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Author Topic: 2014 Gubernatorial Predictions  (Read 67790 times)
OC
olawakandi
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« Reply #75 on: July 13, 2014, 07:44:23 am »
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Dem IL, Pa, RI and ME

Tossup FL, MI, CO and ARK
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GPORTER
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« Reply #76 on: August 09, 2014, 09:25:01 am »
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No net change; Democrats gain Pennsylvania and Rhode Island and Florida while simultaneously Republicans pick up Illinois and Hawaii and Arkansas.
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http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=195483.new#new
the birth of modern america & onward election Former Vice President Blanche Bruce defeats incumbent President Grover Cleveland in 1904. In an age of unpredictable election outcomes Bruce finds himself reelected in 1908 against an opponent whose name escapes me at the moment. Blanche Bruce served as Vice President under Frederick Douglas whom Cleveland defeated in 1900. His Vice President runs to replace Bruce in 1912.
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olawakandi
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« Reply #77 on: August 10, 2014, 08:47:09 am »
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People are mad about Quinn's performance. But, it is also Obama's homestate.

NM and MI as well as FL should be on the closely watched list. But IL will be close for Quinn once Cook comes in.
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FreedomHawk
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« Reply #78 on: August 10, 2014, 09:28:16 am »
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No net change; Democrats gain Pennsylvania and Rhode Island and Florida while simultaneously Republicans pick up Illinois and Hawaii and Arkansas.

Does nobody know that Lincoln switched officially to Democrat? And add on a Republican win in CT.
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Since I don't feel like linking and stuff
PM Economic: 1.38
PM Social: -4.77
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« Reply #79 on: August 10, 2014, 11:45:39 pm »
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Update
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I see your point, and maybe we're debating over semantics, but the fact that about 1 million children are functionally homeless to me is a crisis.
OC
olawakandi
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« Reply #80 on: August 11, 2014, 09:18:55 am »
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Dems win WI, NM and FL as well as Pa and ME

R's win ARK, CT or HI

3-4 seat net D gain
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GPORTER
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« Reply #81 on: August 13, 2014, 09:39:29 am »
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Update
Election night 2014 we may be well be sitting back & watching both Kansas governor & senate go Democrat. That means watch Iowa Senate & cross our fingers for a close Virginia Senate election for Senate & see North Carolina senate become like New York governor '94. It is possible both Kansas Senate & Governor go Democrat & Republicans control the Senate.
« Last Edit: August 15, 2014, 09:13:33 am by GPORTER »Logged

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=195483.new#new
the birth of modern america & onward election Former Vice President Blanche Bruce defeats incumbent President Grover Cleveland in 1904. In an age of unpredictable election outcomes Bruce finds himself reelected in 1908 against an opponent whose name escapes me at the moment. Blanche Bruce served as Vice President under Frederick Douglas whom Cleveland defeated in 1900. His Vice President runs to replace Bruce in 1912.
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« Reply #82 on: August 13, 2014, 06:10:39 pm »
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Update
Election night 2014 we may be well be sitting back & watching both Kansas governor & senate go Democrat. That means watch Iowa Senate & cross our fingers for a close VirginiPrereading a textbook chapter is an active learning strategy that can improve the “communication” between the textbook author and the student. Through prereading, the student develops a mental outline for the entire chapter. This outline is the framework whereby concepts new to the student can be readily learned during more thorough chapter reading or classroom lecture. Prereading allows the student to develop a realistic study plan by providing insight into the length and level of difficulty of the chapter.a election for Senate & see North Carolina senate become like New York governor '94. It is possible both Kansas Senate & Governor go Democrat & Republicans control the Senate.

Interesting thoughts. I definitely agree with the textbook part.
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I see your point, and maybe we're debating over semantics, but the fact that about 1 million children are functionally homeless to me is a crisis.
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« Reply #83 on: August 15, 2014, 09:14:59 am »
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Update
Election night 2014 we may be well be sitting back & watching both Kansas governor & senate go Democrat. That means watch Iowa Senate & cross our fingers for a close VirginiPrereading a textbook chapter is an active learning strategy that can improve the “communication” between the textbook author and the student. Through prereading, the student develops a mental outline for the entire chapter. This outline is the framework whereby concepts new to the student can be readily learned during more thorough chapter reading or classroom lecture. Prereading allows the student to develop a realistic study plan by providing insight into the length and level of difficulty of the chapter.a election for Senate & see North Carolina senate become like New York governor '94. It is possible both Kansas Senate & Governor go Democrat & Republicans control the Senate.

Interesting thoughts. I definitely agree with the textbook part.
Forgive me I don't know how that happened. I've got the post fixed now. I study education in school maybe I did some weird copy/paste thing w/o realizing it jk.
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http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=195483.new#new
the birth of modern america & onward election Former Vice President Blanche Bruce defeats incumbent President Grover Cleveland in 1904. In an age of unpredictable election outcomes Bruce finds himself reelected in 1908 against an opponent whose name escapes me at the moment. Blanche Bruce served as Vice President under Frederick Douglas whom Cleveland defeated in 1900. His Vice President runs to replace Bruce in 1912.
OC
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« Reply #84 on: September 01, 2014, 08:11:31 pm »
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AK Dem pickup
AR Ross def Hutchinson
FL Crist def Scott D pickup
IL Quinn def Rauner
ME Michaud def LePage D pickup
PA Wolf def Corbett D pickup
RI Raimondo wins
WI Burke  def Walker D pickup
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« Reply #85 on: September 01, 2014, 08:36:32 pm »
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AK Dem Indie pickup if Bill Walker and Mallot unify their tickets
AR Ross def Hutchinson
FL Crist def Scott D pickup
IL Quinn def Rauner
ME Michaud def LePage D pickup
PA Wolf def Corbett D pickup
RI Raimondo wins
WI Burke  def Walker D pickup
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« Reply #86 on: September 02, 2014, 10:19:16 am »
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I see your point, and maybe we're debating over semantics, but the fact that about 1 million children are functionally homeless to me is a crisis.
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« Reply #87 on: September 06, 2014, 10:09:56 pm »
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This is my exact map as well

EDIT: except Florida
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Basically with Hillary vs. the GOP field, you're picking between spending the summer living with the shrill aunt who isn't much fun at all or the uncle whose hand always gets a little too close to your privates whenever you're around him.  No matter how much fun he claims you're going to have reforming government together just you and him, the aunt has the edge.
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« Reply #88 on: September 12, 2014, 04:39:52 pm »
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Post-Primary Season Update:

Safe D: CA, MD, MN, NH, NY, OR, RI, VT
Likely D: HI, MA, PA
Lean D: CO
Toss-Up: CT, FL, IL, KS, ME, WI
Lean R: AK, AZ, AR, GA, MI
Likely R: IA, NM, OH, SC
Safe R: AL, ID, NE, NV, OK, SD, TN, TX, WY

Guesstimate for percent margins.

Alabama:

Bentley: 62%
Griffith: 38%

Alaska:

Parnell: 50%
Walker: 46%

Arizona:


Ducey: 51%

DuVal: 46%

Arkansas:

Hutchison: 53%
Ross: 46%

California:


Brown: 62%
Kashkari: 38%

Colorado:

Hickenlooper: 52%
Beauprez: 46%

Connecticut:

Foley: 50%
Malloy: 49%

Florida:

Scott: 49%
Crist: 47%

Georgia:

Deal: 51%
Carter: 47%

Hawaii:

Ige: 56%
Aiona: 43%

Idaho:

Otter: 61%
Balukoff: 36%

Illinois:


Rauner: 49%
Quinn: 48%

Iowa:

Branstad: 58%
Hatch: 40%

Kansas:


Brownback: 48%
Davis: 47%

Maine:


Michaud: 44%

LePage: 42%
Cutler: 14%

Maryland:


Brown: 60%
Hogan: 39%

Massachusetts:


Coakley: 54%
Baker: 44%

Michigan:


Snyder: 51%
Schauer: 47%

Minnesota:


Dayton: 56%
Johnson: 41%

Nebraska:


Ricketts: 57%
Hassebrook: 42%

Nevada:

Sandoval: 58%

Goodman: 39%

New Hampshire:

Hassan: 59%
Havenstein: 41%

New Mexico:


Martinez: 54%
King: 46%

New York:

Cuomo: 64%
Astorino: 34%

Ohio:

Kasich: 57%
FitzGerald: 42%

Oklahoma:

Fallin: 59%
Dorman: 40%

Oregon:

Kitzhaber: 57%
Richardson: 41%

Pennsylvania:

Wolf: 59%
Corbett: 40%

Rhode Island:


Raimondo: 61%
Fung: 37%

South Carolina:


Haley: 53%
Shaheen: 43%
Ervin: 9%

South Dakota:

Daugaard: 62%
Wismer: 37%

Tennessee:

Haslam: 65%
Brown: 34%

Texas:

Abbott: 56%

Davis: 42%

Vermont:


Shumlin: 63%
Milne: 34%

Wisconsin:

Walker: 50%
Burke: 49%

Wyoming:

Mead: 67%

Gosar: 31%

Profile Prediction (probably needs updating)

Net gain R+1. This result may seem republican-skewed due to the fact I'm predicting republicans hold on in many tight races (Florida, Wisconsin, Michigan, Kansas) and defeat incumbents (Illinois, Connecticut). Recent changes have been Minnesota from Likely D to Safe D, Alaska from Safe R to Lean R, and Wisconsin from Lean R to Toss-up. And changes in winners have been from Malloy to Foley in Connecticut. This is certainly SUBJECT TO CHANGE, I would actually be surprised if Republicans did this good in November. A realistic prediction is anywhere from R+3 to D+5. This is going to be one crazy year for governors races!
« Last Edit: September 14, 2014, 01:41:45 pm by ElectionsGuy »Logged

2014 Senate Prediction
2014 Governor Predictions

Endorsements:

WI-1: Paul Ryan
Gov/Lt. Gov: Scott Walker/Rebecca Kleefisch
AG: Tom Nelson
SoS: None
Treasurer: Matt Adamczyk
Ballot Measure: No
MW Rep Vega
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« Reply #89 on: September 28, 2014, 03:45:05 pm »
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Updated my map.
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The modern conservative is engaged in one of man's oldest exercises in moral philosophy; that is, the search for a superior moral justification for selfishness.

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« Reply #90 on: September 28, 2014, 04:13:22 pm »
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I see your point, and maybe we're debating over semantics, but the fact that about 1 million children are functionally homeless to me is a crisis.
OC
olawakandi
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« Reply #91 on: October 05, 2014, 09:23:00 am »
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Walker 34
Parnell 31

Hick 53
Beauprez 47


King 50.5
Martinez 50

Scott 50
Crist 48

Ige        50
Alona    49

Quinn 47
Rauner 45

Michaud 40
Lepage    36

Schauer 50
Snyder   48


Wolf      59
Corbett 38
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Illuminati Blood Drinker
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« Reply #92 on: October 09, 2014, 07:29:04 pm »
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Alabama: Robert Bentley (R) (Safe R)
Alaska: Bill Walker (I) (Tossup)
Arizona: Doug Ducey (R) (Lean R)
California: Jerry Brown (D) (Safe D)
Colorado: John Hickenlooper (D) (Tossup)
Connecticut: Tom Foley (R) (Tossup)
Florida: Rick Scott (Lean R)
Georgia: Nathan Deal (R) (Lean R)
Hawaii: David Ige (D) (Lean D)
Idaho: Butch Otter (R) (Safe R)
Illinois: Pat Quinn (D) (Tossup)
Iowa: Terry Brandstad (R) (Safe R)
Kansas: Paul Davis (D) (Tossup)
Maine: Michael Michaud (D) (Tossup [F[inks]ing Cutler])
Maryland: Anthony Brown (D) (Lean D)
Massachusetts: Martha Coakley (D) (Tossup)
Michigan: Mark Schauer (D) (Tossup)
Minnesota: Mark Dayton (D) (Safe D)
Nebraska: Pete Ricketts (R) (Safe R)
Nevada: Brian Sandoval (R) (Safe R)
New Hampshire: Maggie Hassan (D) (Safe D)
New Mexico: Susana Martinez (R) (Safe R)
New York: Andrew Cuomo (D) (Safe D)
Ohio: John Kasich (R) (Safe R)
Oklahoma: Mary Fallin (Safe R)
Oregon: John Kitzhaber (D) (Safe D)
Pennsylvania: Tom Wolf (D) (Safe D)
Rhode Island: Gina Raimondo (D) (Safe D)
South Carolina: Nikki Haley (R) (Lean R)
South Dakota: Dennis Daugaard (R) (Safe R)
Tennessee: Bill Haslam (R) (Safe R)
Texas: Greg Abbott (R) (Safe R)
Vermont: Peter Shumlin (D) (Safe D)
Wisconsin: Mary Burke (D) (Tossup)
Wyoming: Matt Mead (R) (Safe R)
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"The only thing we have to fear is fear itself."
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"Government by organized money is just as dangerous as Government by organized mob."
-Franklin D. Roosevelt

American. Rooseveltian. Progressive. Any questions?
ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #93 on: October 12, 2014, 03:40:42 pm »
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Update (2nd last before 11/4):

Safe D: CA, NH, NY, OR, PA, VT
Likely D: HI, MD, MN, RI
Lean D: CO, IL, MA
Toss-Up: AK, CT, FL, KS, ME
Lean R: AZ, AR, GA, MI, WI
Likely R: NM, SC
Safe R: AL, ID, IA, NE, NV, OH, OK, SD, TN, TX, WY

Changes since last update:

MD: Safe D --> Likely D
MN: Safe D --> Likely D
RI: Safe D --> Likely D
PA: Likely D --> Safe D
MA: Likely D --> Lean D
IL: Toss-Up --> Lean D
WI: Toss-Up --> Lean R
AK: Lean R --> Toss-Up
IA: Likely R --> Safe R
OH: Likely R --> Safe R

Profile Prediction

Guesstimate for margins of competitive races:

Alaska:

Parnell - 50%
Walker - 47%

Arizona:

Ducey - 51%
DuVal - 46%

Arkansas:

Hutchinson - 53%
Ross - 46%

Colorado:

Hickenlooper - 51%
Beauprez - 47%

Connecticut:

Malloy - 48%
Foley - 45%

Florida:

Crist - 47%
Scott - 46%

Georgia:

Deal - 50% (just enough to avoid runoff)
Carter - 47%

Illinois:

Quinn - 52%
Rauner - 46%

Kansas:

Davis - 49%
Brownback - 47%

Maine:

Michaud - 43%
LePage - 42%
Cutler - 15%

Massachusetts:

Coakley - 52%
Baker - 47%

Michigan:

Snyder - 50%
Schauer - 48%

Wisconsin:


Walker - 51%
Burke - 48%

For a net pickup of D+3
, with 27 Republican governors and 23 Democratic governors.
« Last Edit: October 12, 2014, 03:53:08 pm by ElectionsGuy »Logged

2014 Senate Prediction
2014 Governor Predictions

Endorsements:

WI-1: Paul Ryan
Gov/Lt. Gov: Scott Walker/Rebecca Kleefisch
AG: Tom Nelson
SoS: None
Treasurer: Matt Adamczyk
Ballot Measure: No
IDS Speaker Flo
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« Reply #94 on: October 18, 2014, 01:52:50 pm »
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FWIW, my most hackish map:



This was in October 2013
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I see your point, and maybe we're debating over semantics, but the fact that about 1 million children are functionally homeless to me is a crisis.
Antonio V
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« Reply #95 on: October 22, 2014, 05:01:46 am »
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Quote from: IRC
22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

It really is.



"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

Peppino, from the movie Baaria
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