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Author Topic: AZ: Napolitano and Kyl cruising...  (Read 2343 times)
nick
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« on: April 05, 2006, 08:12:47 am »
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Rasmussen:

ARIZONA GOVERNOR
Janet Napolitano (D) 54%
Don Goldwater (R) 34%

Janet Napolitano (D) 56%
Jan Florez (R) 28%

Janet Napolitano (D) 59%
John Greene (R) 25%

ARIZONA SENATE
Jon Kyl (R) 56%
Jim Pederson (D) 33%
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MSUfan
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« Reply #1 on: April 05, 2006, 04:52:08 pm »
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Pederson has moved up. I saw him at 27% in the last poll. Hmmm......I smell an upset.
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #2 on: April 05, 2006, 05:29:53 pm »
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Quote from: Jtfdem on April 05, 2006, 04:52:08 pm
Pederson has moved up. I saw him at 27% in the last poll. Hmmm......I smell an upset.

Cheesy
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“The meaning of life is not to be discovered only after death in some hidden, mysterious realm; on the contrary, it can be found by eating the succulent fruit of the Tree of Life and by living in the here and now as fully and creatively as we can”

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Gabu
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« Reply #3 on: April 05, 2006, 06:45:11 pm »
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Quote from: Jtfdem on April 05, 2006, 04:52:08 pm
Pederson has moved up. I saw him at 27% in the last poll. Hmmm......I smell an upset.

That reminds me of that time that that election projection website predicted a Kerry win in Utah because of a faulty projection algorithm.
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"To me, 'underground' sounds like subway trains.  That's the only sound I associate with 'underground'." - Everett
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« Reply #4 on: April 05, 2006, 09:15:47 pm »
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Quote from: Senator Gabu on April 05, 2006, 06:45:11 pm
Quote from: Jtfdem on April 05, 2006, 04:52:08 pm
Pederson has moved up. I saw him at 27% in the last poll. Hmmm......I smell an upset.

That reminds me of that time that that election projection website predicted a Kerry win in Utah because of a faulty projection algorithm.

Algorithm?  Fancy word for "assume whatever trend was in the last two polls will continue until election day."
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Gabu
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« Reply #5 on: April 05, 2006, 09:32:17 pm »
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Quote from: ATFFL on April 05, 2006, 09:15:47 pm
Algorithm?  Fancy word for "assume whatever trend was in the last two polls will continue until election day."

Well, the way he made the calculated prediction was essentially to get the best fit for the data points to two straight lines (one for Kerry and one for Bush) and then make the prediction be whatever the percentages are when the x-value on the line is November 2.

Unfortunately, there were only two whole polls from Utah, which made this procedure rather subject to the margin of error, and he edited the algorithm to simply use the last poll received if there were three polls or less from that state.
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"To me, 'underground' sounds like subway trains.  That's the only sound I associate with 'underground'." - Everett
Jake
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« Reply #6 on: April 06, 2006, 07:21:30 pm »
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Quote from: Jtfdem on April 05, 2006, 04:52:08 pm
Pederson has moved up. I saw him at 27% in the last poll. Hmmm......I smell an upset.

Yes, Scoonie says it will be within 10%, but why stop there.
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MasterJedi
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« Reply #7 on: April 07, 2006, 10:37:05 am »
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Quote from: Lt. Governor SoS on April 05, 2006, 05:29:53 pm
Quote from: Jtfdem on April 05, 2006, 04:52:08 pm
Pederson has moved up. I saw him at 27% in the last poll. Hmmm......I smell an upset.

Cheesy

You lefties need to know when you can't win. Tongue
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TheresNoMoney
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« Reply #8 on: April 07, 2006, 02:03:29 pm »
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Quote from: Jake on April 06, 2006, 07:21:30 pm
Yes, Scoonie says it will be within 10%, but why stop there.

And I stick by it.
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E: -3.25
S: -2.72

Quote from: AuH2O on June 02, 2005, 04:18:17 pm
On the GOP side, for 2016, look out for Gov. Phill Kline (KS), Gov. Ralph Reed (GA), Gov. JD Hayworth (AZ), Sen. David Vitter (LA), among others.
Democratic Hawk
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« Reply #9 on: April 08, 2006, 05:54:56 pm »
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I can imagine both Napolitano and Kyl winning re-election by similar margins over their Republican and Democrat opponents

Dave
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Moderate Liberal Populist Smiley [Personal 45%/Economic 42%] / Defense 'Hawk'

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nick
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« Reply #10 on: April 08, 2006, 11:03:35 pm »
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Within .5% by election day.
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