Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
December 08, 2016, 03:11:43 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Cast your Ballot in the 2016 Mock Election

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  Election Predictions (Moderator: muon2)
| | |-+  2016 Senate Predictions & Analysis
« previous next »
Pages: 1 [2] Print
Author Topic: 2016 Senate Predictions & Analysis  (Read 18527 times)
Ebsy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6138
United States


View Profile
« Reply #25 on: May 24, 2015, 12:53:44 am »
Ignore


Democrats - 50
Republicans - 48
Independents - 2

Dems gain back many seats they lost, including gaining a few in Florida and Arizona, and come closer in Indiana than Pennsylvania.

2017 Freshman Senate Class
Kamala Harris (D-CA)
Catherine Cortez-Matso (D-NV)
Ann Kirkpatrick (D-AZ)
Russ Feingold (D-WI)
Tammy Baldwin (D-IL)
Eric Holcombe (R-IN)
Ted Strickland (D-OH)
Maggie Hassan (D-NH)
Patrick Murphy (D-FL)


Number of women Senators goes up by three Tongue
I like your prediction. I certainly hope it happens.
Logged

Da-Jon
olawakandi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 15712
United States


View Profile
« Reply #26 on: May 24, 2015, 09:34:19 am »
Ignore

Governor Strickland will be great!!!!

New senate Class after Clinton-Castro beats Walker 272-266
Ca Harris; Feinstein Dem.   Harris win 56-44
FL Murphy; Nelson Dem.     Murphy wins 51-49
IL Duckworth; Durbin Dem. Duckworth win 52-47
IN Stutzman; Donnelly Split R's win 60-40
MD Edwards; Cardin Dem.  
NV CCM; Heller Split.   CCM win 51-49
Pa Sestak; Casey Dem Sestak 51-49
WI Feingold; Baldwin Dem feingold 52-48

NH Hassan; Shaheen if she so choses to run

New House

201-234 R controlled
51D-50R Senate

« Last Edit: May 24, 2015, 08:37:26 pm by OC »Logged
Dwarven Dragon
Wulfric
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12092
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.29, S: 0.70

P P P
View Profile
« Reply #27 on: May 25, 2015, 01:28:19 am »
Ignore



Republicans: 51
Democrats: 47
Toss-Ups: 2

Democrats would win both Toss-Ups if the election was held today, for a 51-49 Republican Majority


Freshman Senate Class

Kamala Harris (D-CA)
Catherine Cortez-Masto (D-NV)
Tammy Duckworth (D-IL)
Russ Feingold (D-WI)
Patrick Murphy (D-FL)
Chris VanHollen (D-MD)

John Fleming (R-LA) (yeah, yeah, he'll have part of Vitter's term, but whatever.)
Marlin Stutzman (R-IN)
(If Rand Paul is the Presidential Nominee:) Andy Barr (R-KY)
Logged

We must keep the electoral college. It is the best system for a large country like ours:



Da-Jon
olawakandi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 15712
United States


View Profile
« Reply #28 on: May 25, 2015, 03:30:31 am »
Ignore

Battle of control; I think the fourth seat will go either through NH or Pa. Which is a plausability. Should Hassan make up her mind.
Logged
Da-Jon
olawakandi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 15712
United States


View Profile
« Reply #29 on: May 29, 2015, 07:54:56 am »
Ignore

I think Pa needs to go back to tossup on Sabato crystal ball.
Logged
muon2
Moderator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11955


View Profile
« Reply #30 on: October 24, 2016, 10:35:21 am »

Stickied as the election approaches.
Logged

ElectionsGuy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 15271
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.35, S: -7.30

View Profile
« Reply #31 on: October 29, 2016, 11:45:52 pm »
Ignore

Ratings



Republican: 30
Safe R: 13
Likely R: 3
Lean R: 1
Toss-Up: 6  <-- Overall
Lean D: 0
Likely D: 2
Safe D: 9
Democratic: 36

Prediction



Democrats: 51
Republicans: 49

Exact Percentage Predictions
Logged
ElectionsGuy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 15271
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.35, S: -7.30

View Profile
« Reply #32 on: November 08, 2016, 12:21:39 am »
Ignore

Final Predictions

Here

Final Ratings



R + Safe R: 45
Likely R: 1
Lean R: 1
Toss-Up: 6
Lean D: 1
Likely D: 1
D + Safe D: 45
Logged
ElectionsGuy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 15271
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.35, S: -7.30

View Profile
« Reply #33 on: November 25, 2016, 01:57:38 am »
Ignore

How off was I? Ex: D+2 means 2 points more Democratic in margin than actual result.

AL: Even
AK: I was way off, Metcalfe came in 4th!
AZ: D+4
AR: R+1
CA: Even
CO: D+5
CT: R+6
FL: D+4
GA: D+1
HI: R+9
ID: D+5
IL: R+5
IN: D+8
IA: D+12 (ouch)
KS: D+4
KY: R+4
MD: Even
MO: D+2
NV: Even
NH: D+2
NY: R+4
NC: D+3
ND: D+27! (lol)
OH: D+7
OK: D+7
OR: R+2
PA: D+3
SC: D+7
SD: D+18! (what is it with the Dakotas?)
UT: D+4
VT: D+12
WA: R+2
WI: D+7

Overall, better than the presidential race, but still awful.
Logged
LLR
LongLiveRock
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4435
Israel


Political Matrix
E: -6.39, S: -2.00

P P P

View Profile WWW
« Reply #34 on: November 25, 2016, 08:05:59 am »
Ignore

To be fair, the oil boom caused a rapid conservative shift in the Dakotas that wasn't easy to predict and led to huge landslide margins...
Logged

Pages: 1 [2] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines