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July 28, 2016, 07:22:34 am
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Author Topic: 2016 Presidential Predictions (General)  (Read 29992 times)
skoods
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« Reply #25 on: September 26, 2015, 01:36:58 pm »
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^How on earth does this happen?

My prediction is still the same as it was a couple of months ago: A very close election, with PA/VA/NH being the states to watch (NH only if Clinton is the nominee). Those are all must-win states for Democrats.

Look at his username. That's how it happens.
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Go Secretary of State Clinton
Da-Jon
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« Reply #26 on: September 27, 2015, 08:04:12 am »
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Jeb was looking like a lock for Prez,  but he faded. Now it looks as though Clinton can definitely seal the deal with the senate and Prez with a convincing victory over Trump. And Pa isnt lean GOP.
« Last Edit: September 27, 2015, 08:08:49 am by OC »Logged
Mr. Illini
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« Reply #27 on: October 04, 2015, 03:26:42 pm »
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Walker/Rubio: 288 EV, 50%

Oops
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big bad fab
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« Reply #28 on: November 12, 2015, 10:55:54 am »
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A pity Carson and Christie have the same colours in the 2016 Rep Primary prediction.
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Enjoy the French elections !
Enjoy polling analysis !
Enjoy my tracker !

http://sondages2017.wordpress.com/
Reagan Revolutionary
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« Reply #29 on: November 12, 2015, 01:34:34 pm »
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How do you make a prediction and get it added?

Mine is 299-239 R, 49-49% R.
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Keep Cool with Coolidge 1924
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« Reply #30 on: January 29, 2016, 08:32:10 pm »
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Da-Jon
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« Reply #31 on: January 31, 2016, 08:22:40 am »
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Co 40-50% D
FL 50-50% R
Pa 50-50% D
NH tossup to Lean D

Clinton-Castro 272-266 v Trump
51/49
« Last Edit: January 31, 2016, 08:42:38 am by OC »Logged
ExtremeRepublican
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« Reply #32 on: January 31, 2016, 09:11:27 pm »
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Co 40-50% D
FL 50-50% R
Pa 50-50% D
NH tossup to Lean D

Clinton-Castro 272-266 v Trump
51/49

OC, does that hold if Rubio or Cruz is the nominee?
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Political Matrix Score:
Economic: +9.81
Social: +9.04

Political Compass Score:
Economic: +9.79 (Right)
Social: +3.71 (Authoritarian)
Foreign Policy: +7.29 (Neo-Con)
Cultural: +7.81 (Conservative)
Meclazine
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« Reply #33 on: February 28, 2016, 03:05:11 am »
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Nice one. California and New York look like real killers for Trump.

Not a lot of room left when you start 84 points down.
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« Reply #34 on: April 04, 2016, 11:20:40 am »
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Apologies for missing North Dakota's GOP primary over the weekend. My grandmother, who has just had a hip operation, was suffering from a low sodium count (and may have been ever since she was discharged) and therefore I have been more concerned about her. I am pleased to report that she is now recovering and wanted to explain the lack of a prediction for that event.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #35 on: May 04, 2016, 04:10:35 pm »
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Clinton vs Trump Initial Prognostication

Safe D: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, ME-01, MD, MA, NJ, NM, NY, OR, RI, VT, WA
Likely D: MI, MN, NV, WI
Lean D: CO, FL, IA, ME-02, NH, PA, VA
Toss-Up: NE-02, NC, OH
Lean R: AZ
Likely R: GA, IN, AK, MO, MT, UT
Safe R: AL, AR, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, NE, NE-01, NE-03, ND, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, WV, WY

Safe D: 190 EVs
Likely D: 42 EVs
Lean D: 82 EVs
Toss-Up: 34 EVs
Lean R: 11 EVs
Likely R: 49 EVs
Safe R: 130 EVs

Democratic: 314 EVs
Toss-Up: 34 EVs
Republican: 190 EVs

Overall Vote Prediction

Clinton: 51%
Trump: 46%
Johnson: 2%
Other: 1%

Overall Rating: Lean D (bellwether: PA, CO, or IA)

Most likely result in my view is a repeat of 2012, with North Carolina going narrowly to Trump and Ohio narrowly to Clinton. I am perfectly flexible to changing ratings with new polling data, shifts in the race, or worldwide/nationwide events.

Atlas Prediction

May 31st Update

Likely D --> Lean D: ME-02, NH
Toss-Up --> Lean R: NC
Lean R --> Likely R: MO
Likely R --> Safe R: TX, UT

Temporarily, the race has moved in more favorable conditions for Trump, with a slight Clinton advantage still. My atlas prediction remains the same, but a Hillary win of 3-6% is more likely now with the current conditions.

July 5th Update


Lean R --> Toss-Up: NC
Safe R --> Likely R: UT

Added Overall Vote Prediction
« Last Edit: July 05, 2016, 04:22:16 pm by ElectionsGuy »Logged

Clinton vs Trump Ratings

2016 Endorsements

President/Vice President: Gary Johnson/William Weld
US Senate:
Primary - Ron Johnson
General - Phil Anderson
US House (WI-01):
Primary - Paul Ryan
General - Uncommitted (Likely L)
Lars Løkke Rasmussen
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« Reply #36 on: May 05, 2016, 06:23:17 am »
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Clinton vs. Trump



Dems: 345
Pubs: 138
Tossup: 55

Dems:
Strong: 195
Likely: 41
Lean: 109

Tossup: 55

Pubs:
Lean: 16
Likely: 6
Strong: 116

Overall: Likely D
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Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #37 on: June 02, 2016, 12:29:05 am »
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With the latest poll showing TRUMP at 32% among Hispanics nationally, I now add Florida to his arsenal and therefore believe he would win if the election was held today.


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#reelectKirk

2016 House Rating: Strongly Leaning Republican
2016 Senate: http://tinyurl.com/oc3yugb
(7/23 Change - Indiana to Lean D, Missouri to Lean R)
2016 Governor: http://tinyurl.com/h8ghczb
2016 President: http://tinyurl.com/zarao64


#ConfirmGarland


Just say it, Obama. "ISIS is radical islamic terrorism"
Dwarven Dragon
Wulfric
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« Reply #38 on: June 07, 2016, 04:01:32 pm »
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New maps following Trump racism comment. Big leg up for Clinton.



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#reelectKirk

2016 House Rating: Strongly Leaning Republican
2016 Senate: http://tinyurl.com/oc3yugb
(7/23 Change - Indiana to Lean D, Missouri to Lean R)
2016 Governor: http://tinyurl.com/h8ghczb
2016 President: http://tinyurl.com/zarao64


#ConfirmGarland


Just say it, Obama. "ISIS is radical islamic terrorism"
President Washington
Abraham Washington
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« Reply #39 on: June 18, 2016, 12:30:46 pm »
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TRUMP:

209 EV

SAFE: 108 EV

LIKELY: 50 EV

LEAN: 51 EV



CLINTON:

207 EV

SAFE: 38 EV

LIKELY: 138 EV

LEAN: 31 EV


TOSSUP:

122 EV

________________________________________________________

PREDICTION AS OF JUNE 18, 2016



Donald Trump - 288 EV (51%)
Hillary Clinton - 250 EV (47%)



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Spark498
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« Reply #40 on: July 05, 2016, 10:12:54 pm »
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State Ratings

Clinton vs Trump

Safe D: CA, WA, NM, HI, NY, NJ, MA, NJ, MD, DE, VT, CT, RI, ME, VA
Likely D: MN, WI, CO
Lean D: MI, OR
Toss-Up: PA
Lean R: OH, NC, FL, ME-02, IA, NH, NV
Likely R: AZ, UT, GA, MO, NE-02
Safe R: AK, ID, MT, WY, ND, SD, KS, OK, TX, LA, AR, MS, AL, TN, KY, WV, IN, SC

Safe D: 206 EVs
Likely D: 19 EVs
Lean D: 23 EVs
Toss-Up: 20 EVs
Lean R: 79 EVs
Likely R: 27 EVs
Safe R: 164 EVs



Democratic: 248 EVs
Republican: 270 EVs
Toss-Up: 20 EVs

Popular Vote Prediction

Trump: 49.33%
Clinton: 48.44%
Johnson: 2.20%
Other: 0.3%

Overall Rating: Toss-up (bellwether: PA or IA)

Update 7/9- New Ratings

VA = Likely D --> Lean D
NV = Lean D --> Toss-up

ME-02 = Lean D --> Toss=up

Update 7/11 - New Ratings

NV = Toss-up --> Lean D

Update 7/13 - New Ratings

AZ = Lean R --> Likely R
IA = Toss-up --> Lean R
PA = Toss-up --> Lean R
FL = Toss-up --> Lean R
CO = Toss-up --> Lean D

Update 7/18 - New Ratings

IA = Lean R --> Toss-up
PA = Lean R --> Toss-up
NH = Toss-up --> Lean D
OH = Toss-up --> Lean R


Update 7/22 - New Ratings

IA = Toss-up --> Lean R
ME-02 = Toss-up --> Lean R
VA = Lean D --> Likely D


Update 7/26 - New Ratings

NH = Lean D --> Toss-up
NV = Lean D --> Toss-up
VA = Likely D --> Safe D
OR = Safe D --> Likely D

Update 7/27 - New Ratings

NH = Toss-up --> Lean R
OR = Likely D --> Lean D
« Last Edit: July 27, 2016, 10:56:09 pm by Spark498 »Logged





Political Spectrum Score:
Economic: +1.47
Social: 0.14 (Libertarian)
Foreign Policy: 4.52 (Neo-Con)
Cultural: 5.91 (Conservative)
Environmental: -7.38 (Eco-Socialist)
Dwarven Dragon
Wulfric
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« Reply #41 on: July 14, 2016, 11:29:12 pm »
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Username change is long-term.

#reelectKirk

2016 House Rating: Strongly Leaning Republican
2016 Senate: http://tinyurl.com/oc3yugb
(7/23 Change - Indiana to Lean D, Missouri to Lean R)
2016 Governor: http://tinyurl.com/h8ghczb
2016 President: http://tinyurl.com/zarao64


#ConfirmGarland


Just say it, Obama. "ISIS is radical islamic terrorism"
Da-Jon
olawakandi
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« Reply #42 on: July 15, 2016, 02:37:42 pm »
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PA will vote D
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Clay
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« Reply #43 on: July 17, 2016, 10:29:25 am »
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Clinton: 200
Trump: 142
Toss-up: 196




Clinton: 358
Trump: 180
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Dwarven Dragon
Wulfric
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« Reply #44 on: July 17, 2016, 10:51:59 pm »
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Clinton: 200
Trump: 142
Toss-up: 196

This is not a serious map. Indiana a Toss-Up?
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Username change is long-term.

#reelectKirk

2016 House Rating: Strongly Leaning Republican
2016 Senate: http://tinyurl.com/oc3yugb
(7/23 Change - Indiana to Lean D, Missouri to Lean R)
2016 Governor: http://tinyurl.com/h8ghczb
2016 President: http://tinyurl.com/zarao64


#ConfirmGarland


Just say it, Obama. "ISIS is radical islamic terrorism"
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