Hi Crew!
Just checking to make sure you didn't hold the election without me..
Been out on the road visiting a whole crop of friends along the US West Coast - Washington, Oregon, California... ( I love Oregon! )
Have my laptop with me and hit the odd wi-fi hotspot so I can still get my "political fix" now and then
Over the last week or so I have posted a bunch (ok... a few) polls in Dave's newly created polling section. I tossed in a Virginia and a Ohio both of which are semi-interesting. -
I did a semi breakdown of the last Fox News poll in that section. (more a first read than an actual "sit down and think") but at least there is something there.
Bottom line on the race right now is:
Kerry has an advantage over Bush if you ask a soft fuzzy non-specific question, where Bush has an advantage if you ask a hard, specific question.
For example, in the Fox poll, Kerry has a very modest lead on who would do a better job in Iraq, yet trails 2 to 1 on who has laid out a better "plan" on Iraq.
Kerry needs to get out some actual flesh on his positions.
On Iraq if he would make a speech that said...
"I will do the following on Iraq...
A) ........
B) ........
C) ........"
If his plan made sense, I think he might make a fairly large gain in the polls.
Kerrys current "Turn it over to the UN" position is worse than nothing, it actually hurts him.
There is also a vague, uncrystalized feeling that Kerry could do better, but this has not yet risen to the point where people are willing to take a chance on him.
In short their hopes do not yet exceed their fears about Kerry.
He has 5 1/2 months left to convince people.
Bush's base is (to an AMAZING degree) holding up very well, and Bush supporters still have higher intensity levels than Kerry's.
Should get another round of the public polls soon.
The private tracks are all showing that Bush has recovered a bit from the Iraq Prison matter, and has firmed up a tad.
Pensylvania and Ohio are both behaving strangely. Bush is doing very well in Florida. Michigan seems to have tightened a bit.
Undecided have taken a bit of a jump. I suspect much of it is just folks tuning out for the summer, but we will see in a few more weeks if they break one way or another.
Have not done any hard core anaylsis posts yet, but plan to when I get back, Dave's given me access and all (Thanks Dave!)
A whole whack of you have emailed specific questions which I have been (very) bad at responding to, but I am staying in Eugene (Oregon) tonight so I expect to be replying to a few of then at least, a lot of them are technical questions, so I may post a few of the answers as well if they are generic enough to be interesting.
Note on state polls:
Remember how I said before I left that
"It's summer, if the state poll doesn't say Mason-Dixon you should burn it".....
Hmmm...
Kerry down 12 in Wisconsin
Bush within 1 in California
Bush within 3 in New Jersey
Kerry up 7 in Ohio
Bush within 5 in Illinois...
Just a reminder....
"It's summer, if the state poll doesn't say Mason-Dixon you should burn it".....
Take care, and all of you play nice
The VorlonPS - "The Vorlon" is the name of my cat, which is where I got the name for the forum.
