London 'under water by 2100' as Antarctica crumbles into the sea
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  London 'under water by 2100' as Antarctica crumbles into the sea
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Author Topic: London 'under water by 2100' as Antarctica crumbles into the sea  (Read 3240 times)
Beet
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« on: March 23, 2006, 09:23:13 PM »

A snarky "sky is falling" comment is inevitable in a thread like this so I might as well pre-empt it, but it's a story worth posting anyway.

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DOZENS of the world’s cities, including London and New York, could be flooded by the end of the century, according to research which suggests that global warming will increase sea levels more rapidly than was previously thought.
The first study to combine computer models of rising temperatures with records of the ancient climate has indicated that sea levels could rise by up to 20ft (6m) by 2100, placing millions of people at risk.

The threat comes from melting ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica, which scientists behind the research now believe are on track to release vast volumes of water significantly more quickly than older models have predicted. Their analysis of events between 129,000 and 116,000 years ago, when the Arctic last warmed to temperatures forecast for 2100, shows that there could be large rises in sea level.


 
While the Greenland ice sheet is expected to start melting as summer temperatures in the Arctic rise by 3C degrees to 5C (5.4F-9F), most models suggest that the ice sheets of Antarctica will remain more stable.

The historical data, however, show that the last time that Greenland became this warm, the sea level rise generated by meltwater destabilised the Antarctic ice, leading to a much higher increase than can be explained by Arctic ice alone.

That means that the models of sea-level rise used to predict an increase of up to 3ft by 2100 may have significantly underestimated its ultimate extent, which could be as great as 20ft.

Such a rise would threaten cities such as London, New York, Bombay and Tokyo. Large parts of the Netherlands, Bangladesh and Florida would be inundated, and even smaller rises would flood extreme low-lying areas, such as several Pacific islands and New Orleans.

“Although the focus of our work is polar, the implications are global,” said Bette Otto-Bliesner, of the US National Centre for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado, who led the study. “These ice sheets melted before and sea levels rose. The warmth needed isn’t that much above present conditions.”

Her colleague, Jonathan Overpeck, of the University of Arizona, said: “This is a real eye-opener set of results. The last time the Arctic was significantly warmer than the present day, the Greenland ice sheet melted back the equivalent of two to three metres (6ft-10ft) of sea level. Contrary to what was previously believed, the research suggests the Antarctic ice sheet also melted substantially, contributing another 6ft to 10ft of sea level rise.”

The findings, which are published today in the journal Science, have emerged from a study that used data from ancient coral reefs, ice cores and other natural records to reconstruct the climate during the last gap between Ice Ages. In this interglacial period, between 129,000 and 116,000 years ago, temperatures in the Arctic were between 3C and 5C above present levels — a similar level to that predicted for the end of this century.

The scientists found that meltwater from Greenland raised the sea level by up to 11ft, but coral records showed that the total global rise was between 13ft and 20ft. Dr Overpeck said that the melting of Antarctic ice sheets was the most likely explanation. As sea levels rose, the floating ice shelves off the coast of the continent would have become more likely to break up. That in turn would have allowed glaciers to dump more ice from the continent itself into the sea.

He said that this was particularly worrying at present as the base of the West Antarctic ice sheet lay below sea level, which would allow ice to escape to the sea easily.

Several recent studies have indicated that the Greenland ice sheet, which contains enough water to raise sea levels by 23ft, and the West Antarctic sheet, which holds enough for a 20ft rise, are thinning. Both are expected to take several centuries to melt completely, but could release substantial quantities of water by 2100.

Dr Overpeck said that the results added to the urgency of measures to control the greenhouse gas emissions contributing to global warming.
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WMS
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« Reply #1 on: March 24, 2006, 03:24:30 PM »

So you wanna go back in time and stop the Industrial Revolution to stop this from happening? Grin Because that's about the only way to have stopped this...and that last sentence in the article misses this point. Pretty much all the human-caused greenhouse gas emissions over time have and will impacted global warming already and future emissions (and let's not neglect the contributions of the Chinese and Indians (and the rest of the "developing world" for that matter) to this like the Kyoto Accord does Roll Eyes ), if cut, will take a very long time to effect change, certainly longer than necessary to stave off the picture the article indicates. Get used to this, if it isn't exaggerated...
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Undisguised Sockpuppet
Straha
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« Reply #2 on: March 24, 2006, 03:42:04 PM »

simply move the populations out of coastal areas.
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MODU
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« Reply #3 on: March 24, 2006, 03:45:16 PM »

simply move the populations out of coastal areas.

Just think of all the new beach front development we can come up with.  Smiley
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Straha
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« Reply #4 on: March 24, 2006, 03:46:15 PM »

Precisely. Once the icecaps melt completely the world will be a better place. No more cold winters here.
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MODU
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« Reply #5 on: March 24, 2006, 03:49:13 PM »


hahaha . . . True, but I'll miss Ray Nagin making all of his silly New Orleans comments once it is under water for good.
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Undisguised Sockpuppet
Straha
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« Reply #6 on: March 24, 2006, 03:50:23 PM »


hahaha . . . True, but I'll miss Ray Nagin making all of his silly New Orleans comments once it is under water for good.
They'll rebuild new orleans in texas or something once the icecaps melt and the seas rise 111 meters
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #7 on: March 24, 2006, 04:00:03 PM »

Another reason we gotta get off of this place.
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MODU
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« Reply #8 on: March 24, 2006, 04:16:19 PM »


They'll rebuild new orleans in texas or something once the icecaps melt and the seas rise 111 meters

Nah, I'm thinking West Virginia!  hahaha
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Straha
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« Reply #9 on: March 24, 2006, 04:22:14 PM »


They'll rebuild new orleans in texas or something once the icecaps melt and the seas rise 111 meters

Nah, I'm thinking West Virginia!  hahaha
IT doesn't matter where it is because the northeast's climate would be lik the carolinas once the icecaps melt
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J. J.
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« Reply #10 on: March 24, 2006, 04:32:49 PM »
« Edited: March 24, 2006, 04:43:13 PM by J. J. »

I wonder if they every heard of the borough and parliamentary constituency of Dunwich?

See this link for a map:

http://www.streetmap.co.uk/newmap.srf?x=648250&y=270750&z=1&sv=648250,270750&st=4&ar=N&mapp=newmap.srf&searchp=newsearch.srf&ax=647548&ay=270550
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Jacobtm
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« Reply #11 on: March 24, 2006, 04:33:51 PM »

So Nebraska's gonna see a ton of immigration pretty soon.
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StatesRights
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« Reply #12 on: March 25, 2006, 01:50:26 PM »

I love junk science! Smiley
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Michael Z
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« Reply #13 on: March 25, 2006, 02:01:33 PM »

Ha. Easy. We'll just do what we've always done to combat floods, ie. bring some Dutch engineers over to build a state-of-the-art dam to save London. Failing that, construct a huge f-off wall around all of Britain (except for East Anglia Grin).
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StatesRights
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« Reply #14 on: March 25, 2006, 02:17:20 PM »

Ha. Easy. We'll just do what we've always done to combat floods, ie. bring some Dutch engineers over to build a state-of-the-art dam to save London. Failing that, construct a huge f-off wall around all of Britain (except for East Anglia Grin).

Maybe you all could build something like they had in the movie Waterworld. ha Well the good news is at least Miami will be underwater. Smiley
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Citizen James
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« Reply #15 on: March 25, 2006, 09:09:17 PM »

Eh, we didn't need florida anyway.  Consider it a form of reclaiming the everglades.  The west coast is pretty mountanous, so a 10-20 feet rise isn't going to come very far inland in most parts (though PCH may be toast).

Of course the fact that a 10-20 ft rise in sea level isn't waterworld doesn't mean we should ignore the problem either.  a longer period of warmer water in the central atlantic means a longer huricane season (with the flooding heading further inland), but most of the places hit by huricanes tend to be highly republican anyway, so they deserve to lose their homes over and over again.
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memphis
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« Reply #16 on: March 26, 2006, 03:29:09 AM »

Key word in the article is COULD. Honestly, anything could happen. Tomorrow, Iraq COULD become a shining beacon of peace and democracy in the Mideast. It's just not all that likely.
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Beet
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« Reply #17 on: March 26, 2006, 03:36:34 AM »

Key word in the article is COULD. Honestly, anything could happen. Tomorrow, Iraq COULD become a shining beacon of peace and democracy in the Mideast. It's just not all that likely.

The point is that there is reason to believe this will happen.


And?
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #18 on: March 26, 2006, 05:39:30 AM »

The point is that there is reason to believe this will happen.

Don't be silly. There is perhaps reason to believe that there is a chance that this will happen, just as there is a reason to believe that several other things might happen.

And claims along these general lines are hardly new or even newsworthy; I have some stuff from the early '90's claiming similer stuff, actually some of it was much more severe. I remember seeing a news item in about '91 (or was it a few years later?) that basically said that Hull would be largely underwater by 2005 (can't remember the exact date, but it was something like that). It isn't.
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Michael Z
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« Reply #19 on: March 26, 2006, 05:59:38 AM »

I remember seeing a news item in about '91 (or was it a few years later?) that basically said that Hull would be largely underwater by 2005

You make that sound like it's a bad thing.
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« Reply #20 on: March 26, 2006, 03:51:45 PM »


And the chance of Al Gore being the next POTUS is more likely then this scenario.
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Frodo
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« Reply #21 on: March 26, 2006, 03:54:29 PM »
« Edited: March 26, 2006, 03:56:26 PM by Frodo »

Another doom & gloom prediction by scientists who, just a generation ago, were warning about an impending Ice Age.  Roll Eyes

Who knows what they will be saying a generation from now?  They'll probably be warning about London being under two miles of ice next time. 
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J. J.
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« Reply #22 on: March 26, 2006, 10:23:49 PM »
« Edited: March 26, 2006, 10:36:28 PM by J. J. »

Another doom & gloom prediction by scientists who, just a generation ago, were warning about an impending Ice Age.  Roll Eyes

Who knows what they will be saying a generation from now?  They'll probably be warning about London being under two miles of ice next time. 

I saw George Will pull out a quote from the 1975 NYT article referring to the possibility of glaciers rolling across the the northern US in the middle of the 21st Century.

The greatest estimate on sea level increase data that I've seen 3 mm per year.  If it keeps up at that rate, by 2100, about 11.5 inches higher.  Now, sea level has been increasing slightly for the last 2000 years, so not all of that is man made, and the 3mm is the highest estimate I've seen.  Even if this doubled, this still less than two feet by the end of this century.  That's not exactly Waterworld.

Here is the chart for 120 years:

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Cubby
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« Reply #23 on: March 27, 2006, 02:07:31 AM »

"The ice age is coming, the sun's zooming in
Engines stop running, the wheat is growing thin
A nuclear error, but I have no fear
Cause London is drowning and I, I live by the river"

Who knew The Clash were scientists as well Wink

Is that song about Margaret Thatcher or Nuclear Power, I can't tell.
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Beet
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« Reply #24 on: March 27, 2006, 03:20:05 AM »

The point is that there is reason to believe this will happen.

Don't be silly. There is perhaps reason to believe that there is a chance that this will happen, just as there is a reason to believe that several other things might happen.

So?

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

Source? It seems like your memory is a bit convoluted. If you can't even remember the year I wouldn't put too much credit into it.


That is your unsubstantiated opinion, to which you are entitled, just as you are entitled to any opinion, as long as you admit you have no evidence for it.

Another doom & gloom prediction by scientists who, just a generation ago, were warning about an impending Ice Age.  Roll Eyes

Of course, scientists don't have any credibility at all. Politicians and priests have contributed much more to society!

I saw George Will pull out a quote from the 1975 NYT article referring to the possibility of glaciers rolling across the the northern US in the middle of the 21st Century.

And of course, George Will is an unbiased observer. We all know that George Will has no agenda. Let us all let George Will decide what to do for George Will only cares about scientific truth. He's far better than those opinion columnists Roll Eyes

And as for the article you cite, I found it easily (WashPost Dec 23, 2004, A23), and it never cites "glaciers rolling across the the northern US in the middle of the 21st Century," which just shows an intellectual dishonesty on your part. I love the fact how not only did you try to portray George Will with equivalence of a professional scientific journal, you also dishonestly embellished and changed his quote to fit your own ends.

As for the rest of your post, its all based from your reading of wikipedia's article on sea levels. Which is fine, except that it doesn't address the Otto-Bliesner, Overpeck papers. Otto-Bliesner, Overpeck are well aware of the past data on sea levels, which is based on past data on climate. What you conveniently skipped over on wikipedia however is evidence that temperatures are rising much faster now than they were throughout most of the time period portrayed on your graphic. What Otto-Bliesner, Overpeck are concerned with is not historical extrapolation of 20th century trends, which is a logical fallacy, but estimations on how temperatures will affect sea levels based on examination of archeological data in combination with climate estimates to see what sea levels were at the last time that the climate temperature was 3-5C higher than it is today, the last interglacial period. Their projections do not apply to now but to where temperature is estimated to be within 100 years. And here is some more stuff to chew on from wikipedia:











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