Thai Parliament dissolved, new elections underway (user search)
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  Thai Parliament dissolved, new elections underway (search mode)
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Author Topic: Thai Parliament dissolved, new elections underway  (Read 4620 times)
WMS
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,557


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -1.22

« on: April 03, 2006, 04:03:54 PM »

Pressure against him will continue though.

Who else thinks Thaksin will be gone by the time opebo returns to Thailand?

If he wins the election...why would he resign? He might fall on corruption charges if those can be proved, but Thai Rak Thai ain't gonna fall on their swords just because their opponents want them to...

And didn't the king support the holding of elections and NOT Thaksin resigning?
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WMS
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,557


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -1.22

« Reply #1 on: April 03, 2006, 04:08:16 PM »

What the hell else was he supposed to do?

Didn't BRTD and opebo hold out hopes of the king forcing Thaksin to resign?
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WMS
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,557


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -1.22

« Reply #2 on: April 03, 2006, 04:42:08 PM »

Some observations.

1.  According to Washington Post, Thai Rak Thai candidates were unopposed in a majority of districts because of the boycotte.  So, losing was not on the agenda anyway.

2. To be elected a candidate needs, besides a simple plurality of votes cast, the support of, at least, 20% of the total votes eligible. Thus, if the turnout is under 20% even an unopposed candidate is not elected.

3. In many of the districts where Thai Rak Thai is unopposed, it seems, the turnout is under 20%, so elections would have to be repeated there.

4. By Thai law, the parliament cannot be constituted, nor the government formed unless all members are elected.

5. If the opposition manages to repeatedly hold the turnout in at least 1 district to under 20%, it seems, there is a real constitutional crisis in the offing.

Didn't the Ukraine have this problem in its first set or two of elections? Smiley
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WMS
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,557


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -1.22

« Reply #3 on: April 03, 2006, 04:47:47 PM »

Some observations.

1.  According to Washington Post, Thai Rak Thai candidates were unopposed in a majority of districts because of the boycotte.  So, losing was not on the agenda anyway.

2. To be elected a candidate needs, besides a simple plurality of votes cast, the support of, at least, 20% of the total votes eligible. Thus, if the turnout is under 20% even an unopposed candidate is not elected.

3. In many of the districts where Thai Rak Thai is unopposed, it seems, the turnout is under 20%, so elections would have to be repeated there.

4. By Thai law, the parliament cannot be constituted, nor the government formed unless all members are elected.

5. If the opposition manages to repeatedly hold the turnout in at least 1 district to under 20%, it seems, there is a real constitutional crisis in the offing.

Didn't the Ukraine have this problem in its first set or two of elections? Smiley

It was not uncommon in early post-Soviet elections - in Russia, as well as in the Ukraine - not to have all seats filled on the election day, even after the run-off (either because of the low turnout, or because of the large "non-of-the-above" vote). But this never really was a problem, since you only needed a simple majority of members elected for the parliament to be constituted. The Thai peculiarity seems to be that you cannot form the government unless ALL members are elected.

Ah, thanks. Smiley And now the boycott strategy makes more sense...
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WMS
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,557


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -1.22

« Reply #4 on: April 04, 2006, 02:00:57 PM »

Hmm...will the opposition accept another electoral loss to Thai Rak Thai even if Thanksin isn't its leader?
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