What states did you call wrongly Vorlon?
Iowa & Wisconsin. (%$#@ing cheeseheads)
Looking at 2000 versus 2004 I think one factor that nobody (except me of course
) has factored in is how good a campaign manager Donna Brazille was from a pure logistical get out the vote point of view.
I am reminded of this because Brazille "stole" Wisconsin, Oregon, Iowa, New Mexico, maybe even Minnesota for Gore,
Gore was down 2 or 3% in all of those states and she just plain kicked some GOP butt in voter turnout.
Brazille's "Get out the Vote" was really truly outstanding, she just blew away all the turnout projection models in a lot of the big states: Michigan, Pennsylvania, Florida, even Ohio to a lesser degree.
Based on what I have seen so far, the Kerry folks are just not even in the same league as Brazille.
Your ground game is worth a difference of maybe 4% or so ultimately, and in 2000 the "Team Brazille" clearly beat "Team Rove" at the ground game, it wasn't even close. - They got the whole 4%
The GOP has done a very good job on the ground so far in 2004, and Kerry better close that gap, and soon...
This to me is the unreported story so far in 2004.