Strange poll… Harris will have zero cash while Nelson has deep fundraising pockets, the idea that Nelson will only garner 77% of the States’ democrats against Harris is pretty laughable IMHO he’ll break 85% with ease IMHO and beat her soundly amongst independents while Harris will dominate amongst GOP voters… but as I’ve said in the past, unlike much of the south you need more than the GOP base to win in Florida and that’s why Harris will lose and probably by a clear margin.
If voter turnout in N. Florida is heavy they will outvote the southern part of the state pretty handily. And you must remember that Kerry didn't carry Miami by very much as compared to past Democratic candidates. FL is most definately trending GOP.
I don’t doubt it States I said in the past that Harris will always avoid a significant defeat to Nelson because of the strength of the GOP base… the thing is that unlike much of the rest of the south she needs Independents and she won’t win amongst them while at the same time Nelson will dominate his own base and win amongst Independents by a clear margin.
Then there’s the issue of cash… of which Harris has very little and Nelson a great deal. In the end she’ll probably be stuck at 42-44% against Nelson, if she where to win it would be a significant upset, and as you suggest would no doubt be caused by a huge GOP turnout and a very weak Dem turnout, the chances of which are slim at the moment.
