Scotland/Wales 2007

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Might as well start a thread now

As a (very) brief intro...

In 2007, Scotland will hold elections for the Scottish Parliament, while Wales will hold elections for the National Assembly. Elections are done by a mix of fptp (which is the case for most of the seats) and regional "top up" lists (designed to make the elected bodies more proportional).
Scotland is currently governed by an (increasingly fractious) Labour/LibDem coalition, while Wales is ruled by a minority (sort of) Labour government (a certain Peter Trish Law currently sits as an Independent Labour AM. When he votes with his old party, they have a majority, when he doesn't they don't).

I've made some maps of the 2003 elections. Wales is already finished...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

...and here be Scotland...

[afleitch]

Excellent work Al. Very much appreciated

[Ben.]

I really have very little idea, but why should that stop me making a suggestion?!

I’d say that Labour might well get a bit of a hammering in Wales, leading to a pretty evenly divided Assembly, is some kind of LibDem – Plaid – Tory collation a possibility, I seem to remember it being suggest a little while back? 

As for Scotland, the SSP will probably collapse (is Sheridan still in the parliament? If he is he must be the only one with a chance of retaining his seat I would have thought), Green and LibDems no doubt make some advances, as well as probably the Tories while Labour fall back a bit… no idea about the SNP (further decline?). End result continuation of the current collation with a heavier LibDem contingent and the possibility of temporary alliances with the Greens and/or the Tories?

Please feel free to say this is all complete cr*p        

[afleitch]

I can only comment on Scotland, but I tink you're just about right. It really is 50/50 as to whether or not the SNP will advance at the expense of Labour or fall back at the expense of the Lib Dems or Tories. The SNP have a good number of seats in the central belt they can take on a modeest swing, but the seem in disagreement as on how to do that. Sheridan is still in parliament, but the SSP is dieing on its ass. There is hardly a kind word spoken about it anymore, even amongst hard core socialists who are now I'd say more inclined to vote Green. I would expect the SSP to fall back to around 2 or 3 seats and the Greens to move towards 8-10.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I really have very little idea, but why should that stop me making a suggestion?!

Nothing

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Very unlikely; Labour have been doing (relatively speaking) much better in Wales than most other regions over the past few years (Euros, Locals and the General Election last year) and Morgan is still pretty popular (hey maybe he can get Ruddock to run for something ). An amusing feature of the electoral system used (for now at least; rumours are always around of changes) is that Labour didn't win a single top up seat (because they cleaned up so well with constituency seats) meaning that even if they lose a few constituencies (the most vunerable is Cardiff North IMO) they'll pick up a couple of top up seats. The main question is whether they can regain/hold onto (depends how you look at it) their majority; that's very uncertain. Marek is a dead man walking in Wrexham though
It's uncertain how well the Tories will do; as of now it's unlikely that they can repeat the narrow gain of Preseli Pembrokeshire (it's not going be an open seat and their best possible candidate got himself elected to Westminster by a squeaker last May) and Clywd West is questionable (again it was very close last May and the Labour AM is pretty popular, despite being from South Wales originally)... but at the same time Cardiff North will be much easier going (Mrs Morgan won't be Labour's candidate after all) and to be honest they really should be able to pick it up. Vale of Glamorgan is possible, but like most socially mixed seats it'll depend on the turnout (ie; if Barry can outvote the commuter villages). The Tories would probably gain Brecon & Radnorshire if Labour runs a strong candidate (tactical voting is rampant over there. The old pre-83 seat would be Labour o/c) but I suspect the local Labour party will do what they did for Westminster.
Plaid are still in trouble; with the new boundaries (and I'm pretty sure these'll be used) they'll have a fight on their hands in Caernarfon, and Ynys Môn isn't exactly safe. Ceredigion is unlikely to do what it did last May, but they're still worried about it, while Carmarthen East & Dinefwr is *very* vunerable (the AM is an absolute waste of space and won't have the Godsend of the death of a popular former M.P just before polling day), but the strange flipside of that is that they might be able to gain Carmarthen West & Pembrokeshire South if they run the same candidate as last election.
Llanelli is unlikely to flip back, ditto Conwy, although they'll try hard in both cases. There's also a possibility that Lord Elis-Thomas might run as an Independent if he loses his nomination fight (which is pretty soon IIRC). If he does Plaid loses the seat, period.
Finally there's the Peter Law question; which will remain unanswered for a long time I think.

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Yeah, they seem to be gonners. Not sure about Sheridan though.

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The SNP are in trouble at the moment (they should have won three by-elections over the past half a year or so after all...) and I don't think that matters are helped by the fact that Salmond isn't running in a safe SNP seat; he's running in Gordon (SNP third last time round), something that is sure to suck up a lot of resources that could have been spent on nearby SNP marginals like Inverness East - Nairn & Lochaber and Aberdeen North. If he wins it'll come at a price I think.
In the Central Belt the SNP *should* gain Cumbernald and also Glasgow "Govan" fairly easily; but that was the case last election as well and they didn't (especially amusing in Govan o/c). There's a couple of other seats (to the west of Glasgow) where they should at least come close, but that's not certain IMO (well... not unless they get their act together sharpish).
Most interesting seat in Scotland might be Tweeddale & etc etc seat; a near perfect four-way marginal last election

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...and this is where things could get very interesting. If the LibDems do well, they might end up demanding too much and getting nowt in return, especially if the Greenies (who, interestingly enough, finished in 1st place in Edinburgh Central on the list vote. Came close in Edinburgh North & Leith as well) do well as well... as I think they will...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

This whole row could hurt the Tories a lot in Pembrokeshire: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/wales/4721496.stm

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Wait a sec... isn't this the same guy that was forced to resign over similer remarks in 2003?

[Harry Hayfield]

Wait a sec... isn't this the same guy that was forced to resign over similer remarks in 2003?

That's right.

[afleitch]

SNP gain Milton ward from Labour in Glasgow City Council on 15% swing.

http://www.snp.org/news/snp_press_release.2006-02-16.1734248557

Meaningless result, but Milton is a low income council estate ward.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Comedy turnout?

[afleitch]

Comedy turnout?

1562 valid votes cast. I couldn't get turnout figures but the ward.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Comedy turnout?

1562 valid votes cast. I couldn't get turnout figures but the ward.

Ah well... will probably be in this mornings PA report then.

[Jake]

Al, what's that insanely Conservative pocket in S. Wales?

[The Man From G.O.P.]

Al, what's that insanely Conservative pocket in S. Wales?

The last holdout of sanity in the country (my family are Aberavon coal people )

[minionofmidas]

Al, what's that insanely Conservative pocket in S. Wales?

Monmouth. Rural, not poor, 100% English speaking ... the surprising thing is that it was held by Labour at Westminster from 97 to 05, not that it's AM is Tory.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Al, what's that insanely Conservative pocket in S. Wales?

Monmouth. Rural, not poor, 100% English speaking ... the surprising thing is that it was held by Labour at Westminster from 97 to 05, not that it's AM is Tory.

Pretty much (although 6.8% of the population can speak Welsh up to a reasonable degree; second lowest in the country. Beaten only by Blaenau Gwent; which o/c is also in Monmouthshire. Constituency with the highest % is, by far, Caernarfon at 69.5%. Monmouth also has the highest % of people who can neither speak, read or write Welsh; 87.2%. When you bear in mind how commuter (and as such, businessmen) dominated Monmouth is... most of that 6.8% probably only learned for business purposes and aren't exactly fluent. It's certainly not a language spoken at home in the constituency). Not sure how rural it really is these days; it certainly has a large rural element, but it's basically Cardiff commuterland nowadays (with the usual sad sight of old market towns becoming dormitary towns), something that made Labour's by-election win in '90 all the more shocking (nowt shocking about the subsequent Tory regain in '92 o/c) and the Labour wins in the '97 and '01 elections equally suprising. It's not the sort of place that would even think of voting Labour in England; actually if it were English, Labour would likely be third. Before then it'd only gone Labour once since it's creation; in 1966 (which may have had more to do with a desire to kick out the very rightwing ex-Cabinet minister, Peter Thorneycroft, than anything else. Interestingly the victorious Labour candidate was a man from Swansea called Donald Anderson...)
The AM was also elected M.P in 2005; I'm not sure if he's going to stand again. If he retires the Tory majority should sink down towards saner levels (say, 15% to 20%).

[minionofmidas]

Interestingly the victorious Labour candidate was a man from Swansea called Donald Anderson...

I sense a story. What is it that I should know about Donald Anderson?

The Welsh-speaking percentages for E Wales, esp. the middle-class parts of E Wales, mean -all. They're as informative as the Irish-speaking percentages for Ireland. In fact if you analyze the age breakdown, the age group with the highest percentage of "Welsh speakers" down there are those currently in school. Their parents check "speaks Welsh" for them because the kid's taken classes in it.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I sense a story. What is it that I should know about Donald Anderson?

Donald Anderson is one of two reasons why, until 2005, Swansea hadn't had a new M.P since 1974
He was the chairman of the Foreign Affair select committee for a while, and as such had quite a high profile in his last few years as an M.P.

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True; I have a *lot* of trouble believing that 8% of people in Cardiff are fluent Welsh speakers for example... Welsh is just not something you hear people speaking in an everyday way east of Neath.

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I've not checked that, but somehow it fails to suprise me

Amusingly the wards with the highest % of fluent Welsh speakers (according to the census) are very much trendy-lefty middle class suburban wards (Pentyrch, Creigiau/St Fagans, Llandaff...)

[afleitch]

Likewise in Scotland; Gaelic is spoken by an insanely small amount concentrated in the Western Isles, Skye and a few Highland glens. Though it is interesting to note that Glasgow (or Glaschu ) has one of the largest Gaelic speaking communities in Scotland. There is a bit of an argument over the status of a Gaelic speaking school in Skye between natives and English newcomers (I really don't mean to sound harsh, but by newcomer I mean English families that emigrate to the Highlands for 'quaility of life issues' and end up pushing the property prices causing Highlanders to leave the area as they cannot afford to stay) But it has taken a fair battle for Gaelic to be recognised in Scotland

However, Gaelic was never really spoken in the South of Scotland, it was Scots, which is under even more of a threat.

Oh and the Milton turnout was 32.3%

[minionofmidas]

However, Gaelic was never really spoken in the South of Scotland, it was Scots, which is under even more of a threat.

Well that depends on where you draw the line between speaking English with a Scots accent and actually speaking Scots... and strike "really". Gaelic was never spoken anywhere South of the Clyde and the Firth of Forth (except by recent immigrants). Of course, if you go back a thousand years in history, parts of the region spoke a Celtic language ... but it was closer to Welsh than to Gaelic.

[Harry Hayfield]

Can I have one of those icons with the map of Wales please?

[minionofmidas]

The Welsh-speaking percentages for E Wales, esp. the middle-class parts of E Wales, mean -all. They're as informative as the Irish-speaking percentages for Ireland.

I presume from this that you're saying that there is little correlation between Irish speaking and political inclination, something which I would question. I would suggest that there is a reasonable correlation between Irish speaking and a tendancy to vote for the Fianna Fáil and to a lesser extent Sinn Féin.

Oh I don't doubt that at all - although I don't think you vote Fianna Fail? - I'm saying there's but little correlation between speaking Irish every day and claiming to speak Irish in the census.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Can I have one of those icons with the map of Wales please?

If you mean what I *think* you mean (and if there's any confused it'd be my fault) then...

This is the key for % majority for Indepedent candidates...

[minionofmidas]

Nice. Hadn't seen these figures before. Well on those figures 13% of Ireland's population can be reasonably called Irish speakers ... still somewhat high probably, but makes much more sense.

I meant "every day" by the way figuratively, of course, as in "on a daily basis, in an everyday manner" - formal events don't count. Nor do a couple of set phrases.