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Author Topic: Vorlon says "Hi" :)  (Read 11592 times)
The Vorlon
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« on: May 23, 2004, 01:02:06 pm »
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Hi Crew!

Just checking to make sure you didn't hold the election without me.. Wink

Been out on the road visiting a whole crop of friends along the US West Coast - Washington, Oregon, California... ( I love Oregon! )

Have my laptop with me and hit the odd wi-fi hotspot so I can still get my "political fix" now and then Smiley

Over the last week or so I have posted a bunch (ok... a few) polls in Dave's newly created polling section.  I tossed in a Virginia and a Ohio both of which are semi-interesting.  -

I did a semi breakdown of the last Fox News poll in that section. (more a first read than an actual "sit down and think") but at least there is something there.

Bottom line on the race right now is:

Kerry has an advantage over Bush if you ask a soft fuzzy non-specific question, where Bush has an advantage if you ask a hard, specific question.

For example, in the Fox poll, Kerry has a very modest lead on who would do a better job in Iraq, yet trails 2 to 1 on who has laid out a better "plan" on Iraq.

Kerry needs to get out some actual flesh on his positions.

On Iraq if he would make a speech that said...

"I will do the following on Iraq...
     A) ........
     B) ........
     C) ........"

If his plan made sense, I think he might make a fairly large gain in the polls.

Kerrys current "Turn it over to the UN" position is worse than nothing, it actually hurts him.

There is also a vague, uncrystalized feeling that Kerry could do better, but this has not yet risen to the point where people are willing to take a chance on him.  

In short their hopes do not yet exceed their fears about Kerry.

He has 5 1/2 months left to convince people.

Bush's base is (to an AMAZING degree) holding up very well, and Bush supporters still have higher intensity levels than Kerry's.

Should get another round of the public polls soon.

The private tracks are all showing that Bush has recovered a bit from the Iraq Prison matter, and has firmed up a tad.  

Pensylvania and Ohio are both behaving strangely.  Bush is doing very well in Florida.  Michigan seems to have tightened a bit.

Undecided have taken a bit of a jump.  I suspect much of it is just folks tuning out for the summer, but we will see in a few more weeks if they break one way or another.

Have not done any hard core anaylsis posts yet, but plan to when I get back, Dave's given me access and all (Thanks Dave!)

A whole whack of you have emailed specific questions which I have been (very) bad at responding to, but I am staying in Eugene (Oregon) tonight so I expect to be replying to a few of then at least, a lot of them are technical questions, so I may post a few of the answers as well if they are generic enough to be interesting.

Note on state polls:

Remember how I said before I left that

"It's summer, if the state poll doesn't say Mason-Dixon you should burn it".....

Hmmm...

Kerry down 12 in Wisconsin
Bush within 1 in California
Bush within 3 in New Jersey
Kerry up 7 in Ohio
Bush within 5 in Illinois...

Just a reminder....

"It's summer, if the state poll doesn't say Mason-Dixon you should burn it"..... Smiley

Take care, and all of you play nice Smiley

                                                     The Vorlon

PS - "The Vorlon" is the name of my cat, which is where I got the name for the forum.



« Last Edit: May 23, 2004, 01:25:04 pm by The Vorlon (On Vacation till May 31) »Logged

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ilikeverin
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« Reply #1 on: May 23, 2004, 01:06:54 pm »
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You're the all great one, teh Vorlon!  Cheesy
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tweed
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« Reply #2 on: May 23, 2004, 01:08:18 pm »
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Thanks for stopping in Ken!  See you next week
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« Reply #3 on: May 23, 2004, 04:04:42 pm »
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Great post Vorlon! And have fun on the rest of your trip man.
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« Reply #4 on: May 23, 2004, 06:33:52 pm »
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Hi Crew!

Just checking to make sure you didn't hold the election without me.. Wink

Been out on the road visiting a whole crop of friends along the US West Coast - Washington, Oregon, California... ( I love Oregon! )

Have my laptop with me and hit the odd wi-fi hotspot so I can still get my "political fix" now and then Smiley

Over the last week or so I have posted a bunch (ok... a few) polls in Dave's newly created polling section.  I tossed in a Virginia and a Ohio both of which are semi-interesting.  -

I did a semi breakdown of the last Fox News poll in that section. (more a first read than an actual "sit down and think") but at least there is something there.

Bottom line on the race right now is:

Kerry has an advantage over Bush if you ask a soft fuzzy non-specific question, where Bush has an advantage if you ask a hard, specific question.

For example, in the Fox poll, Kerry has a very modest lead on who would do a better job in Iraq, yet trails 2 to 1 on who has laid out a better "plan" on Iraq.

Kerry needs to get out some actual flesh on his positions.

On Iraq if he would make a speech that said...

"I will do the following on Iraq...
     A) ........
     B) ........
     C) ........"

If his plan made sense, I think he might make a fairly large gain in the polls.

Kerrys current "Turn it over to the UN" position is worse than nothing, it actually hurts him.

There is also a vague, uncrystalized feeling that Kerry could do better, but this has not yet risen to the point where people are willing to take a chance on him.  

In short their hopes do not yet exceed their fears about Kerry.

He has 5 1/2 months left to convince people.

Bush's base is (to an AMAZING degree) holding up very well, and Bush supporters still have higher intensity levels than Kerry's.

Should get another round of the public polls soon.

The private tracks are all showing that Bush has recovered a bit from the Iraq Prison matter, and has firmed up a tad.  

Pensylvania and Ohio are both behaving strangely.  Bush is doing very well in Florida.  Michigan seems to have tightened a bit.

Undecided have taken a bit of a jump.  I suspect much of it is just folks tuning out for the summer, but we will see in a few more weeks if they break one way or another.

Have not done any hard core anaylsis posts yet, but plan to when I get back, Dave's given me access and all (Thanks Dave!)

A whole whack of you have emailed specific questions which I have been (very) bad at responding to, but I am staying in Eugene (Oregon) tonight so I expect to be replying to a few of then at least, a lot of them are technical questions, so I may post a few of the answers as well if they are generic enough to be interesting.

Note on state polls:

Remember how I said before I left that

"It's summer, if the state poll doesn't say Mason-Dixon you should burn it".....

Hmmm...

Kerry down 12 in Wisconsin
Bush within 1 in California
Bush within 3 in New Jersey
Kerry up 7 in Ohio
Bush within 5 in Illinois...

Just a reminder....

"It's summer, if the state poll doesn't say Mason-Dixon you should burn it"..... Smiley

Take care, and all of you play nice Smiley

                                                     The Vorlon

PS - "The Vorlon" is the name of my cat, which is where I got the name for the forum.





Get back safely.
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Giant Saguaro
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« Reply #5 on: May 23, 2004, 07:02:37 pm »
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Hey, Vorlon.

Here's hoping the NC poll with Edwards on the ticket was one for the slabyard too...

That's good about Florida and Michigan - hope it holds. I think Bush will have better success in the Great Lakes than mid-atlantic.

Take care the rest of the way
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tweed
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« Reply #6 on: May 23, 2004, 07:20:33 pm »
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Here's hoping the NC poll with Edwards on the ticket was one for the slabyard too...

That was done by Mason-Dixon.
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Giant Saguaro
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« Reply #7 on: May 23, 2004, 07:37:26 pm »
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Here's hoping the NC poll with Edwards on the ticket was one for the slabyard too...

That was done by Mason-Dixon.

That was done by Mason-Dixon? Not cool.

Well with Kerry's tricks (trying to get votes off Ralph Nader, then trying get him to drop out, and finagling around with the convention date) hehe, maybe Bush will see if he can persuade NC to defer to SC, and then pick who SC picks.
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tweed
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« Reply #8 on: May 23, 2004, 07:52:58 pm »
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I don't think Kerry-Edwards would win NC, but if they made it competitive (within 5%, which is not impossible considering the mill people are pissed), Bush would have to spend money there.
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« Reply #9 on: May 23, 2004, 08:21:02 pm »
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the mill people arent pissed at bush....they are pissed at nafta.  last i checked, kerry (wisely) voted for nafta

the pseudo protectionism of john edwards is stupid.  it doesnt play well among the white collar workers in rdu and charlotte.  

im not a fan of john kerry, but at least he is a smart man.  he is smart enough to know that the protectionism that edwards speaks of is b.s.   therefore, edwards isnt going to be picked.
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« Reply #10 on: May 24, 2004, 07:08:23 am »
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WalterMitty,

Who is more likely to put restrictions on trade, Kerry or Bush?  No comparison.
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« Reply #11 on: May 24, 2004, 08:23:33 am »
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restrictions or no restrictions, those textile jobs arent coming back.  edwards is playing off their emotions.  basically, he is being dishonest.

as i often state, we need economic diversification in nc.  we cant depend on textiles and tobacco to carry us through the 21 century.

a lot of those displaced textile workers are going to have a hard time finding a job in the 21st century because they lack the education.  i just recently heard of one mill that shut down where 40% of its workers did not hold a high school degree.

we need an educated workforce before we cant attract good high paying jobs.
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Mort from NewYawk
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« Reply #12 on: May 24, 2004, 08:37:59 am »
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restrictions or no restrictions, those textile jobs arent coming back.  edwards is playing off their emotions.  basically, he is being dishonest.

as i often state, we need economic diversification in nc.  we cant depend on textiles and tobacco to carry us through the 21 century.

a lot of those displaced textile workers are going to have a hard time finding a job in the 21st century because they lack the education.  i just recently heard of one mill that shut down where 40% of its workers did not hold a high school degree.

we need an educated workforce before we cant attract good high paying jobs.

Sounds like Bill Clinton....

Which shows why Bill Clinton had traction against conservatives and Kerry won't.
« Last Edit: May 24, 2004, 08:39:12 am by Mort from NewYawk »Logged

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« Reply #13 on: May 24, 2004, 02:22:00 pm »
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restrictions or no restrictions, those textile jobs arent coming back.  edwards is playing off their emotions.  basically, he is being dishonest.

I don't see how you can say that, Edwards has opposed trade ever since his election to the senate.  I disagree with him vehemently on this position, but to say he is only against NAFTA because he thinks it helps him politically is outrageous.
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« Reply #14 on: May 24, 2004, 11:41:30 pm »
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PS - "The Vorlon" is the name of my cat, which is where I got the name for the forum.


As someone who knows where that name comes from, let me say that I have watched with vast amusement how everyone on the forum views you as a poll seer...how Vorlon-like indeed! Smiley

Watch out for Shadows... Cheesy
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #15 on: May 25, 2004, 05:28:38 pm »
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PS - "The Vorlon" is the name of my cat, which is where I got the name for the forum.


As someone who knows where that name comes from, let me say that I have watched with vast amusement how everyone on the forum views you as a poll seer...how Vorlon-like indeed! Smiley

Watch out for Shadows... Cheesy

Truth is a three edged sword.  Wink

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« Reply #16 on: May 25, 2004, 10:41:32 pm »
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PS - "The Vorlon" is the name of my cat, which is where I got the name for the forum.


As someone who knows where that name comes from, let me say that I have watched with vast amusement how everyone on the forum views you as a poll seer...how Vorlon-like indeed! Smiley

Watch out for Shadows... Cheesy

Truth is a three edged sword.  Wink



Who are you?

What do you want?

Wink
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« Reply #17 on: May 25, 2004, 10:42:25 pm »
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PS - "The Vorlon" is the name of my cat, which is where I got the name for the forum.


As someone who knows where that name comes from, let me say that I have watched with vast amusement how everyone on the forum views you as a poll seer...how Vorlon-like indeed! Smiley

Watch out for Shadows... Cheesy

Truth is a three edged sword.  Wink



Who are you?

What do you want?

Wink

Ugh, I guess I have to.

"Where are you going?"

"Do you have anything worth living for?"
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WMS
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« Reply #18 on: May 25, 2004, 10:49:39 pm »
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PS - "The Vorlon" is the name of my cat, which is where I got the name for the forum.


As someone who knows where that name comes from, let me say that I have watched with vast amusement how everyone on the forum views you as a poll seer...how Vorlon-like indeed! Smiley

Watch out for Shadows... Cheesy

Truth is a three edged sword.  Wink



Who are you?

What do you want?

Wink

Ugh, I guess I have to.

"Where are you going?"

"Do you have anything worth living for?"

Cheesy

Trying to remember...it's been a while since *it* was on...

"After fighting imperialism all my life, now I AM the expanding Russian frontier!"
"But with very nice borders."
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« Reply #19 on: May 04, 2005, 01:37:21 pm »
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Just how much did The Vorlon teach us all about polls?
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« Reply #20 on: June 16, 2005, 09:47:40 am »
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Don't delete this post, please...I need these two tables.

http://factfinder.census.gov/servlet/DTTable?_bm=y&-context=dt&-ds_name=DEC_2000_SF3_U&-CONTEXT=dt&-mt_name=DEC_2000_SF3_U_PCT019&-tree_id=4001&-redoLog=false&-all_geo_types=N&-geo_id=04000US01&-geo_id=04000US02&-geo_id=04000US04&-geo_id=04000US05&-geo_id=04000US06&-geo_id=04000US08&-geo_id=04000US09&-geo_id=04000US10&-geo_id=04000US11&-geo_id=04000US12&-geo_id=04000US13&-geo_id=04000US15&-geo_id=04000US16&-geo_id=04000US17&-geo_id=04000US18&-geo_id=04000US19&-geo_id=04000US20&-geo_id=04000US21&-geo_id=04000US22&-geo_id=04000US23&-geo_id=04000US24&-geo_id=04000US25&-geo_id=04000US26&-geo_id=04000US27&-geo_id=04000US28&-geo_id=04000US29&-geo_id=04000US30&-geo_id=04000US31&-geo_id=04000US32&-geo_id=04000US33&-geo_id=04000US34&-geo_id=04000US35&-geo_id=04000US36&-geo_id=04000US37&-geo_id=04000US38&-geo_id=04000US39&-geo_id=04000US40&-geo_id=04000US41&-geo_id=04000US42&-geo_id=04000US44&-geo_id=04000US45&-geo_id=04000US46&-geo_id=04000US47&-geo_id=04000US48&-geo_id=04000US49&-geo_id=04000US50&-geo_id=04000US51&-geo_id=04000US53&-geo_id=04000US54&-geo_id=04000US55&-geo_id=04000US56&-geo_id=04000US72&-geo_id=NBSP&-search_results=01000US&-format=&-_lang=en


http://www.census.gov/population/cen2000/phc-t38/phc-t38.pdf
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"The secret to having a rewarding work-life balance is to have no life. Then it's easy to keep things balanced by doing no work." Wally



"Our party do not have any ideology... Our main aim is to grab power ... Every one is doing so but I say it openly." Keshav Dev Maurya
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