OH: DeWine 45%, Brown 42%

[Sarnstrom]

US Senate
Dewine 45% (46%)
Brown 42% (37%)

The numbers in brackets were the results from the last poll by Rasmussen.

http://www.buckeyestateblog.com/node/524?PHPSESSID=f228cac42df3056f90a96f70a219040f

[Alcon]

This could be a blip, or this could be something.  Either way, poor Ohio.

[Gabu]

Either way, poor Ohio.

Yep.  Two horrible choices.

[TheresNoMoney]

Brown would be an awesome Senator. He is excellent on labor and trade issues and a true champion of the working man.

Let's hope his campaign keeps gaining on DeWine.

[Yates]

Either way, poor Ohio.

Yep.  Two horrible choices.

[TheresNoMoney]

Fighting for the working man is always the right fight.

[Gabu]

Fighting for the working man is always the right fight.

No, it is alwys pandering to the barin-dead average blue-collar. Its getting cheap votes by manipulating the follish blue-collar. How do you think such Reds as FDR and LBJ got elected?

If you don't like the fact that America is a democracy, you're welcome to move to, say, Iran or Saudi Arabia.

[DanielX]

Fighting for the working man is always the right fight.

Define "working man".

[TheresNoMoney]

Define "working man".

Lower and middle-class people who work for a living and live off of their wages.

[DanielX]

Define "working man".

Lower and middle-class people who work for a living and live off of their wages.

And will all the millions of them benefit from one particular candidate over another?

[TheresNoMoney]

And will all the millions of them benefit from one particular candidate over another?

Definitely. Sherrod has always been on the side of the working man.

[Sam Spade]

I have to assume that it's simply MOE movement without more polls to back up any particular reason for movement in the race.

Anyway, it's still too early and Rasmussen's one day polls still don't leave me with that much confidence, ever.

I noticed the last Columbus Dispatch poll really only dealt with Governor's primaries, not with anything else.  Too bad.

Still waiting for Mason-Dixon or SUSA to do a poll here, pretty please.

[Republican Michigander]

I'm not a fan of either of these two. They are both better than my state's jokers, but that doesn't say much.

[Ben.]

Brown looks to have solidified the Dem base... he won't go any further than that.

DeWine position remains the same with his campaign only having just begun.

DeWine will outspend Brown by a massive margin, while Brown will be unable to compete outside of cleveland and Colombia, In the end DeWine is going to win by a sizable margin... thank god!

[HardRCafé]

As scary as Brown is, I still expect DeWine to run three or four points behind Blackwell.

[DanielX]

And will all the millions of them benefit from one particular candidate over another?

Definitely. Sherrod has always been on the side of the working man.

EVERY one of those millions? I'm skeptical. Maybe this 'Sherrod' character would benefit SOME or even MOST 'workingmen', but ALL?

[Ben.]

As scary as Brown is, I still expect DeWine to run three or four points behind Blackwell.

I think it'll be the other way round, Blackwell will help bring the GOP base out for DeWine but he wont bring moderates, conservative Democrats and independents out and they won't vote for Blackwell over Strickland.

DeWine will benifit from the base which Blackwell turns out but Blackwell wont get a boost from the moderates who vote for DeWine, as most will then vote for Strickland as Governor.

So in the end Blackwell will help DeWine more, by bringing out the base, than DeWine, many of who's voters may vote for Strickland, will Blackwell... indeed I'd say that (as this current poll shows) DeWine is going to outperform Blackwell by 5 pionts or more.   

[Galactic Overlord]

As scary as Brown is, I still expect DeWine to run three or four points behind Blackwell.

I think it'll be the other way round, Blackwell will help bring the GOP base out for DeWine but he wont bring moderates, conservative Democrats and independents out and they won't vote for Blackwell over Strickland.

DeWine will benifit from the base which Blackwell turns out but Blackwell wont get a boost from the moderates who vote for DeWine, as most will then vote for Strickland as Governor.

So in the end Blackwell will help DeWine more, by bringing out the base, than DeWine, many of who's voters may vote for Strickland, will Blackwell... indeed I'd say that (as this current poll shows) DeWine is going to outperform Blackwell by 5 pionts or more.   

I can't say who might run ahead of whom, as the two candidates will probably have different pools of voters.

Blackwell has typically gotten a 100,000 vote margin out of Hamiliton County (Cincinatti) in his past few races, more than Republicans would usually get because Blackwell does well among black voters there.  DeWine probably won't do that well.  Where Blackwell may help DeWine is in increasing turnout in the suburban counties around Columbus (Fairfield, Delaware, Licking) and Cincinnatti (Clermont, Warren, Butler) and in western Ohio counties.  DeWine will probably do better among moderate voters in Columbus, whereas Blackwell may lose them to Strickland, but he could pick up black votes from the city, so it may balance it out.  But Blackwell can afford to fall back a little in Columbus if my earlier scenario plays out.

Ted Strickland will probably win the southeastern parts of the state (Pike, Vinton counties, etc) the areas that were ancesterally Democrat, but if Blackwell gets 70% in Hamiliton, that would cancel out Strickland's advantage, as those counties are very small.  Brown is about as liberal as Kuncicich and I doubt he will do well in those areas, so DeWine would pick up votes there.  I think DeWine in the end will run a little behind Blackwell.  DeWine will win moderates who have supported him before, the traditionally Republican areas and rural counties, while Brown piles up wins in Cleveland and the northwest, but his liberal voting record will be an obstacle, unless DeWine does so horribly that no one cares.  But I don't think conservatives will be as energized behind DeWine, due to various reasons (guns, the "Gang of 7" agreement) and if they're really apathetic, it could come down to a 51%-48% victory. 

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Blackwell will not get 70% in Hamilton county. That'd be running almost 20 points ahead of Bush, and as history has shown, running a black Republican candidate only results in a marginal increase in the black vote. He may have done so in the past, but that was against much weaker opponents.

[Galactic Overlord]

Blackwell will not get 70% in Hamilton county. That'd be running almost 20 points ahead of Bush, and as history has shown, running a black Republican candidate only results in a marginal increase in the black vote. He may have done so in the past, but that was against much weaker opponents.

Bob Taft got 59% in Hamiliton County in 1998 when he had a serious race, his statewide total was 50%-44%.  I'm not saying Blackwell *will* get 70% but getting close is not out of the question.  Cincinatti is Blackwell's home base, Bush did poorer among urban voters in Ohio overall, so that also counts for the discrepency.

[Rococo4]

As scary as Brown is, I still expect DeWine to run three or four points behind Blackwell.

I think it'll be the other way round, Blackwell will help bring the GOP base out for DeWine but he wont bring moderates, conservative Democrats and independents out and they won't vote for Blackwell over Strickland.

DeWine will benifit from the base which Blackwell turns out but Blackwell wont get a boost from the moderates who vote for DeWine, as most will then vote for Strickland as Governor.

So in the end Blackwell will help DeWine more, by bringing out the base, than DeWine, many of who's voters may vote for Strickland, will Blackwell... indeed I'd say that (as this current poll shows) DeWine is going to outperform Blackwell by 5 pionts or more.   

I can't say who might run ahead of whom, as the two candidates will probably have different pools of voters.

Blackwell has typically gotten a 100,000 vote margin out of Hamiliton County (Cincinatti) in his past few races, more than Republicans would usually get because Blackwell does well among black voters there.  DeWine probably won't do that well.  Where Blackwell may help DeWine is in increasing turnout in the suburban counties around Columbus (Fairfield, Delaware, Licking) and Cincinnatti (Clermont, Warren, Butler) and in western Ohio counties.  DeWine will probably do better among moderate voters in Columbus, whereas Blackwell may lose them to Strickland, but he could pick up black votes from the city, so it may balance it out.  But Blackwell can afford to fall back a little in Columbus if my earlier scenario plays out.

Ted Strickland will probably win the southeastern parts of the state (Pike, Vinton counties, etc) the areas that were ancesterally Democrat, but if Blackwell gets 70% in Hamiliton, that would cancel out Strickland's advantage, as those counties are very small.  Brown is about as liberal as Kuncicich and I doubt he will do well in those areas, so DeWine would pick up votes there.  I think DeWine in the end will run a little behind Blackwell.  DeWine will win moderates who have supported him before, the traditionally Republican areas and rural counties, while Brown piles up wins in Cleveland and the northwest, but his liberal voting record will be an obstacle, unless DeWine does so horribly that no one cares.  But I don't think conservatives will be as energized behind DeWine, due to various reasons (guns, the "Gang of 7" agreement) and if they're really apathetic, it could come down to a 51%-48% victory. 

fairly accurate.  The race is DeWine's to lose. It is tough to envision Republicans crossing over for Brown.....it just wont happen.  Those, including myself, who have been dissatisfied with DeWine wont stand by and let Brown win.  In the choice of those two, DeWine will win.

Blackwell has a tougher road due to Taft and what he has left behind.  He can still win - this is still a Republican state.  It really will all depend on turnout for Blackwell - can he get the religious vote out in the numbers he needs.  If he can he has a good chance.  It would help if Petro folds up shop soon and accepts the inevitbale and endorses Blackwell.  More so the quitting now than the endorsement.

[Sarnstrom]

April 1, 2006--The latest Rasmussen Reports survey of the Ohio Senate race shows Republican Senator Mike DeWine now leading Democratic Congressman Sherrod Brown by just a few percentage points, 45% to 42%, with 9% Not Sure. 

In our mid-February survey, DeWine led Brown 46% to 37%, an improvement for DeWine attributable to Democratic in-fighting in the wake of Democrat Paul Hackett's controversial departure from the race. At the time, Brown's support among fellow Democrats had slumped by eight points, and it was unclear whether this would prove a hiccup or a persistent problem.

It seems to be a hiccup. Brown has now recaptured six percentage points from Democrats, attracting 75% support, the same percentage DeWine wins from Republicans.

The race for Governor in Ohio is not as competitive at this time. Democrat Ted Strickland has a double digit lead over Republicans competing with him to replace the amazingly unpopular incumbent, Robert Taft.

DeWine is viewed favorably by 57% of likely voters, unfavorably by 38%. That's an improvement of six points compared to a month ago. Brown is viewed favorably by 46%, unfavorably by 35%.

Brown has more room than the incumbent to improve his standing both with all voters and with fellow party members. Nineteen percent (19%) are still Not Sure what to think about Brown, versus 5% Not Sure of DeWine. Sixteen percent (16%) of Democrats are also Not Sure of Brown. Only 2% of the GOP aren't sure about DeWine.

Half of all Ohio voters say elections are generally fair to voters, 37% say No. Fifty-nine percent (59%) believe most politicians would change their vote for a contribution, but 56% also oppose public funding of campaigns.

About as many voters place their highest trust in churches and civic organizations as sources of campaign information as award such trust to the media.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/March%202006/Ohio%20Senate%20March.htm

[© tweed]

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=38239.0

Lol, and you even posted the thread yourself!

[Sarnstrom]

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=38239.0

Lol, and you even posted the thread yourself!

I was aware that I had already posted a thread with the basic numbers. I decided to start a new thread now that Rasmussen has the numbers on their website with insight to go along with the poll.

[HardRCafé]

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1088