Illinois Governor poll

[Frodo]

Blagojevich, Topinka win Ill. primaries

By CHRISTOPHER WILLS
ASSOCIATED PRESS WRITER

CHICAGO -- Democratic Gov. Rod Blagojevich easily won his primary despite being potentially vulnerable amid corruption allegations, and Republican state Treasurer Judy Baar Topinka earned a shot to defeat him in the fall.

Also, a former Army helicopter pilot who lost both legs in a 2004 grenade attack in Iraq narrowly won the Democratic nomination for the House seat occupied by retiring GOP Rep. Henry Hyde.

The gubernatorial campaigns were overshadowed by a federal corruption trial involving the last GOP governor, George Ryan, whose fate is now in the hands of a jury.

Five Republicans fought hard for the nomination, despite scandal and infighting in their own party. In the end, two political insiders will fight it out for the governor's seat, pitting Blagojevich's record on education and health care against claims by Topinka that he mismanaged state money and used his office to reward political pals.

Topinka, known for her raucous sense of humor and miserly spending habits, is the former head of the Illinois Republican Party and the only Republican holding statewide office. She beat Jim Oberweis, a dairy owner and investment manager, amid allegations from GOP rivals that she was part of a network of corrupt politicians.

"Together, we are going to go out there and make sure we give Rod an early retirement," she told supporters. "We're going to restore honesty to this government so that people can be proud that they live in Illinois."

With 10,303 of 11,700 precincts counted in unofficial returns in the Republican primary, Topinka had 269,565 votes, or 38 percent, to 225,395 votes, or 32 percent, for Oberweis. State Sen. Bill Brady of Bloomington had 19 percent and Ron Gidwitz, a Chicago businessman, had 11 percent. Internet journalist Andy Martin trailed with less than 1 percent.

Blagojevich has denied doing anything unethical by giving state jobs and contracts to political supporters. He did little campaigning and rarely acknowledged his opponent, shrugging off a primary challenge from former Chicago alderman Edwin Eisendrath. With 10,303 of 11,700 precincts counted in unofficial returns, Blagojevich had 70 percent, or 585,525 votes, to Edwin Eisendrath's 30 percent, or 249,868 votes.

Eisendrath, a former Chicago alderman, mounted a limited, low-budget campaign that accused Blagojevich of running a corrupt, incompetent administration. He focused on Blagojevich's practice of awarding jobs and contracts to campaign donors.

"I believe we will move forward by staying committed to the values and priorities of helping hardworking people," Blagojevich said in a victory speech.

In the 6th District Congressional race, former Army Maj. L. Tammy Duckworth narrowly defeated Christine Cegelis to win the Democratic congressional primary nomination for the suburban Chicago district seat held by the retiring Hyde. The 37-year-old, Thailand-born Duckworth had been heavily recruited by Democrats eager to give the national party more credibility on security issues. She lost her legs in combat two years ago and recovered in a military hospital in Washington, D.C.

With 99 percent of precincts reporting, Duckworth was declared a winner with 44 percent, or 14,019 votes, to Cegelis' 40 percent, or 12,939 votes.

In the 8th District, businessman David McSweeney won the Republican nomination over attorney Kathy Salvi and four other candidates. He will challenge freshman Democratic U.S. Rep. Melissa Bean. McSweeney had 23,700 votes, or 43 percent, with Salvi at 18,245 votes, or 33 percent, with 97 percent of the votes in.

[Flying Dog]

Blagojavich-51%
Topinka-47%

[Speed of Sound]

Im hoping Rod wins, but its gonna be a tough race.

[Soaring Eagle]

I predict that the campaign will be interesting, but Blagojevich will win, but not break 60%. Maybe 55%, but not 60%.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

I'm hoping for a Topinka victory and I think recent polls indicate that's a possibility.

Moderate Republicans make the best Governors and hopefully Illinois will join Connecticut and Hawaii in appreciating that fact

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Blagojevich will narrowly pull this off due to the extreme incompetance of the Illinois GOP. When your opponent's campaign is being ran by people dumb enough to think bringing Alan Keyes in is a good idea, well that says it all.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

Blagojevich will narrowly pull this off due to the extreme incompetance of the Illinois GOP. When your opponent's campaign is being ran by people dumb enough to think bringing Alan Keyes in is a good idea, well that says it all.

I don't think they *wanted* to bring Alan Keyes on... they just didn't have much of a choice.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Blagojevich will narrowly pull this off due to the extreme incompetance of the Illinois GOP. When your opponent's campaign is being ran by people dumb enough to think bringing Alan Keyes in is a good idea, well that says it all.

I don't think they *wanted* to bring Alan Keyes on... they just didn't have much of a choice.

There were other people offering to run. They also could've just left Ryan's name on the ballot and considered the race done. They had absolutely no chance whatsoever of winning the seat at that point anyway, no reason to bring in a carpetbagging nutjob who did nothing but massively hurt them downticket, and possibly cost them a House seat.

[muon2]

You may need to add a third choice to the poll. The one independent in the legislature, Sen. Meeks, has been rumoring an independent run for governor. This week's primary results apparently have not changed that according to the Sun-Times.

The rumors have also suggested that this is primarily a bargaining chip for Chicago's South Side, but if there is an independent run it could have a huge impact on the vote for Blagojevich. OTOH, any agreement between the Gov and Meeks could have an impact with other voter groups.

[ian]

Topinka will win, I think.  I'm pulling for Blagojevich, but either would do a good job as the governor of Illinois.

[© tweed]

Time to fire up the ABB machine for another go-around

[Sam Spade]

A lot of the prediction will simply be based on whether the Cook County ppl want to keep Blago or change to a Ryan protege like Topinka.

We'll see.

[Republican Michigander]

Nothing like a choice between those couple of jokers. Lyin' Ryan's protege or the current joker.

I'd probably be voting for the libertarian in that race.

[Soaring Eagle]

Blagojevich will narrowly pull this off due to the extreme incompetance of the Illinois GOP. When your opponent's campaign is being ran by people dumb enough to think bringing Alan Keyes in is a good idea, well that says it all.

I don't think they *wanted* to bring Alan Keyes on... they just didn't have much of a choice.

Alan Keyes became the laughingstock of the entire state after he became Obama's opponent. I'm serious, most people took him as a joke. The IL GOP can't get it together. If they could, Blagojevich would be toast, but they can't.

[muon2]

The talk of Sen. Meeks making an independent run for Gov moved up a notch. Here is part of the story from the Chicago Tribune.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[minionofmidas]

Not making a prediction yet.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

Time to fire up the ABB machine for another go-around

Anybody but Blagojevich!

[muon2]

Today's Rasmussen poll puts the race at a toss-up: Topinka 43%, Blagojevich 41%. Unfavorables also work against Blagojevich (53%) vs Topinka (44%). The Gov's job disapproval is even worse at 59%.

[muon2]

There's a new independent poll out from the Glengarriff group. The following quote is excerpted from the AP as posted by the Belleville News Democrat:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

A detailed link with the above quote and internal poll data is available through the Capitol Fax Blog.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Topinka--it will be close, but I she'll slide in.

[muon2]

Topinka--it will be close, but I she'll slide in.

As I posted in the SUSA thread, the potential third party campaign from Sen./Rev. Meeks seems to be gone. It looks like a two party race, assuming that the Gov make his education funding plan known soon. The details of that plan and the deal may go some way to shape the upcoming race.

[Nym90]

I still think Blagojevich will sneak through; the Democratic tide will be too strong in such a Democratic state.

Topinka certainly is a strong candidate who could well win, however.

[HardRCafé]

Topinka certainly is a strong candidate who could well win, however.

Eh?  Her negatives are almost as high as his.

[Nym90]

Topinka certainly is a strong candidate who could well win, however.

Eh?  Her negatives are almost as high as his.

True, though considering how Democratic Illinois is, her numbers certainly aren't bad (unless Blagojevich is just that horrible...).

[Boris]

I'm still leaning towards a Topinka victory. Illinois may be Democratic at the federal level, but the GOP has dominated the governor's office for the past quarter of a century. Ultimately, I believe that this race will be a referendum on Blagojevich; if Blago's approval rating is above 50% on election day, he wins. If it's below, he loses.