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March 27, 2017, 05:24:41 pm
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News: Election 2016 predictions are now open!.

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| |-+  Election Predictions (Moderator: muon2)
| | |-+  2016 Senate Predictions & Analysis
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Author Topic: 2016 Senate Predictions & Analysis  (Read 25674 times)
Da-Jon
olawakandi
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« Reply #25 on: May 24, 2015, 09:34:19 am »
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Governor Strickland will be great!!!!

New senate Class after Clinton-Castro beats Walker 272-266
Ca Harris; Feinstein Dem.   Harris win 56-44
FL Murphy; Nelson Dem.     Murphy wins 51-49
IL Duckworth; Durbin Dem. Duckworth win 52-47
IN Stutzman; Donnelly Split R's win 60-40
MD Edwards; Cardin Dem.  
NV CCM; Heller Split.   CCM win 51-49
Pa Sestak; Casey Dem Sestak 51-49
WI Feingold; Baldwin Dem feingold 52-48

NH Hassan; Shaheen if she so choses to run

New House

201-234 R controlled
51D-50R Senate

« Last Edit: May 24, 2015, 08:37:26 pm by OC »Logged
Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #26 on: May 25, 2015, 01:28:19 am »
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Republicans: 51
Democrats: 47
Toss-Ups: 2

Democrats would win both Toss-Ups if the election was held today, for a 51-49 Republican Majority


Freshman Senate Class

Kamala Harris (D-CA)
Catherine Cortez-Masto (D-NV)
Tammy Duckworth (D-IL)
Russ Feingold (D-WI)
Patrick Murphy (D-FL)
Chris VanHollen (D-MD)

John Fleming (R-LA) (yeah, yeah, he'll have part of Vitter's term, but whatever.)
Marlin Stutzman (R-IN)
(If Rand Paul is the Presidential Nominee:) Andy Barr (R-KY)
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I stand with the Korean Churches for Community Development, the National Association of Evangelicals, the National Hispanic Christian Leadership Conference, World Relief, etc. in their belief that Trump's refugee orders are fundamentally anti-christian (and therefore against the values America was founded on) and must be repealed.
-
Accept it:

TX-SEN (2018) - Proj. Winner - Ted Cruz (R)
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'17 Gov. Ratings: https://tinyurl.com/h35xfkr

'18 House Rating: Lean R
Da-Jon
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« Reply #27 on: May 25, 2015, 03:30:31 am »
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Battle of control; I think the fourth seat will go either through NH or Pa. Which is a plausability. Should Hassan make up her mind.
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Da-Jon
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« Reply #28 on: May 29, 2015, 07:54:56 am »
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I think Pa needs to go back to tossup on Sabato crystal ball.
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muon2
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« Reply #29 on: October 24, 2016, 10:35:21 am »

Stickied as the election approaches.
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Where will you be for the Great American Eclipse?
ElectionsGuy
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E: 7.35, S: -7.30

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« Reply #30 on: October 29, 2016, 11:45:52 pm »
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Ratings



Republican: 30
Safe R: 13
Likely R: 3
Lean R: 1
Toss-Up: 6  <-- Overall
Lean D: 0
Likely D: 2
Safe D: 9
Democratic: 36

Prediction



Democrats: 51
Republicans: 49

Exact Percentage Predictions
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ElectionsGuy
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E: 7.35, S: -7.30

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« Reply #31 on: November 08, 2016, 12:21:39 am »
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Final Predictions

Here

Final Ratings



R + Safe R: 45
Likely R: 1
Lean R: 1
Toss-Up: 6
Lean D: 1
Likely D: 1
D + Safe D: 45
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ElectionsGuy
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E: 7.35, S: -7.30

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« Reply #32 on: November 25, 2016, 01:57:38 am »
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How off was I? Ex: D+2 means 2 points more Democratic in margin than actual result.

AL: Even
AK: I was way off, Metcalfe came in 4th!
AZ: D+4
AR: R+1
CA: Even
CO: D+5
CT: R+6
FL: D+4
GA: D+1
HI: R+9
ID: D+5
IL: R+5
IN: D+8
IA: D+12 (ouch)
KS: D+4
KY: R+4
MD: Even
MO: D+2
NV: Even
NH: D+2
NY: R+4
NC: D+3
ND: D+27! (lol)
OH: D+7
OK: D+7
OR: R+2
PA: D+3
SC: D+7
SD: D+18! (what is it with the Dakotas?)
UT: D+4
VT: D+12
WA: R+2
WI: D+7

Overall, better than the presidential race, but still awful.
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Senator LLR
LongLiveRock
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E: -4.77, S: 0.35

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« Reply #33 on: November 25, 2016, 08:05:59 am »
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To be fair, the oil boom caused a rapid conservative shift in the Dakotas that wasn't easy to predict and led to huge landslide margins...
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Mike67
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« Reply #34 on: December 08, 2016, 10:08:26 pm »
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I was really surprised when they GOP kept control of the Senate. I was really expecting the Democrats to gain a 3-4 vote majority.
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Congrats to Donald Trump on your Election as President and good luck. BUILD THAT WALL!
Da-Jon
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« Reply #35 on: December 11, 2016, 06:43:37 pm »
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When you have an ethically challenged candidate and the economy isn't the best, then this is what happens
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Dave Leip
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« Reply #36 on: February 04, 2017, 09:31:50 am »

The 2016 prediction scores have (finally) been posted.  We had no perfect state-level predictions, while six members predicted correctly 33 contests.  BushCountry had the overall highest score at 56 with 32 states wins.

Enjoy,
Dave
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MT Treasurer
IndyRep
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« Reply #37 on: February 07, 2017, 07:27:49 pm »
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I knew Johnson was going to win, but I predicted Feingold to avoid people on this forum calling me a HACK!!1!!

Oh well, my prediction was really bad. I'm not going to underestimate the GOP or blindly trust the polls in 2018. Lessons learned.
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Even if you don't agree with the women stuff, it's really hard to argue that NH is still a competitive swing state. And after 2016 (when Kelly Ayotte and Donald Trump lose the state, despite a very close presidential race and Republicans holding the Senate), this will become clear to you as well, Kingpoleon.

Senator LLR
LongLiveRock
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« Reply #38 on: February 08, 2017, 07:29:55 am »
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I knew Johnson was going to win, but I predicted Feingold to avoid people on this forum calling me a HACK!!1!!

Oh well, my prediction was really bad. I'm not going to underestimate the GOP or blindly trust the polls in 2018. Lessons learned.

Oh no, what if people on the internet don't like me
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