Survey USA 50 State Senate Poll

[Smash255]

No real suprises

Conrad & Collins at the top with 72% (Conrad with slightly higher net approval)
Nelson-NE, Snowe & Obama also at 70% or greater.

7 of the top 10 in overall approval and 7 of top 9 in Net Approval are Democrats.  9 of the bottom 10 are Republicans

Three of those with neg Approval, all Republicans 

Santorum 43-48
Bunning 39-47
Burns 38-52

http://surveyusa.com/50State2006/100USSenator060323Approval.htm


Burns is in DEEP

[Jacobtm]

It's insane to look at the fact that Burns is the most disliked Senator in the country, and then to see that he's only trailing his opponents by 3 or so points.

[Alcon]

It's insane to look at the fact that Burns is the most disliked Senator in the country, and then to see that he's only trailing his opponents by 3 or so points.

He's only down by 14, though, and in a very Republican state.  His current margin of trailing makes sense.

Schwarzenegger, on the other hand, is a different story.

[Smash255]

It's insane to look at the fact that Burns is the most disliked Senator in the country, and then to see that he's only trailing his opponents by 3 or so points.

What other polls have their been other than the often bizzare & at times very GOP leaning Rasmussen???

[Frodo]

So far, so good:



As long as Maria Cantwell keeps herself at or above 50%, she should be fine. 

[Jacobtm]

It's insane to look at the fact that Burns is the most disliked Senator in the country, and then to see that he's only trailing his opponents by 3 or so points.

What other polls have their been other than the often bizzare & at times very GOP leaning Rasmussen???

I've only seen Rasmussen ones, actually. But what evidence is there that they are GOP leaning? Just because Republicans aren't polling low, doesn't mean that Rasmussen is biased; it could be that people just like Republicans more than you would assume.

[Smash255]

It's insane to look at the fact that Burns is the most disliked Senator in the country, and then to see that he's only trailing his opponents by 3 or so points.

What other polls have their been other than the often bizzare & at times very GOP leaning Rasmussen???

I've only seen Rasmussen ones, actually. But what evidence is there that they are GOP leaning? Just because Republicans aren't polling low, doesn't mean that Rasmussen is biased; it could be that people just like Republicans more than you would assume.

Rasmussen was accurate in 2004, but his 2000 results were abysmal (he had Bush winning the PV by 9).  He has had Bush several points (usually between 4-7) above the approval of pretty much every other poll for over a year.  His polls have taken some strange swings than in some states doesn't relate to any of the other polls which are out.

[Gabu]

He's only down by 14, though, and in a very Republican state.

Republican?  I'm not sure if I'd call it that.

Here are the current office-holders in Montana:

Governor - D
Lieutenant Governor - R
Federal Senators - 1 D, 1 R
Federal Representatives - 1 R
State Senators - 27 D, 23 R
State Representatives - 50 D, 50 R

Montana might have a slight tilt towards the Republicans higher up, and especially during presidential elections, but the lower you go, the more Democratic it gets.  State politics are basically entirely driven by the Democrats, in fact, as they hold the governor's mansion and control both sections of the Montana legislature.  If Conrad Burns is ousted in 2006, Montana would be one single seat away (Rehberg's) from being a one-party Democratic state in every respect but presidential elections.

[Sam Spade]

It's insane to look at the fact that Burns is the most disliked Senator in the country, and then to see that he's only trailing his opponents by 3 or so points.

What other polls have their been other than the often bizzare & at times very GOP leaning Rasmussen???

I've only seen Rasmussen ones, actually. But what evidence is there that they are GOP leaning? Just because Republicans aren't polling low, doesn't mean that Rasmussen is biased; it could be that people just like Republicans more than you would assume.

Rasmussen was accurate in 2004, but his 2000 results were abysmal (he had Bush winning the PV by 9).  He has had Bush several points (usually between 4-7) above the approval of pretty much every other poll for over a year.  His polls have taken some strange swings than in some states doesn't relate to any of the other polls which are out.

Rasmussen changed his methodology in Presidential polls between 2000 and 2004, going to a hard weight a la Zogby.

None of this has anything to do with his Senate/Governors polls which are totally unweighted.  Their weakness is simply the fact they are conducted within the span of one day, which should naturally lead to a greater variation in numbers.

[Alcon]

He's only down by 14, though, and in a very Republican state.

Republican?  I'm not sure if I'd call it that.

Here are the current office-holders in Montana:

Governor - D
Lieutenant Governor - R
Federal Senators - 1 D, 1 R
Federal Representatives - 1 R
State Senators - 27 D, 23 R
State Representatives - 50 D, 50 R

Montana might have a slight tilt towards the Republicans higher up, and especially during presidential elections, but the lower you go, the more Democratic it gets.  State politics are basically entirely driven by the Democrats, in fact, as they hold the governor's mansion and control both sections of the Montana legislature.  If Conrad Burns is ousted in 2006, Montana would be one single seat away (Rehberg's) from being a one-party Democratic state in every respect but presidential elections.

Montana only started voting Democratic because the Republican Party is so incompetent.  Republicans have the registration advantage and self-identification advantage.  Your point is well-taken, though.

[Gabu]

Montana only started voting Democratic because the Republican Party is so incompetent.  Republicans have the registration advantage and self-identification advantage.  Your point is well-taken, though.

Yeah, but judging by Burns' approval ratings, Montanans don't think he's all that more competent than the rest of them.

Also, I'm not saying that Montana is a Democratic state, only that I would not particularly call it "very Republican".  Perhaps there are more Republicans in the state than Democrats, but that evidently doesn't necessary translate into all that much of an advantage for Republicans at the state level.

[Adlai Stevenson]

At least Landrieu is leading 53%-42% in Louisiana. Obama's approval has gone down 91%-7% amongst Black voters to 77%-21% why?

[Smash255]

At least Landrieu is leading 53%-42% in Louisiana. Obama's approval has gone down 91%-7% amongst Black voters to 77%-21% why?

The overall subsets are just that subsets and as a result generally have a small sample size & higher margin of error

[Ben.]

At least Landrieu is leading 53%-42% in Louisiana.

Thank god! As I argued some time back her response to Katrina may have helped her expand her base of support in the state and certianly she's a very active Senator... then again after a narrow re-election in '02 who can blame her, though if the Dems tack to the left in '08 she will probably be brought down by the presidential ticket, while a  Bayh or Warner led ticket would probablya actually help her and she might even survive will Hillary in the top spot. 

[HardRCafé]

At least Landrieu is leading 53%-42% in Louisiana. Obama's approval has gone down 91%-7% amongst Black voters to 77%-21% why?

Alexi Giannoulias?

[WalterMitty]

john kerry only 53%.  ouch.

[Beet]

john kerry only 53%.  ouch.

He's had ups and downs in this poll but he's always been between 51-57% approve and 38-43% disapprove. The problem is he can't just go back to the senate after 2004 and pretend as if everything is as usual. He's never going to be able to shake the loser image that he acquired after 2004. In many ways it's better not to run at all than to run unsuccessfully ( a study of perceptions of Adlai Stevenson, for example, found that most people thought highly of him in 1952 but more people thought poorly of him in 1956, mentioning things like his divorce which occured before 1952) .

I'm more concerned with why Paul Sarbanes is so low.

[TheresNoMoney]

It's insane to look at the fact that Burns is the most disliked Senator in the country, and then to see that he's only trailing his opponents by 3 or so points.

Neither of his opponents have high name recognition yet.

[Democratic Hawk]

At 58% approval, it could very well be the first time Evan Bayh has slipped below 60 (I'd need to look back further to be certain). Still, his disapproval rating seems to be flatlining at around 30

Dave

[ian]

What's the deal with Lautenberg's fluxuations?

[Soaring Eagle]

What happened to Voinovich? What exactly did he do wrong?

[© tweed]

What happened to Voinovich? What exactly did he do wrong?

Ohio just hates everybody.

[Jacobtm]

What happened to Voinovich? What exactly did he do wrong?

I don't know if Voinovich did anything wrong specifically, but Ohio is totally controlled by Republicans, and massive corruption and all sorts of dispicable sh**t has been popping out of the woodworks, making Ohio voters very biased against Republicans in general.

[Soaring Eagle]

What happened to Voinovich? What exactly did he do wrong?

I don't know if Voinovich did anything wrong specifically, but Ohio is totally controlled by Republicans, and massive corruption and all sorts of dispicable sh**t has been popping out of the woodworks, making Ohio voters very biased against Republicans in general.

That must explain DeWine, too.

[Jacobtm]

What happened to Voinovich? What exactly did he do wrong?

I don't know if Voinovich did anything wrong specifically, but Ohio is totally controlled by Republicans, and massive corruption and all sorts of dispicable sh**t has been popping out of the woodworks, making Ohio voters very biased against Republicans in general.

That must explain DeWine, too.

DeWine is an exception, plus his opponent sucks.