Ukrainian Parliamentary elections

[ag]

Elections are tomorrow. Most likely, a very split verdict. The eastern-based and Yanukovich-led "Party of Regions" is likely to come first with about a third of the vote or more, especially given the expected hire turnout in the East. The old "orange" camp is represented by several parties, the largest of which, Yuscheniko's "Our Ukraine" and Timoshenko's "Ylia Timoshenko's Bloc" should be competing for the second spot. Overall, there are 45 parties on the ballot, so even w/ a low 3% threshold for representation, a lot of these are going to be disappointed.

Overall, I would consider Yanukovich to outperform expectations if he gets over a third of the vote. Given the split in the orange camp, I would consider it a success for Yuschenko if Our Ukraine gets ahead of Yulia Timoshenko's Bloc (the other big "orange" party) and gets close to 25%

Some polls (no claims about reliability implied - just dumm internet search):

PUSK. sample 6749 (!), of which over 90% responded, earlier this month; they report a very small  MOE  (1.2%) based on the sample, but the very sample size - huge - makes me doubt their professionalism anyway.

"Whom are you going to be voting for in the elections for the Verkhovna Rada on March 26 ,

Party of Regions (leader: Yanukovich) 21,3%
Our Ukraine (pro-Yuschenko, formally led by PM Yekhanurov) 15,7%
Yulia Timoshenko's Bloc 12,6%
Sociallist Party (leader: Moroz)
Greens  6,7% (?! Who's ever heard of these guys?)
Communist Party (leader: Simonenko)
Pora-PRP (another "orange" splinter, I believe it is pro-Yuschenko)
Litvin's Bloc 2.9%
Natalya Vitrenko's Bloc "People's Opposition" 2.8%
Opposition Bloc "Ne Tak!" ("Not Yes!") 2%
Still don't know 19.5%

CSEP

March 2-6, nationwide sample of 2 thousand voters, MOE = 2.4%

Party of Regions 29.3%
Our Ukraine 16.7%
Yulia Timoshenko's Bloc 15.8%
Sociallist PArty 5.8%
Litvin's Bloc 4.9%
Communist Party 4.6%
Opposition bloc "Ne Tak!" 4.1%
Bloc of People's Democratic Parties 3.2%
"Viche" ("Assembley") 3.2%
Natalya Vitrenko's Bloc "People's Opposition" 2.9%
"Pora-PRP" 2.4%

Image-Control

March 3-5, nationwide sample of 20 thousand?!!, MOE 2%

Party of Regions 22.4%
Our Ukraine 17.9%
Yulia Timoshenko's Bloc 15.4%
Sociallist Party 6.2%
Litvin's Bloc 5.7%
Communist Party 4.8%
Opposition bloc "Ne Tak!" 4.2%
"Viche" 3.4%
Natalya Vitrenko's Bloc 3.2%
Pora-PRP 3.2%
Bloc of People's Democratic Parties 3.2.%
Still uncertain 5.7%

Sofia
Feb. 10-20, nationwide sample of 2 thousand, MOE= 2.3.%

Persentages of those who have chosen (in other polls persentages are of those polled, including those uncertain)
Party of Regions 32.1%
Our Ukraine 21.8%
Yulia Timoshenko's Bloc 15.8%
Sociallist Party 6.6%
Litvin's Bloc 6.5%
Communist Party 6.1%
Vitrenko's Bloc 1.9%
Pora-PRP 1.6%
"Ne Tak!" 1.3%
All other parties less than 1%

[ag]

Besides the national parliamentary vote, there are also elections into all regional and local councils (regional governors are appointed, not elected, so, in essence, these are elections for everything other than the Presidency).

Results should be available at http://www.cvk.gov.ua/vnd2006/w6p001e.html (in English), though the Ukrainian-language version at http://www.cvk.gov.ua/vnd2006/w6p001.html promises to be more detailed, if you can understand it (if you know some Russian, you just might get the sense of the major tables - it's like German and Dutch, close enough to be making educated Russian-based guesses even if you don't know any Ukrainian).

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I didn't know there was a Ukrainian Green Party. Seems odd they're only in one poll though. Hmmm.

Are the Socialists a splinter of the old Communist party? And who are Vitrenko and Litvin?

[Middle-aged Europe]

In addition, boxing world champion Vitali Klitschko is running for mayor of Kiev today.

[ag]

I didn't know there was a Ukrainian Green Party. Seems odd they're only in one poll though. Hmmm.

Are the Socialists a splinter of the old Communist party? And who are Vitrenko and Litvin?

The "greens" must be journalistic noise somewhere. I'd check, if  there is a minor party by that name, though, or if it is a color adopted by one of the more recognizable entities.

Sociallists have been a fixture of Ukrainian politics since independence, and they are generally larger and more important than Communists. I believe they are indeed an offshoot of the old Party in some sense.  In a hung parliament they are considered likely to support some sort of an "orange" coallition, though they might be a difficult partner. Vitrenko is an ultra-oddball anti-orange loose cannon - compared to her  Yanukovich is a Ukrainian nationalist and Communists are free-marketeers. Litvin, if I am not mistaken, is the outgoing parliamentary speaker, who wants to preserve some influence by getting in w/ his own bloc. He should be in somewhere in the center of the next Rada.

[ag]

There is indeed a Ukrainian Green Party. For what I know, it won't get 1% of the vote - where did that noise of one poll come, probably the poll was paid for by that  party.

[ag]

Some - so far illegal, since there is more than half an hour before the close of the polls -  exit polls show one major surprise: Vitrenko seems to be doing unexpectedly good, somewhere around 15% in many polls. The rest is run-off-the-mill: 25% for Yanukovich, 15-20% each for Yuschenko and Timoshenko. Another 32 minutes to go.

[ag]

Official exit polls:

National exit-poll. Data for 6 PM (4 hours before the end of polling). Nationwide sample of 18,000 voters:

Party of Regions (Yanukovich): 33.3%
Yulia Timoshenko's Bloc: 22.7%
Our Ukraine (Yuschenko): 13.5%
Sociallist Party 5.3%
Communist Party 3.5%
Vitrenko's Bloc 3.4%
Litvin's Bloc 2.7%
Viche 2.3%
Kostenko-Plusch Bloc (minor orange split) 1.72%
Pora-PRP (minor orange split) 1.37%

FOM Ukraina
Nationwide sample of 40,000
Party of Regions (Yanukovich) 31.4%
Yulia Timoshenko's Bloc 23%
Our Ukraine (Yuschenko) 17%
Sociallist Party 7%
Communist Party 3.9%
Vitrenko's Bloc 2.9%
Litvin's Bloc 2.5%

[ag]

Another exit-poll

All-Ukrainian sociological service.

Nationwide, 22.5 thousand voters

Party of Regions (Yanukovich) 27.5%
Yulia Timoshenko's Bloc 21.6%
Our Ukraine (Yuschenko) 15.5%
Sociallist Party 5.5%
Litvin's Bloc 5.1%
Communist Party 4.7%
Vitrenko's Bloc 3.2%
"Ne Tak!" 2.8%
Pora-PRP 2.7%
Viche 1.9%
Against all 1.8%

If these results hold, the following will be the distribution of seats:
Party of Regions: 149
Yulia Timoshenko's Bloc 117
Our Ukraine 84
Sociallist Party 30
Litvin's Bloc 28
Communists 25
Vitrenko's Bloc 17

[ag]

While waiting for the results.

Turnout seems to be, actually, somewhat higher in the West then in the East. The lowest turnout is in the South and East-Center - areas that at the last election where relatively weakly pro-Yanukovich. As of 8 PM local time (2 hours before the closing of the polls), the highest turnout was in Ternopil' in the far west - 67.5%, lowest in Mykolaiv in the South 48.83%. Nationwide the turnout was 58.96%. Of the major areas in the hardcore East Donets'k reported 61.19% and Luhansk 61.09%, while in the hardcore West L'viv has 65.12% and Ivano-Frankivs'k 64.68%. The city of Kyiv reported the averagish 58.85%.

By law the polling places have closed at 10 PM local time (an hour ago), but voters already inside the precincts at closure will still be able to vote, which means that in some places with long lines voting will continue almost till the morning.

[Voice from the South West]

Oh dear, I hope that I've got this wrong but it looks like the turkeys may just have voted for Christmas.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Looks like Timoshenko is much more popular than Yuschenko. Not suprising there. Is she likely to reclaim the positin of PM?

[ag]

Oh dear, I hope that I've got this wrong but it looks like the turkeys may just have voted for Christmas.

Actually, the results are not much different than in the presidential election, except that this time the orange camp is split fourway. If anything, Yanukovich and allies get fewer votes than back then, not more. Being relatively united, they get to enjoy the claim of the largest vote, but this is a PR election, not the US/Westminster-style FPTP.   Most likely outcome is some sort of Timoshenko-Yuschenko-Sociallist coalition government, much like in the immediate aftermath of the "orange revolution". Timoshenko, of course, is trying to reclaim the PM post, though if she insists too much she does run the risk of a Yanukovich-Yuschenko grand coallition against her.

[ag]

Looks like Timoshenko is much more popular than Yuschenko. Not suprising there. Is she likely to reclaim the positin of PM?

She is undoubtedly going to claim it. Whether she is successful depends on many things. I wouldn't even discard a Yanukovich-Yushchenko or Yanukovich-Timoshenko combine, though all polls show this would be very unpopular, especially among the "orange" voters. Timoshenko-OurUkraineSociallist Gov't is the likeliest possibility now, in my opinion.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

What about Litvin? Based on what you said he'll probably try to seize whatever opportunity he can to be part of the government.

[ag]

First actual results. These are with only 0.81% of the precinct protocols and therefore entirely worthless, here only for the record:

Timoshenko's Bloc 28.43%
Our Ukraine (Yuschenko) 22.35%
Party of Regions (Yanukovich) 16.37%
Sociallists 7.52%
Litvin's Bloc 2.70%
Communists 2.48%
Kostenko and Plusch Bloc (orange splinter) 2.27%
Pora-PRP (orange splinter) 1.42%
Viche 1.29%
Vitrenko's Bloc 0.92%
"Rennaissance" 0,90%
Rural Party 0.85%
"Ne Tak!" 0.73%
Yuri Karmazin Bloc 0.62%
Ecological Party "Eko" 0.57%
Ukrainian Green Party 0.53%
"Green Planet" 0.47%
Bloc of People Democratic Parties 0.39%
"Third Force" 0.34%
"Liberty" 0.32%
Lazarenko's Bloc 0.26%
Party of People's Trust 0.24%
Party of Putin's Policy (sic!) 0.18%
Retiree's Party 0.16%
People's Power 0.15%
National Economic Development Party 0.15%
Ukrainian People's Assembley 0.14%
Ukrainian Unity Movement "Rukh" (once the dominant anti-communist movement in Soviet Ukraine, now, basically, an abandoned shell) 0.13%
Social Christian Party 0.13%
Working Ukraine 0.12%
"For the Union" (i.e., Soviet) 0.12%
Boris Oliynik and Mikhail Sirota Bloc 0.12%
"Against Corruption and Organized Crime" 0.11%
Conservative Party 0.10%
Ukrainian Patriotic Forces 0.10%
"State-Labor Union" 0.08%
Euhen Marchuk - "Unity" Bloc 0.08%
Non-party-member Bloc "Sun"0.08%
Ukrainian Patriots 0.07%
Social Prtoection Party 0.07%
Social-Ecological Party "Union. Chernobil. Ukraine" 0.06%
"Forward, Ukraine!" 0.06%
"New Force" 0.06%
"European Capital" 0.05%
Liberal Party 0.02%

[ag]

What about Litvin? Based on what you said he'll probably try to seize whatever opportunity he can to be part of the government.

Not likely. First, it's not even clear if he is in the Rada. Even if he is, it is almost certain that he is not needed: either Timoshenko/Yuschenko/Sociallists (most likely) or Yanukovich/either Timoshenko or Yushchenko should have a majority. Why bother w/ Litvin?

[ag]

With 1.53% of precincts reporting, still the same:

Timoshenko's Bloc 28.71%
Our Ukraine (Yuschenko) 21.52%
Party of Regions (Yanukovich) 16.73%
Sociallists 6.96%
Litvin's Bloc 3.01%
Communists 2.78%
Kostenko and Plusch Bloc (orange splinter) 2.67%
Pora-PRP (orange splinter) 1.37%
"Rennaissance" 1.22%
Viche 1.18%
Vitrenko's Bloc 0.94%

Against All 3.17%

[ag]

6:30 AM local time. So far, only 2.99% of precincts reporting, somewhat biased westwise. Results so far

Timoshenko's Bloc 28.11%
Our Ukraine (Yuschenko) 19.73%
Party of Regions (Yanukovich) 17.83%
Sociallists 7.45%
Litvin's Bloc 3.30%
Communists 3.06%
Kostenko and Plusch Bloc (orange splinter) 2.90%
Pora-PRP (orange splinter) 1.30%
"Rennaissance" 1.23%
Viche 1.22%
Vitrenko's Bloc 1.02%
Against All 2.78%

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

It seems to me Timoshenko would not want to deal with Yuschenko after he sacked her and her government. If Timoshenko + Socialists + Litvin could acheive a majority, which is possible if the commies fail the threshold, it'd make sense to go that route. I'm assuming the commies refuse to join any government. Are these commies by the way more like the ones in Russia or Moldova?

[ag]

It seems to me Timoshenko would not want to deal with Yuschenko after he sacked her and her government. If Timoshenko + Socialists + Litvin could acheive a majority, which is possible if the commies fail the threshold, it'd make sense to go that route. I'm assuming the commies refuse to join any government. Are these commies by the way more like the ones in Russia or Moldova?

A PM who deliberately wishes to antagonize an executive President? Even w/ diminished powers Yushchenko has more than enough authority to make life of any PM miserable to the extreme if he chooses so. And no, Timoshenko + Sociallists + Litvin won't have a majority - so far the returns are somewhat biased to the west, once the eastern returns come in fully, Yanukovich+Yushchenko together will have enough seats to block that. Anyway, seems like Commies are in. These Commies have been in a midsize party status for a long time and have learnt to operate in a multi-party legislature. Before last presidential election they, I believe, were non-commital between the rounds, trying to trade somewhere between Yanukovich and Yuschenko (Sociallists, in contrast, did endorse Yushchenko).

[ag]

A few more votes from the East, and the results start shifting into their more likely form.
Update: w/ a few more votes the minor parties get shakier - it could be a 4-party parliament still.

At 6:54 AM w/ 3.63% of the precincts reporting

Timoshenko's Bloc 26.76%
Party of Regions (Yanukovich) 20.63%
Our Ukraine (Yuschenko) 18.62%
Sociallists 7.68%
Communists 2.98%
Litvin's Bloc 2.97%
Kostenko and Plusch Bloc (orange splinter) 2.85%
Vitrenko's Bloc 1.30%
Pora-PRP (orange splinter) 1.28%
Viche 1.17%
"Rennaissance" 1.13%
Against All 2.58%

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Anyway, seems like Commies are in. These Commies have been in a midsize party status for a long time and have learnt to operate in a multi-party legislature. Before last presidential election they, I believe, were non-commital between the rounds, trying to trade somewhere between Yanukovich and Yuschenko (Sociallists, in contrast, did endorse Yushchenko).

So they're in between the Russian and Moldovan commies then? The two represent Yanukovich and Yuschenko to the extremes, the Russian commies being hardliners who would love to restore the Soviet Union, the Moldovan ones supporting moving away from the Soviet past and more integration with the EU. Essentially CINOs really. The Ukranian ones don't seem like hardliners then, but are they as pro-west as Timoshenko and Yushchenko?

Commies and Litvin btw just fell below 3%, although that's with only 3.63% counted. Who are these "Ukrainian National Bloc of Kostenko and Pliushch" folks and are they likely to make it in?

[ag]

Rumors are, the "Orange Coalition" Deal will be signed in a few hours. Of course, other rumours are that Yushchenko is planning to send/has sent for Yanukovich. Anyway, the only three possibilities, as I see them are

Timoshenko/Yuschenko/Sociallists (most likely)
Yanukovich/Yushchenko (somewhat less likely and bad for Yushchenko popularitywise)
Yanukovich/Timoshenko (least likely, and deadly for Timoshenko popularitywise)

[ag]

Anyway, seems like Commies are in. These Commies have been in a midsize party status for a long time and have learnt to operate in a multi-party legislature. Before last presidential election they, I believe, were non-commital between the rounds, trying to trade somewhere between Yanukovich and Yuschenko (Sociallists, in contrast, did endorse Yushchenko).

So they're in between the Russian and Moldovan commies then? The two represent Yanukovich and Yuschenko to the extremes, the Russian commies being hardliners who would love to restore the Soviet Union, the Moldovan ones supporting moving away from the Soviet past and more integration with the EU. Essentially CINOs really. The Ukranian ones don't seem like hardliners then, but are they as pro-west as Timoshenko and Yushchenko?

Commies and Litvin btw just fell below 3%, although that's with only 3.63% counted. Who are these "Ukrainian National Bloc of Kostenko and Pliushch" folks and are they likely to make it in?

Commies are Commies. Nasty and antiwestern is always a fair description (even in Moldova, except there the West is their only hope; they would have been pro-Russian, except that Russia supports their separatists; they aren't CINOs there either). In Ukraine they are a relatively minor leftist party - what else is there to be known?

Kostenko and Plusch, if I understand it right, are another Orange splinter. If they get in - which would be a surprise - they'd probably enter the overall orange coalition of Timoshenko/Yuschenko/Sociallists.