AZ: Napolitano and Kyl cruising...
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 18, 2024, 10:44:16 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2006 Elections
  2006 Gubernatorial Election Polls
  AZ: Napolitano and Kyl cruising...		 « previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: AZ: Napolitano and Kyl cruising...  (Read 3101 times)
Moooooo
nickshepDEM
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,909


Political Matrix
E: -0.52, S: 3.65

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: April 05, 2006, 08:12:47 AM »
Rasmussen:

ARIZONA GOVERNOR
Janet Napolitano (D) 54%
Don Goldwater (R) 34%

Janet Napolitano (D) 56%
Jan Florez (R) 28%

Janet Napolitano (D) 59%
John Greene (R) 25%

ARIZONA SENATE
Jon Kyl (R) 56%
Jim Pederson (D) 33%
Logged
Flying Dog
Jtfdem
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,404
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: April 05, 2006, 04:52:08 PM »
Pederson has moved up. I saw him at 27% in the last poll. Hmmm......I smell an upset.
Logged
Speed of Sound
LiberalPA
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,166
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: April 05, 2006, 05:29:53 PM »
Quote from: Jtfdem on April 05, 2006, 04:52:08 PM
Pederson has moved up. I saw him at 27% in the last poll. Hmmm......I smell an upset.

Cheesy
Logged
Gabu
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,386
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -4.32, S: -6.52

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: April 05, 2006, 06:45:11 PM »
Quote from: Jtfdem on April 05, 2006, 04:52:08 PM
Pederson has moved up. I saw him at 27% in the last poll. Hmmm......I smell an upset.

That reminds me of that time that that election projection website predicted a Kerry win in Utah because of a faulty projection algorithm.
Logged
ATFFL
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,754
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: April 05, 2006, 09:15:47 PM »
Quote from: Senator Gabu on April 05, 2006, 06:45:11 PM
Quote from: Jtfdem on April 05, 2006, 04:52:08 PM
Pederson has moved up. I saw him at 27% in the last poll. Hmmm......I smell an upset.

That reminds me of that time that that election projection website predicted a Kerry win in Utah because of a faulty projection algorithm.

Algorithm?  Fancy word for "assume whatever trend was in the last two polls will continue until election day."
Logged
Gabu
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,386
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -4.32, S: -6.52

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: April 05, 2006, 09:32:17 PM »
Quote from: Tredrick on April 05, 2006, 09:15:47 PM
Algorithm?  Fancy word for "assume whatever trend was in the last two polls will continue until election day."

Well, the way he made the calculated prediction was essentially to get the best fit for the data points to two straight lines (one for Kerry and one for Bush) and then make the prediction be whatever the percentages are when the x-value on the line is November 2.

Unfortunately, there were only two whole polls from Utah, which made this procedure rather subject to the margin of error, and he edited the algorithm to simply use the last poll received if there were three polls or less from that state.
Logged
Jake
dubya2004
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,621
Cuba


Political Matrix
E: -0.90, S: -0.35

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: April 06, 2006, 07:21:30 PM »
Quote from: Jtfdem on April 05, 2006, 04:52:08 PM
Pederson has moved up. I saw him at 27% in the last poll. Hmmm......I smell an upset.

Yes, Scoonie says it will be within 10%, but why stop there.
Logged
MasterJedi
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 23,619
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: April 07, 2006, 10:37:05 AM »
Quote from: Lt. Governor SoS on April 05, 2006, 05:29:53 PM
Quote from: Jtfdem on April 05, 2006, 04:52:08 PM
Pederson has moved up. I saw him at 27% in the last poll. Hmmm......I smell an upset.

Cheesy

You lefties need to know when you can't win. Tongue
Logged
TheresNoMoney
Scoonie
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,907


Political Matrix
E: -3.25, S: -2.72

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: April 07, 2006, 02:03:29 PM »
Quote from: Jake on April 06, 2006, 07:21:30 PM
Yes, Scoonie says it will be within 10%, but why stop there.

And I stick by it.
Logged
Democratic Hawk
LucysBeau
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,703
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -2.58, S: 2.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: April 08, 2006, 05:54:56 PM »
I can imagine both Napolitano and Kyl winning re-election by similar margins over their Republican and Democrat opponents

Dave
Logged
Moooooo
nickshepDEM
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,909


Political Matrix
E: -0.52, S: 3.65

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: April 08, 2006, 11:03:35 PM »
Within .5% by election day.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.034 seconds with 14 queries.