Bush approval rating at 34% approval, 59% disapproval

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

34% approve, 59% disapprove

CBS News Poll Feb. 22-26, 2006.

Bush war on terror
43% approve, 50% disapprove

Bush job approval
34% overall, 30% Iraq, 32% economy, 27% energy

Does Bush care about people like you?
A lot 17%, Some 30%, Not much/none 51%

Views of Bush
29% favorable, 53% unfavorable

Views of Cheney
18% favorable, 46% unfavorable

http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/pdf/poll_bush_022706.pdf

[DarthKosh]

Look out below.

[Moooooo]

1,018 respondents

Democrats - 409 - 40%
Republicans - 272 - 26%
Independents - 337 - 33%

No bias here....

[Beet]

1,018 respondents

Democrats - 409 - 40%
Republicans - 272 - 26%
Independents - 337 - 33%

No bias here....

Of course, people who disapprove of Bush are also more likely to claim to be Democrats, and less likely to claim to be Republicans, so we don't know what is endogenous and what isn't. This could very well be a poll of party identification. Of course, it's always better to see a poll with lots of people who claim to be Republicans yet disapprove of Bush.

[MODU]

CBS has usually ran low for Bush.  No big surprise by their numbers.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

CBS has usually ran low for Bush.  No big surprise by their numbers.

What bullsh**t, they once gave Bush a 90% approval, 5% disapproval rating. Bush's approval margin is only down 110 points. Keep the spin up, you IINO.

[MODU]

CBS has usually ran low for Bush.  No big surprise by their numbers.

What bullsh**t, they once gave Bush a 90% approval, 5% disapproval rating. Bush's approval margin is only down 110 points. Keep the spin up, you IINO.

hahaha . . . 110 points.  I like that.  *laughs*

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

CBS has usually ran low for Bush.  No big surprise by their numbers.

What bullsh**t, they once gave Bush a 90% approval, 5% disapproval rating. Bush's approval margin is only down 110 points. Keep the spin up, you IINO.

hahaha . . . 110 points.  I like that.  *laughs*

Appearantly you don't understand what approval margin means.

[Gabu]

1,018 respondents

Democrats - 409 - 40%
Republicans - 272 - 26%
Independents - 337 - 33%

No bias here....

Even if you re-weight it to 37-37-26, you still get the following:

Approve: 40.7%
Disapprove: 55.8%

It's entirely possible that this is one of those 1-in-20 things for polls, but it seems pretty clear that the simple fact that Democrats are oversampled is not the only thing that accounts for Bush's disapproval.

[Beet]

1,018 respondents

Democrats - 409 - 40%
Republicans - 272 - 26%
Independents - 337 - 33%

No bias here....

Even if you re-weight it to 37-37-26, you still get the following:

Approve: 40.7%
Disapprove: 55.8%

It's entirely possible that this is one of those 1-in-20 things for polls, but it seems pretty clear that the simple fact that Democrats are oversampled is not the only thing that accounts for Bush's disapproval.

But the reason that polls are generally not re-weighted this way is that partisan identification is just another question asked on the poll, rather than some objective measure like checking each person's registration (which would have its own problems). When party A's president in unpopular, respondents are less likely to claim to be members of party A, and independents may be more likely to claim to be members of party B. In any case, a respondent's self-reported party identification is highly unreliable. About two-thirds of people who claim to be independents are actually closest 'de facto' partisans.

As long as the original sample is as close to random as possible, it will be correct with the highest possible margin of error.

[MODU]

CBS has usually ran low for Bush.  No big surprise by their numbers.

What bullsh**t, they once gave Bush a 90% approval, 5% disapproval rating. Bush's approval margin is only down 110 points. Keep the spin up, you IINO.

hahaha . . . 110 points.  I like that.  *laughs*

Appearantly you don't understand what approval margin means.

Believe me son, I know what you mean.  I'm just laughing at you (yes at, not with). 

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

CBS has usually ran low for Bush.  No big surprise by their numbers.

What bullsh**t, they once gave Bush a 90% approval, 5% disapproval rating. Bush's approval margin is only down 110 points. Keep the spin up, you IINO.

hahaha . . . 110 points.  I like that.  *laughs*

Appearantly you don't understand what approval margin means.

Believe me son, I know what you mean.  I'm just laughing at you (yes at, not with). 

Do you have anything substantial to say? The fact is that CBS had Bush at 90% approval and 5% disapproval.

[Gabu]

1,018 respondents

Democrats - 409 - 40%
Republicans - 272 - 26%
Independents - 337 - 33%

No bias here....

Even if you re-weight it to 37-37-26, you still get the following:

Approve: 40.7%
Disapprove: 55.8%

It's entirely possible that this is one of those 1-in-20 things for polls, but it seems pretty clear that the simple fact that Democrats are oversampled is not the only thing that accounts for Bush's disapproval.

But the reason that polls are generally not re-weighted this way is that partisan identification is just another question asked on the poll, rather than some objective measure like checking each person's registration (which would have its own problems). When party A's president in unpopular, respondents are less likely to claim to be members of party A, and independents may be more likely to claim to be members of party B. In any case, a respondent's self-reported party identification is highly unreliable. About two-thirds of people who claim to be independents are actually closest 'de facto' partisans.

As long as the original sample is as close to random as possible, it will be correct with the highest possible margin of error.

Oh, I'm well aware of that.  I'm just saying that you can't discount this poll just because it appears that Democrats might be oversampled, because you still have a strong disapproval of Bush even if Democrats are equal to Republicans.

[??????????]

Sounds like JFraud ran this poll.

[Smash255]

I would say I agree with factor.  When an incumbent is popular more are going to state they are with that party tan they otherwise would, and when the Incumbent is unpopular than less will. 

Also they did do some weighting  37.43% Dem,  28.39% GOP, 34.18% Ind

Considering the fact that the turnout in 04 while higher than normal across the board, the departure from normal for the GOP was greater than the departure from normal for the Dems, and the point that the Factor made about party ID being impacted by the Incumbents overall popularity I would say that breakdown while possibly towards the upper limit I would say is reasonable ( I would say anywhere from a 7-10% Dem id advanatage should be expected with the current situation, and its appropiate that any weighting would fall into that range)

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Sounds like JFraud ran this poll.

Yes, I admit, it was me who ran the poll that showed that Bush had a 5% disapproval rating.

[Sam Spade]

Weighting is always a very chancey prospect in polling (witness Zogby), and I tend not to like it.  But it does have its advantages here and there.

Anyway, what I would say is that the drop in approvals is being mirrored by a couple of other polls at present, so I would tend to believe it's real. 

It appears like the ground that Bush made up at the end of the year, from 38%-40% to 43%-45% by reigniting conservative support is being lost again because of the port deal, probably to around the same 38%-40% level again, frankly.

And this can play into a poll without weighting in any number of ways.

Remember that when you ask the party ID question in a vacuum, you typically get 33%R, 33%D, 33% I.  As political interest grows, etc., you see Independents typically peel off one way or another.

Sure, the numbers look skewed as there are more Democrats than Republicans.  But this could be because more Republicans are identifying as Independents right now.  Or it could be because more Independents are identifying as Democrats.  Or it could be because Republicans are sulking and disencouraged by events and don't answer the phone or Democrats are energized and want to answer the phone.  Who knows?

Anyway, CBS typically has a good record in not trying to totally manipulate numbers to make a point (maybe to make a headline, but that is expected).  I can't say the same for you: Newsweek or Zogby (sh**t polls, imo)

But in the end, it is what it is.  A poll.  Not a news story, but that's an entirely different argument altogether.

[MODU]

CBS has usually ran low for Bush.  No big surprise by their numbers.

What bullsh**t, they once gave Bush a 90% approval, 5% disapproval rating. Bush's approval margin is only down 110 points. Keep the spin up, you IINO.

hahaha . . . 110 points.  I like that.  *laughs*

Appearantly you don't understand what approval margin means.

Believe me son, I know what you mean.  I'm just laughing at you (yes at, not with). 

Do you have anything substantial to say? The fact is that CBS had Bush at 90% approval and 5% disapproval.

Sure I do.  You just wouldn't recognize it nor process it in your mind.  After all, real (sane) people only view this as a 55% drop in approval rating, and not doubling the figure in a futile attempt to make it sound worse.  Of course, real (sane) people would also recognize the immediate post 9/11 poll figures are naturally skewed high due to "Americana," and not a real reflection of actual approval.

Again, it's a popularity poll.  You just wouldn't understand.

[J. J.]

1,018 respondents

Democrats - 409 - 40%
Republicans - 272 - 26%
Independents - 337 - 33%

No bias here....

Even if you re-weight it to 37-37-26, you still get the following:

Approve: 40.7%
Disapprove: 55.8%

It's entirely possible that this is one of those 1-in-20 things for polls, but it seems pretty clear that the simple fact that Democrats are oversampled is not the only thing that accounts for Bush's disapproval.

Ironically, when you reweigh the numbers, you get something close (actually slightly better) to the Cook results out today.  Let's here it for CBS's fair and balanced reporting.  :-)

[MODU]

1,018 respondents

Democrats - 409 - 40%
Republicans - 272 - 26%
Independents - 337 - 33%

No bias here....

Even if you re-weight it to 37-37-26, you still get the following:

Approve: 40.7%
Disapprove: 55.8%

It's entirely possible that this is one of those 1-in-20 things for polls, but it seems pretty clear that the simple fact that Democrats are oversampled is not the only thing that accounts for Bush's disapproval.

Ironically, when you reweigh the numbers, you get something close (actually slightly better) to the Cook results out today.  Let's here it for CBS's fair and balanced reporting.  :-)

WHAT?  How dare you say that about the right-winged CBS!  You American-hater. 

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Also note how much worse it gets if you drop off the joke Diageo/HL poll (which once had him with a net approval while everyone else had him down 10 points) and Fox (enough said). And even those have a net disapproval.

[MODU]

Also note how much worse it gets if you drop off the joke Diageo/HL poll (which once had him with a net approval while everyone else had him down 10 points) and Fox (enough said). And even those have a net disapproval.

Scientifically, you tend to drop the highest and lowest figures, not just the high ones.  The CBS poll is more of an outsider in this grouping than the Fox/OD poll is.

[minionofmidas]

CBS has usually ran low for Bush.  No big surprise by their numbers.

What bullsh**t, they once gave Bush a 90% approval, 5% disapproval rating. Bush's approval margin is only down 110 points. Keep the spin up, you IINO.

hahaha . . . 110 points.  I like that.  *laughs*

Appearantly you don't understand what approval margin means.

Believe me son, I know what you mean.  I'm just laughing at you (yes at, not with). 

Do you have anything substantial to say? The fact is that CBS had Bush at 90% approval and 5% disapproval.

Sure I do.  You just wouldn't recognize it nor process it in your mind.  After all, real (sane) people only view this as a 55% drop in approval rating, and not doubling the figure in a futile attempt to make it sound worse.  Of course, real (sane) people would also recognize the immediate post 9/11 poll figures are naturally skewed high due to "Americana," and not a real reflection of actual approval.

Again, it's a popularity poll.  You just wouldn't understand.

Stop insulting Americana. That's good music.

[MODU]

1,018 respondents

Democrats - 409 - 40%
Republicans - 272 - 26%
Independents - 337 - 33%

No bias here....

Another interesting point here (one 26% being Republican?). . . given the terrible polling by CBS, this could actually be good news for Bush (if he is even bothered by it).  Even if some of the Republicans voted against Bush, there is still a decent number of Independents and some Democrats approving of Bush.

(However, like always, in-term popularity polls mean nothing.)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

No, after the reweighting as done above his ratings are still dismal. That's not good news no matter how you slice it.