Last minute LibDem leadership election predictions

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Please post predictions here. The most accurate prediction (in terms of % of vote or raw votes) will win a prize. Honest.
I think the LibDems use a form of IRV.

[Michael Z]

Campbell - 43%
Huhne - 32%
Hughes - 25%

I'll scream until my head explodes if Huhne wins.

[Јas]

OK, here's a blind guess.
Huhne to win (on the second count).

First Count:
Huhne - 45%
Campbell - 38%
Hughes - 17%

Second Round:
Huhne - 56%
Campbell - 44%

[Peter]

I'll scream until my head explodes if Huhne wins.

Can you put that on a webcam please.

First Round:
Campbell - 42
Huhne - 33
Hughes - 25

Second Round:
Campbell - 60
Huhne - 40

Campbell elected.

[Jake]

Campbell - 36
Huhne     - 35
Hughes   - 29

Campbell - 53
Huhne     - 47

[afleitch]

Campbell - 39
Huhne     - 37
Hughes   - 24

Campbell - 51
Huhne     - 49

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The contest is closed. Interestingly only one of you hasn't picked Ming the Merciless.

Just in case any of you play around with editing...

Mike:

Campbell - 43%
Huhne - 32%
Hughes - 25%

Jas:

First Count:
Huhne - 45%
Campbell - 38%
Hughes - 17%

Second Round:
Huhne - 56%
Campbell - 44%

Pete:

First Round:
Campbell - 42
Huhne - 33
Hughes - 25

Second Round:
Campbell - 60
Huhne - 40

Jake:

Campbell - 36
Huhne     - 35
Hughes   - 29

Campbell - 53
Huhne     - 47

Andrew:

Campbell - 39
Huhne     - 37
Hughes   - 24

Campbell - 51
Huhne     - 49

[Јas]

BBC News 24 declare Campbell has won.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Odd; they haven't declared the results yet.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Turnout: 72%

Campbell wins

[Јas]

Final Result

Campbell - 29,697
Huhne - 21,628

[Filuwaúrdjan]

In % terms I think that's...

Ming 57.8%
Who? 42.2%

Congratulations Pete

Will find out who won the first round prediction when results are found...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

1st round %'s...

Ming 44.7%
Who? 32%
Hughes: 23.2%

Congratulations Mike

[Peter]

Well, it'll be interesting to see where they go forward from here. Ming is likely to maintain some of the fudging of certain issues that Kennedy had so as to not cause the left wing activists to fight too much with the rightist MPs. Realistically he's not fighting more than one general election, so it will remain to be seen who remains from the right of the party after the next election (I would presently predict something of cutting back of LD MPs in the SE, SW and South London) who might be willing to take it over, or whether a strong left wing voice in the party can rise up (Teather perhaps?)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yes... the electoral effects of this could be quite interesting; while Ming is ideal for holding onto much of the progress the LibDems made in Scotland under Kennedy, I don't think he'll be much help in most of their English seats... amusingly Campbell winning makes the possibility of Huhne or Hughes losing their seats next election more likely...
He actually comes across as a fairly typical pre-Thorpe sort of Liberal leader (he's a posh Scot for one thing). Make of that what you will... just thinking, but does this result count as a huge blow for the left Liberals or not? Both Campbell (and especially) Huhne are on the right after all...

[afleitch]

This should be interesting. With Ming and Brown, the Conservatives will find it difficult to make inroads in Scotland even if nationally their vote is up. SNP held seats could fall their way. Of course it's far too early to make judgements.

It seems the Lib Dems have played it 'safe' this time round, but I can't see him haveing the same sort of appeal to the 'left' that Kennedy did.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Interesting photo...

[afleitch]

Interesting photo...

caption: MWAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

[minionofmidas]

That's Menzies in the middle?
He's a posh Scot, and this is his big day out. Why is he not wearing a kilt?

[Democratic Hawk]

It seems the Lib Dems have played it 'safe' this time round, but I can't see him haveing the same sort of appeal to the 'left' that Kennedy did.

I agree that's how I'd describe Ming - a 'safe pair of hands'. It's steady away I think

Dave

[Filuwaúrdjan]

He's a posh Scot, and this is his big day out. Why is he not wearing a kilt?

^^^

[Ben.]

Well Huhne’s politically dead now IMHO.

Campbell has pretty much made clear that he really doesn’t trust the guy, most of the Orange Bookers see him as a careerist who threatened their own ambitions by standing and potentially denying them a sort period of Campbell leadership during which to feather their own nests and prepare for a later leadership election.

And finally and most importantly he’s a failed libdem leadership candidate in a marginal seat just like Jackie Ballard in Taunton back in 2001, also unlike 2001 the Tories are going to be in a much stronger position locally and nationally than they where in Somerset in 2005 and Huhne’s majority is far smaller than Ballard’s.

After Kent if there is one area where Cameron should be able to bank on having a good election night its Hampshire three LibDem seats (Romsey, Winchester and Huhne’s Eastleigh) are all winnable for the Tories (especially with a leader like Cameron) and Portsmouth North is another likely pick-up in the area for the Conservatives as well… so to finish Huhne is in a very dangerous position I wouldn’t be surprised if he doesn’t see the risk and jack in the politics and devote his time to the multi-million pound fortune he didn’t know he had            

[Michael Z]

1st round %'s...

Ming 44.7%
Who? 32%
Hughes: 23.2%

Congratulations Mike

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Ming hath announced his frontbench team.

Leader: Sir Menzies Campbell
Chancellor: Vince Cable
Transport: Alistair Carmichael
Home Affairs: Nick Clegg
Trade and Industry: Edward Davey
Culture: Don Foster
Chief Secretary to the Treasury: Julia Goldsworthy
Defence: Nick Harvey
Leader of the House: David Heath
Attorney General & Constitutional Affairs: Simon Hughes
Environment: Chris Huhne
International Development: Susan Kramer
Leader's Chief of Staff: Norman Lamb
Work and Pensions: David Laws
Leader in the Lords: Lord McNally
Foreign Affairs: Michael Moore
Northern Ireland and Wales: Lembit Opik
Chief Whip in Lords: Lord Shutt
Deputy PM: Andrew Stunell
Scotland: Jo Swinson
Education: Sarah Teather
Health: Steve Webb
Deputy Leader: Elected position
Chief Whip : Elected position

Interesting to see that Ming likes the idea of *promoting* deadwood... ahem... and the following hath been fired:

Andrew George, Tom Brake, John Thurso, Sandra Gidley and Norman Baker.
Brake, Thurso and Gidley are being nominated for select committee postings (lol at that old trick). Nothing for George or Baker. Interesting...

[J. J.]

Got rid of the Viscount.