2024 Presidential Predictions (General)
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Author Topic: 2024 Presidential Predictions (General)  (Read 38193 times)
ElectionAtlas
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« on: January 31, 2023, 09:20:19 AM »
« edited: January 31, 2023, 02:47:14 PM by ElectionAtlas »

Hi - the Presidential Predictions for 2024 President are now open.  Please let me know if you find any issues.
Thanks,
Dave
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Solid4096
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« Reply #1 on: January 31, 2023, 05:45:27 PM »

When will we get 2024 Senate and 2023/2024 Governor predictions?
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ElectionAtlas
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« Reply #2 on: February 01, 2023, 05:58:27 PM »

Hi - The 2023 Gubernatorial Predictions are now up.
Enjoy,
Dave
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Abdullah
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« Reply #3 on: February 18, 2023, 11:58:11 AM »

There isn't a single difference right now between the aggregate 2024 prediction and the 2020 Presidential election result, both in margins of victory and in the winner.

I wonder which state will break off first
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Tutankhuman Bakari Sellers
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« Reply #4 on: February 18, 2023, 01:01:33 PM »
« Edited: March 04, 2023, 07:10:22 PM by Mr.Barkari Sellers »

There is 2 yrs between now and Eday things change I keep telling them that we just voted 6 months ago

Just like Blue avatars on the Forum whom swore Rs were gonna get 230 or 240 seats act like they had a 15 seat majority
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RFK 2024
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« Reply #5 on: March 06, 2023, 04:15:11 PM »

There isn't a single difference right now between the aggregate 2024 prediction and the 2020 Presidential election result, both in margins of victory and in the winner.

I wonder which state will break off first

Election results have become super inelastic in recent years, especially since 2018.  It's easier and more accurate to base predictions on demographic trends and voting history than polling data.

In terms of which states would be most likely to flip in 2024,  I would say NC for Dems and WI for Reps, but I'm not sure what odds I would give either atm (probably less than 50).
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Abdullah
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« Reply #6 on: March 06, 2023, 04:37:25 PM »

There isn't a single difference right now between the aggregate 2024 prediction and the 2020 Presidential election result, both in margins of victory and in the winner.

I wonder which state will break off first

Election results have become super inelastic in recent years, especially since 2018.  It's easier and more accurate to base predictions on demographic trends and voting history than polling data.

In terms of which states would be most likely to flip in 2024,  I would say NC for Dems and WI for Reps, but I'm not sure what odds I would give either atm (probably less than 50).

I'm not even talking about the actual election results but rather the predictions... These predictions have to change eventually that there's some small difference between the 2020 election results and 2024 election predictions (even in margin and not in winner).
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RFK 2024
BasedSanta
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« Reply #7 on: March 07, 2023, 10:24:24 AM »

There isn't a single difference right now between the aggregate 2024 prediction and the 2020 Presidential election result, both in margins of victory and in the winner.

I wonder which state will break off first

Election results have become super inelastic in recent years, especially since 2018.  It's easier and more accurate to base predictions on demographic trends and voting history than polling data.

In terms of which states would be most likely to flip in 2024,  I would say NC for Dems and WI for Reps, but I'm not sure what odds I would give either atm (probably less than 50).

I'm not even talking about the actual election results but rather the predictions... These predictions have to change eventually that there's some small difference between the 2020 election results and 2024 election predictions (even in margin and not in winner).


I expect they'll change when we get more polling.  The actual 2024 results will be very close to last time though.  We saw how the "blue wave" in 2020 and "red wave" in 2022 materialized.  During times of hyper partisanship coupled with online echo chambers the number of swing voters really drops off.
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Tutankhuman Bakari Sellers
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« Reply #8 on: March 07, 2023, 11:17:01 AM »

There isn't a single difference right now between the aggregate 2024 prediction and the 2020 Presidential election result, both in margins of victory and in the winner.

I wonder which state will break off first

Election results have become super inelastic in recent years, especially since 2018.  It's easier and more accurate to base predictions on demographic trends and voting history than polling data.

In terms of which states would be most likely to flip in 2024,  I would say NC for Dems and WI for Reps, but I'm not sure what odds I would give either atm (probably less than 50).

I'm not even talking about the actual election results but rather the predictions... These predictions have to change eventually that there's some small difference between the 2020 election results and 2024 election predictions (even in margin and not in winner).


I expect they'll change when we get more polling.  The actual 2024 results will be very close to last time though.  We saw how the "blue wave" in 2020 and "red wave" in 2022 materialized.  During times of hyper partisanship coupled with online echo chambers the number of swing voters really drops off.

There can be a blue wave with the same PVI 2008/12 52/46 stop worrying about a 303 map anyways we won KS 22 and we only won PVI by 0.5
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #9 on: June 14, 2023, 11:24:34 PM »

As of today, I am sticking with my "identical map to 2020" prediction.
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Abdullah
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« Reply #10 on: June 15, 2023, 01:33:19 PM »

There isn't a single difference right now between the aggregate 2024 prediction and the 2020 Presidential election result, both in margins of victory and in the winner.

I wonder which state will break off first

Election results have become super inelastic in recent years, especially since 2018.  It's easier and more accurate to base predictions on demographic trends and voting history than polling data.

In terms of which states would be most likely to flip in 2024,  I would say NC for Dems and WI for Reps, but I'm not sure what odds I would give either atm (probably less than 50).

I'm not even talking about the actual election results but rather the predictions... These predictions have to change eventually that there's some small difference between the 2020 election results and 2024 election predictions (even in margin and not in winner).


I expect they'll change when we get more polling.  The actual 2024 results will be very close to last time though.  We saw how the "blue wave" in 2020 and "red wave" in 2022 materialized.  During times of hyper partisanship coupled with online echo chambers the number of swing voters really drops off.

It was Pennsylvania which went from D>40% to D>50%
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RFK 2024
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« Reply #11 on: October 25, 2023, 09:24:05 AM »

One year out and I'll post the first map on this thread.



Legend
Tilt = less than 2% margin
Lean = 2 to 5% margin
Likely = 6 to 12% margin
Safe = over 12% margin
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LAKISYLVANIA
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« Reply #12 on: November 15, 2023, 09:59:56 PM »



IL should be safe, an error

but yeah i don't think this looks good.

I also do think New Mexico is a swing state in 2024, assuming a 10% swing among hispanics in the state and taking into account its the "least educated democratic state", which is going to trend republican anyways. NM is purple into 2024.

I think Biden's losses are rougher in the Sun Belt and the South, than in Rust Belt. But Rust Belt is not in Biden's advantage imo
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cherry mandarin
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« Reply #13 on: December 02, 2023, 02:01:46 PM »

One year out and I'll post the first map on this thread.



Legend
Tilt = less than 2% margin
Lean = 2 to 5% margin
Likely = 6 to 12% margin
Safe = over 12% margin

Nice map! What makes you think WI will vote more R than NV, AZ, GA despite 2020's results and the latest NYT/Siena poll of swing states?

Quote

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wnwnwn
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« Reply #14 on: February 12, 2024, 10:47:06 AM »

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