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August 29, 2016, 02:54:07 pm
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|-+  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  Election Predictions (Moderator: muon2)
| | |-+  2016 Presidential Predictions (General)
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Author Topic: 2016 Presidential Predictions (General)  (Read 34313 times)
ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #50 on: August 09, 2016, 05:23:22 pm »
Ignore

I'm going to do a new one of these for all the changes that have come from the recent week or so in Clinton's direction.

Clinton vs Trump Ratings

Safe D: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, ME-01, MD, MA, NJ, NM, NY, OR, RI, VT, WA
Likely D: CO, ME-02, MI, MN, NH, PA, VA, WI
Lean D: FL, IA, NV, OH
Toss-Up: AZ, NE-02, NC
Lean R: GA, MO
Likely R: AK, IN, MT, NE-01, SC, TX
Safe R: AL, AR, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, NE, NE-03, ND, OK, SD, TN, UT, WV, WY

Safe D: 190 EVs
Likely D: 83 EVs
Lean D: 59 EVs
Toss-Up: 27 EVs
Lean R: 26 EVs
Likely R: 65 EVs
Safe R: 88 EVs

Democratic: 332 EVs
Toss-Up: 27 EVs
Republican: 179 EVs

Atlas Prediction

Ratings I'm stuck on: Nevada (Lean D vs Likely D), both Dakotas (Safe R vs Likely R), Texas (Safe R vs Likely R), Indiana (Likely R vs Lean R). Particularly because we haven't seen polls from many places other than battlegrounds. Nevada and Indiana particularly look weird, but I may update them in the coming weeks.

Overall Vote Prediction

Clinton: 50.5%
Trump: 43.5%
Johnson: 4%
Other: 2%

Rating: Likely D, bellwether: Colorado, Pennsylvania

August 16th Update

AZ: Lean R --> Toss-Up
TX: Safe R --> Likely R

August 23rd Update

UT: Likely R --> Safe R
« Last Edit: August 23, 2016, 07:25:08 pm by ElectionsGuy »Logged

Presidential Ratings and Predictions

2016 Endorsements

President/Vice President: Gary Johnson/William Weld
US SenatePhil Anderson
US House (WI-01): Uncommitted (Likely L)

Congressional Endorsements
Dwarven Dragon
Wulfric
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« Reply #51 on: August 11, 2016, 12:45:31 pm »
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WI and PA move to Lean D, NE-2 moves to a Toss-Up, SC no longer safe for Trump

Even if Trump carries all the Toss-Ups, Clinton still wins, 273-265.

Logged

Username change is long-term.

#reelectKirk

2016 House Rating: Strongly Leaning Republican
2016 Senate: http://tinyurl.com/oc3yugb
(8/11 Change - PA to Toss-Up, WI to Strong Lean D, OH to Lean R, NH to Lean D)
2016 Governor: http://tinyurl.com/h8ghczb (8/24 Change - MO/NC to Lean D)
2016 President: http://tinyurl.com/zarao64


#ConfirmGarland
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