State legislatures

[Gustaf]

I thought there could be a topic for these often over-looked races. I have no idea what usually affects or decides them, but I'm interested in learning more...as of now it's tied, 20-20, with 9 split and 1 non-partisan (Nebraska, what's up with that???). Will the Dems finally get a majority of something?

[Moooooo]

Republicans should make gains here in Maryland, but not enough to break up the dem's veto-proof majority.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

The GOP gained the Tennessee State Senate after '04 and we're just four seats away from taking the House.  In that respect, its not a matter of "if", but   "when" we will take over.  It may not happen this cycle, but its very possible it will happen before regular redistricting in 2012.  The Dems know they are screwed if this occurs.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

As for what's up with Nebraska, it chooses to leave off party identification in elections for the Unicameral.

[nini2287]

In PA, Republicans control both houses of the legislature, but there's going to be a major shake-up (against both Democrats and Republicans) this November because the legislators voted themselves a backdoor pay raise in the middle of the night that unconstitutionally applies to this year (the public outcry has forced them to repeal it, but the backlash is still there).

[Sam Spade]

Neither the Texas House nor the Senate is going to be changed from GOP control this year and probably not anytime in the near future.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Minnesota House has a razor thin GOP majority. They'll probably narrowly keep it unofrtunately, due to the fact the GOP lost almost all of their extremely vulnerable House seats in 2004. Still the DFL did pull of some rather impressive scalps no one expecting then, including the #3 House Republican, so I wouldn't rule anything out.

Senate has a bit stronger DFL majority. It would take an absolutely perfect storm for the GOP to take it. To pick up a few seats would be possible, but thinks aren't looking good for the GOP in November, so I doubt it.

[WalterMitty]

the republicans in the mass legislature could meet in a phone booth.

but the legislature isnt as liberal as one might imagine.  there are a number of conservative democrats that represent blue collar areas.

[Flying Dog]

The michigan state house could switch democrat. It depends how well granholm does in the election. State Senate is solid republican  though.

[J. J.]

In PA, Republicans control both houses of the legislature, but there's going to be a major shake-up (against both Democrats and Republicans) this November because the legislators voted themselves a backdoor pay raise in the middle of the night that unconstitutionally applies to this year (the public outcry has forced them to repeal it, but the backlash is still there).

A gigantically bad year for incumbents in PA, though it was probably constitutional (though sleazy).

[Dave from Michigan]

the democrats may take back the state house

If anyone cares

Top 10 closest republican held seats (Michigan House of Represenatives)

19th  rep  53.13%   dem   46.87%     Livonia
30th   rep  53.85%   dem  46.15%     Sterling Heights
39th   rep  52.39%   dem  45.32%     Commerce/ West Bloomfield
51st   rep  54.55%   dem  45.45%     South Genese county NOT Flint area
62nd  rep  53.37%   dem  46,63%    Calhoun Not including Battle Creek
64th   rep. 50.51%   dem  49.49%    Jackson county not the city
65th   rep. 51.38%   dem  48.62%    Jackson city and east Jackson co.
75th   rep. 52.23%   dem  47.77%    Grand Rapids city part
91st   rep  51.99%   dem  48.01%     Muskegon county not including the city
97th   rep  51.66%    dem  48.34%   Bay (part), Arenac, Gladwin, Clare

Only 3 seats are in metro Detroit area

[TeePee4Prez]

In PA, Republicans control both houses of the legislature, but there's going to be a major shake-up (against both Democrats and Republicans) this November because the legislators voted themselves a backdoor pay raise in the middle of the night that unconstitutionally applies to this year (the public outcry has forced them to repeal it, but the backlash is still there).

I think the anti-incumbent mood should hurt Republicans more because they hold more seats and the way it's gerrymandered, their seats are not as solid Republican seats as Democratic seats are Democratic.  I am a bit afraid for Mark Cohen, my Rep, because he is one of the few progressive voices in Northeast Philadelphia left and he's being challenged by conservative (anti-choice) Democrat Pat Dugan in the primary.  Of course the pay raise is the #1 issue.  Also up is the 174th district in which Alan Butkovitz left and I need to know more about Mike Sabatina the assumed Dem nominee.  That district is next to mine and Butkovitz was the other progressive voice in this area.  I hope Sabatina isn't a Mike McGeehan-Bob Casey type, but I'll find out soon enough.

[Dave from Michigan]

Livonia, Sterling heights, and Commerce/Bloomfield are unlikely to switch.

the democrats won't pick up any seats in Wayne county either ha ha

[nclib]

Does anyone have a map of which states are controlled by which party in the legislature?

[Alcon]

Does anyone have a map of which states are controlled by which party in the legislature?

Montana is split Dem/tie.  Not sure if any of the other legislatures are tied.

Updated in November.

[bgwah]

Democrats gained the Washington State Senate in 2004 and already had the House.

I doubt it will change. I looked through the results, there were only six or so "close" races (margin less than 50%), five of which were Republicans, and as far as I know they already held those seats!

Some thought that the gas tax may have caused the Dems to lose, but then voters approved of it via initiative last year, by a surprisingly large margin (considering how anti-tax Washingtonians tend to be).

I don't expect there to be much change, and its certainly not impossible that the Republicans may take back the Senate (The Democrats only have it 25-24), but I honestly wouldn't be surprised to see the Democrats make even more gains.

Edit: I decided to look it up. As Senators last elected in 2002 are up for re-election this year, I decided to compile a list of all victories from 2002 in which the winner won with less than 60% of the vote.

District 6
51.40% James West (R)
48.60% Laurie Dolan (D)

District 26
50.42% Robert Oke (R)
49.58% Betty Ringlee (D)

District 30
54.05% Tracie Eide (D)
45.95% William Moore (R)

District 31
51.69% Pam Roach (R)
48.31% Yvonne Ward (D)

District 42
49.25% Dale Brandland (R)
46.20% Georgia Gardner (D)
2.65% Peter Tassoni (G)
1.90% Donald Crawford (L)

District 44
53.09% David Schmidt (R)
46.91% Phil Doerflein (D)

District 47
55.52% Stephen Johnson (R)
44.48% Jacobson (D)

Six Republicans, and one Democrat.

Infamous James West retired to become Mayor of Spokane.

Because the sixth district had an election for Senate in 2004 again, I assume this was a special election, in which case the results were;

50.92% Brad Benson (R)
49.07% Laurie Dolan (D)

Which shows a closer margin of victory for Republicans in the sixth district in 2004 than in 2002. Interesting, although I suppose lack of incumbency may have played a role.

[WMS]

NM is currently controlled by the Dems, and will likely remain so after 2006, although it is possible the Reps could make a few gains. House Districts 8 and 9 7 { } in Valencia County should be highly competitive this year. However, until Filing Day, I can't really say much more than this - the Reps are stronger than their numbers indicate, but they've been too inept to take advantage of it...

[muon2]

There is unlikely to be a change in IL in '06. The current map was designed to strongly favor the D's and it worked as planned in 2002 when the Senate switched. In 2004 there were a couple seats that switched back, but the margins are still quite large. A factor in 2006 is the large number of vacancies in R seats this year due to retirement and races for other offices. Unless there is a total meltdown by the Gov, and a huge backlash into the lower races, the General Assembly will stay with the Democrats.

[bgwah]

An encouraging article in the Seattle Times about Washington: http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2002855630_legislature10m.html

The Democrats are getting credit for a good year in the legislature, and everyone, including the Republicans, believe that this will shape up to be another good year for the Democrats.

In addition to that, two people who made my list of vulnerable races are retiring. They are Republicans Stephen Johnson and Bob Oke.

[WMS]

NM is currently controlled by the Dems, and will likely remain so after 2006, although it is possible the Reps could make a few gains. House Districts 8 and 9 7 [damnit! ] in Valencia County should be highly competitive this year. However, until Filing Day, I can't really say much more than this - the Reps are stronger than their numbers indicate, but they've been too inept to take advantage of it...

From a blurb here:

"SANTA FE - After 12 years in the House of Representatives, Minority Leader Ted Hobbs won't seek re-election this year.

Hobbs, an Albuquerque Republican who gives his age as "62 or so," said he wants to give someone else a chance to represent District 20, which includes portions of the Southeast and Northeast Heights.

"It's time to let somebody fresh come in," he said Thursday. "
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This district will remain Republican...heck, if his successor is who I think it is going to be (a Rep contact and buddy of mine), I'm going to have a strong contact in the Legislature.

"Other lawmakers widely expected to retire or not run again include Rep. Kandy Cordova, a Belen Democrat and Rep. Joe Stell, a Carlsbad Democrat. Santa Fe Democrat Luciano "Lucky" Varela is giving up his seat to run for state treasurer."

Cordova was mentioned in my initial post (House District 7) and her seat is ultra-competitive, along with House District 8. Possible Rep gain.

Joe Stell represents House District 54, another highly competitive district, fitting this Dixiecrat. Possible Rep gain, although the Reps have blown some rural opportunities in recent elections.

Luciano Varela represents House District 48, a very Democratic district that will certainly pick a Democrat to replace him.

The NM races are shaping up to be more interesting than I thought they would be. More as I get it whether you're interested or not

[ag]

Since nobody has yet written on NY in this thread.

The two chambers have traditionally been districted so that the Dems perpetually control the Assembley and the Reps control the Senate, the minority in each chamber being institutionally marginalized into complete irrelevance (in fact, there are really only two legislators that matter: the majority leaders of the chambers; the rest are there largely for decoration, except when they are called upon to vote the party line, though there've been some recent reforms to change that a bit). The Dems are now sufficiently strong statewide to attempt a takeover in the Senate. Theyy might not yet entirely succede in 2006, but there is a general expectation that eventually they will.  If this happens by 2010, the bipartisan gerrimander will become a Democratic gerrimander, and the legislature will be in Dem hands until the next reallignment.

[Gustaf]

I think MOntana counts as Democrat because they hold the tie-breaking vote or something? At least on Wikipedia it does... I think Maine has a Dem plurality with Greens holding the balance of power. And I think Iowa also had some sort of split.

[muon2]

Here are some extra details on the difficulty to change in IL.

The current Senate is 32 D, 1 I (caucus as D) and 26 R. Two thirds of the Senate seats are up for election this year: 21 D (the I filed as a D) and 18 R. The primary is in a week and a half, and many races have no filing on one side. A party can slate a candidate after the primary, but that canddate lacks the early organization and name recognition from the primary.

The Democrats have two new members since the last election and one retirement after this session. In addition to these three seats, two other seats have Republicans filed to oppose in November.

The Republicans have two new members since the last election and five retirements after this session. Five of those seven seats have filed Democrats, and an additional three other seats have filed contests in November.

It will be difficult for the Republicans to hold so many seats and gain three additional seats to take the majority.

[Frodo]

Republicans have controlled the General Assembly since 1999 by lopsided margins, and this basic reality isn't likely to change in the near future. However, they are losing control of Northern Virginia to Democrats capitalizing on the failure of the Virginia GOP to respond to concerns about suburban sprawl, traffic, and education, and they have found out that using divisive issues like gun control and abortion to their advantage don't carry as much resonance in this region as they used to.  And given this is a growing region, this is a loss they can ill afford to ignore.  As a result, Democrats have recouped their losses somewhat, with 40 seats in the one-hundred member House of Delegates, and 17 seats in the forty-member state Senate.   

[WMS]

This district will remain Republican...heck, if his successor is who I think it is going to be (a Rep contact and buddy of mine), I'm going to have a strong contact in the Legislature.

Or maybe not...I'll have to find out what happened when I talk to him later this week.