PD vs. Nym90

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Woah now!!!!

I am Nym90's running mate!!!!!

I can carry Mississippi against PD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I am certain of that much

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I guarantee you I would take MOST of the South. I know Texas would vote for me. Ha. My mom was born and raised in Texas. I have a ton of relatives in Texas. I have relatives all over the South. I have Texas, Arkansas, and Georgia in my blood. Probably more. But those I know for a fact. So I think I'm more familiar with the South than you are. I go there AT LEAST once every year. Trust me. I'd probably take Idaho as well.

I would compete against you relentlessly in the South.
You would NOT win most of it.

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OK, I LIVE in the South.
Several Southern states have Democratic senators, governors, reps, etc.
As long as the Democratic favorite son is not an ultraliberal, which I'm not, he should gain a bunch of votes.
Against a crazy guy from California of all places, the Dem Southerner would carry it.

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Miamiu, please alter the map and move at least MS into the Dem.

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I may make a PD v. Migrendel map.  Turnout would be about 4%.  Lol.

A moderate 3rd party candidate would emerge and take many votes, likely throwing the election into the House.

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hmm,
TX might be possible for PD, I concede.
But GA, who went with Clinton once, I think is out of reach for PD.

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hmm,
TX might be possible for PD, I concede.
But GA, who went with Clinton once, I think is out of reach for PD.

What's more like it?

Oh, I tried posting a map but it failed.
It had you winning WY, ID, and UT.

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hmm,
TX might be possible for PD, I concede.
But GA, who went with Clinton once, I think is out of reach for PD.

What's more like it?

Oh, I tried posting a map but it failed.
It had you winning WY, ID, and UT.

I should at least be winning Texas. It's probably THE most conservative state overall.

Yeah, if you campaign there.
You'd probably get Alaska also.
That'd give you a total of 49, which is better than McGovern and Mondale.

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hmm,
TX might be possible for PD, I concede.
But GA, who went with Clinton once, I think is out of reach for PD.

What's more like it?

Oh, I tried posting a map but it failed.
It had you winning WY, ID, and UT.

I should at least be winning Texas. It's probably THE most conservative state overall.

Yeah, if you campaign there.
You'd probably get Alaska also.
That'd give you a total of 49, which is better than McGovern and Mondale.

I REALLY do think I would get some other Southern states.

Hmmm, I'll break them down:
FL:  Nym90 solid
GA:  lean Nym90
SC:  tossup
NC:  lean Nym90
AL:  tossuo
MS:  Nym90 solid
TN:  probably Nym90 solid
LA:  Nym90 solid
AR:  Nym90 solid
TX:  lean PD

I don't know how personable you are in real life or how good of a speaker you are, how much money you could raise, etc.
Without me on the ticket, you do very well in the South.

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PD would do better that map is wrong. He would at least carry the south and the states of NE,KS,SD,ND,ID,UT,AZ,NV,OK and AK.  even John Kerry used the F-word do you think he would lose that bad.

AZ and NV are somewhat moderate and went with Clinton at least once.  They'd go Nym90 i think.  SD has 2 Dem senators and was somewhat close in 1996.
I think PD could win more ev's, if he campaigned in the same area the whole time.
He'd be a strong VP candidate though.

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PD would do better that map is wrong. He would at least carry the south and the states of NE,KS,SD,ND,ID,UT,AZ,NV,OK and AK.  even John Kerry used the F-word do you think he would lose that bad.

AZ and NV are somewhat moderate and went with Clinton at least once.  They'd go Nym90 i think.  SD has 2 Dem senators and was somewhat close in 1996.
I think PD could win more ev's, if he campaigned in the same area the whole time.
He'd be a strong VP candidate though.

I think I would win NV and AZ. I also have a lot of relatives there. You know, Phoenix. Scottsdale to be precise. I go there a lot, too. They're pretty conservative.

Just a few relatives isn't enough to win.

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My point was he wouldn't get blown out he would most likely carry all of the republican stronghold states.

It would depend on his running mate, money, campaigning, and his opponent.

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My point was he wouldn't get blown out he would most likely carry all of the republican stronghold states.

I agree.

PD, are you a good persuasive speaker?

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Ok, here's your best-case scenario.

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I will make a Supersoulty vs. Nym90 map.

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I will make a Supersoulty vs. Nym90 map.

OK. We await with a mix of fear and anticipation...

Heh

I did this map not knowing who was going to win.  Also, I put my own percentage predictions, into this map, while in the PD one I did not.
Nym90--270
Supersoulty--268

Of couse, both candidates could campaign in certain states and I don't know anything about Supersoulty's VP, so several states are tossups.

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It looks very much like GWBFan is going to be his running mate. That would strengthen him in Georgia and the south. On the other hand having someone who changed parties twice and been running mate to a Dem candidate could hurt him. Actually, it is possible that centrist CM-supporters might be inclined against GWBFan b/c he dropped out like that. It would be unfair and untrue of course, but that's politics for you...

Oh, very interesting.  If Nym90 and Supersoulty indeed are the nominees, then GWBFan and I can dogfight over the South.  If that is the case, FL, TN, MS, AL, AR, KY, and VA are all tossups.
In the North, OH is a huge battleground for each side.

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OK, here comes my actual comments on the map...

I don't think NH would go Dem easily, Supersoulty is not THAT conservative, so I think he could be strong there. Also, he isa northeasterner and should be able to do allright in the northeast. On the other hand, that would probably hurt him in the south, so I agree with some states there going Dem. Not sure about which ones though. I thought Dems would stand a good chance in the steel states, not PA perhaps, but Ohio and WV should be states they could win. Just a few initial thought, is looks good.

Hmmm, I put PA, WV, and OH under Supersoulty because he is from there.  However, at least OH would be huge battleground state.  NH and MO may very well go GOP as well.  TN and NM could go Dem.

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Hang on a minute! My endorsement will win you guys West Virginia easily!

That is a point; however Supersoulty is from PA and may pull some WV miners and such to his side if he plays his cards right.

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Well, ehhhm...you have to remember that Harry did a prediction map, not a confidence map, so he didn't mark any tossups as tossups. Making it 270-268 is alomst as close as it gets, so in all fairness, it wasn't that biased. Both parties have a chance to win there. But I agree that Supersoulty-Nym90 would be close. I don't think it's biased to think that Nym90 would beat PD, since Nym90 is much more centrist.

This whole thread, though, just seems like a joke.  Democratic candidates making predictions about the election?  Gee, I wonder if they'll actually *have* a scenario where a Republican will win?  Why even bother?  Everyone already knows which candidate they're going to predict a win for, it's not like these maps add much of anything, in terms of productiveness - except that the Democratic vice presidential candidate, Harry, is out of touch with reality.

I'm not surprised by this - just thinking that if we're going to have predictions about the races, why not have an unbiased prediction?  These are Democrats, after all - why would they show anything other than a Dem winning?

here is my confidence map

In this the Dems take 233, GOP 232, and 73 tossups.
The election would be very close.
I do not believe I was biased in my predicting.  If I were biased, I would have put OH, WV, NM, and TN in the Dem column, giving Nym90 a comfortable 311 ev's.
Secondly, I did not know who was ahead when I submitted my prediction.  I predicted the states and percentages, then I found out that Nym90 had won by 2 electoral votes.
Thirdly, I an not out of touch with reality.  I know that this race would be very close and it came out about as close as it could have been.  I considered home states and prior voting patterns.  If you are so at arms about my picks, make your own map and we'll see.
I would appriciate it if you would not make attacks on me.

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What do you mean Harry, that Nym90 has already won the election by two electoral college votes? The election has yet to happen.

in my prediction

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PA is strong GOP because it was a tossup state in 2000 and this scenario has their Governor running for president.
AR is lean Dem because it is generally more liberal than the rest of the deep south and I would spend a lot of time campaining there, along with MS, LA, TN, MO, KY, AL, and FL.

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Having me on the ticket should bring Arkansas, Missouri, and Louisiana to the Dem side unless another candidate is also from the South.  Tennessee possibly too.