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Author Topic: 2014 Senatorial Predictions  (Read 27693 times)
Del Tachi
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« Reply #100 on: June 06, 2014, 02:35:37 pm »
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I'll be updating my prediction after the June 24th Mississippi runoff.  If McDaniel wins, that alone probably flips MS, AK, AR, KY and NC from GOP to the Democrats.
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« Reply #101 on: June 06, 2014, 09:06:07 pm »
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I'll be updating my prediction after the June 24th Mississippi runoff.  If McDaniel wins, that alone probably flips MS, AK, AR, KY and NC from GOP to the Democrats.

Isn't that a little extreme?
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« Reply #102 on: June 06, 2014, 09:09:13 pm »
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Also, Del Tachi, if the GOP would lose 5 Senate seats due to McDaniel, wouldn't GOP leaders in the state be more concerned and not talking about "dialing back" help to Cochran?  Wouldn't they be panicked/horrified and do everything possible to help him?
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #103 on: June 06, 2014, 10:57:29 pm »
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Also, Del Tachi, if the GOP would lose 5 Senate seats due to McDaniel, wouldn't GOP leaders in the state be more concerned and not talking about "dialing back" help to Cochran?  Wouldn't they be panicked/horrified and do everything possible to help him?

First of all, not all national groups are letting their foot off the gas in the runoff, and we can expect in-state groups to ramp-up their efforts.

As for your argument, I don't think the national GOP even realizes how much this guy is a disaster waiting to happen.  Except for the week of the nursing home incident, McDaniel's campaign has been relatively low-profile.  If he wins the primary, the heat of the spotlight most definitely intensifies on McDaniel - national Democratic organizations and liberal media will not let a single breath out of McDaniel's mouth undissected and uncritcized.  McDaniel probably already has said dozens of highly objectional soundbites at his campaign events so far, its just that the national liberal establishment isn't listening like the way they will be after June 24th (should he win).

Also, the people at the NRSC probably suffer from the same one-dimensional, not-backed-in-any-sort-of-reality mindset of "it's Mississippi - Republicans will always win elections there, derrrrr."  

To them and y'all:  Jim Hood just called.   



As for how many seats McDaniel costs the GOP, I'm going to be honest and say I honestly don't know but it could get pretty ugly for the Republicans.  

Mitch McConnell being tied so intricately to the national Republican Party means that any major gaffes from any Tea Party backed candidates will probably hit him the hardest.  Couple that with McConnell's history as a serial underperformer and ALG's strong candidancy and I think that probably puts McConnell at the top of McDaniel's "friendly fire" list.

Bizarre comments about rape or other women's issues from McDaniel would probably stand to benefit female Democratic incumbents, and this could make Hagan and Landrieu favorites if the gaffe is repulsive enough.  Could also help ALG, Tennant and Nunn.  

Arkansas and Alaska are close anyway, so the GOP doesn't really have the luxury of having the crazy-ass things Chris McDaniel says blasted on Morning Joe and BuzzFeed.  

Now, please don't get me wrong:  Its not like voters in Colorado and Michigan will go into the polling booth on election day with Chris McDaniel's comments in the back of their heads (well, not most of them at least) but a particularly bad gaffe exploited properly by national Democrats would be enough to drive up liberal turnout which typical lags behind in midterm years.  Thus, a McDaniel nomination helps raise the Democrats' chances in every single race this year.  
« Last Edit: June 06, 2014, 10:59:30 pm by Del Tachi »Logged

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« Reply #104 on: June 07, 2014, 01:39:38 pm »
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Wow, that's a thorough analysis. 

It seems like the GOP has 2 options:
1. Pour millions into the runoff to try to keep McDaniel out of the nomination.
2. Make the GOP establishment/McDaniel's campaign treat McDaniel like a 5-year-old; not let him into certain interviews and only give him prepared speeches; make him practice/rehearse responses to a bunch of different question types and pound sensibility in his head; look at all his past interviews and come up with quick counterattacks should they arise

My guess is it'll probably be #2.
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« Reply #105 on: June 28, 2014, 06:40:31 pm »
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Now that most primaries have been completed I decided to finally make one of these.




I don't believe the GOP expanded the map in either OR, VA, or NH. Just media hype. However, one place where I do think they expanded the map is CO, where I'm more pessimistic than most here (although I still see Udall winning). Landrieu now looks more likely to lose than to win, especially because of the runoff. I still think McConnell will lose narrowly. Georgia is still something of a question mark, but I anticipate it will probably end up going Lean R. Iowa could go toss up, but Ernst's post primary bounce isn't enough to convince me...yet.
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Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. Given her name recognition and the fact that she's admittedly done a good enough job as SoS, this current frontrunner status is natural.

If she's the nominee, I'd probably vote for her, and she'd probably be at least an okay president.
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« Reply #106 on: June 28, 2014, 10:08:01 pm »
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Now that most primaries have been completed I decided to finally make one of these.




I don't believe the GOP expanded the map in either OR, VA, or NH. Just media hype. However, one place where I do think they expanded the map is CO, where I'm more pessimistic than most here (although I still see Udall winning). Landrieu now looks more likely to lose than to win, especially because of the runoff. I still think McConnell will lose narrowly. Georgia is still something of a question mark, but I anticipate it will probably end up going Lean R. Iowa could go toss up, but Ernst's post primary bounce isn't enough to convince me...yet.

IceSpear, that was very insightful. This is one of the more accurate maps in my view. I'll add that the National Journal argues that all three competitive Democrat-held Senate seats in the South will swing one way or the other together, which might be something to keep in mind once November is closer. Personally, I'm only ranking LA as a Republican pick-up because I don't think Landrieu has what it takes to win a runoff in this political climate (I don't think that any candidate can pass 50% in LA on November 4th), but I'm leaving AR and NC as Democratic holds, because it seems like Pryor is in a uniquely strong position, and Tillis is a weak candidate compared to Hagan.
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« Reply #107 on: June 28, 2014, 11:49:51 pm »
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Now that most primaries have been completed I decided to finally make one of these.




I don't believe the GOP expanded the map in either OR, VA, or NH. Just media hype. However, one place where I do think they expanded the map is CO, where I'm more pessimistic than most here (although I still see Udall winning). Landrieu now looks more likely to lose than to win, especially because of the runoff. I still think McConnell will lose narrowly. Georgia is still something of a question mark, but I anticipate it will probably end up going Lean R. Iowa could go toss up, but Ernst's post primary bounce isn't enough to convince me...yet.

IceSpear, that was very insightful. This is one of the more accurate maps in my view. I'll add that the National Journal argues that all three competitive Democrat-held Senate seats in the South will swing one way or the other together, which might be something to keep in mind once November is closer. Personally, I'm only ranking LA as a Republican pick-up because I don't think Landrieu has what it takes to win a runoff in this political climate (I don't think that any candidate can pass 50% in LA on November 4th), but I'm leaving AR and NC as Democratic holds, because it seems like Pryor is in a uniquely strong position, and Tillis is a weak candidate compared to Hagan.

Thanks! I think all three races have their own dynamic. Landrieu and Pryor would be in similar positions if it wasn't for the jungle primary in LA, but the presence of it puts her in more danger than he is. It's not a fait accompli that turnout will go down in the primary (see 2002 in Louisiana, and more recently Cochran's victory a few days ago) but the odds would be against her. I'm still iffy on Pryor. I never wrote him off even back when everyone assumed he'd be Blanche Lincoln 2.0, and I'm not getting carried away either now that everyone assumes he's the favorite because of a couple favorable polls. The North Carolina race is a bit different due to the fact that Pryor and Landrieu are relying on their personal brand to carry them through, whereas Hagan is only still in the race because NC is a swingish (though GOP tilted) state. I think the weak field there ultimately gave her a decent path to victory, but she could easily go down even with a modestly more Republican climate than we're in now.
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Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. Given her name recognition and the fact that she's admittedly done a good enough job as SoS, this current frontrunner status is natural.

If she's the nominee, I'd probably vote for her, and she'd probably be at least an okay president.
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« Reply #108 on: July 23, 2014, 06:32:43 pm »
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I'll update these after each big primary date from now on. After a state's candidates for Senate are determined I will add percentages and bold the winner.

Alabama: Jeff Sessions - 100%. Safe R
Alaska: Dan Sullivan - Toss-Up
Arkansas: Tom Cotton - 50%, Mark Pryor - 47%. Toss-Up
Colorado: Mark Udall - 50%, Cory Gardner - 48%. Lean D
Delaware: Chris Coons - Safe D
*Georgia: David Perdue - 54%, Michelle Nunn - 46%. Lean R
Hawaii (S): Brian Schatz - Safe D
Idaho: Jim Risch - 65%, Nels Mitchell - 33%. Safe R
Illinois: Dick Durbin - 58%, Jim Oberweis - 40%. Safe D
Iowa: Bruce Braley - 51%, Joni Ernst, 48%. Lean D
Kansas: Pat Robertson - Safe R
Kentucky: Mitch McConnell - 51%, Alison L. Grimes - 48%. Lean R
*Louisiana: Bill Cassidy - 52%, Mary Landrieu - 48%. Toss-Up
Maine: Susan Collins - 65%, Shenna Bellows - 33%. Safe R
Massachusetts: Ed Markey - Safe D
Michigan: Gary Peters - Lean D
Minnesota: Al Franken - Safe D
Mississippi: Thad Cochran - 59%, Travis Childers - 39%. Safe R
Montana: Steve Daines - 55%, John Walsh - 43%. Likely R
Nebraska: Ben Sasse - 60%, Dave Domina - 38%. Safe R
New Hampshire: Jeane Shaheen - Likely D
New Jersey: Cory Booker - 60%, Jeff Bell - 38%. Safe D
New Mexico: Tom Udall - 58%. Allen Weh - 41%. Safe D
North Carolina: Kay Hagan - 49%, Thom Tillis - 47%. Toss-Up
Oklahoma: James Inhofe - 62%, Matt Silverstein - 37%. Safe R
Oklahoma (S): James Lankford - Safe R
Oregon: Jeff Merkley - 56%, Monica Wehby - 41%. Safe D
Rhode Island: Jack Reed - Safe D
South Carolina: Lindsey Graham - 56%. Brad Hutto - 42%. Safe R
South Carolina (S): Tim Scott - 58%, Joyce Dickerson - 40%. Safe R
South Dakota: Mike Rounds - 56%, Rick Weiland - 39%. Safe R
Tennessee: Lamar Alexander - Safe R
Texas: John Cornyn - 58%, David Alameel - 40%. Safe R
Virginia: Mark Warner - 57%, Ed Gillespie - 40%. Safe D
West Virginia: Shelley M. Capito - 55%, Natalie Tennant - 44%. Likely R
Wyoming: Mike Enzi - Safe R

State bolded = pickup. My prediction - R+6
*Runoff predictions.

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2014 Governor Predictions
2014 Senate Prediction

Upcoming Primaries:

KS, MI, MO, and WA (8/5/14)
TN (8/7/14)
HI (8/9/14)
CT, MN, and WI (8/12/14)
AK and WY (8/19/14)
AZ, FL, and VT (8/26/14)

Upcoming Runoffs:

SD (8/12/14)
OK (8/26/14)
SPC
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« Reply #109 on: July 23, 2014, 07:07:33 pm »
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Alabama: Sessions
Alaska: Begich
As I've pointed out elsewhere, history of Republicans overperforming polls in Alaska appears to be more attributable to polling companies with spotty records than a genuine phenomenon. Unless Sullivan actually starts leading in non-Republican firms, I give the edge to the incumbent.
Arkansas: Pryor
Perhaps wishful thinking, but unless Cotton starts leading in non-Republican firms, I once again give the edge to the incumbent.
Colorado: Udall
See Alaska, but replace Republicans with Democrats. However, Udall and Gardner have both led numerous polls, making this call a bit more uncertain. While I could easily see this being a repeat of Wisconsin 2010, Udall has held the lead slightly more often, and thus I give him a statistically insignificant edge.
Delaware: Coons
Georgia: Perdue
Given that Romney won Georgia by 7 points, I find it hard to believe that Perdue could lose in a midterm year. Even if Perdue does manage to screw it up, the runoff gives him a bit more wiggle room than other bad candidates.
Hawaii: Schatz
Idaho: Risch
Illinois: Durbin
Iowa: Braley
Like Colorado, I have little faith in this call. However, Braley's slightly more frequent polling leads give him an insignificant edge.
Kansas: Roberts
Kentucky: McConnell
It would be nice if nonpartisan pollsters were willing to look at this race, but in order to be consistent with my other ratings, I should give the advantage to the incumbent unless Grimes consistently leads in nonpartisan polls (right now it's essentially a tie.)
Louisiana: Landrieu
While she is likely doomed if it gets to be a runoff, polls usually have given her a majority in the jungle primary, meaning there is a good chance that Cassidy won't have the runoff to his advantage.
Maine: Collins
Massachusetts: Markey
Michigan: Peters
Minnesota: Franken
Mississippi: Cochran
Montana: Daines
While Walsh has tightened the race, Daines still has a clear advantage.
Nebraska: Sasse
New Hampshire: Shaheen
New Jersey: Booker
New Mexico: Udall
North Carolina: Hagan
While I suspect that PPP might be inflating Hagan's chances here, the fact that other pollsters have corroborated this gives Hagan a clear advantage.
Oklahoma: Inhofe
Oklahoma: Lankford
Oregon: Merkley
Rhode Island: Reed
South Carolina: Graham
It would be hackishness on the highest level if I were to seriously propose that Ravenel could endanger Graham's reelection.
South Carolina: Scott
South Dakota: Rounds
Tennessee: Alexander
Texas: Cornyn
Virginia: Warner
West Virginia: Capito
Wyoming: Enzi

Most likely to flip:
1. South Dakota
2. West Virginia

3. Montana


4. Kentucky
5. Louisiana
6. Iowa
7. Arkansas
8. Colorado
9. Georgia
10. Alaska
11. North Carolina
« Last Edit: July 23, 2014, 07:11:19 pm by SPC »Logged


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« Reply #110 on: July 24, 2014, 02:37:10 pm »
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Alabama: Jeff Sessions (R) SAFE R
Alaska: Mark Begich (D) def. Dan Sullivan (R) LEAN D
Arkansas: Tom Cotton (R) def. Mark Pryor (D) PURE TOSSUP
Colorado: Mark Udall (D) def. Cory Gardner (R) LEAN D
Delaware: Chris Coons (D) def.  Kevon Wade (D) SAFE D

Georgia: David Perdue (R) def. Michelle Nunn (D) LEAN R
Hawaii special: Brian Schatz (D) def. Campbell Cavaso (R) SAFE D
Idaho: Jim Risch (R) def. Nels Mitchell (D) SAFE R
Illinois: Dick Durbin (D) def. Jim Oberweis (R) SAFE D
Iowa: Bruce Baley (D) def. Joni Ernst (R) LEAN D

Kansas: Pat Roberts (R) def. Chad Taylor (D) SAFE R
Kentucky: Mitch McConnell (R) def. Allison Lundergan Grimes (D)  LEAN R
Louisiana: Bill Cassidy (R) def. Mary Landrieau (D) LEAN R
Maine: Susan Collins (R) def. Shenna Bellows (D) SAFE R

Massachusetts: Ed Markey (D) def. Frank Addivinola (R) SAFE D
Michigan: Gary Peters (D) def. Terri Lynn Land (R) LIKELY D
Minnesota: Al Franken (D) def. Julianne Ortman SAFE D (R)

Mississippi: Thad Cochran (R) def. Travis Childers (D) SAFE R
Montana: Steve Daines (R) def. John Walsh (D) LIKELY R
Nebraska: Ben Sasse (R) def. Dave Domina (D) SAFE R

New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaheen (D) def. Scott Brown (R) SAFE D
New Jersey: Cory Booker (D) def. Murray Sabrin (R) SAFE D
New Mexico: Tom Udall (D) def. Dave Clements (R) SAFE D
North Carolina: Kay Hagan (D) def. Thom Tillis TOSSUP/TILT D

Oklahoma: Jim Inhofe (R) def. Matt Silverstein (D) SAFE R
Oklahoma special: James Lankford (R) def. Constance Johnson (D) SAFE R

Oregon: Jeff Merkley (D) def. Monica Wehby (R) SAFE D
Rhode Island: Jack Reed (D) def. Raymond McKay (R) SAFE D
South Carolina: Lindsey Graham (R) def. Brad Hutty (D) SAFE R
South Carolina special: Tim Scott (R) def. Joyce Dickerson (D) SAFE R
South Dakota: Mike Rounds (R) def. Rick Weiland (D) and Larry Pressler (I) LIKELY R
Tennessee: Lamar Alexander (R) def. Terry Adams (D) SAFE R
Texas: John Cornyn (R) def. Dabid Alameel (D) SAFE R

Virginia: Mark Warner (D) def. Ed Gillespie (R) SAFE D
West Virginia: Shelley Moore Capito (R) def Natalie Tennent (D) LEAN R
Wyoming: Mike Enzi (R) def. Charlie Hardy (D) SAFE R


For a net gain of R+5
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« Reply #111 on: July 27, 2014, 07:57:20 am »
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Pryor def Cotton
ALG def McConnell
Pressler def Weiland def Rounds
Hagen def Tillis
Roberts is upset in KS

50-47-3 Dem majority
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« Reply #112 on: July 27, 2014, 02:07:34 pm »
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For now, I will have to agree with SSWE's prediction:

+5 R pickup

West Virginia, South Dakota, and Montana switch from D to R.

Louisiana goes R--Mary Landrieu will lead on Election Day but won't make it past 50 percent and will lose in the runoff.  Same for Michelle Nunn here in Georgia.  The Repubs got the strongest candidate in David Perdue.

Arkansas goes R as well--Cotton will squeeze out a win if the election were held today.


Dems will hold in Alaska (Begich is running a very good race), North Carolina, Iowa, and Colorado.  Will fall short in Kentucky--Grimes should keep it interesting, though.



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