What's going on in Germany right now?

[struct310]

Since the last close election, who do you think will win the next election?

Since the CDU/CSU is one of the few parties closest to US republican social conservatives in Europe, I hope its them.  A US Republican president with a CDU/CSU prime minister would make a great economic team.    

[Middle-aged Europe]

CDU/CSU-FDP coalition led by Angela Merkel.

Latest poll results:
http://www.election.de/cgi-bin/showpoll.pl?name=btw_sf

And we have a chancellor and not a prime minister. What dou you think who we are? Britain?

[struct310]

CDU/CSU-FDP coalition led by Angela Merkel.

Latest poll results:
http://www.election.de/cgi-bin/showpoll.pl?name=btw_sf

And we have a chancellor and not a prime minister. What dou you think who we are? Britain?

OH MAN IM SORRY.  I was thinking of Britain at the same time.  I know German so that was just a mess up on my part.  Thanks

[struct310]

Wow.  Didnt they have pretty good numbers going into the last election?  I know the south is pretty CDU/CSU strong, so where do they have to drive up vote margins at?

[Middle-aged Europe]

Wow.  Didnt they have pretty good numbers going into the last election?  I know the south is pretty CDU/CSU strong, so where do they have to drive up vote margins at?

Well, I don´t know, if the last CDU/CSU result could be called "pretty good", considering the fact that the CDU/CSU was usually the strongest party in the federal republic except for the elections of 1972, 1998 and 2002. And before 1998 the CDU/CSU had always received more than 40% of the votes (except 1949).
But of course they were close in ´02. With 38.5% they were neck-to-neck with the SPD. Ironically, the next election could become one of the greatest victory in their history.

What do you mean exactly with "where do they have to drive up vote margins at"? I think the CDU is strong in every part of the country at the moment. Take a look at this constituency prediciton map compiled by the various poll results: http://www.election.de/img/poll/btw_wp_040522.html
As you can see, the CDU is strong everywhere at the moment, except for the state of Brandenburg, the Ruhr area, the eastern part of Berlin and some isolated corners in the north.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Ouch!
My guess is that it'll get closer... the CDU-CSU still wins easily though...

[Middle-aged Europe]

Ouch!
My guess is that it'll get closer... the CDU-CSU still wins easily though...

That´s how it was in the 2002 election:

http://www.election.de/cgi-bin/showimage.pl?filename=../img/maps/btw02e.gif

[minionofmidas]

There's no reason whatsoever to believe they might even conceivably win a Federal Election by such a margin anymore. Which is not to say they aren't favourites to win...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Actually the uniform swing map looks awfully like 1983 over here...

[minionofmidas]

Actually the uniform swing map looks awfully like 1983 over here...

Exactly.
Way too many 1983 CDU voters are dead by now, way too few new ones exist. That kinda map is now only possible on a turnout of 70% at the very, very maximum. Probably less.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Do polls tend to overestimate the CDU-CSU's votes? I just can't believe that they will do *that* well...

[minionofmidas]

Two things going on...
a) Polls in Germany tend to overestimate opposition support. Back in the 90's polls were usually good news to the Left, though it didn't go to the extremes we see now.
b) The Union supporters remain highly motivated. The Left is turned off by social cuts, but they'll be back, most of them, when it comes to voting the Lesser Evil in a Federal Election. Just as in 2002.

[minionofmidas]

And it's quite plausible that, superimposing the EU election results on that map, it'd look something like that...

[Middle-aged Europe]

There's no reason whatsoever to believe they might even conceivably win a Federal Election by such a margin anymore. Which is not to say they aren't favourites to win...

Possible. That´s the reason why I said in my first post that there will be probably a CDU/CSU-FDP coalition. I´m still sceptical that the CDU/CSU will really win a absolute majority in 2006.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Two things going on...
a) Polls in Germany tend to overestimate opposition support. Back in the 90's polls were usually good news to the Left, though it didn't go to the extremes we see now.
b) The Union supporters remain highly motivated. The Left is turned off by social cuts, but they'll be back, most of them, when it comes to voting the Lesser Evil in a Federal Election. Just as in 2002.

a) That happens in the U.K as well
b) That also happens in the U.K as well...

[Storebought]

Since the last close election, who do you think will win the next election?

Since the CDU/CSU is one of the few parties closest to US republican social conservatives in Europe, I hope its them.  A US Republican president with a CDU/CSU prime minister would make a great economic team.    

There is nothing remotely Republican about Germany's CDU. Even the Bavarian sister party resembles your typical  tax-and-spend Vermont socialist better than the Republicans.

The last CDU minister to head off to the US to lend moral support to Bush was the East German Angela Merkel. She was roundly criticized for it by politicians both within her party and without.

And as to social conservatism in Europe: just look at David Duke's website to get a flavor of what passes for 'conservative' across the Atlantic.

[Storebought]

Ouch!
My guess is that it'll get closer... the CDU-CSU still wins easily though...

I really doubt the CDU will win a single Hamburg district.

[WMS]

Well, good luck to the CDU/CSU! Ever since Schroder whipped up anti-American sentiment in order to win the last election, I have really, truly, been p*ssed off with the German left. I hope they get stomped into the ground so that relations can get a bit less chilly...we're still moving our bases to countries that appreciate us, however, in "New Europe"!

[Michael Z]

I really doubt the CDU will win a single Hamburg district.

The CDU won the last mayoral election in Hamburg.

[Storebought]

I really doubt the CDU will win a single Hamburg district.

The CDU won the last mayoral election in Hamburg.

You fell into the trap!

Just because a locality votes for one party in a local election doesn't imply that the same locality will vote for the same party in a 'national' election.

It would be admitting that, because Rhode Island (a state very similar to Hamburg) elected a Republican governor and a non-Democrat mayor of Providence, that RI will vote -R for its two congressional districts.

[CO-OWL]

I really doubt the CDU will win a single Hamburg district.

The CDU won the last mayoral election in Hamburg.

You fell into the trap!

Just because a locality votes for one party in a local election doesn't imply that the same locality will vote for the same party in a 'national' election.

It would be admitting that, because Rhode Island (a state very similar to Hamburg) elected a Republican governor and a non-Democrat mayor of Providence, that RI will vote -R for its two congressional districts.

If there's a CDU landslide, several districts could be in play.
If there's a moderate CDU victory, they have a fair chance in the wealthy suburbs. In 1994, for example the CDU won Hamburg-North. (Of course, with a conservative southerner like Stoiber as candidate the chance would be very low.)

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I don't read German or follow German politics too closely, so maybe I'm missing something....but why don't those maps have the FDP on them?

[YoMartin]

I don't read German or follow German politics too closely, so maybe I'm missing something....but why don't those maps have the FDP on them?

I was thinking the same thing. What has happened to the FDP?

Bc they haven´t won any district.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I don't read German or follow German politics too closely, so maybe I'm missing something....but why don't those maps have the FDP on them?

I was thinking the same thing. What has happened to the FDP?

Bc they haven´t won any district.

Really?  But they still get the full proportional representation in the legislature, right?

It seems like the district map doesn't really matter in Germany, since whatever district a party wins is just taken out of their proportional total (unless they are below the 5% line).

[YoMartin]

I don't read German or follow German politics too closely, so maybe I'm missing something....but why don't those maps have the FDP on them?

I was thinking the same thing. What has happened to the FDP?

Bc they haven´t won any district.

Really?  But they still get the full proportional representation in the legislature, right?

It seems like the district map doesn't really matter in Germany, since whatever district a party wins is just taken out of their proportional total (unless they are below the 5% line).

Or unless they get more districts that what belongs to them by PR, although this doesn´t happen so often. Still it´s important to win districts, to grow as a party or to strengthen in a certain region.

I´m a big fan of this system (I know others in this forum prefer FPTP), and the government in my country (argentina) is currently trying to adopt it here. It seems PPR is becoming more and more popular...