Ukrainian Parliamentary elections

[ag]

7:20 and 4.63%

Timoshenko's Bloc 27.4%
Party of Regions (Yanukovich) 20.03%
Our Ukraine (Yuschenko) 18.32%
Sociallists 7.97%
Communists 3.05%
Litvin's Bloc 3.02%
Kostenko and Plusch Bloc (orange splinter) 2.87%
Vitrenko's Bloc 1.33%
Pora-PRP (orange splinter) 1.31%
Viche 1.22%

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Something strange I noticed now that I have a map of the oblasts is that in the western most oblast, Luhansk, which you would expect to be a Yankuvich stronghold, he is actually in second, and narrowly trailing Yuschenko's bloc. Meanwhile he has over 70% in neighboring Donetsk. To make things even odder, according to a map of the presidential election, he got over 90% here, even in the fair election. Any reason for this?

[ag]

Something strange I noticed now that I have a map of the oblasts is that in the western most oblast, Luhansk, which you would expect to be a Yankuvich stronghold, he is actually in second, and narrowly trailing Yuschenko's bloc. Meanwhile he has over 70% in neighboring Donetsk. To make things even odder, according to a map of the presidential election, he got over 90% here, even in the fair election. Any reason for this?

Yes, Luhansk looks odd, but that's on just 1.58% of the precincts. If you look closer, almost all of these come from just one territorial district, the town of Krasny Luch ("Red Ray" in Russian - not Ukrainian, by the way). Elsewhere, whatever few precincts report it is overwhelming Yanukovich. Two possibilities: a reporting problem (deliberate or not), or a successful Yushchenko alliance w/ some disaffected local leader, who brought in his folk. In any case, once the general results come in, this will be a footnote - Luhansk isn't going anywhere from the Yanukovich camp.

Update: w/ 2.37% from Luhansk reporting, Yanukovich is, appropriately, in the lead.

[ag]

With 8.13% reporting at 8:50 AM

Timoshenko's Bloc 24.55%
Party of Regions (Yanukovich) 23.37%
Our Ukraine (Yuschenko) 17.42%
Sociallists 8.29%
Communists 3.26%
Litvin's Bloc 3.07%
Kostenko and Plusch Bloc (orange splinter) 2.72%
Vitrenko's Bloc 1.80%
Pora-PRP (orange splinter) 1.24%
Viche 1.23%
"Rennaissance" 1.05%
Against All 2.10%

[Kevinstat]

It seems from this page of the english language version of the Central Elections Commission of Ukraine that those voters who vote "against all" parties and blocs are not counted in the percentages listed for each party or bloc on that page or in the denominator in determining whether a party or bloc has met the 3% threshold.  At the time I started composing this reply, the "Bloc of Lytvyn" was listed as having 3.03% of the votes and had it's representative bar graph colored red (which seems to indicate that a bloc or party is meeting the 3% threshold, however it is defined, at that point in the count) even though 3.03% of the 97.79% of counted votes that are not votes "against all" is less than 3% of the total number of counted votes.  The percentages in that table added up total only 95.something % (I x'ed out of my computers calculator), which is less than 97.79%, so it's possible that votes "against all" are used in the denominator of the percentages of the vote listed on this page, and if so that it seems like those votes are also counted in the denominator in determining whether a party has met the 3% threshold, as the percentage listed for Litvin's bloc has now fallen to 2.99% and its representative bar graph is now colored blue (which seems to indicate that a bloc or party is not meeting the 3% threshold at that point in the count).  If the now-2.10% of votes counted that were cast "against all" parties and blocs were counted against the percentages in the table on this thread but not against a party or bloc meating the 3% threshold, than Litvin's bloc would likely now be colored red as 2.99% of the total counted vote would be greater than 3% of the 97.9% of the votes that are not cast "against all."

So basically, I'm pretty sure that whatever percentages are used in the table in this page are the ones which, if calculated the same way when the vote count is complete, will indicate a party has passed the 3% threshold if greater than 3.00% and not passed it if less than 3.00%.

Okay, that was probably a mondo waste of time.  But hey, it was kind of fun.

[ag]

It is a waste of time - we still don't even have 10% of the vote.

Anyway, at 9:00 AM the party order became what it will likely be for the rest of the night (I am taking this from a Ukrainian page that gets the same data as CVK, but sometimes a bit ahead:

Party of Regions 24.58%
Timoshenko 24.08%
Our Ukraine 17.01%
Sociallists 8.19%
Communists 3.28%
Litvin 2.99%
Kostenko and Plusch 2.64%
Vitrenko 1.9%
Viche 1.23%
Pora-PRP 1.22%

This is w/ 8.42% reporting

[ag]

Confirmation from CVK. With 9.81% reporting at 9:35 AM

Party of Regions (Yanukovich) 24.48%
Timoshenko's Bloc 23.88%
Our Ukraine (Yuschenko) 17.22%
Sociallists 8.16%
Communists 3.35%
Litvin's Bloc 3.05%
Kostenko and Plusch Bloc (orange splinter) 2.61%
Vitrenko's Bloc 1.86%
Viche 1.28%
Pora-PRP (orange splinter) 1.23%
"Rennaissance" 1.10%
Against All 2.01%

The other page (www.pravda.com.ua) is once again ahead. At 9:40 AM 10.06% reporting:
Party of Regions 24.7%
Timoshenko 23.8%
Our Ukraine 17.11%
Sociallists 8.1%
Communists 3.34%
Litvin 3.02%
Kostenko and Plusch 2.65%
Vitrenko 1.88%
Viche 1.29%
Pora-PRP 1.24%

Interestingly enough, while almost all regions report at least 5% of the precincts by now (some report well into the double digits), the capital city (Kiev) is reporting less then 2%. Could this be related to the mayoral vote (there are signs and preliminary reports that the long-time Mayor Omelchenko  is coming third!)?

[Kevinstat]

Based on what I've read on the Wikipedia article on this election, representation in the Verkhovna Rada (Ukraine's parliament) among those parties and blocs exceeding the 3% threshold is not proportional to the parties/blocs relative percentages of the vote but their relative percentages of the vote above (excluding, not as a strict "percentage over", it seems based on the article) that 3% threshold.  In addition to (paraphrasing text from the article as it currently stands but to an extent where I feel I should use quotation marks) "distorts the proportionality of the ballot in favor of major parties," this makes a party or bloc like Lytvyn/Litvin's Bloc (that has recently hovered around the 3% mark)'s ability or failure to meet the 3% threshold less important to the overall results, as that bloc will not receive several seats rather than none merely by ending up on the right side of that 3% threshold.  If a possible coalition of parties and/or blocs is on the bubble as to whether or not it will command a majority of seats in the Verkhovna Rada, that is an important fact.  It means there won't likely be German PDS in 2002-style apprehension as to the effective result of the election where a party's ability or failure to meat the threshold makes or breaks (or rather breaks or makes) the possibility of a plausible coalition (in Germany's case it was the existing coalition of the SDP and the Greens, which as we all know didn't survive the next parlimentary election) to govern with a majority, or at all.  In fact, it might be the case that if a party only received 3.01% of whatever vote the threshold is defined as 3% of, it would still fail to receive any seats because it's percentage of the vote excluding 3%, when compared to those percentages of all other parties meeting the threshold, is not enough for that party to be awarded a seat.  .01%, as a percentage of [100% - 3% * 5 (for, say five other party's meeting the 3% threshold) - what now looks like 20% (actually just under, so I'm being generous to this hypothetical party by taking a little smidgin more from the denominator) of voters who voted for parties that failed to meet the threshold] is .0013%, which is only 6.9% of 1/450.  So unless each party that meets the 3% threshold is automatically gets 1 seat or (equivilently actually as long as it isn't 3% exactly) the proportional representation, as it is calculated, has a quota formula that results in an infinite multiplier (and thus priority value) for the first seat, like would be the intuitive multiplier for a state's first seat in the U.S. House of Representatives under our equal proportions formula (I won't desribe that in detail but if you want to know more you can PM me), unless one of those two things (to get things back on focus), a party with 3.01% of the vote likely wouldn't be awarded any seats.  It would probably take something along the lines of 3.07% of the vote or more for a bloc party to gain a seat in the Verkhovna Rada in that case.

Sincerely,

Kevin Lamoreau

[ag]

Judging from the estimates in the ukrainian press, actually, a party that gets 3% of the vote does get a non-negligible number of seats, so wikipedia might be wrong here. I will try to doublecheck the rules apportionment, but it will have to be tomorrow - I have to get some sleep now.

[ag]

The last batch of results for the night, as they seem to be settling. It should be noted that Eastern districts are still somewhat underreporting and Western ones somewhat overeporting, so the direction of change is consistent w/ the exit-polls. The biggest underreport, though, is still Kiev - have no clue why, or what that will mean.

At 9:50 AM local w/ 10.49% reporting:

Party of Regions (Yanukovich) 24.61%
Timoshenko's Bloc 23.75%
Our Ukraine (Yuschenko) 17.27%
Sociallists 8.13%
Communists 3.34%
Litvin's Bloc 3.02%
Kostenko and Plusch Bloc (orange splinter) 2.63%
Vitrenko's Bloc 1.88%
Viche 1.28%
Pora-PRP (orange splinter) 1.24%
"Rennaissance" 1.09%
Against All 1.99%

[minionofmidas]

67% in Luhansk, almost up there with Donetsk.

[ag]

At 5:57 PM local w/ 40.28% reporting:

Party of Regions (Yanukovich) 27.05%
Timoshenko's Bloc 23.58%
Our Ukraine (Yuschenko) 16.18%
Sociallists 7.07%
Communists 3.52%
Litvin's Bloc 2.72%
Kostenko and Plusch Bloc (orange splinter) 2.36%
Vitrenko's Bloc 2.26%
Pora-PRP (orange splinter) 1.44%
Viche 1.43%
"Rennaissance" 1.07%
Against All 1.76%

Looks like a 5-party parliament w/ an orange (Timoshenko/Our Ukraine/Sociallists) majority. And does look a lot like one of the exit-polls.

Also, seems like a new mayor in Kiev. Incumbent Omelchenko seems to be coming third w/around 20%. Second is the "strong man" Klichko (he ran from Pora-PRP), w/ a couple persentage points more. The winner, a banker and an independent MP in the outgoing Rada, Chernovetsky, gets a bit more than 30% on the preliminary results. While no complete official count yet, Yushchenko has already called to congratulate.

[ag]

Half time. 8:41PM local time, 50.50% of the vote:

Party of Regions (Yanukovich) 27.34%
Timoshenko's Bloc 23.52%
Our Ukraine (Yuschenko) 16.27%
Sociallists 6.89%
Communists 3.53%
Litvin's Bloc 2.63%
Kostenko and Plusch Bloc (orange splinter) 2.33%
Vitrenko's Bloc 2.27%
Pora-PRP (orange splinter) 1.47%
Viche 1.46%
"Rennaissance" 1.09%
Against All 1.73%

[ag]

Some preliminary results for mayor and the city council:

Mayor (w/ 15.72% reporting)
Leondi Chernovets'ki (independent, currently a bank-owner and an MP, more orange than not, though) 31.6%
Vitali Klichko (boxer, leader of Pora-PRP, orange) 23.03%
Oleksandr Omel'chenko (incumbent) 22.16%
Yuri Karmazin 5.32%
Adam Martinyuk 2.97%

City council (the same 3% threshold applies locally as it does nationally, 13.87% reporting):
Yulia Timoshenko's Bloc 24.62%
Leonid Chernivets'ki's Bloc (the likely new mayor's supporters) 13.29%
Our Ukraine (Yushchenkol's supporters) 8.59%
Pora-PRP (Klichko's supporters) 8.41%
Party of Regions (Yanukovich's supporters) 5.38%
Kiev's Civic Active (??) 4.15%
Litvin's Bloc 3.66%
Sociallists 3.59%

Everybody else is less then 3% so far

[Kevinstat]

I just discovered a blog with a table that seems to back up what I read on Wikipedia on the allocation of seats in the Ukrainian parliament (for this election - earlier elections were held under a half-single member district IFPP, half-PR system where the threshold was 4% and the allocation formula may have been different).  If you scroll down a wee bit, you'll see a table showing the results of a couple exit polls, which for some parties/blocs are way off from where the results are at this point in the count.  But anyway, what I hope you all can focus on is not the relative standing of the parties, but the number of seats each party or bloc is projected to awarded in relation to it's percentage of the vote received.  Only the three highest-polling parties or blocs (Yanukovich's, Tymoshenko's, and Yushchenko's) are shown as being projected to win a greater percentage of seats than their respective projected percentages of the vote, with the four or three other parties or blocs projected to pass the 3% threshold in the first or second exit poll cited (respectively) shown as being projected to win a smaller percentage of seats than their respective percentages of the vote.  In neither table does the total number of seats add up to 450 (in spite of what the tables say), but in each table the number of seats projected to be awarded to each party as a percentage of the total number of seats (which is less than 450 in each table) seems to be right in line with that parties percenage of the vote when those parties receiving less than 3% discounted AN 3% subtracted from every other party (including both in the numerator and the denominator for the party in question).

It's possible that the person who runs this blog is wrong, but seeing this allocation formula used or assumed in two sites makes me inclined to believe it.  Athough it could be this blogger used Wikipedia as a source or that the person who edited the Wikipedia article to mention this alleged allocation formula could have used this blog as a source, or could even be that blogger.  So we'll just have to wait and see.

[ag]

No, the guy in Wikipedia is wrong. A fairly standard largest remainder methode in use. Nothing whatsoever as exotic as implied above.

Article 96 of the Electoral Law, selected sections in an abridged traslation (I am translating from the original Ukrainian, which I know imperfectly, but usually good enough to read newspapers, so I will do my best):

3. The right to participate in the division of parliamentary seats belongs to the candidates on the lists of parties obtaining the votes of 3% or more of the voters voting in the nationwide electoral district.

5. Parliamentary seats are divided between the electoral lists of parties (blocs) proportionately to the number of votes received between the parties (blocs) mentioned in part three of this article, in the order prescribed by parts 6-9 of this article.

6. The Central Electoral Commission on the basis of the protocols .... determines the sum total of the votes given for the parties (blocs) that obtained at least 3% of the vote.

7. The number of votes necessary for one parliamentary seat (henceforth, electoral quota) is produced by dividing the total number of votes computed according to part 6 of this article, by the number of seats in the Verkhovna Rada provided by the constitution (henceforth, "the number of seats").

8. The number of votes given for the party (bloc) list is divided by the electoral quota. The whole part of this number determines the number of seats the party has. The fractional remainders are treated according to part 9 of this article.

9. Parties (blocs), whose electoral lists have the largest fractional remainder comparedwith other parties after the division according to part 8 of this article, get an extra seat, beginning with the party with the largest remainder. If the remainders for two or more parties are identical, the extra seat is received by the party receiving the larger number of votes. The allocation of seats is concluded after the number of seats is exausted. 

[Kevinstat]

Well, that was another major waste of time.  Although it is fun to imagine what it would be like if such a system as the guy in Wikipedia described was in place.

Thanks for the information, ag.  It still looks like Tymoshenko's and Yushchonco's blocs together might win enough seats to form a majority without the Socialists, although it's less clear and more dependent on no sixth party passing the 3% threshold than it would be under the false "Wikipedia method".  If the eastern, pro-Yanukovich areas are still undercounted, it's possible that the combined Party of Regions + Socialist + Communist vote will overtake the combined vote of the two main "Orange" parties.  The Socialists in Ukraine seem to be allinged with the "Orange" parties anyway, but their political philosophy might be further from that of the two "Orange" parties than those two parties are from each other.  I'm sure you would have a better idea about that than I, ag.

[ag]

Sociallists are indispensable for the orange camp. Timoshenko and Yushchenko have hard time getting along, for Yushchenko it is important to have another coalition partner to dilute Timoshenko's strength.

As for the ideology, it's all murky here. On matters of economic policy Timoshenko is generally left-wing, probably to the left of Yanukovich, who has no real ideology of his own. In fact, on these issues alone Yanukovich and Yushchenko would be more natural partners, whereas Sociallists and Timoshenko fit well together. A bigger fault line is linguistic, specifically the relative roles of Russian and Ukrainian. Here the Sociallists manage to straddle the gap, with their strength coming from both sides of the linguistic divide. A still bigger implicit fault line is in terms of pro-Europe vs. pro-Russian orientation. Here Sociallists might be problematic for the orange parties, though less problematic than Communists would be.

One thing should be made very clear: it's not really the ideologies of the parties that matter here, it is the fact that there is an elected multi-polar legislature, where no side has a real majority, but there is a strong competition that should "keep the bastards of all colors in check". That's where what's happenning in Ukraine is revolutionary, not in the actual composition of that parliament.

By the way: w/ greater count from the East, Vitrenko's bloc started approaching the 3% cutoff. If she gets in, that would make for some entertaining stage performances on the floor. Since even w/ her votes Yanukovich won't be able to form a government, it shouldn't really affect things, though.

[ag]

Most recent results: 00:58AM local time, 58.84% reporting
I will now include the seat projections:

Party of Regions (Yanukovich) 28.33% 165 seats
Timoshenko's Bloc 23.00% 134 seats
Our Ukraine (Yuschenko) 15.96% 93 seats
Sociallists 6.61% 38 seats
Communists 3.50% 20 seats
Litvin's Bloc 2.61%
Vitrenko's Bloc 2.44%
Kostenko and Plusch Bloc (orange splinter) 2.22%
Viche 1.52%
Pora-PRP (orange splinter) 1.47%
"Rennaissance" 1.07%
Against All 1.76%

So far the Timoshenko+Yushchenko have a bare majority (227 out of 450), but they will, probably, have even less, judging by what's left to count. Sociallists will be indispensible

[ag]

Very slow counting progress. The eastern districts have largely caught up (except for Luhansk), the biggest laggard is still Kiev. Also, in some of the eastern districts most missing precincts are in bigger cities, which while pro-Yanukovich, are less so than the surrounding countryside. I expect the final results to be similar to the current ones, but I might be wrong. On the other hand, missing bigger cities (this is, actually, mostly true nationwide) might indicate that most voters are concentrated in the missing precincts (why else are they so slow), which implies there is still a lot of counting to happen. Actually, noting that it is only a bit more than 10 mln. votes that have been counted, that seems likely

At 6:45 AM local time with 62.42% of the vote counted it stands as follows:


Party of Regions (Yanukovich) 29.31% 170 seats
Timoshenko's Bloc 22.62%% 132 seats
Our Ukraine (Yuschenko) 15.69% 91 seats
Sociallists 6.35% 37 seats
Communists 3.50% 20 seats
Litvin's Bloc 2.55%
Vitrenko's Bloc 2.52%
Kostenko and Plusch Bloc (orange splinter) 2.14%
Viche 1.54%
Pora-PRP (orange splinter) 1.48%
"Rennaissance" 1.06%
Against All 1.74%

[Kevinstat]

At 6:01 PM local time with 83.40% of the vote counted it stands as follows:


Party of Regions (Yanukovich) 30.59% 177 seats [corrected from 171 - the seat allocation hasn't changed since I made this post]
Timoshenko's Bloc 22.40%% 130 seats
Our Ukraine (Yuschenko) 15.01% 87 seats
Sociallists 6.04% 35 seats
Communists 3.61% 21 seats
Vitrenko's Bloc 2.62%
Litvin's Bloc 2.49%
Kostenko and Plusch Bloc (orange splinter) 2.07%
Viche 1.59%
Pora-PRP (orange splinter) 1.48%
"Rennaissance" 1.03%

Against All 1.74%

[ag]

I've underestimated the eastern potential

At 8:21PM w/ 87.51% reporting

Party of Regions (Yanukovich) 30.70% 178 seats
Timoshenko's Bloc 22.53%% 130 seats
Our Ukraine (Yuschenko) 14.86% 86 seats
Sociallists 5.98% 35 seats
Communists 3.62% 21 seats
Vitrenko's Bloc 2.66%
Litvin's Bloc 2.49%
Kostenko and Plusch Bloc (orange splinter) 2.04%
Viche 1.61%
Pora-PRP (orange splinter) 1.49%
"Rennaissance" 1.01%

Against All 1.74%

Unless by some miracle Vitrenko gets in, the rough allocation should be this, though I wouldn't be surprized if Yanukovich and Timoshenko both get a seat or two courtesy of Yushchenko (most of the regions where Yushchenko's party is doing strong have already reported almost everything, while the Yanukovich districts and Timoshenko's Kiev are still slow),. Very close to some of the exit-polls - cudos to the exit-pollers!

[Kevinstat]

It will be interesting when this is all said and done to see how many seats you would have to add or take away from 450 to find an example of the Alabama Paradox, where a party such as the Socialists or Communists would lose a seat if there were one additional seat in parliament and gain one if there were one fewer seat.  It is called the Alabama Paradox because such an example regarding the state of Alabama was discovered during a decennial Congressional apportionment in the late-1800's (the one following the 1880 census, I believe) when this same method was used for Congressional apportionment, even though an example of this paradox regarding another state (Delaware, I think) had been discovered (although perhaps not as well publicised) a decade or two earlier.  Whatever the results of the election are, for an unlimited range of number of seats you could surely find examples where each party not in the top two experience this paradox (as an additional seat moves the larger parties decimal quota of seats up more than the smaller parties, and if two larger parties passed a smaller party when a seat was added that party would lose a seat), but what is less certain is if there will be a number of seats greater than 450 (not just one greater) such that the Communists, Socialists, and/or (extremely unlikely) Yushchenko's Bloc would be allotted one fewer seat than they will have in the 450-member parliament or if there will be a number of seats less than 450 such that one or more of those parties would be allotted one more seat than they will be allotted in the 450-member parliament.  It's possible that the nearest example of the Alabama Paradox for each of those parties is with far enough away from 450 seats that party would have already gained (or lost) a seat or more before they would lose (or gain) a seat back as a result of adding (or subtrating) a seat from a hypothetically adjustable total size of the Ukrainian parliament.

I hope someone other than me finds at least some of that interesting.

[Kevinstat]

At 9:57 PM local time with only 1.94% more (89.45% total) of protocols reporting, Yanukovich's party increased it's percentage of the vote by over a tenth and a half (of a tenth) and took a seat away from the Socialists.

Party of Regions (Yanukovich) 30.87% 178 seats
Timoshenko's Bloc 22.50% 130 seats
Our Ukraine (Yuschenko) 14.78% 87 seats
Socialists 5.93% 34 seats
Communists 3.62% 21 seats
Vitrenko's Bloc 2.69% (still moving up as the count proceeds, but too little, too late it seems)
Litvin's Bloc 2.47%
Kostenko and Plusch Bloc (orange splinter) 2.02%
Viche 1.62%
Pora-PRP (orange splinter) 1.50%
"Rennaissance" 1.00% (they may soon no longer be worthy of a mention in the Wikipedia table, whose creator set a 1% standard for the inclusion of parties and blocs)

Against All 1.74%

[edited only to correct errors]

[ag]

Slow, still slow, but slowly getting there.
At 11:51PM w/ 91.30% reporting

Party of Regions (Yanukovich) 31.04% 180 seats
Timoshenko's Bloc 22.53%% 130 seats
Our Ukraine (Yuschenko) 14.64% 85 seats
Sociallists 5.88% 34 seats
Communists 3.63% 21 seats
Vitrenko's Bloc 2.71%
Litvin's Bloc 2.47%
Kostenko and Plusch Bloc (orange splinter) 2.00%
Viche 1.64%
Pora-PRP (orange splinter) 1.49%
"Rennaissance" 1.00%
Opposition bloc "Ne Tak!" 0.97% (these now got close to 1%, so I am including them)

Against All 1.75%

Vitrenko and Viche are shouting fraud, though nobody on the outside seems to agree. Vitrenko claims to have gotten 6-7% of the vote. Had he claimed 3.5 she'd been more credible, though. Still, even w/ her in, there should still be an orange majority (if she were to get in, she'd get some 20 seats, but nearly half of that from Yanukovich and Communists, of course). 6-7% is what she'd need to affect that in any way.