Question about Hubert Humphrey
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 06:04:10 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs?
  Past Election What-ifs (US) (Moderator: Dereich)
  Question about Hubert Humphrey
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Question about Hubert Humphrey  (Read 2197 times)
Lincoln Republican
Winfield
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,348


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: March 28, 2006, 09:09:23 PM »

If John F Kennedy had picked northern liberal Democratic Senator Hubert H Humphrey of Minnesota as his Vice Presidential running mate in 1960, instead of the more moderate Senator Lyndon B Johnson of Texas, would Kennedy still have won the election?

Please discuss.

Thank you.
Logged
J. J.
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,892
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: March 28, 2006, 09:45:38 PM »

I would say that LBJ brought two states with him, TX and NM (29 electoral votes).  If I understand JFK also had 5 EV's from AL; 2-3 of those would have been lost.  Possibly SC might have gone to RMN, but at best, the election would have been thrown into the House.

You might have seen Kennedy/Lodge, even though they were from the same state.

LBJ was the clincher.
Logged
WalterMitty
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,572


Political Matrix
E: 1.68, S: -2.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: March 29, 2006, 05:15:33 AM »

no way jfk could have won with hmphrey.

humphrey was well known for his support of civil rights.  with humphrey on the democrat ticket in 60, the south would have gone to nxon or unpledged electors.
Logged
minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,207
India


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: March 29, 2006, 07:15:06 AM »

Southern rebellion would have actually been serious rather than purely pro-forma as IRL. They wouldn't have gone for Nixon - the Rep platform had a strong civil rights plank too, that was the prize Nixon had to pay for unanimous nomination. There'd have been a Thurmond-like candidacy.
There's actually no special reason to think Nixon might have picked up any states outside of Texas (perhaps New Mexico as well, not sure about that) - although with the election so close in so many states, it's totally possible.
Then again, Kennedy might actually have done a little better in the midwest, and picked up Wisconsin and perhaps other states as well - although again there's no reason to specifically believe it would have happened.
Bottom line - Election's quite likely to end up in the House, where Kennedy wins, but at the prize of deferring progress on Civil Rights legislation for another decade.
Logged
WalterMitty
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,572


Political Matrix
E: 1.68, S: -2.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: March 29, 2006, 12:40:53 PM »



jfk/hhh:41%, 230 EVs
nixon/agnew: 39%,  189 EVs
va senator willis robertson/ark gov orville faubus: 20%, 118 EVs
Logged
Lincoln Republican
Winfield
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,348


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: March 29, 2006, 01:18:28 PM »

Nixon/Lodge in 1960

That's a lot of electoral votes and popular votes you show going to Robertson and Faubus third party.  More than Teddy Roosevelt got in 1912, 88 EV, 17% PV, and more than George Wallace got in 1968, 46 EV, 9% PV.  That would easily make this 1960 third party the most successful third party in U.S. history.  Nonetheless a very interesting map.  It could have happened I suppose.

In your map, JFK would still become President, as I believe the Democrats controlled the House in 1960.  Correct me is I'm wrong.
Logged
WalterMitty
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,572


Political Matrix
E: 1.68, S: -2.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: March 29, 2006, 07:16:40 PM »

Nixon/Lodge in 1960

That's a lot of electoral votes and popular votes you show going to Robertson and Faubus third party.  More than Teddy Roosevelt got in 1912, 88 EV, 17% PV, and more than George Wallace got in 1968, 46 EV, 9% PV.  That would easily make this 1960 third party the most successful third party in U.S. history.  Nonetheless a very interesting map.  It could have happened I suppose.

In your map, JFK would still become President, as I believe the Democrats controlled the House in 1960.  Correct me is I'm wrong.

i think faubus was at his peak in 1960.  he had just gone through the episode with little rock central high school and (sadly) that made him a hero among many southerners.

also, i think most southern democrats still basically despised humphrey in 1960.  wasnt it after his speech at the 1948 democrat convention that the southerners walked out?

yes, democrats controlled the house in 1960.  BUT a lot of their numbers came from the south.  so, who knows how those representatives would have voted
Logged
Democratic Hawk
LucysBeau
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,703
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -2.58, S: 2.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: March 29, 2006, 09:08:15 PM »

I don't think Kennedy could have won with Hubert Humphrey. Johnson swung it for him

Of the Deep South states, only Georgia would have stayed Democrat. Remember that state eluded Thurmond in 1948 and by a long stretch; and, in both 1952 and 1956, Georgia gave Stevenson his greatest margin of victory over Eisenhower of any state that he carried

Only the Civil Rights Act of 1964 saw Georgia break from its Democratic past. As a whole, it detested the party of Lincoln until then. They were still voting against Sherman

Of course, there were times pre-1964 when the Georgia vote was relatively close between the two parties but more so out of disdain for the Democratic candidate rather than any real enthusiasm for the Republican

Dave
Logged
minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,207
India


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: April 03, 2006, 03:10:41 PM »

Nixon/Lodge in 1960

That's a lot of electoral votes and popular votes you show going to Robertson and Faubus third party.  More than Teddy Roosevelt got in 1912, 88 EV, 17% PV, and more than George Wallace got in 1968, 46 EV, 9% PV.  That would easily make this 1960 third party the most successful third party in U.S. history.  Nonetheless a very interesting map.  It could have happened I suppose.

In your map, JFK would still become President, as I believe the Democrats controlled the House in 1960.  Correct me is I'm wrong.

i think faubus was at his peak in 1960.  he had just gone through the episode with little rock central high school and (sadly) that made him a hero among many southerners.

also, i think most southern democrats still basically despised humphrey in 1960.  wasnt it after his speech at the 1948 democrat convention that the southerners walked out?

yes, democrats controlled the house in 1960.  BUT a lot of their numbers came from the south.  so, who knows how those representatives would have voted
Faubus actually did run as a States Rights candidate in 1960 but never got any traction.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.029 seconds with 12 queries.