TX-28 primary

[MarkWarner08]

Si! It appears Ciro has zero shot to win in the runoff, if he even makes it to a runoff.

[nini2287]

83% Reporting (still 0 from Webb):

Cuellar 48.2
Rodriguez 45.0
Morales 6.8

[jimrtex]

83% Reporting (still 0 from Webb):

Cuellar 48.2
Rodriguez 45.0
Morales 6.8

It does include the Early Voting from Webb, which could be up around 50% of the total vote.

[socaldem]

Though I'm much more closely aligned, ideologically, to Ciro Rodriguez, I'm not to disappointed in a Henry Cuellar win since a Rodriguez win would have greatly increased the risk of a Cuellar party defection in the next election.  If Cuellar were to win as a GOPer, I think he'd win, easily.  I just hope that in the next redistricting, Webb county gets lumpted into a district resembling the one that Rep. Henry Bonilla held during the 1990s.

That said, I'm happy to see that the up-and-coming Carlos Uresti beat a conservative incumbent state senator who may one day carry on Rodriguez's legacy of progressive representation for Bexar county.

At the very least, Democrats can take solace in the fact that the GOP also has a Texas-sized thorn in their side in Rep. Ron Paul.

[nini2287]

Final update before I go to bed:

84% Reporting

Cuellar 47.9%
Rodriguez 45.3%
Morales 6.8%

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Final update before I go to bed:

84% Reporting

Cuellar 47.9%
Rodriguez 45.3%
Morales 6.8%

Damn DINO will probably avoid a runoff.

[nini2287]

Final update before I go to bed:

84% Reporting

Cuellar 47.9%
Rodriguez 45.3%
Morales 6.8%

Damn DINO will probably avoid a runoff.

Looks like you're right, of the 44 precincts left to report, 37 are in Webb or Zapala counties which so far are both over 80% for Cuellar.

[nini2287]

Intersting bit from Ciro.  He's predicting a run-off but his statement almost sounds like a concession:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2006/3/8/14550/06793

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Intersting bit from Ciro.  He's predicting a run-off but his statement almost sounds like a concession:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2006/3/8/14550/06793

People on that thread don't seem to realize that the DINO has likely won.

Texas is a joke, defeating a good man like Rodriguez in 2004, and defeating him again now, all while DeLay easily wins his nomination.

[Alcon]

Bush's man date at the 2006 State of the Union.

You know, the gay jokes do tend to get old.  Politicians touch eachother.  Ooh!

You're old?

Well played, pinkobreath.

[Sam Spade]

Cuellar will top 50% once the rest of the votes are counted with plenty to spare.  I have heard that early voting in Webb County was about half what regular voting was and with those margins...

So, what record does this give the Daily Kos forces now, 0 and what exactly... 

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Cuellar will top 50% once the rest of the votes are counted with plenty to spare.  I have heard that early voting in Webb County was about half what regular voting was and with those margins...

So, what record does this give the Daily Kos forces now, 0 and what exactly... 

Hey, they endorsed Obama who did a 40+ point pickup. DailyKos was talking about the obscure State Senator with a funny sounding name long before anyone knew who he was. That Ryan guy hired someone to stalk him.

[Sam Spade]

Cuellar will top 50% once the rest of the votes are counted with plenty to spare.  I have heard that early voting in Webb County was about half what regular voting was and with those margins...

So, what record does this give the Daily Kos forces now, 0 and what exactly... 

Hey, they endorsed Obama who did a 40+ point pickup. DailyKos was talking about the obscure State Senator with a funny sounding name long before anyone knew who he was. That Ryan guy hired someone to stalk him.

I'm not talking about endorsements.  You know what I'm talking about. 

Obama has a good future, I certainly agree. 

Of course, it would have been such a large margin if it weren't for Alan Keyes, but that's really not to the point either.

Anyway, look forward to November or if the new map gets overturned at the Supremes, we'll get to do this again.

Which is what I've been meaning to ask you.  If the re-gerrymandered map is overturned and all and we have to redo primaries, here's what will probably change:

Bonilla v. Cuellar II.
Dems gain back two seats probably from the five they lost, with Lampson running back to Beaumont to reclaim his CD and Martin Frost reclaiming his CD as well.
Chet Edwards: unchanged situation, still a tough win for him.
Ciro Rodriguez gets his old CD back.
Lloyd Doggett has a much, much tougher race.

Bottom line:  Dems gain +2 to +3 probably, depending on environment, but...

Tom DeLay gets reelected fairly easily.

Or the present situation:

Tom DeLay on the ropes: total toss-up and
Chet Edwards: still a tough situation, probably tougher in the new CD.

Dems +1 to Dems -1, roughly, depending on environment.

I think I know which you would choose, just curious actually.

[nini2287]

A runoff is avoided.

99% of precincts reporting

Cuellar 52.8%
Rodriguez 40.7%
Morales 6.5%

Good try, Ciro.

[Democratic Hawk]

A runoff is avoided.

99% of precincts reporting

Cuellar 52.8%
Rodriguez 40.7%
Morales 6.5%

Good try, Ciro.

Let's just say I'm happy Cueller won the primary. I hope one day he'll decide to run, and make it, to the Senate - as a Democrat (albeit not a liberal one). He's, likely, the best the Democrats can run statewide

Thanks for the demographics , jimrtex

Dave

[Adlai Stevenson]

I think that at the moment the Democrats don't have much hope to pick up a Senate seat in Texas.  The next elections are in 2008 and 2012, when a GOP presidential candidate at the top of the ticket will mean an extremely hard task for a Democratic candidate will be made even harder.  I also think that given the fact that other Republican states elect Democratic governors, Cuellar should run in 2010.  It would be an easier task for him after ten years of the unpopular Rick Perry in office, presumably as the latter is sure to be re-elected in November. 

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

A runoff is avoided.

99% of precincts reporting

Cuellar 52.8%
Rodriguez 40.7%
Morales 6.5%

Good try, Ciro.

Let's just say I'm happy Cueller won the primary. I hope one day he'll decide to run, and make it, to the Senate - as a Democrat (albeit not a liberal one). He's, likely, the best the Democrats can run statewide

Thanks for the demographics , jimrtex

Dave

WTF? Let's list all of the problems with your argument

1. This Bush loving DINO could switch parties
2. Rodriguez had some landslide wins
3. Chet Edwards is significantly more liberal and wins in a 69% Bush district. Jim Matheson is more liberal, and managed to win 55-43 in his Utah Congressional district.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

1. This Bush loving DINO could switch parties

Perhaps, but please have a look in the mirror before deciding why that might be the case.
Frankly the fact that, despite the mass defections seen in Texas over the past decade, he's *still* a Democrat, probably says something... doesn't it?

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The GOP still does not exist in that part of Texas. Make my (late ) cat the Democratic candidate, and she could (have) won by the sort of numbers that he polled.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Chet Edwards is a longserving incumbent in a rural area. People in rural areas often have no problem voting against their normal habits if candidate X or Y brings home the bacon.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

1. This Bush loving DINO could switch parties

Perhaps, but please have a look in the mirror before deciding why that might be the case.
Frankly the fact that, despite the mass defections seen in Texas over the past decade, he's *still* a Democrat, probably says something... doesn't it?

He could be waiting until after the election. The point is this guy endorsed Bush both times, and so is not a real Democrat.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The GOP still does not exist in that part of Texas. Make my (late ) cat the Democratic candidate, and she could (have) won by the sort of numbers that he polled.
[/quote]
Yes, they have to settle for electing DINOs.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Chet Edwards is a longserving incumbent in a rural area. People in rural areas often have no problem voting against their normal habits if candidate X or Y brings home the bacon.
[/quote]
My point is Chet Edwards would be a much better candidate for a statewide race. He's a true winner, DeLay tried to take him down, and failed. Every other Democrat targetted by DeLay was defeated. He represents George Dubai Bush.

 Cuellar is more conservative than one of Utah's 3 Congressmen. That's just sad.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

He could be waiting until after the election.[/quote]

...which would be an odd thing to do, wouldn't it? O/c that may be the case, but you shouldn't presume that to be the case... in doing so you and others like you make such a possibility all the more likely. Don't you see that?
Ralph Hall he's not though.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

An interesting statement. There seem to two ways of looking at it; first, that to be a Real Democrat TM you have to endorse every single Democrat running for election. As such I'm sure that a certain CT Senator can count on your support.
...and if that's not the case, then you've just admitted that being Anti Bush is all that matters to the Democratic Party. Which would be a pathetic thing to admit, wouldn't it?

You must be logged in to read this quote.

You think that Rodriguez is any more representative of the people of the district than Cuellar?

You must be logged in to read this quote.

If the demographics of Texas were what they were a few decades ago (or like the Deep South), you'd be right. But they aren't... rural white Texas doesn't really matter any more, not in it's own right at least (quite a change from the days of the Rayburn/LBJ double act). Edwards would poll pretty well, much better than most recent statewide Dems, but not well enough methinks. He just wouldn't be able to do well enough in South Texas to overcome the huge GOP margins in the suburbs, and he certainly wouldn't be able to dampen down those if he wanted to stay popular in rural areas.
Tis a horrible trap the Texas Democrats hath fallen into.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Playing on stereotypes is neither big nor clever.

[minionofmidas]

Damn, the Republicans and DINOs must be mobilized. Cuellar ran much better in Frio and McMullen counties this time then 2004.  Hays county is about the same. Looks like the Republicans will retain this seat. I wonder if this DINO will switch parties.

Not really surprising - I guess many of the few people over there just voted for the incumbent without bothering for a minute to ask about issues. Both times.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

It's sad how the populists are defending this guy that was endorsed by the Club for Growth. They even gave him $150,000.

[jimrtex]

Damn, the Republicans and DINOs must be mobilized. Cuellar ran much better in Frio and McMullen counties this time then 2004.  Hays county is about the same. Looks like the Republicans will retain this seat. I wonder if this DINO will switch parties.

Not really surprising - I guess many of the few people over there just voted for the incumbent without bothering for a minute to ask about issues. Both times.

There was a big dropoff in support for Rodriguez in the counties which were in his previous district (Frio, Atascosa, Wilson, LaSalle, and McMullen), perhaps by people who had turned out for the presidential primary and voted for the familiar name.  

Also in 2006, the vote total for the D28 race was 50 to 70% higher than the vote total for US Senator or Governor.  In 2004, it was about 20% higher than the already decided presidential primary (this is in the counties wholly in the district).

It wouldn't be any particularly surprising that Hays County voted for Rodriguez.  There was a special election for a congressional seat in West Texas where the Lubbock and Midland-Odessa areas went strongly for their candidates from those areas.  The areas to the north and south of the home areas went even stronger (up around 85%) for the closer candidate.

There might be a pretty strong segment of student vote in Hays County from TSU-SM, who wouldn't necessarily be from Laredo or San Antonio.  Those students who did vote, might be inclined to buy into Jfern's argument.

[they don't love you like i love you]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

An interesting statement. There seem to two ways of looking at it; first, that to be a Real Democrat TM you have to endorse every single Democrat running for election. As such I'm sure that a certain CT Senator can count on your support.
...and if that's not the case, then you've just admitted that being Anti Bush is all that matters to the Democratic Party. Which would be a pathetic thing to admit, wouldn't it?

It's not too much to expect Democratic office holders to support their party's main nominee. After all, no one would defend Zell Miller now. If someone is ideologically closer to Bush than Gore or Kerry, they're not much of a Democrat are they?

As for Lieberman, jfern isn't supporting his Republican opponent, he is like, me supporting his Democratic primary challenger, a big difference. Plus neither I or jfern are Democratic office holders.