TX-28 primary

[Sam Spade]

Ah yeah ... I'd like some background on the 2004 primary race actually. Not on how it got decided - I know all about that - but why did Cuellar decide to run against Rodriguez? What was the campaign fought on? Where did Cuellar's money come from? I remember that in 2002, Cuellar almost took out Rep. Henry Bonilla (R), but his vote base was regerrymandered out of Bonilla's district after that.

Well, your memory is basically correct.  As for Cuellar's money, I don't think his family particularly endowed him with any.  He's been a lawyer and was a State House Rep. from Laredo for quite a long time before being Secretary of State under Gov. Rick Perry and Congressman.  I think he had a considerable money-raising advantage before the left really started outreach towards Rodriguez, but I don't think his campaign had more than say $500,000 or so.

About the campaign in 2004, I really don't think there was any other reason other than, Henry Cuellar wanted to run for Congress.  It was highly amusing, since Rodriguez had supported and run strong for Cuellar in 2002 against Bonilla.

Besides, I think Cuellar saw an opportunity at that time (in the same way he did in 2002 against Bonilla) because Rodriguez was voting far to the left of his CD, examples being voting against the partial-birth abortion act and against the War in Iraq, which both went against this socially conservative CD with a high number of military people. (and still do, at least in the partial-birth abortion thingy). 

Rodriguez, of course, ran against him as being a fence-sitter and being to willing to work with Republicans, somewhat the same strategy as he's using in this election.

Anyway, this contest will be highly regional, moreso than about ideology, frankly.  In 2004, Cuellar got 85% of the vote in Webb County and Rodriguez got 80% of the vote in Bexar County.  Turnout will be the important influence, along with whether either candidate can bite into the others' margin in these counties.

[Sam Spade]

Democracy for America's e-mail described "recent polls" showing Rodriguez down by 5.  No data provided.

That was a Rodriguez released internal poll, done roughly 1 and 1/2 weeks ago.

I posted it on my TX primary thread.  It was also posted on Kos, Swing State, etc.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Main worry if Cueller loses is what he does next. Think about it; defections have not exactly been rare in Texas politics and just because the GOP doesn't really exist in south Texas doesn't mean that it will *never* exist down there...

This  Bush loving DINO is in danger of switching parties regardless. Hopefully Texans are better at deciding who is a Democrat than Georgians. No, Zell Miller is not a Democrat, you idiots.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I've taken a look at Cueller. He seems to have a pretty mixed record when it comes to being pro-business or pro-labor. Lefties are, indeed, targetting him, however. Ideally, however, no elected representative should be in hoc to interest groups, they should be accountable to their electorate and those alone

I happen to think he'll make a good statewide candidate, which scores brownie points with me. Nor do I see that in order to be pro-labor you necessarily have to be anti-business or vice versa

Therefore, I'm sticking with Cueller. I don't think Rodrigues is a viable statewide candidate, while Cueller could, at least, emerge as a serious Senate contender, unless he's stopped in his tracks in the Democratic primary

Furthermore, given the Hispanic shift towards the GOP in 2004, shouldn't Democrats be playing it safe, especially in Texas. I suspect Al is right, it's only a matter of time before the Republicans become more established in southern Texas

Dave

Sad, you no longer have the excuse of the moderate being the most electable, seeing as the more liberal candidate was Congressman for 6 years, while the more conservative candidate only won in 2004. This conservative is a Bush loving DINO. I guess you aren't much of a Democrat.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Bush's man date at the 2006 State of the Union.

[Frodo]

Cuellar/Cuellar -I recognize a kindred spirit when I see one. 

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Cuellar/Cuellar -I recognize a kindred spirit when I see one. 

So you want to kiss Bush too?

[Frodo]

Cuellar/Cuellar -I recognize a kindred spirit when I see one. 

So you want to kiss Bush too?

Yes, I do.  He's a cute guy.......   

[Democratic Hawk]

Sad, you no longer have the excuse of the moderate being the most electable, seeing as the more liberal candidate was Congressman for 6 years, while the more conservative candidate only won in 2004. This conservative is a Bush loving DINO. I guess you aren't much of a Democrat.

I must be a lousy Democrat then

Can Democrats not be moderate conservatives these days? Is being a straight down the line liberal (economically, socially and dovish) an absolute prerequisite for being a Democrat these days?

But if you want the Democratic Party to be the permanent minority party on the Beltway, permanently out of the Oval Office and uncompetitive across huge swathes of America, fine. There are Democrats who don't

Cueller's 2005 ratings are:

1) Economic: 53% Liberal/47% Conservative
2) Social: 60% Liberal/40% Conservative
3) Defense: 55% Liberal/45% Conservative

Pretty centrist all-round. On those figures, he's more socially liberal than he is economically liberal. I'd have thought that would have pleased you

Of course, vote ratings can vary from year to year. He might be more to your liking in future

Dave

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

he's more socially liberal than he is economically liberal. I'd have thought that would have pleased you

Since when have libertarian leaning DINOs pleased me? And actually, he's not really libertarian leaning. He has only 16% Progressive Punch on Family planning.

Chet Edwards (who is in a 69% Bush district) is more liberal.

[Yates]

When shall we know the results?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

There could easily be a runoff.

[Democratic Hawk]

he's more socially liberal than he is economically liberal. I'd have thought that would have pleased you

Since when have libertarian leaning DINOs pleased me? And actually, he's not really libertarian leaning. He has only 16% Progressive Punch on Family planning.

Chet Edwards (who is in a 69% Bush district) is more liberal.

You don't seem to like populists much either

Dave

[nini2287]

Results are starting to come in:

Rodriguez 48
Cuellar 43
Morales 9









(with 1% of precints reporting)

http://204.65.107.70/dem1race5.htm

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

he's more socially liberal than he is economically liberal. I'd have thought that would have pleased you

Since when have libertarian leaning DINOs pleased me? And actually, he's not really libertarian leaning. He has only 16% Progressive Punch on Family planning.

Chet Edwards (who is in a 69% Bush district) is more liberal.

You don't seem to like populists much either

Dave

I just don't like Bush loving DINOs. This bastard endorsed the worst President ever both times.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Results are starting to come in:

Rodriguez 48
Cuellar 43
Morales 9









(with 1% of precints reporting)

http://204.65.107.70/dem1race5.htm

So far just early voting.

[nini2287]

he's more socially liberal than he is economically liberal. I'd have thought that would have pleased you

Since when have libertarian leaning DINOs pleased me? And actually, he's not really libertarian leaning. He has only 16% Progressive Punch on Family planning.

Chet Edwards (who is in a 69% Bush district) is more liberal.

You don't seem to like populists much either

Dave

I just don't like Bush loving DINOs. This bastard endorsed the worst President ever both times.

James Buchanan only ran once

[Democratic Hawk]

he's more socially liberal than he is economically liberal. I'd have thought that would have pleased you

Since when have libertarian leaning DINOs pleased me? And actually, he's not really libertarian leaning. He has only 16% Progressive Punch on Family planning.

Chet Edwards (who is in a 69% Bush district) is more liberal.

You don't seem to like populists much either

Dave

I just don't like Bush loving DINOs. This bastard endorsed the worst President ever both times.

Hell, that's more than I would have done. As president's go, Bush is bottom drawer. I've just never thought him up to the job

I still think Cueller is statewide material, though. And, as of now, the House Democratic Caucus seems united on key votes

I'm gonna stop up a while and watch this primary play out. I hope the party doesn't lose a guy who could very well be a viable Senate candidate a few years down the line. I genuinely would like to see Democrats gain ground in southern states; though I certainly don't want them running to the right of the GOP

Dave

[Q]

Henry Cuellar          1,282    45.54%
Victor Morales       330     11.72%
Ciro D. Rodriguez    1,203     42.74%

1.45% of precincts reporting

[Sam Spade]

Henry Cuellar          1,282    45.54%
Victor Morales       330     11.72%
Ciro D. Rodriguez    1,203     42.74%

1.45% of precincts reporting

The game really won't begin until Webb and Bexar counties start reporting.  Stay tuned.

[Democratic Hawk]

Henry Cuellar          1,282    45.54%
Victor Morales       330     11.72%
Ciro D. Rodriguez    1,203     42.74%

1.45% of precincts reporting

The game really won't begin until Webb and Bexar counties start reporting.  Stay tuned.

When can we expect it to be all done and dusted? It's 2.22AM (GMT)

Dave

[Sam Spade]

Henry Cuellar          1,282    45.54%
Victor Morales       330     11.72%
Ciro D. Rodriguez    1,203     42.74%

1.45% of precincts reporting

The game really won't begin until Webb and Bexar counties start reporting.  Stay tuned.

When can we expect it to be all done and dusted? It's 2.22AM (GMT)

Dave

I expect some non-early voting results to come in within about 30 min. - 1 hour.  When I lived in Houston, the results usually started to come in sometime between 9:00 PM and 10:00 PM CST. 

Now, with South Texas, that could be totally different. 

Besides, both campaigns have to plant their typical South Texas ballot boxes filled with uncounted votes, so they have enough votes to win. 

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

he's more socially liberal than he is economically liberal. I'd have thought that would have pleased you

Since when have libertarian leaning DINOs pleased me? And actually, he's not really libertarian leaning. He has only 16% Progressive Punch on Family planning.

Chet Edwards (who is in a 69% Bush district) is more liberal.

You don't seem to like populists much either

Dave

I just don't like Bush loving DINOs. This bastard endorsed the worst President ever both times.

Hell, that's more than I would have done. As president's go, Bush is bottom drawer. I've just never thought him up to the job

I still think Cueller is statewide material, though. And, as of now, the House Democratic Caucus seems united on key votes

I'm gonna stop up a while and watch this primary play out. I hope the party doesn't lose a guy who could very well be a viable Senate candidate a few years down the line. I genuinely would like to see Democrats gain ground in southern states; though I certainly don't want them running to the right of the GOP

Dave

Chet Edwards is more liberal than this guy, and he is in a 69% Bush district. Cuellar is a useless Bush supporting DINO. 

While it was a different district, Rodriguez won 71-27 in 2002. Your argument has been destroyed.

[Sam Spade]

If I had a dollar for every time jfern said DINO....

[Democratic Hawk]

he's more socially liberal than he is economically liberal. I'd have thought that would have pleased you

Since when have libertarian leaning DINOs pleased me? And actually, he's not really libertarian leaning. He has only 16% Progressive Punch on Family planning.

Chet Edwards (who is in a 69% Bush district) is more liberal.

You don't seem to like populists much either

Dave

I just don't like Bush loving DINOs. This bastard endorsed the worst President ever both times.

Hell, that's more than I would have done. As president's go, Bush is bottom drawer. I've just never thought him up to the job

I still think Cueller is statewide material, though. And, as of now, the House Democratic Caucus seems united on key votes

I'm gonna stop up a while and watch this primary play out. I hope the party doesn't lose a guy who could very well be a viable Senate candidate a few years down the line. I genuinely would like to see Democrats gain ground in southern states; though I certainly don't want them running to the right of the GOP

Dave

Chet Edwards is more liberal than this guy, and he is in a 69% Bush district. Cuellar is a useless Bush supporting DINO. 

While it was a different district, Rodriguez won 71-27 in 2002. Your argument has been destroyed.

My argument is that, one day, Cueller has a fair shot at the Senate because he isn't someone who'd go down in flames with the the 'liberal' tag. Texas is not a liberal state. End of. Him losing this primary could very well scupper that possibility. If Cueller were to run for the Senate and lose, then yes my argument will have been destroyed. I'm just sorry Cueller didn't knock-out Henry Bonilla in CD-23 back in 2002

Out of interest, any one know how D-28 broke in the 2004 Presidential?

Dave