Italy

[andrewa]

Senate and House have the same power; each law need the majority in each chamber to be approved.
Senators for life are former republic presidents or persons very important for Italy in scientific, art, business (Gianni Agnelli , owner of Fiat was) nominated by President of Republic. Normally they are seven, eight.
It is possible a different majority in Senate and House because:
in Senate votes people older than 25, in House older than 18.
Senate has a proportional system with majority premium at region level (in each region, who win have 55% of seats)
House has a proportional system with majority premium at national level (one vote majority = 55% seats)
Centerright jerrymandering in Senate didn't function, Berlusconi's coalition has 350000 voters majority in Senate, but lost it (due to expatriate voters, another Berlusconi invention)   

[they don't love you like i love you]

Anyone who still believes in the "liberal media" should've read the AP story on this I read in today's StarTrib. It basically described Berlusconi as a US ally holding against an opposition block that "includes Communists". Yeah, and no mention of Berlusconi's not-so-reformed fascist Mussolini loving coalition partners, or the wonderfully racist Lega Nord that make up a hell of a lot larger part of his coalition than the Communists do of Prodi's. And of course ignores the fact that the Communists only reluctantly came aboard. And of course it then narrowly glossed over Berlusconi's corruption and then mentioned Berlusconi accusing Prodi of being used by the Communists to undermine democracy (despite the fact there is no indictation of the Communist Refoundation ever being undemocratic). You'd expect Italy to become a new Soviet republic under a Prodi government juding only from that article.

I'd take the "Northern League" long before I sided with Communists frankly!

Do you know anything about the Italian Communists?

[YoMartin]

Senate and House have the same power; each law need the majority in each chamber to be approved.
Senators for life are former republic presidents or persons very important for Italy in scientific, art, business (Gianni Agnelli , owner of Fiat was) nominated by President of Republic. Normally they are seven, eight.
It is possible a different majority in Senate and House because:
in Senate votes people older than 25, in House older than 18.
Senate has a proportional system with majority premium at region level (in each region, who win have 55% of seats)
House has a proportional system with majority premium at national level (one vote majority = 55% seats)
Centerright jerrymandering in Senate didn't function, Berlusconi's coalition has 350000 voters majority in Senate, but lost it (due to expatriate voters, another Berlusconi invention)   

Symmetric bicameralism where both chambers are elected by different constituencies is a recipe for instability. Luckily both chambers have the same majority, but it´s very slim in the senate (small parties within L´Unione will have tremendous veto power). I don´t think Prodi will last much. Maybe he´ll be able to call elections if he faces any favorable scenario (but with a stagnant economy that´s not likely).

It´s funny that his idea (or Tremaglia´s idea) of allowing foreign vote had such consequences. Couldn´t he foresee that? He´s now 40.000 votes down here...

[they don't love you like i love you]

Why's the voting age in the Senate 25? I find that just idiotic. The fact there's a government body in a Western country I'd be ineligible to vote for just seems really odd to me.

[YoMartin]

Anyone who still believes in the "liberal media" should've read the AP story on this I read in today's StarTrib. It basically described Berlusconi as a US ally holding against an opposition block that "includes Communists". Yeah, and no mention of Berlusconi's not-so-reformed fascist Mussolini loving coalition partners, or the wonderfully racist Lega Nord that make up a hell of a lot larger part of his coalition than the Communists do of Prodi's. And of course ignores the fact that the Communists only reluctantly came aboard. And of course it then narrowly glossed over Berlusconi's corruption and then mentioned Berlusconi accusing Prodi of being used by the Communists to undermine democracy (despite the fact there is no indictation of the Communist Refoundation ever being undemocratic). You'd expect Italy to become a new Soviet republic under a Prodi government juding only from that article.

I'd take the "Northern League" long before I sided with Communists frankly!

Do you know anything about the Italian Communists?

Even in the early 30´s (way before "eurocommunism" existed) the old PCI called for a democratic way towards socialism. PSI was actually more extreme, if I´m not mistaken.

[andrewa]

Why's the voting age in the Senate 25? I find that just idiotic. The fact there's a government body in a Western country I'd be ineligible to vote for just seems really odd to me.

Hard to say. After fascism, we had the fear of dictature. So we choosed perfect bycameralism in order to make more difficult a dictature.
The Senate replies the old Senate of the King, every member must have 40 years or more. And every voter of Senate must be "wise".
Now, the majority in Senate depends by this man (Leslie Nielse lookalike),
elected in Paraguay with "Italiani per il Sudamerica"

 

[YoMartin]

I think he´s from Argentina (http://www.infobae.com/notas/nota.php?Idx=248690&IdxSeccion=100551). It´s quite ridiculous that a guy who hasn´t lived in Italy since 1942 holds balance in the Senate...

Most federal parliamentary countries don´t have symmetric bicameralism. Why should Italy have it? Chronic government instability is not very good to avoid dictatorships... (BTW, I´m still not sure whether both chambers can censor a government).

[ag]

I think he´s from Argentina (http://www.infobae.com/notas/nota.php?Idx=248690&IdxSeccion=100551). It´s quite ridiculous that a guy who hasn´t lived in Italy since 1942 holds balance in the Senate...

Actually, he is not holding the ballance. The elected senators will be divided left 158 right 156 independent (argentinian) 1. In any case, he seems to have announced he'll seat w/ the left, making it 159 to 156 (w/ 7 non-elected life senators holding the ballance - though these are still, mostly, from the left).

Berlusconi, I think, has asked for a "grand coalition"; the left, naturally, doesn't want it. In any case, recount is on.

[Middle-aged Europe]

1) Berlusconi refuses to concede defeat.
2) Berlusconi demands a recount, citing alleged "irregularities".
3) Berlusconi calls for a Grand coalition, "like in Germany".


Would it be the other way around (Berlusconi having won a slim majority in both houses) I seriously doubt that he would agree to a recount or even call for a Grand coalition. He clings to the power and is just clutching at the proverbial straw now.

And would he know something about German politics, he would be aware of the fact that Grand coalitions are only formed as a last resort when you have no other choice. This is not the case in Italy. There is no election stalemate. Prodi got the majority of seats in both houses (although a very razor-thin one in the Senate).

[minionofmidas]

It seems that the "round up to 55% in the regions" thingy had no net effect whatsoever - it won the right 4 Senators in Piemonte, Lazio and Puglie, and won the left 4 Senators in Liguria, Marche and Campania.
What did affect the partisan balance is the fact that smaller regions are somewhat overrepresented there (Berlusconi won 7 regions to the Left's 13, but they include 5 of the 6 or 7 largest ones), plus the different election law for Trentino-Alto Adige Senators, which probably won the left a seat.

[minionofmidas]

What is "Per Italia nel Mundo"? They ran in all the foreign regions and narrowly won the third South American House seat over the UDC. They seem to be included in the Center-Right totals for the House.

Interesting thing I noticed...
In the Senate race (I suppose House is similar) for North America, the Unione polled 32,126 votes to Forza Italia's 25,906.
From Canada the Unione got 15,425 votes and FI 8578.
From the US FI got 15,461 votes and L'Unione 15,148.
(And from Mexico etc etc, L'Unione got 1654 and FI 1867.)

[minionofmidas]

1) Berlusconi refuses to concede defeat.
2) Berlusconi demands a recount, citing alleged "irregularities".

He is getting a recount... of ballots marked in some way but judged invalid. There are 39,000 of these for the House (and 43,000 for the Senate). Berlusconi is down 25,000 in the House - and of course the vast majority of these ballots are really invalid. Chance of this recount changing anything - exactly 0%. For the Senate, it sort of depends how these votes are concentrated. The Left won Campania by just 0.5 - if that could somehow be overturned the right would gain four Senators off the Left. Chance of this happening - almost exactly, but perhaps not quite, 0%.

[YoMartin]

What is "Per Italia nel Mundo"? They ran in all the foreign regions and narrowly won the third South American House seat over the UDC. They seem to be included in the Center-Right totals for the House.

Per Italia Nel Mondo is current Minister Mirko Tremaglia´s list. He was behind the reform that allowed voting in foreign countries, so it´s natural he had some scheme organized. On the other side, the As. It. Sudamerica did incredibly well, coming third while running just in one region. They said they will support any coalition able to form government; that means they´ll deliver plenty of pork to their constituents (considering it got more than half its votes in Argentina, I certainly expect to benefit from that ).

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True. I was thinking that they got a seat that would have gone to Forza Italia, but it would anyway stay 158-157. I´m not counting appointed senators for one reason: when a chamber starts to have real powers (as it looks now for the italian senate), there´s an increasing pressure to eliminate non-elected members, or at least to cast doubts on their legitimacy to be the ones holding the balance in any vote. It´s an unusual trend to have a powerful senate with non-elected members.

[they don't love you like i love you]

Wow. Berlusconi is quite the sore loser.

Too bad the Prodi government probably won't last a year. Hopefully this is enough time to get Berlusconi out of Parliament and behind bars.

[Michael Z]

Wow. Berlusconi is quite the sore loser.

Hardly surprising, though.

[ATFFL]

[CARLHADYEN]He should hire Dean Logan to do the recount for him.[/CARLHAYDEN]

[Gabu]

[CARLHADYEN]He should hire Dean Logan to do the recount for him.[/CARLHAYDEN]

I bet Prodi won King County!

OMGLOL

[they don't love you like i love you]

How well did the Northern League do in the south? Did they do particularly well in any reasons?

I can't decide whose worse, Northern League or National Alliance...

[minionofmidas]

Lega Nord (including Movimento per l'Autonomia) took 3 Chamber and 1 or 2 Senate seats in Sicily ... but no other seats south of Bologna.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Any news on recounts?

[Middle-aged Europe]

Recounting the 80,000 invalid ballots will take a few more days, I think. 

Berlusconi also tried to initiate the recount of one million additional ballots, but in order to do so he would have required the authorization from the Italian president (which he refused to give, because he saw no reason for this).

[minionofmidas]

The Interior Ministry has just corrected itself. There never were 80,000 disputed ballots to begin with, just 8000. Silvio hasn't conceded, of course - nor will he, ever, if past conduct is anything to go by - but several members of his government have.
Of course, Berlusconi has a battle on his hands to hold his coalition together ... and his party in existence and himself in the political focus. He knows they won't imprison the opposition leader. Like Pinochet in his army head days, he can't afford to retire.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Of course, Berlusconi has a battle on his hands to hold his coalition together ...

Who'll leave first? Northern League or the right wing of the old DC's (whatever they call themselves these days) ?

[minionofmidas]

Of course, Berlusconi has a battle on his hands to hold his coalition together ...

Who'll leave first? Northern League or the right wing of the old DC's (whatever they call themselves these days) ?

UDC.
The point where it would get really dangerous for Berlusconi is when Forza Italia starts falling apart - possibly by defections to UDC. Certainly some UDC grandees are dreaming of resurrecting the DC out of FI's ruins (and their own party, and the tiny DC-NPSI, and the currently Left-aligned UDEUR and perhaps IdV, the Di Pietro slate) once Berlusconi is gone.
The Lega is not really dangerous, they're purely verbal radicals. But AN might conceivably leave - Fini certainly would hope to take over considerable portions of FI with Berlusconi out of the picture...

[Middle-aged Europe]

The Interior Ministry has just corrected itself. There never were 80,000 disputed ballots to begin with, just 8000.

According to the Ministry of Interior, there are only 2131 disputed ballots for the Chamber of Deputies and 3135 ballots for the Senate now. It seems the recount is more or less irrelevant , since the result of the election couldn't change anyway with this low number of disputed ballots.