How much longer for Blair?

[Lincoln Republican]

With scandal swirling around his government, will Tony Blair be out of 10  Downing Street by the end of 2006?  Or when?

Who will replace him as PM in the U.K.

Please discuss.

Thanks.

[afleitch]

Blair is always stronger than he appears to be. His death knell has been sounded every month or so for the past few years. Apparently he knows when he'll go, but won't say when. Even an (expected) drubbing in May local elections is unlikely to put pressure on him.

[Platypus]

IF I were his advisor, either late in this spring after some kind of major victory or late next spring.

If things, including the weather, are good when youstep down you're looked upon more favourably, at least in the short term. It also makes the new leader look beter, and for that reason Blair will step down in January '07

[MasterJedi]

I seriously doubt he'll go anytime soon.

[??????????]

Hopefully in a short time he'll be gone.

[Bono]

Hopefully in a short time he'll be gone.

^^^^^^

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Whenever he wants to or whenever Gordon pushes him. He won't go before the summer though.
I have a vauge suspicion that he might retire in early 2007.
But no matter what, he's pledged to retire before the next General election (2010 at the very latest).

[??????????]

Whenever he wants to or whenever Gordon pushes him. He won't go before the summer though.
I have a vauge suspicion that he might retire in early 2007.
But no matter what, he's pledged to retire before the next General election (2010 at the very latest).

Whats the chance of a Tory victory? Or is more of the same in store?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Whats the chance of a Tory victory? Or is more of the same in store?

You mean at the next General Election? It's too early to tell that sort of stuff right now (we're three or four years out after all) but basic electoral maths say that the chances of a Tory majority are very slim.

If you're interested, opinion polls (when taking into account MoE's) are currently showing Labour up a little bit from the last General Election (which bearing in mind current problems in Scotland, likely means up quite a lot in England north of the Severn-Wash line) and the Tories are up a bit more. The LibDems have certainly dropped a small but significant amount since then, with the ex-LibDem voters moving towards the new look "liberal" Tories. But they don't seem to be under threat of a wipeout anymore.

[??????????]

Whats the chance of a Tory victory? Or is more of the same in store?

You mean at the next General Election? It's too early to tell that sort of stuff right now (we're three or four years out after all) but basic electoral maths say that the chances of a Tory majority are very slim.

If you're interested, opinion polls (when taking into account MoE's) are currently showing Labour up a little bit from the last General Election (which bearing in mind current problems in Scotland, likely means up quite a lot in England north of the Severn-Wash line) and the Tories are up a bit more. The LibDems have certainly dropped a small but significant amount since then, with the ex-LibDem voters moving towards the new look "liberal" Tories. But they don't seem to be under threat of a wipeout anymore.

Did you ever make any maps showing the most conservative v liberal areas of your country, based on election results, religion, etc? I don't remember seeing you doing one. You always make great maps.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Did you ever make any maps showing the most conservative v liberal areas of your country, based on election results, religion, etc? I don't remember seeing you doing one. You always make great maps.

Not as such, but I have made a lot of demographic maps (largely to do with employment or qualifications, because those two things are the best indicators of class which is the dominant indicator of political affiliation in the U.K).
Liberal/Conservative in a U.S sense would be very hard to do for a couple of reasons, but it might be possible to work out some form of index of probable social liberalism based on a couple of demographic factors.

[Michael Z]

My gut feeling tells me he'll go in September 2006, but that's all it is, a gut feeling (bearing in mind, however, that my gut also told me Greece would win the 2004 European soccer championships).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

My gut feeling tells me he'll go in September 2006, but that's all it is, a gut feeling (bearing in mind, however, that my gut also told me Greece would win the 2004 European soccer championships).

At the Labour Conference? He's always been one for big set-piece events (and Labour leaders have historically liked to use Conference as a bit of a stage) so it's certainly possible.

[afleitch]

Thats a thought. Whose conference is first, Labours or the Conservatives? Either way it would overshadow both.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Thats a thought. Whose conference is first, Labours or the Conservatives? Either way it would overshadow both.

Always goes; Lib, Lab, Con.

[Michael Z]

My gut feeling tells me he'll go in September 2006, but that's all it is, a gut feeling (bearing in mind, however, that my gut also told me Greece would win the 2004 European soccer championships).

At the Labour Conference? He's always been one for big set-piece events (and Labour leaders have historically liked to use Conference as a bit of a stage) so it's certainly possible.

The Labour Conference is in September? See, my gut has logic.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Labour Conference is in September? See, my gut has logic.

The Labour Conference is almost always in late September. Tories in early October.

[minionofmidas]

I seriously doubt he'll go anytime soon.

That's my gut feeling too ... that they'll have to drag him out of No 10 kicking and screaming.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

That's my gut feeling too ... that they'll have to drag him out of No 10 kicking and screaming.

I used to think that; up until he said that 2005 would be his last election.

I'm increasingly thinking that some of his allies are much keener for him to stay on for as long as possible than he is himself; he's spent the last year or so tinkering on various legacy projects after all.
There hasn't been a real Cabinet reshuffle for almost a year, and interestingly enough, he seems to be much less involved in the running of Government than he used to be (After all, a few years ago he would not have let Kelly strike the deals needed to get that Education bill through).

[minionofmidas]

That's my gut feeling too ... that they'll have to drag him out of No 10 kicking and screaming.

I used to think that; up until he said that 2005 would be his last election.

I'm increasingly thinking that some of his allies are much keener for him to stay on for as long as possible than he is himself; he's spent the last year or so tinkering on various legacy projects after all.
There hasn't been a real Cabinet reshuffle for almost a year, and interestingly enough, he seems to be much less involved in the running of Government than he used to be (After all, a few years ago he would not have let Kelly strike the deals needed to get that Education bill through).

True...doesn't have to mean much. Pretty much all the above could have been said - was said - about Helmut Kohl in 1995.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

True...doesn't have to mean much. Pretty much all the above could have been said - was said - about Helmut Kohl in 1995.

...and it could have also been said (and in some cases was said) about Harold Wilson in 1975.

O/c Blair can't stay for more than a few years even if he wants to; Brown won't let that happen.
He might be trying to do unto Brown what Attlee did until Morrison (ie; dely retirement for as long as possible to prevent rival from taking over) but the big difference is that Brown has a much wider following in Labour than Morrison ever did.

[minionofmidas]

...also what Kohl tried to do to/ did to Schäuble, what Teufel tried to do to Oettinger, what Adenauer tried to do to Erhard... it seems like that's something that does not tend to work, but that's always very tempting to those in government. Probably just because it provides them with a good excuse for staying in office.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

...also what Kohl tried to do to/ did to Schäuble, what Teufel tried to do to Oettinger, what Adenauer tried to do to Erhard... it seems like that's something that does not tend to work, but that's always very tempting to those in government. Probably just because it provides them with a good excuse for staying in office.

Another reason would be because after being in that sort of job for so long, you start to really, really hate some of your collegues. Strange thing is (over here at least) they often patch things up a few years after both people involved have retired (or been retired).

[minionofmidas]

I don't think it's "hate"... it's more about noticing the other person's incompetence but not your own.  Once you've settled into retirement, you've a chance to regain some perspective.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I don't think it's "hate"... it's more about noticing the other person's incompetence but not your own.  Once you've settled into retirement, you've a chance to regain some perspective.

Up to a point anyway; but there are a couple of cases where it does seem to have been extremely personal.
Most of these cases involved either George Brown or Margaret Thatcher... although come to think of it, people generally didn't make up with them so...