2009/10 boundary changes. Part I: UPDATED

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Derby North would fall on a 4.43 swing (!?)

Boundary changes around Derby were quite radical; Derby South is now a constituency that fits the name (and it becomes bomb-proof Labour by my reckoning, don't know what Wells thinks), while Derby North would better be called Derby North West; it'll now stretch from Labour voting wards north of the city centre to the LibDem strongholds (in local politics at least) in the western side of the city. The Tories three best wards in the city are all removed to Mid Derbyshire.
I think it was a Labour plan.

[minionofmidas]

I especially like the changes to High Peak.

They removed Hathersage IIRC?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I especially like the changes to High Peak.

They removed Hathersage IIRC?

Yep. They finally realised that Hathersage et al have (almost literally) nothing to do with the communities on the western side of the Peak. I'm also happy about the electoral implications o/c (although even if those were tiny, I'd still be pleased).

[afleitch]

The South East and London



And another 5% swing

[Harry Hayfield]

May I ask that the moderator merges this discussion with the discussion I launched about my calculations (as they appear to be the same thing). I have e-mailed Martin Baxter and he says that my calculations are indeed correct. So at the first stage (based on % similarity with the old constituencies), the notional results for 2005 are:

Labour 347 + Speaker = 348
Conservatives 213
Liberal Democrats 60
Northern Ireland Parties 18
Scottish Nationalists 6
Plaid Cymru 2
Independent (Peter Law) 1
Independent (Richard Taylor) 1
Respect (George Galloway) 1
Labour majority of 46

The Labour majority is based on it's 23 most marginal seats which are:

Clwyd West
Crawley
Battersea
Warwick and Leamington
Stroud
Gillingham and Rainham
Rochester and Strood
Hove
Dartford
Finchley and Golders Green
Somerset North East
High Peak
Portsmouth North
Stourbridge
City of Chester
Hastings and Rye
Cardiff North
Calder Valley
Wirral West
Burton
Swindon South
Corby

[afleitch]

I would prefer it if this thread stayed seperate. I'm offering a series of maps for a region by region analysis to show a visual impact of the boundary changes. I'm also using Anthony Well's methodology, not Baxters. While both have their flaws, (as does Rawlings and Thrasher when they get round to it) and Baxters results are more freely avaliable I've decided to go with Wells due to his consideration of voting differences 'within' constituencies.