Is Arkansas a swing state?

[Smash255]

Arkansas is not a swing state, but I think it will go safely Democrat when the runner is a moderate southerner. Same with Tennessee, Louisiana, Georgia & Missouri. The only states in the south that will never go Democrat are South Carolina, Mississippi, Alabama & Texas.

SC is supposedly pretty close, though no recent polls prove that assumption.  Mississippi has a large African-American population, so maybe if something could get more of the A/A population to vote, I think MS could one day go Dem.

I think it will be hard for Miss to go Democrat  The Republicans have a stronghold on the racist vote.  No disrespect to anyone from Mississippi, but it has traditonally been one of the most racist states in the country.  In 2000 Bush had something like 90% of the white vote.   One way Missippi could go Dem is if someone like Rice runs on a VP ticket for te Republicans.  The African American vote will still be heavily Democrat despite having Rice on the  Republican ticket and the racists would stay home

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

The attitude exemplified by "Smash", my friends, is WHY the south does not vote Democrat.

The liberals seem to be under the impression that all of us down here are a bunch of racists.  Because the north, of course, has no history of racism.  I mean, its not like they brought the slaves over here on their merchant ships or anything......

If Bush getting 90% of the white vote is built on "racism", then why would Gore getting 90% of the black vote not be equally racist?  OHHH.. thats right... in liberal-land, blacks cannot be racist!

Arkansas is not a swing state, but I think it will go safely Democrat when the runner is a moderate southerner. Same with Tennessee, Louisiana, Georgia & Missouri. The only states in the south that will never go Democrat are South Carolina, Mississippi, Alabama & Texas.

SC is supposedly pretty close, though no recent polls prove that assumption.  Mississippi has a large African-American population, so maybe if something could get more of the A/A population to vote, I think MS could one day go Dem.

I think it will be hard for Miss to go Democrat  The Republicans have a stronghold on the racist vote.  No disrespect to anyone from Mississippi, but it has traditonally been one of the most racist states in the country.  In 2000 Bush had something like 90% of the white vote.   One way Missippi could go Dem is if someone like Rice runs on a VP ticket for te Republicans.  The African American vote will still be heavily Democrat despite having Rice on the  Republican ticket and the racists would stay home

[12th Doctor]

The attitude exemplified by "Smash", my friends, is WHY the south does not vote Democrat.

The liberals seem to be under the impression that all of us down here are a bunch of racists.  Because the north, of course, has no history of racism.  I mean, its not like they brought the slaves over here on their merchant ships or anything......

If Bush getting 90% of the white vote is built on "racism", then why would Gore getting 90% of the black vote not be equally racist?  OHHH.. thats right... in liberal-land, blacks cannot be racist!

Arkansas is not a swing state, but I think it will go safely Democrat when the runner is a moderate southerner. Same with Tennessee, Louisiana, Georgia & Missouri. The only states in the south that will never go Democrat are South Carolina, Mississippi, Alabama & Texas.

SC is supposedly pretty close, though no recent polls prove that assumption.  Mississippi has a large African-American population, so maybe if something could get more of the A/A population to vote, I think MS could one day go Dem.

I think it will be hard for Miss to go Democrat  The Republicans have a stronghold on the racist vote.  No disrespect to anyone from Mississippi, but it has traditonally been one of the most racist states in the country.  In 2000 Bush had something like 90% of the white vote.   One way Missippi could go Dem is if someone like Rice runs on a VP ticket for te Republicans.  The African American vote will still be heavily Democrat despite having Rice on the  Republican ticket and the racists would stay home

Here Here Don

[??????????]

The attitude exemplified by "Smash", my friends, is WHY the south does not vote Democrat.

The liberals seem to be under the impression that all of us down here are a bunch of racists.  Because the north, of course, has no history of racism.  I mean, its not like they brought the slaves over here on their merchant ships or anything......

If Bush getting 90% of the white vote is built on "racism", then why would Gore getting 90% of the black vote not be equally racist?  OHHH.. thats right... in liberal-land, blacks cannot be racist!

Arkansas is not a swing state, but I think it will go safely Democrat when the runner is a moderate southerner. Same with Tennessee, Louisiana, Georgia & Missouri. The only states in the south that will never go Democrat are South Carolina, Mississippi, Alabama & Texas.

SC is supposedly pretty close, though no recent polls prove that assumption.  Mississippi has a large African-American population, so maybe if something could get more of the A/A population to vote, I think MS could one day go Dem.

I think it will be hard for Miss to go Democrat  The Republicans have a stronghold on the racist vote.  No disrespect to anyone from Mississippi, but it has traditonally been one of the most racist states in the country.  In 2000 Bush had something like 90% of the white vote.   One way Missippi could go Dem is if someone like Rice runs on a VP ticket for te Republicans.  The African American vote will still be heavily Democrat despite having Rice on the  Republican ticket and the racists would stay home

Word.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The attitude exemplified by "Smash", my friends, is WHY the south does not vote Democrat.

The liberals seem to be under the impression that all of us down here are a bunch of racists.  Because the north, of course, has no history of racism.  I mean, its not like they brought the slaves over here on their merchant ships or anything......

If Bush getting 90% of the white vote is built on "racism", then why would Gore getting 90% of the black vote not be equally racist?  OHHH.. thats right... in liberal-land, blacks cannot be racist!

Arkansas is not a swing state, but I think it will go safely Democrat when the runner is a moderate southerner. Same with Tennessee, Louisiana, Georgia & Missouri. The only states in the south that will never go Democrat are South Carolina, Mississippi, Alabama & Texas.

SC is supposedly pretty close, though no recent polls prove that assumption.  Mississippi has a large African-American population, so maybe if something could get more of the A/A population to vote, I think MS could one day go Dem.

I think it will be hard for Miss to go Democrat  The Republicans have a stronghold on the racist vote.  No disrespect to anyone from Mississippi, but it has traditonally been one of the most racist states in the country.  In 2000 Bush had something like 90% of the white vote.   One way Missippi could go Dem is if someone like Rice runs on a VP ticket for te Republicans.  The African American vote will still be heavily Democrat despite having Rice on the  Republican ticket and the racists would stay home

Clinton came within 5% of taking MS in 1996. A Dem win at some point is certainly possible.
Bush did *not* win 90% of the White vote in MS.

[ilikeverin]

The attitude exemplified by "Smash", my friends, is WHY the south does not vote Democrat.

The liberals seem to be under the impression that all of us down here are a bunch of racists.  Because the north, of course, has no history of racism.  I mean, its not like they brought the slaves over here on their merchant ships or anything......

If Bush getting 90% of the white vote is built on "racism", then why would Gore getting 90% of the black vote not be equally racist?  OHHH.. thats right... in liberal-land, blacks cannot be racist!

Arkansas is not a swing state, but I think it will go safely Democrat when the runner is a moderate southerner. Same with Tennessee, Louisiana, Georgia & Missouri. The only states in the south that will never go Democrat are South Carolina, Mississippi, Alabama & Texas.

SC is supposedly pretty close, though no recent polls prove that assumption.  Mississippi has a large African-American population, so maybe if something could get more of the A/A population to vote, I think MS could one day go Dem.

I think it will be hard for Miss to go Democrat  The Republicans have a stronghold on the racist vote.  No disrespect to anyone from Mississippi, but it has traditonally been one of the most racist states in the country.  In 2000 Bush had something like 90% of the white vote.   One way Missippi could go Dem is if someone like Rice runs on a VP ticket for te Republicans.  The African American vote will still be heavily Democrat despite having Rice on the  Republican ticket and the racists would stay home

Huzzah!  Huzzah!

(Err... did I just say that?  It must be my Hoosierness.  Let me shrink off into a corner now )

Anyway, there's about a 99.99999999999999999% chance that the Republicans will win Mississippi's EVs this year... the only chance is if the Republicans nominate Arnold Schwarzenegger

[classical liberal]

Clinton came clost in MS becaues he's a bubba from a neighboring state.

[Smash255]

Just wanted to make a correction.  Bush did not get 90% of the Mississippi white vote, it was 81%, I meant to say almost 90% because I was thinking of the white male vote which was 87% according to exit polls

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Harry is a rare species indeed then.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Just wanted to make a correction.  Bush did not get 90% of the Mississippi white vote, it was 81%, I meant to say almost 90% because I was thinking of the white male vote which was 87% according to exit polls

That doesn't add up unless there was a very, very, very, very high black turnout.

MS results in 2000:

Gore: 40.7%
Bush: 57.6%

Bush didn't crack 80% in a single county
---
I hate exit polls

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Mississippi is about 1/3 black, so about 30% of Gore's 40 was the black vote. That means Gore's other 10% was from the white vote, which means out of the white vote total he got around .1/.6666666.... which is 15%. So you have 85%, take away the third party vote and you have around 81%

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Mississippi is about 1/3 black, so about 30% of Gore's 40 was the black vote. That means Gore's other 10% was from the white vote, which means out of the white vote total he got around .1/.6666666.... which is 15%. So you have 85%, take away the third party vote and you have around 81%

The number of blacks voting is always less than their population.
Admittedly, MS is *the* worst state in the South for racial voting... so 80% is *just about* possible... but I doubt it.

[Smash255]

Mississippi is about 1/3 black, so about 30% of Gore's 40 was the black vote. That means Gore's other 10% was from the white vote, which means out of the white vote total he got around .1/.6666666.... which is 15%. So you have 85%, take away the third party vote and you have around 81%

The number of blacks voting is always less than their population.
Admittedly, MS is *the* worst state in the South for racial voting... so 80% is *just about* possible... but I doubt it.

The black population in MS is about 36% so accounting for the fact that blacks tend to vote less than whites assuming 30% of the vote was black the projections make sense and tend to back the exit polls

[khirkhib]

Well the user predictions are only 10 votes away from becoming making Arkasas a toss-up.

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/pred04.php?action=statepred&fips=5

User Predictions
Difference between Lean and Toss up for Lean Bush states
AK 11
TN 36
AZ 51
LA 68
CO 102
VA 121

Difference between Lean and Toss up for Lean Kerry states
MN 8
MI 115
ME 145
WA 150

Fairly accurate, a little bit of democratic optamism.  Dave how does the poll average the votes to decide if it is strong, lean or toss-up.  Is it it straight up which ever catagory has the most votes or do their have to be more toss ups than lean and strong combined to make it a toss up.

[classical liberal]

He takes the median of the predictions.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Mississippi is about 1/3 black, so about 30% of Gore's 40 was the black vote. That means Gore's other 10% was from the white vote, which means out of the white vote total he got around .1/.6666666.... which is 15%. So you have 85%, take away the third party vote and you have around 81%

The number of blacks voting is always less than their population.
Admittedly, MS is *the* worst state in the South for racial voting... so 80% is *just about* possible... but I doubt it.

The black population in MS is about 36% so accounting for the fact that blacks tend to vote less than whites assuming 30% of the vote was black the projections make sense and tend to back the exit polls

It makes sense because you *want it* to make sense... I'd guess that Bush won about 75% of the white vote in Mississippi (it's impossible to tell accurately though).
Mississippi is the worst state in the U.S for racial voting (to risk understatement) and the whites-in-MM-areas-leaning-Democrat doesn't apply to the extent that it does in, say, Alabama...
80% is *just about* possible...