What countries will develop nuclear weapons?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Currently, there are 5 countries "allowed" to have nuclear weapons (US, UK, France, China and Russia), 7 that officialy do (the above + India and Pakistan) and 1 that most likely does but this has not been confirmed (Israel). North Korea claims to have them but so far this has not been totally confirmed. Iran is probably working on them. Canada, Germany, Japan, Italy, Lithuania, The Netherlands and Saudi Arabia all have the capabilities to easily produce nuclear weapons, although officially non intend to. However a former German Defense Minister says that the country may have to consider doing so to combat terrorist threats, and Japan has said that they will if there is any complete confirmation of North Korea having any in range, especially if North Korea test launches one over the country. Saudi Arabia has mentioned with toying with the idea over worsening relations with the US. None of the others appear to have any intentions.

[freek]

The Dutch will for sure never develop nuclear weapons. New nuclear power plants will already be a huge problem. There is no need for nukes. There are some (American) nukes in the country though, at the military base of Woensdrecht.

However, the Dutch-German-British uranium enrichment plant Urenco in Almelo (just five kilometres away from here) is capable of producing the uranium needed for such a bomb. It is the place where Pakistani engineer Abdul Qadeer Khan managed to steal the secret blueprints for uranium centrifuges. The Dutch government knew about this, but the CIA asked the Netherlands not to arrest him. Later, Khan went on to sell the blueprints to Libya, North Korea, and Iran.

And still the people in the rest of the Netherlands regard Almelo as one of the most boring towns in the country.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Germany will never develop nuclear weapons, unless there's a dramatic shift of general opinion in society. Any incumbent defense minister or other politician suggesting something like this would seriously hurt his career... and perhaps even be forced to resign (depending on party and the kind of office held).

[Gabu]

I sincerely doubt Canada ever will.  That's just not our style.

[Frodo]

North Korea, Iran, and Japan are the most likely. 

[freek]

Maybe Brazil too?

[David S]

As technology advances the means to build such weapons becomes easier. Eventually most nations will have at least a few a-bombs.

[phk]

North Korea/Iran/Japan

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

You left out South Korea and the ABC Powers (Argentina, Brazil, and Chile).  It's not likely at this point that any of the ABC powers will build nukes, but of any of them do, they all will.  Chavez would like nukes, but I doubt if he's willing to spend the money on crash development of them or that his successor will want them.

[Bacon King]

Lithuania? That country really sticks out on the list.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I took the list from countries that either have nuclear programs or the capabilities to develop them in only about a year or two. Argentina and Brazil both had nuclear programs but abandoned them in the 80s and I don't see any reason why they'd care about getting them now. South Korea also briefly had a program but abandoned it and really doesn't need them, they could just get the US or (possibly) Japan to station nukes in their territory.

Lithuania? That country really sticks out on the list.

From Wikipedia:

"Nuclear power reactors produce 77% of Lithuania's electricity and it has 2 of the world's most powerful reactors in its territory. However, one of these reactors was recently shut down. Lithuania has the means of legally acquiring fissile materials for power plants. Lithuania also has former launch sites for Soviet Union missiles. However, there is no political will at present to develop nuclear weapons in Lithuania."

[KillerPollo]

North Korea, Iran, and Japan are the most likely. 

The first two, i do believe, But Japan? i do not think they would even consider it. I know about the threat from N.Korea, but if Japan were to get nuclear weapons, it would also alienate other East Asian nations in the vicinity, and would also hurt some relations those nations have with the United States.