South Australia-18/3/06

[Platypus]

South Australian election on Saturday the 18th of March.

The ABC's electoral analyst, Antony Green, can't be beaten. Here are his views:

While Mike Rann's Labor government looks set to be returned with an increased majority at the 2006 election, it is worth remembering how perilously close Rann came to missing out on ever serving as Premier of South Australia.

The tables below show the results of the 2002 election, when the Labor Party fell one seat short of obtaining a majority in its own right. Labor had three more seats than the Liberal Party, but the balance of power lay with four cross bench members. Of those four, one was a National Party MP (Karlene Maywald), two were former Liberal MPs who had won re-election as Independents (Bob Such, Peter Lewis), and the fourth an Independent elected after missing out on Liberal Party pre-selection (Rory McEwen). To become Premier, Mike Rann needed to find one extra vote from amongst this unpromising material.

The surprise solution Rann produced was an agreement with Peter Lewis, the most conservative of the four and a man who had served as a loyal though at times idiosyncratic Liberal MP for more than two decades. It was a remarkable deal, but one that has receded from memory as Rann's dominance of state politics has grown. Since 2002, both Maywald and McEwen have been lured into the cabinet, and when Lewis eventually outlived his usefulness, Such took on his role as Speaker.

Given Labor had three more seats than the Liberals, it was not surprising that one of the four cross benchers would see an advantage in putting Labor in office. In the outgoing parliament, the Liberal Party had more seats than Labor but no permanent majority. In a worse position after the election, the Kerin government could have staggered on, but at some point would probably have been defeated, and under the fixed term parliament rules, produced a 'baton change' to a Labor administration. But had Kerin survived the immediate election aftermath, then Rann would have been unlikely to retain the Labor leadership given his party's indifferent election result. Rann may dominate state politics today, but chances of him ever being Premier were on a knife edge in the weeks following the 2002 election.


There is tonnes more, which can be found at http://abc.net.au/elections/sa/2006/guide/summary.htm

[Platypus]

Basically, Labor will beat the Liberals; the question is if it can form a majority in doing so. My guess is that it can. Labor is unpopular, the Liberals moreso, but the Premier, Mike Rann, has pretty good personal popularity.

[WMS]

They redistrict after every election. Awesome.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

How are things going now?

[Platypus]

A minority government is shaping up as a possibility, but the Liberals certainly won't win a majority gov't. My guess is on a very slim ALP majority. The campaign hasn't been that great for them, but the ibs haven't really been able to capitalise on it.

[Platypus]

Election is tomorrow; the Libs will lose. The qustion is if the ALP will win, and I expect it to get a majority.

[Kevinstat]

Looks like an ALP landslide.  With 76% of the votes counted, the ALP is predicted to win 30 of the 47 seats, with the Liberals expected to win 14 seats and others expected to win three. 

See http://abc.net.au/elections/sa/2006/ , in particular http://www.abc.net.au/elections/sa/2006/news/stories/1595270.htm?elections/sa/2006/ and http://www.abc.net.au/elections/sa/2006/news/stories/1595255.htm?elections/sa/2006/ .

[Platypus]

whilst it had been slowly clarifying that Labor would win, and perhaps win by a large margin, i'm still surprised by the result-almost two thirds of the seats is simply amazing.

It seems that the federal/state split is stronger then ever-strong ALP governments in QLD, VIC, SA, NT and TAS; and WA, NSW and the ACT are also all in ALP hands. Then, of course, the coalitoon controls both houses in the federal parliament

[Platypus]

BTW, the Liberals had a 14.6% swing against them for the upper house. A single-issue party that wants to ban pokies had a 20.2% swing towards it, and because the ALP had a swing towards it, I presume the extreme majority of that swing was provided by people who voted Liberal in the last election.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It seems as though Graham Gunn (who is, or at least was, the longest serving sitting M.P at any level in Australia) has lost.

[Cubby]

BTW, the Liberals had a 14.6% swing against them for the upper house. A single-issue party that wants to ban pokies had a 20.2% swing towards it, and because the ALP had a swing towards it, I presume the extreme majority of that swing was provided by people who voted Liberal in the last election.

Whats a pokie?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It seems as though Graham Gunn (who is, or at least was, the longest serving sitting M.P at any level in Australia) has lost.

Now it looks like he might have hung on

[minionofmidas]

Is there a map somewhere?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It seems as though Graham Gunn (who is, or at least was, the longest serving sitting M.P at any level in Australia) has lost.

Now it looks like he might have hung on

Update: Gunn now trails by 84 votes.

[Platypus]

BTW, the Liberals had a 14.6% swing against them for the upper house. A single-issue party that wants to ban pokies had a 20.2% swing towards it, and because the ALP had a swing towards it, I presume the extreme majority of that swing was provided by people who voted Liberal in the last election.

Whats a pokie?

Slot machine.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It seems as though Graham Gunn (who is, or at least was, the longest serving sitting M.P at any level in Australia) has lost.

Now it looks like he might have hung on

Update: Gunn now trails by 84 votes.

Update: Gunn now trails by just TWO votes...