Belarusian presidential "election"

[Middle-aged Europe]

I'm surprised that there isn't a thread about this one here. On sunday, Alexander Lukashenko will undoubtly "win" another term as president of Belarus. The questions are: Will it cause Ukraine-style mass demonstrations? Could those demonstrations end in a Tiananmen-style bloodbath by Lukashenko's security forces? Or will most people be too afraid/apathetic/whatever to go out and protest in the first place?

[afleitch]

I for one hope there are demonstrations. The police will fight back. They will fire on the crowd and undoubtedly people will die and be mamed in the aftermanth. But it will be a fight for democracy. But Lukashenko does not have as big a 'security blanket' of advisors and lackeys as he would think. Belarussian politics could turn on a knife and I believe he will fall from power if protestors hold their nerve.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Lukashenko's main challenger in the election: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alaksandar_Milinkievi%C4%8D

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

European governments all over are basically already condemning it as a sham. Lukashenko has also shut down almost all independent media outlets in the country and imprisoned the writers of opposition newspapers. The opposition has almost no voice now. Plus unlike Ukraine, where the Parliament and Supreme Court revolted against the election results, Lukashenko thoroughly controls all of the government here, so don't count on it. We'll have to see how the opposition reacts afterwords, but any massacres of demonstrators will cause more pressure and isolation on Lukashenko's regime. We'll have to see, but Lukashenko is far more entrenched than the governments in Ukraine, Georgia and even Kyrgzystan that fell.

[Middle-aged Europe]

According to the exit polls, Lukashenko has won with about 83% of the vote. His main opponent Alexander Milinkevich supposedly received only 2%.

http://edition.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/europe/03/19/belarus.exitpolls.ap/index.html


At least he should have rigged the election in a way that the result appears to be somewhat realistic.

[afleitch]

At least he should have rigged the election in a way that the result appears to be somewhat realistic.

Exactly. No one would bat an eyelid if he rigged it 60-40

[Jens]

One of my friend are in Belorussia. I can't wait to hear him tell about what devious ways the election was rigged. Several Danish observers has been either expelled or denided access to the country.

[ag]

At least he should have rigged the election in a way that the result appears to be somewhat realistic.

Exactly. No one would bat an eyelid if he rigged it 60-40

They wouldn't have to rig for that - 60% is smthg Lukashenka could have gotten honestly, however sad that is. Official results: 82.5% for Luka, on a 92.5% turnout, 6% for Milinkevich. Attempts at demonstration are being suppressed - so far that's murky, but I would expect the same overkill in force as in "counting". Not much to say.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Why doesn't Lukashenko just allow free elections anyway? He wins them and the EU and US would probably quit with the pressure. Rigging them just results in being ostrachized. He'd be a lot better off as a Juan Peron, an authoritarian, but democratic president, than as the plain old dictator he is now.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

This one has a name already: the Denim Revolution.

The protests are coming. Lukashenko claims the protestors are part of an attempt to stage a violent coup to overthrow the government, and thus any protestors arrested will be considered terrorists and could face the death penalty.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Protests still going round the clock. The police haven't done much so far, apparentely they might be scared of the backlash. Also, Germany is considering sanctions.

The first cracks in Lukashenko's regime might be forming.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Protests still going round the clock. The police haven't done much so far, apparentely they might be scared of the backlash. Also, Germany is considering sanctions.

The first cracks in Lukashenko's regime might be forming.

I'm not so sure... there are reports that 400 dissidents were arrested so far. Also, the number of protesters in Minsk seems to get smaller and not larger. Apparently, the square were the protests take place is surrounded by Lukashenko's security forces. No one gets in, and those who try to leave the square are instantly arrested.

[ag]

Protests still going round the clock. The police haven't done much so far, apparentely they might be scared of the backlash. Also, Germany is considering sanctions.

The first cracks in Lukashenko's regime might be forming.

Don't exaggerate. The most that can be said, a small public opposition has formed that might, within some time, if given a chance and not entirely extinguished lead to something. The problem w/ Luka is that he is still generally popular, and that even in the capital city there might not be a majority of those who'd prefer the opposition to him. For a revolution to happen, the gov't must be more unpopular than the opposition, and that is just not the case here. This is a docile country w/ a docile populace, nothing will happen, unfortunately.

[ag]

I've looked up some Russian-language Belorussian blogs (e.g., by observers at polling places, etc.). Seems like even in Minsk "honest" results give Luka an advantage, though, of course, not the 80+% of the official results. At a run-off-the-mill polling booth where the Russian observer was one of the last remaining liberal Russian MP's, who claims he forced them to report honestly, the results are Lukashenka 55%, Milinkevich 25%. At another booth an opposition observer reports that among those who voted by turning up at the booth Lukashenka got 540 votes, Milinkevich got 350, "Against all of the above" 107 votes, Kozulin 73 votes and 22 ballots where invalid. Of course, depressingly and unsurprisingly, at the same booth a lot of the people "requested" to vote at home, where there were no observers. And these "went" 355 votes for Lukashenka, 26 for Kozulin, 25 for Milinkevich, 3 "against all". A lot of these "homemade" Lukashenka ballots where "cast" at a local student dorm, which also was the address w/ the highest proportion of "home voters" - clearly, the dorm management did its best to secure against students misbehaving.

To sum up, Lukashenka would have easily gotten 55-65% against the divided opposition had he run the voting part honestly. Why he didn't, is another question.

[Middle-aged Europe]

A possible motivation for Lukashenko to rig the election:

Would he have won with only 55% this would have implied the possibility that, at least in theory, he can be beaten. This could have made the opposition even more self-confident and maybe they would succeed in defeating him in four or perhaps in eight years. For someone who clearly intends to rule the country for the rest of his life this is a frightening perspective. So it's better to deal with this problem now, before it gets out of hand.

He wanted a "broad mandate" to show that he has the unconditional support of the overwhelming majority of the Belorusian people and that only a tiny minority of unpatriotic traitors and US/EU-controlled troublemakers is actually unsatisfied with his rule.

[ag]

A possible motivation for Lukashenko to rig the election:

Would he have won with only 55% this would have implied the possibility that, at least in theory, he can be beaten. This could have made the opposition even more self-confident and maybe they would succeed in defeating him in four or perhaps in eight years. For someone who clearly intends to rule the country for the rest of his life this is a frightening perspective. So it's better to deal with this problem now, before it gets out of hand.

He wanted a "broad mandate" to show that he has the unconditional support of the overwhelming majority of the Belorusian people and that only a tiny minority of unpatriotic traitors and US/EU-controlled troublemakers is actually unsatisfied with his rule.

More likely, it's the usual problem of the planned economy. You aren't going to be the one w/ the worst results if you are a local governor, are you? So you set the plan for your subordinates, who should report what, and the subordinates, of course, are expected to "overfulfill" the plan - and they also compete against each other. A typical example of sociallist competition in action. That's how they produce - i.e., record production of - TV sets and tractors as well. Hence the "stellar performances" of the Belorussian economy and the Belorussian president.

[minionofmidas]

IIRC last time around he claimed 73% and outside sources  - somewhere close to Putin IIRC - guessed at 59% unrigged ... I may be remembering wrongly though ...

[Middle-aged Europe]

After Lukashenko's security forces violently supressed some of the demonstrations yesterday, Alexander Milinkievic has announced that the opposition will stop their public protests for now.