Peter Law dies.

[Ben.]

Peter Law the MP for MP for Blaenau Gwent has died.

Ran as an independent in 2005 and won Labour's safest seat in Wales, this means there will be a by-election - one would expect Labour to win it relatively easily but you can never be sure.

[Harry Hayfield]

Report from BBC News Online:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/wales/4898824.stm

As of course as a sitting MP and AM, this means a double by-election in the constituency of Blaenau Gwent (the last time this happened in the devolved institutions was in Glasgow, Anniesland when Donald Dewar died).

General Election 2005 (Turnout: 66%)
Ind 58%, Lab 33%, Lib Dem 4%, Plaid 2%, Con 2%, UKIP 1%

Assembly Election 2003 (Turnout: 37%)
Lab 70%, Lib Dem 11%, Plaid 10%, Con 6%, UKIP 4%

[afleitch]

His victory was one of the most exciting moment sof election night and its sad to hear of his passing.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I'm not suprised to hear this, although it's quite sad all the same... the odd thing is... Jones was kicked upstairs the other day.

As for by-elections; with over 90% of votes last election cast for Labour movement candidates of some form (either Independent Labour or official Labour) and all other parties losing their deposits, this shouldn't be hard to predict.
Methinks that this time round an all woman shortlist won't be chosen.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Something to note; Labour had a candidate for the Assembly elections already; John Hopkins (the leader of Blaenau Gwent CBC).

[Serenity Now]

Sad to hear - Hadn't he been suffering from cancer for some time?

He helped make the election particularly interesting, and I'd always thought that he would've eventually rejoined Labour after a few years.

[KEmperor]

That's a real shame, I remember that guy from election night.  I thought it was one of the more interesting stories.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Sad to hear - Hadn't he been suffering from cancer for some time?

Yes; he pulled of the election for a few days after he was diagnosed with a brain tumour. He later re-entered saying that he'd got an all clear.

He'd hardly turned up to vote in the Commons since his election; he turned up for a few of the controversial bills and all that, but that was about it (he also sent a lot of written questions to ministers). As at his election he'd indicated that he intended to be an active M.P, it was quite obvious that he was ill.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

According to the BBC, Law found out before he died that Labour will not use an all-women shortlist in Blaenau Gwent again.

[minionofmidas]

(is not good at making comments about recently died politicians)

[Alcon]

(is not good at making comments about recently died politicians)

I'm no good with recently dead politicians either, but I remember this guy, and he seemed quite interesting.  It's a shame; I did not even know he was this sick.

[Peter]

This doesn't come as too much of a surprise, and I am actually surprised he lasted this long. That appears to be the last of the three MPs who were ill when elected, and yields our 4th by-election of the Parliament. We look set to overtake the last Parliament's rather sparse distribution of by-elections at only 6. Hopefully the rest will be kickings upstairs as opposed to our run of 4 deaths.

Labour already had selected a candidate for the Assembly election in 2007, one John Hopkins. I imagine he will simply run in the by-election for the Assembly seat.

The Blaenau Gwent People's Voice Group, which is basically the group of activists that helped get Law in the first time are apparently going to put a candidate up in one or both elections. We'll see where that goes.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

People's Voice already have a candidate for the 2007 Assembly elections (reasonably well known locally, but not to the degree Hopkins is) and he worked for Law during the election. Whether they'll be able to find a candidate for Law's Westminster seat is more confusing; they don't have many members (about 90 or so) and most are (IIRC) quite old.
How well they'll do is a different question; at least second in anything they run in, obviously, but beyond that it's hard to tell. Whether they can survive Law's death, expected as it was, is also uncertain.
Independent groups need a leader or a big issue or they fail (I know this for I lived in rural Shropshire for over a decade).

[Harry Hayfield]

I'm not suprised to hear this, although it's quite sad all the same... the odd thing is... Jones was kicked upstairs the other day.

As for by-elections; with over 90% of votes last election cast for Labour movement candidates of some form (either Independent Labour or official Labour) and all other parties losing their deposits, this shouldn't be hard to predict.
Methinks that this time round an all woman shortlist won't be chosen.

I would remind you of Merthyr Tydfil 1972 when another Independent Labour MP was elected at Election 1970. In the by-election Lab +20%, Plaid +26%

[Harry Hayfield]

Breaking News from BBC News 24

The widow of Peter Law is alleging that Labour dangled a peerage in front of Mr. Law in return for him not standing in the general election.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Labour have denied it. To be honest both Official and Independent Labour (ie; Law) acted pretty badly last May...

Guy that worked for Law will be running in one of the by-elections; I get the impression he won't decide which until the Labour candidate for the Westminster by-election is announced.

Don't be suprised if this goes: Lab gain from I Lab, I Lab hold.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It's emerged (via the mouth of Dai Davies) that Law's widow might run in one of the two races. Davies himself has switched to saying that he his *considering* running in one of them, a contrast to what he seemed to be saying earlier (ie; that he was deciding which seat to run for).

I think Davies is from Ebbw Vale, but I'm not sure about Trish Law. Hopkins is from Brynmawr. I think Labour will probably run someone from Tredegar for the Westminster seat, but they might try to undercut Law's old vote by going for someone from Ebbw Vale or Abertillery.

[Peter]

Labour shortlist for Westminster seat released

A few interesting names, including two former MPs and a former AM. It really does depend on whether People's Voice are going to challenge as to what you can get away with.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

That's... some list... I'm not sure where the two ex-M.P's were from orginally; I think J.O. Jones was from somewhere in the Valleys originally, but I'm not sure about Edwards. No idea about Evans.
Vaughan is from the other end of the Valleys, but he's high profile and has a good reputation from what I recall... Smith is fairly well known I think, as is Antoniw. McCarthy represents a ward in the Abertillery area (which went very strongly for Law IIRC) so would be interesting just for that... some of the other candidates look interesting (and if this is being done as democratically as Welsh Labour claim, you never know who might win...) as well. One is a union man from Ebbw Vale (which went strongly for Law and is also Law's agent's base) and one is a distant relative of Nye Bevan. Another was a candidate in Brecon & Radnor a while ago.
Will have to check were some of them live...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Been some strange developments in recent days. The whole nasty row over whether or not Law was offered a peerage got a lot nastier with the leader of Plaid Cymru accusing (in the House of Commons) Peter Hain of offering Law a seat in the Lords. Hain was not in the House at the time, and was actually at a family funeral. Which Llwyd was well aware of.  Shades of Newt Gingrich at his worst...

A TV interview has surfaced in which Law denied being offered a peerage, but his widow claims that this should not be taken seriously because he was "ill and confused" at the time. Call me a cynic if you want (and I really don't like saying this), but I find it hard not to look at her reaction to that and remember that she is or was seriously considering running in one of the by-electoions.

And just now, Labour has formally apologised for imposing an all-woman shortlist on the Blaenau Gwent CLP.
According to BBC Wales, steps will be taken in the next few days to bring several people expelled for supporting Law, back into the Party.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Labour have picked Owen Smith for the Westminster by-election.

Meanwhile the police have confirmed that there are not investigating the peerage claim, and have indicated that they think it's a load of ****.

And as a further twist, the Mayor of Blaenau Gwent has left Labour because of the way Law was treated.