush should have run for senate but that's just me. I'm sure if he had run he could have beat Nelson by 10-12% considering Jebs overall popularity. Taxes in the state have been kept rather low and overall the economy is cranking better then the rest of the country and unemployment is lower then the national number. Maybe Jeb is saving himself for a presidential run? I don't know but I think that's likely.
I had been hoping Jeb would run. If he did, he would probably win over Nelson. The GOP should have worked hard to get him in the race but instead, they let the race slip away.
