Major campaign underway to nullify Electoral College

[zorkpolitics]

In what is probably the most serious challenge to the way the Electoral College functions in 200 years, a collection of former officials have banded together to make the Electoral College state by state system irrelevant.  They are campaigning to get enough states to award their electoral votes to the National Popular vote winner, rather than their state winner. Thus guaranteeing that the national popular vote winner will win.
Clearly this would shift focus from campaigns in battleground states, to campaigns to maximizing turnout in each parties safe states. 
It would not be surprising if that kind of a campaign was even more polarized than current campaigns, with candidates pandering to their base and ignoring swing voters.

see:
http://www.nationalpopularvote.com/npv/

[zorkpolitics]

One could make a case that this kind of alliance among the states violates Article I, section 10 of the constitution:

No state shall enter into any treaty, alliance or confederation;

[zorkpolitics]

This idea won't go away and is even starting to gain a little momentum:
National Popular Vote plan cleared the Colorado Senate on April 17th.

Bills have been introduced in California, Illinois, Louisiana and Missouri. California and Missouri have scheduled hearings for April 25, and the senate and house bills in Illinois have 25 sponsors, including leading Republicans, Democrats and independents.

[zorkpolitics]

May Update:
April 25-The California Assembly Elections and Redistricting Committee today approved National Popular Vote's bill (AB 2948) to enact the “Agreement Among the States to Elect the President by National Popular Vote” in California.  Would Arnold veto a CA bill?

http://www.nationalpopularvote.com/npv/

Still, no state has yet passed a bill for the national poplar vote

[zorkpolitics]

The CA Senate and House, voting alone party lines, have passed the so called National Popular Vote Plan.  It is now expected to go to Schwarzenegger for signing before the Nov.

http://www.sacunion.com/pages/state_capitol/articles/8399/

This would make CA the first state to join the compact.  Additonal states are expected to pass it in 2007.
There is only a very slim chance it could go into effect for the 2008 election, but if it did the election campaign would change dramatically.  No more swing states, all campaigning would be focused on the largest states, and the largest media markets.

[zorkpolitics]

The state Senates in HI and CO have passed national popular vote bills.  Legislation has been intoduced in nearly all 50 states, so it looks like this has a good chance of success.

I will miss the fun of tracking EV state by state,,,,,

[zorkpolitics]

The MD law has some nice opportunities for controversy.

The MD law requires each state election official to send out a count, but does not require that it be the official Certified State total that is sent to the National Archives.  Thus, a partisan Election Official could send the compact one total while the Governor certifies a different total.  Then what happens?

What happens if a state has not completed its count (Hawaii finished a recount in 1960 2 weeks after the Electoral college met), does the law again allow the election official to choose what ever count he feels like?  What happens if an election is close and recounts occur in all 50 states (Kennedy won in 1960 by less than 1 vote per precinct)? 

Furthermore, all the provisions only apply to “member states”, what happens if a non-member state delays finalizing its states’ total?   

What happens if a state decides to award 100,000 (or 100,000,000) bonus popular votes to that state’s official winner?  Doesn’t this mean any single state could select the President?

The MD law prohibits any other member state from withdrawing within 6 months of the election, can one state prohibit another state from passing a law? 

[zorkpolitics]

Hawaii has now passed the bill, for a total of 50 EV from four states, 200 EV left to go. 
The four states  that have passed the compact are solidly Democratic states, pretty good proof this is a partisan scheme.

[zorkpolitics]

The pace to nullify the EC is picking up, so far this year:

Colorado House Passes National Popular Vote Bill
Oregon House Passes National Popular Vote Bill
New Mexico House Passes National Popular Vote Bill
Arkansas House, Washington House, and Vermont Senate Pass National Popular Vote Bill


I think there is a good chance this plan will be in effect by 2012

[zorkpolitics]

Mass becomes the 6th state to pass this Compact, when the Governor signed it into law today.  The six states account for 73 EV of the 270 needed to trigger the compact.
I still think its unconstitutional since this compact effectively nullifies all the EV of the non-compact states.  And destroys one aspect of the Federal-State balance of power embedded into the Constitution, since states would no longer matter only the popular vote when electing the President
If enough states sign on I guess we'll need to wait to see what the Supremes say.

[zorkpolitics]

The SC should declare it unconstitutional, but historically they have avoided "political" issues, so they may refuse to take a case.  Then again there is Gore v Bush as precedent for intervention, so perhaps they would take the case.
I expect that if they did they do take the case they would strike it down.

The plain language of the constitution would seem to invalidate this compact, (unless Congress approves it):

Article 1 section 8:
"No State shall, without the Consent of Congress, lay any duty of Tonnage, keep Troops, or Ships of War in time of Peace, enter into any Agreement or Compact with another State,"

[zorkpolitics]

Earlier in this thread it was claimed:
"As was lengthily debated already in this thread, the only portion of the NPVIC that makes it Constitutionally suspect are the limitations on State withdrawal once it goes into force. "

There is another Constitutional argument against the Compact. 
The 12th Amendment provides a Constitutional process if no single candidate gets a majority of EVs, such as could occur when three candidates split EVs.   This compact makes it impossible for the 12th Amendment to ever be used.  Thus the states in the Compact, through state laws, prevent all states (and citizens) from using a Constitutional process.   I do not think states can pass laws to get around Constitutional protections.

Although the 12th amendment has not been used since the early 1800's it just might affect the 2012 race.  If 2012 is a Palin-Obama contest, there are strong hints Bloomberg would run, and with his Billions to spend, might win enough states to prevent anyone from winning 270 EV, and hence the President would be determined via the 12th Amendment.

[zorkpolitics]

The Electoral College nullification Compact loses 2 EV. 
With new reapportionment, the 6 states + DC that have passed the Compact collectivley lost 2 EV: MA-1, NJ-1, IL-1, but WA +2.  So far states (+DC) .

So imagine if the compact had 270 EV and the states implement it requirment to award votes by popular vot ein 2012 and  then the compact drops back to 268, what happens?  Chaos!

[zorkpolitics]

The constitution is clear:
"Each State shall appoint, in such Manner as the Legislature thereof may direct, a Number of Electors, equal to the whole Number of Senators and Representatives to which the State may be entitled in the Congress:...."

While the Compact says: "a withdrawal occurring six months or less before the end of a President’s term shall not become effective until a President or Vice President shall have been qualified to serve the next term."

So can a current state legislature bind the hands of a future Legislature?  Will the Compact's requirement that any changes by states made 6 months before an election must be delayed to a future election hold up in Court if a state makes a change effective less than 6 months before an election?

If the states truly want to go to a National Popular Vote, then have the states pass a Constitutional Amendment rather than pass this cute legal trick to circumvent the Constitution.

[zorkpolitics]

Analysis of why this would cause unintended consequences:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2018/05/25/popular_vote_plan_would_do_more_harm_than_good.html