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| | |-+  2016 Senate Predictions & Analysis
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Author Topic: 2016 Senate Predictions & Analysis  (Read 30618 times)
Cory Booker
olawakandi
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« Reply #25 on: May 24, 2015, 09:34:19 am »
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Governor Strickland will be great!!!!

New senate Class after Clinton-Castro beats Walker 272-266
Ca Harris; Feinstein Dem.   Harris win 56-44
FL Murphy; Nelson Dem.     Murphy wins 51-49
IL Duckworth; Durbin Dem. Duckworth win 52-47
IN Stutzman; Donnelly Split R's win 60-40
MD Edwards; Cardin Dem.  
NV CCM; Heller Split.   CCM win 51-49
Pa Sestak; Casey Dem Sestak 51-49
WI Feingold; Baldwin Dem feingold 52-48

NH Hassan; Shaheen if she so choses to run

New House

201-234 R controlled
51D-50R Senate

« Last Edit: May 24, 2015, 08:37:26 pm by OC »Logged

President:
S-NJ Cory Booker
P-OH Tim Ryan

Gubernatorial election
S-NJ Phil Murphy
P-VA Ralph Northam

Senatorial election
S-NV Rosen
L-MI Kid Rock😂
S-OH Sherrod Brown
TP-AZ Kelli Ward elected
Dwarven Dragon
Wulfric
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Political Matrix
E: -1.68, S: 1.22

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« Reply #26 on: May 25, 2015, 01:28:19 am »
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Republicans: 51
Democrats: 47
Toss-Ups: 2

Democrats would win both Toss-Ups if the election was held today, for a 51-49 Republican Majority


Freshman Senate Class

Kamala Harris (D-CA)
Catherine Cortez-Masto (D-NV)
Tammy Duckworth (D-IL)
Russ Feingold (D-WI)
Patrick Murphy (D-FL)
Chris VanHollen (D-MD)

John Fleming (R-LA) (yeah, yeah, he'll have part of Vitter's term, but whatever.)
Marlin Stutzman (R-IN)
(If Rand Paul is the Presidential Nominee:) Andy Barr (R-KY)
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Democrats, when you consider supporting single payer, consider who you are disobeying if you choose to support it:


#GoodDemsNeverDisobeyPelosi

https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/FNNQ3QN

http://www.tengaged.com/user/JasonEldridge
----

'17 Gov. Ratings: https://tinyurl.com/h35xfkr (9/13: NJ - Strong Lean D --> Safe D; 2018 under construction)
'18 House Rating: Strong Lean R
Cory Booker
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« Reply #27 on: May 25, 2015, 03:30:31 am »
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Battle of control; I think the fourth seat will go either through NH or Pa. Which is a plausability. Should Hassan make up her mind.
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President:
S-NJ Cory Booker
P-OH Tim Ryan

Gubernatorial election
S-NJ Phil Murphy
P-VA Ralph Northam

Senatorial election
S-NV Rosen
L-MI Kid Rock😂
S-OH Sherrod Brown
TP-AZ Kelli Ward elected
Cory Booker
olawakandi
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« Reply #28 on: May 29, 2015, 07:54:56 am »
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I think Pa needs to go back to tossup on Sabato crystal ball.
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President:
S-NJ Cory Booker
P-OH Tim Ryan

Gubernatorial election
S-NJ Phil Murphy
P-VA Ralph Northam

Senatorial election
S-NV Rosen
L-MI Kid Rock😂
S-OH Sherrod Brown
TP-AZ Kelli Ward elected
muon2
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« Reply #29 on: October 24, 2016, 10:35:21 am »

Stickied as the election approaches.
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Great American Eclipse seconds before totality showing Baily's Beads.
ElectionsGuy
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E: 7.35, S: -7.30

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« Reply #30 on: October 29, 2016, 11:45:52 pm »
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Ratings



Republican: 30
Safe R: 13
Likely R: 3
Lean R: 1
Toss-Up: 6  <-- Overall
Lean D: 0
Likely D: 2
Safe D: 9
Democratic: 36

Prediction



Democrats: 51
Republicans: 49

Exact Percentage Predictions
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #31 on: November 08, 2016, 12:21:39 am »
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Final Predictions

Here

Final Ratings



R + Safe R: 45
Likely R: 1
Lean R: 1
Toss-Up: 6
Lean D: 1
Likely D: 1
D + Safe D: 45
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ElectionsGuy
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Political Matrix
E: 7.35, S: -7.30

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« Reply #32 on: November 25, 2016, 01:57:38 am »
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How off was I? Ex: D+2 means 2 points more Democratic in margin than actual result.

AL: Even
AK: I was way off, Metcalfe came in 4th!
AZ: D+4
AR: R+1
CA: Even
CO: D+5
CT: R+6
FL: D+4
GA: D+1
HI: R+9
ID: D+5
IL: R+5
IN: D+8
IA: D+12 (ouch)
KS: D+4
KY: R+4
MD: Even
MO: D+2
NV: Even
NH: D+2
NY: R+4
NC: D+3
ND: D+27! (lol)
OH: D+7
OK: D+7
OR: R+2
PA: D+3
SC: D+7
SD: D+18! (what is it with the Dakotas?)
UT: D+4
VT: D+12
WA: R+2
WI: D+7

Overall, better than the presidential race, but still awful.
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LLR
LongLiveRock
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E: -6.84, S: -7.13

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« Reply #33 on: November 25, 2016, 08:05:59 am »
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To be fair, the oil boom caused a rapid conservative shift in the Dakotas that wasn't easy to predict and led to huge landslide margins...
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Mike67
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« Reply #34 on: December 08, 2016, 10:08:26 pm »
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I was really surprised when they GOP kept control of the Senate. I was really expecting the Democrats to gain a 3-4 vote majority.
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Congrats to Donald Trump on your Election as President and good luck. BUILD THAT WALL!
Cory Booker
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« Reply #35 on: December 11, 2016, 06:43:37 pm »
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When you have an ethically challenged candidate and the economy isn't the best, then this is what happens
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President:
S-NJ Cory Booker
P-OH Tim Ryan

Gubernatorial election
S-NJ Phil Murphy
P-VA Ralph Northam

Senatorial election
S-NV Rosen
L-MI Kid Rock😂
S-OH Sherrod Brown
TP-AZ Kelli Ward elected
Dave Leip
leip
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« Reply #36 on: February 04, 2017, 09:31:50 am »

The 2016 prediction scores have (finally) been posted.  We had no perfect state-level predictions, while six members predicted correctly 33 contests.  BushCountry had the overall highest score at 56 with 32 states wins.

Enjoy,
Dave
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MT Treasurer
IndyRep
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« Reply #37 on: February 07, 2017, 07:27:49 pm »
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I knew Johnson was going to win, but I predicted Feingold to avoid people on this forum calling me a HACK!!1!!

Oh well, my prediction was really bad. I'm not going to underestimate the GOP or blindly trust the polls in 2018. Lessons learned.
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2018 "Endorsements":

MT-SEN: Matt Rosendale (R)
MO-SEN: Josh Hawley (R)
WV-SEN: Evan Jenkins (R)
NH-GOV: Stefany Shaheen (D)
NH-01: Carol Shea-Porter (D)
NH-02: Annie Kuster (D)

Wulfric seems to just LOVE Tester.
LLR
LongLiveRock
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E: -6.84, S: -7.13

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« Reply #38 on: February 08, 2017, 07:29:55 am »
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I knew Johnson was going to win, but I predicted Feingold to avoid people on this forum calling me a HACK!!1!!

Oh well, my prediction was really bad. I'm not going to underestimate the GOP or blindly trust the polls in 2018. Lessons learned.

Oh no, what if people on the internet don't like me
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