The General Election poll! (user search)
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Author Topic: The General Election poll!  (Read 48063 times)
7,052,770
Harry
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Posts: 35,431
Ukraine


« on: January 14, 2004, 06:19:07 PM »

Hmmm, both presidential candidates come from traditional battle ground states, and both vice presidential candidates come from states that almost always go to the other party.
I'd suppose that MI is solid Dem and PA is solid GOP.
Generally solid MS and IL would be tossups.
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7,052,770
Harry
Atlas Superstar
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Posts: 35,431
Ukraine


« Reply #1 on: January 15, 2004, 09:45:43 PM »

My guess is that I'd do better in the Midwest and worse in the South than the prediction map indicates. Unless I win a landslide I doubt that even having a running mate from Mississippi can be enough to carry Mississippi since it is one of the most conservative states in the South. Tennessee would also be tough for me to win. However, I think I will win Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Iowa. Sure, Demrepdan is from the Midwest, but so am I, and I'm on the top of the ticket, so I should still do better than would otherwise be expected in the Midwest. Especially in Wisconsin since I was born in Wisconsin and even now only live about 60 miles from the state line.
Mississippi is a big tossup; however, remember it does have a 40% African-American population and I would be very, very strongly promoting a GOTV for them.  That being said, MS is a tossup.
Louisiana, Arkansas,  and Tennessee, however, three more states where I will strongly campaign, should be classified as "lean Democrat."  They all close Clinton both times, and Carter in 1976.  With a Southern moderate on the ticket against two Northerners, I believe I stand a chance of bringing all three of them into the Dem column.
Missouri and Florida both went with Carter and Clinton and I should have somewhat of a pull there, but I alone am unlikely to totally pull those states into the Dem column.  Help from local senators/representatives, etc., though make all of them in play.
Kentucky and Georgia each chose Clinton and Carter, and could *possibly* be in play, but it is unlikely.
Other Southern states are likely too conservative for me to have a significant pull (AL, TX, NC, SC, VA)
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7,052,770
Harry
Atlas Superstar
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Posts: 35,431
Ukraine


« Reply #2 on: January 16, 2004, 08:09:08 AM »

OK, I will make an other attempt at posting my map when I get home from school.

It's similar to most of the other maps here, but I think the Dems will make a surprisingly strong showing in the south and mid-west, winning most of the tossups there, but then losing the election due to bad performance in the southwest, b/c Supersoulty makes good use of his Catholicism, winning the Hispanic voter, giving the Dems nothing but CA and WA in the west (and HI of course).

But then I read that Nym90 is fom Wisconsin, so he wins that, giving him the election 274-264. A really close one.

I am a Catholic as well.
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7,052,770
Harry
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 35,431
Ukraine


« Reply #3 on: January 16, 2004, 06:28:42 PM »

OK, I will make an other attempt at posting my map when I get home from school.

It's similar to most of the other maps here, but I think the Dems will make a surprisingly strong showing in the south and mid-west, winning most of the tossups there, but then losing the election due to bad performance in the southwest, b/c Supersoulty makes good use of his Catholicism, winning the Hispanic voter, giving the Dems nothing but CA and WA in the west (and HI of course).

But then I read that Nym90 is fom Wisconsin, so he wins that, giving him the election 274-264. A really close one.

I am a Catholic as well.

Ah, me didn't know that. Then I assume you will attack Supersoulty on who's a "Catholic's best friend" and retain  lot of Hispanics, thus making AZ, NM and FL more in play again. But it will hurt you among WASPs in the South, so he might win back some there...I will have to alter my predictions.

Basically I will not make my Catholicism an issue.  However, my Catholicism shuold prevent Supersoulty from exploiting his.
So the effect is nil on both of us likely.
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7,052,770
Harry
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 35,431
Ukraine


« Reply #4 on: January 16, 2004, 06:59:48 PM »

Supersoulty wins, despite you winning LA, MS TN and AR, as well as NM, WI and MN.
Do you have a map?
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7,052,770
Harry
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 35,431
Ukraine


« Reply #5 on: January 16, 2004, 11:40:34 PM »
« Edited: January 16, 2004, 11:41:43 PM by Harry »

Here is the confidence map I came up with.
Nym90/Harry--237
Supersoulty/Demrepdan--205
Tossup--96
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7,052,770
Harry
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 35,431
Ukraine


« Reply #6 on: February 07, 2004, 08:14:32 AM »

Well for what it is worth, we are now tied.
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7,052,770
Harry
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 35,431
Ukraine


« Reply #7 on: February 07, 2004, 08:19:54 AM »

I'm not sure if we are going to have a senate or not, but if we do, i'm sure you can run if you want.
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7,052,770
Harry
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 35,431
Ukraine


« Reply #8 on: February 07, 2004, 08:25:51 AM »

I'm not sure if we are going to have a senate or not, but if we do, i'm sure you can run if you want.

just as long as i get to vote for it...lol. Are you the VP yet?

No, the election hasn't bee held yet, we've done primaries and registration only. Today is the debate, and later there will be the actual election.
Today?  I thought it was tomorrow.
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