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June 26, 2016, 01:32:33 am
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Author Topic: 2016 Presidential Predictions (General)  (Read 26443 times)
skoods
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« Reply #25 on: September 26, 2015, 01:36:58 pm »
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^How on earth does this happen?

My prediction is still the same as it was a couple of months ago: A very close election, with PA/VA/NH being the states to watch (NH only if Clinton is the nominee). Those are all must-win states for Democrats.

Look at his username. That's how it happens.
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Go Secretary of State Clinton
Da-Jon
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« Reply #26 on: September 27, 2015, 08:04:12 am »
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Jeb was looking like a lock for Prez,  but he faded. Now it looks as though Clinton can definitely seal the deal with the senate and Prez with a convincing victory over Trump. And Pa isnt lean GOP.
« Last Edit: September 27, 2015, 08:08:49 am by OC »Logged
Mr. Illini
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« Reply #27 on: October 04, 2015, 03:26:42 pm »
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Walker/Rubio: 288 EV, 50%

Oops
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big bad fab
filliatre
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« Reply #28 on: November 12, 2015, 10:55:54 am »
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A pity Carson and Christie have the same colours in the 2016 Rep Primary prediction.
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Enjoy the French elections !
Enjoy polling analysis !
Enjoy my tracker !

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« Reply #29 on: November 12, 2015, 01:34:34 pm »
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How do you make a prediction and get it added?

Mine is 299-239 R, 49-49% R.
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« Reply #30 on: January 29, 2016, 08:32:10 pm »
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Make America D@nK again m9s!!!1 Trump 2016!!!1
Da-Jon
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« Reply #31 on: January 31, 2016, 08:22:40 am »
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Co 40-50% D
FL 50-50% R
Pa 50-50% D
NH tossup to Lean D

Clinton-Castro 272-266 v Trump
51/49
« Last Edit: January 31, 2016, 08:42:38 am by OC »Logged
ExtremeRepublican
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« Reply #32 on: January 31, 2016, 09:11:27 pm »
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Co 40-50% D
FL 50-50% R
Pa 50-50% D
NH tossup to Lean D

Clinton-Castro 272-266 v Trump
51/49

OC, does that hold if Rubio or Cruz is the nominee?
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Political Matrix Score:
Economic: +9.81
Social: +9.04

Political Compass Score:
Economic: +9.79 (Right)
Social: +3.71 (Authoritarian)
Foreign Policy: +7.29 (Neo-Con)
Cultural: +7.81 (Conservative)
Meclazine
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« Reply #33 on: February 28, 2016, 03:05:11 am »
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Nice one. California and New York look like real killers for Trump.

Not a lot of room left when you start 84 points down.
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Harry Hayfield
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« Reply #34 on: April 04, 2016, 11:20:40 am »
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Apologies for missing North Dakota's GOP primary over the weekend. My grandmother, who has just had a hip operation, was suffering from a low sodium count (and may have been ever since she was discharged) and therefore I have been more concerned about her. I am pleased to report that she is now recovering and wanted to explain the lack of a prediction for that event.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #35 on: May 04, 2016, 04:10:35 pm »
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Clinton vs Trump Initial Prognostication

Safe D: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, ME-01, MD, MA, NJ, NM, NY, OR, RI, VT, WA
Likely D: MI, MN, NV, WI
Lean D: CO, FL, IA, ME-02, NH, PA, VA
Toss-Up: NE-02, OH
Lean R: AZ, NC
Likely R: GA, IN, AK, MO, MT
Safe R: AL, AR, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, NE, NE-01, NE-03, ND, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, WV, WY

Safe D: 190 EVs
Likely D: 42 EVs
Lean D: 82 EVs
Toss-Up: 19 EVs
Lean R: 26 EVs
Likely R: 43 EVs
Safe R: 136 EVs

Democratic: 314 EVs
Toss-Up: 19 EVs
Republican: 205 EVs

Rating: Lean D (bellwether: PA, CO, or IA)

Most likely result in my view is a repeat of 2012, with North Carolina going narrowly to Trump and Ohio narrowly to Clinton. Most likely popular vote is a 5-8 point win for Clinton. I am perfectly flexible to changing ratings with new polling data, shifts in the race, or worldwide/nationwide events.

Atlas Prediction

May 31st Update

Likely D --> Lean D: ME-02, NH
Toss-Up --> Lean R: NC
Lean R --> Likely R: MO
Likely R --> Safe R: TX, UT

Temporarily, the race has moved in more favorable conditions for Trump, with a slight Clinton advantage still. My atlas prediction remains the same, but a Hillary win of 3-6% is more likely now with the current conditions.
« Last Edit: May 31, 2016, 10:26:00 pm by ElectionsGuy »Logged

Clinton vs Trump Ratings

2016 Endorsements

President/Vice President: Gary Johnson/William Weld
US Senate:
Primary - Ron Johnson
General - Phil Anderson
US House (WI-01):
Primary - Paul Ryan
General - Uncommitted (Likely L)
LLR
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« Reply #36 on: May 05, 2016, 06:23:17 am »
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Clinton vs. Trump



Dems: 345
Pubs: 138
Tossup: 55

Dems:
Strong: 195
Likely: 41
Lean: 109

Tossup: 55

Pubs:
Lean: 16
Likely: 6
Strong: 116

Overall: Likely D
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Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #37 on: June 02, 2016, 12:29:05 am »
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With the latest poll showing TRUMP at 32% among Hispanics nationally, I now add Florida to his arsenal and therefore believe he would win if the election was held today.


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Username change is long-term.

#reelectKirk

2016 House Rating: Strongly Leaning Republican
2016 Senate: http://tinyurl.com/oc3yugb
(6/16 Change - Washington to Safe D, Iowa to Likely R)
2016 Governor: http://tinyurl.com/h8ghczb
2016 President: http://tinyurl.com/zarao64


#ConfirmGarland


Just say it, Obama. "ISIS is radical islamic terrorism"
Dwarven Dragon
Wulfric
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« Reply #38 on: June 07, 2016, 04:01:32 pm »
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New maps following Trump racism comment. Big leg up for Clinton.



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#reelectKirk

2016 House Rating: Strongly Leaning Republican
2016 Senate: http://tinyurl.com/oc3yugb
(6/16 Change - Washington to Safe D, Iowa to Likely R)
2016 Governor: http://tinyurl.com/h8ghczb
2016 President: http://tinyurl.com/zarao64


#ConfirmGarland


Just say it, Obama. "ISIS is radical islamic terrorism"
Speaker Washington
Abraham Washington
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« Reply #39 on: June 18, 2016, 12:30:46 pm »
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TRUMP:

209 EV

SAFE: 108 EV

LIKELY: 50 EV

LEAN: 51 EV



CLINTON:

207 EV

SAFE: 38 EV

LIKELY: 138 EV

LEAN: 31 EV


TOSSUP:

122 EV

________________________________________________________

PREDICTION AS OF JUNE 18, 2016



Donald Trump - 288 EV (51%)
Hillary Clinton - 250 EV (47%)



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http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=236331.msg5111737#new

In "Waltzing Matilda", Bill Shorten has been elected Australia's new Prime Minister in a shock victory for his Labor party. What will be the fate of the land down under?
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