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Author Topic: 2014 Gubernatorial Predictions  (Read 121254 times)
nolesfan2011
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« Reply #100 on: November 03, 2014, 10:20:15 pm »
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*denotes flip

AL: (I) Robert Bentley (R) over 60%
*AK: Bill Walker (I/D) 49% (I) Sean Parnell (R) 47% Others 4%
AZ: Doug Ducey (R) 53% Fred DuVal (D) 44% Others 3%
*AR: Asa Hutchinson (R) 52% Mike Ross (D) 45% Others 3%
CA: (I) Jerry Brown (D) over 60%
CO: (I) John Hickenlooper (D) 50% Bob Beauprez (R) 48% Others 2%
*CT: Tom Foley (R) 48% (I)Dan Malloy (D) 47% Others 5%
FL: (I) Rick Scott (R) 48% Charlie Crist 47% Others (mainly Adrian Wylie (L)) 5%
GA: (I)Nathan Deal (R) 49% Jason Carter (D) 47% Andrew Hunt (L) 4%. Georgia will go to a runoff if Deal does not break 50%
HI: David Ige (D) 52% Duke Aiona (R) 40% Mufi Hannemann (I) 7% Others 1%
ID: (I) Butch Otter (R) over 55%
IL: (I) Pat Quinn (D) 51% Bruce Rauner (R) 47% Others 2%
IA: (I) Terry Branstad (R) over 55%
*KS: Paul Davis (D) 49% (I) Sam Brownback (R) 46% Keen Umbehr (L) 5%
*ME: Mike Michaud (D) 47% (I) Paul LePage (R) 45% Eliot Cutler (I) 8%
MD: Anthony Brown (D) 52% Larry Hogan (R) 46% Other 2%
*MA: Charlie Baker (R) 49% Martha Coakley (D) 46% Others 5%
*MI: Mark Schauer (D) 50% (I) Rick Snyder (R) 49% Others 1%
MN: (I) Mark Dayton (D) under 55%
NE: Pete Ricketts (R) over 55%
NV: (I) Brian Sandoval (R) over 60%
NH: (I) Maggie Hassan (D) 54% Walt Havenstein (R) 46%
NM: (I)Susana Martinez (R) over 55%
NY: (I) Andrew Cuomo (D) over 55% Howie Hawkins (G) over 10%
OH: (I) John Kasich (R) over 60%
OK: (I) Mary Fallin (R) over 55%
OR: (I) John Kitzhaber (D) under 55%
*PA: Tom Wolf (D) under 55% (incumbent (R) Tom Corbett loses but breaks 40%)
RI: Gina Raimondo (D) 46% Allen Fung (R) 42% Robert Healey (I) 10% Others 2%
SC: (I) Nikki Haley (R) under 55%
SD: (I) Dennis Daugaard (R) over 60%
TN: (I) Bill Haslam (R) over 60%
TX: Greg Abbott (R) over 55%
VT: (I) Peter Shumlin (D) over 55%
WI: (I) Scott Walker (R) 50% Mary Burke (D) 49% Others 1%
WY: (I) Matt Mead (R) over 60%
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« Reply #101 on: November 04, 2014, 01:18:37 am »
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Final Prediction: 24 Democrats, 25 Republicans, 1 Independent

Same as this, though our shades may differ in a few.
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« Reply #102 on: November 04, 2014, 05:01:10 am »
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Bold denotes a party switch.

AL: (I) Robert Bentley (R) over 60%
AK: Bill Walker (I/D) 50% (I) Sean Parnell (R) 46% Others 4%
AZ: Doug Ducey (R) 54% Fred DuVal (D) 44% Others 2%
AR: Asa Hutchinson (R) 52% Mike Ross (D) 45% Others 3%
CA: (I) Jerry Brown (D) 60% Neel Kashkari (R) 40%
CO: (I) John Hickenlooper (D) 48% Bob Beauprez (R) 49% Others 3%
CT: Tom Foley (R) 46% (I)Dan Malloy (D) 48% Others 6%
FL: (I) Rick Scott (R) 46% Charlie Crist 47% Others 7%
GA: (I)Nathan Deal (R) 48% Jason Carter (D) 45% Andrew Hunt (L) 5%. Runoff: Deal 52%; Carter 48%
HI: David Ige (D) 52% Duke Aiona (R) 40% Mufi Hannemann (I) 7% Others 1%
ID: (I) Butch Otter (R) over 55%
IL: (I) Pat Quinn (D) 49% Bruce Rauner (R) 47% Others 5%
IA: (I) Terry Branstad (R) 60% Jack Hatch 37% others 3%
KS: Paul Davis (D) 48% (I) Sam Brownback (R) 46% Keen Umbehr (L) 5%
ME: Mike Michaud (D) 45% (I) Paul LePage (R) 44% Eliot Cutler (I) 10%
MD: Anthony Brown (D) 52% Larry Hogan (R) 46% Other 2%
MA: Charlie Baker (R) 49% Martha Coakley (D) 46% Others 5%
MI: Mark Schauer (D) 47% (I) Rick Snyder (R) 49% Others 4%
MN: (I) Mark Dayton (D) 52% Jeff Johnson (R) 45% Others 3%
NE: Pete Ricketts (R) over 55%
NV: (I) Brian Sandoval (R) over 60%
NH: (I) Maggie Hassan (D) 53% Walt Havenstein (R) 45%
NM: (I)Susana Martinez (R) 56% Gary King (D) 43% others 1%
NY: (I) Andrew Cuomo (D) over 55%, Rob Astorino (R) 30%, Howie Hawkins (G) 9%
OH: (I) John Kasich (R) 62% Ed FitzGerald 35% others 5%
OK: (I) Mary Fallin (R) over 55%
OR: (I) John Kitzhaber (D) 51% Bill Richardson (R) 46%
PA: Tom Wolf (D) 53% Tom Corbett (R) 46%
RI: Gina Raimondo (D) 46% Allen Fung (R) 42% Robert Healey (I) 10% Others 2%
SC: (I) Nikki Haley (R) under 55%
SD: (I) Dennis Daugaard (R) over 60%
TN: (I) Bill Haslam (R) over 60%
TX: Greg Abbott (R) 56% Wendy Davis (D) 43%
VT: (I) Peter Shumlin (D) over 55%
WI: (I) Scott Walker (R) 50% Mary Burke (D) 48% Others 2%
WY: (I) Matt Mead (R) around 65%
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« Reply #103 on: November 28, 2014, 05:45:49 pm »
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Before the results of the gubernatorial elections prediction contest are announced, I want to note that the three final entries were submitted after the deadline (by Atheist2006, Juin, and jgsf1987), and that these predictors had access to some election results when they posted their predictions. They should either be disqualified, or simply have the penultimate predictions entered rather than the final ones (or earlier ones, if penultimate predictions were also made with access to election results). No Senate predictions were made with access to election results.

EDIT: If you remove predictions made with access to results, just one person predicted Larry Hogan's victory in Maryland -- slick67! Some congratulations are definitely in order, even if some of the other interesting parts of that prediction didn't take place.
« Last Edit: November 28, 2014, 05:50:38 pm by Vosem »Logged

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« Reply #104 on: November 29, 2014, 11:49:50 am »
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Before the results of the gubernatorial elections prediction contest are announced, I want to note that the three final entries were submitted after the deadline (by Atheist2006, Juin, and jgsf1987), and that these predictors had access to some election results when they posted their predictions. They should either be disqualified, or simply have the penultimate predictions entered rather than the final ones (or earlier ones, if penultimate predictions were also made with access to election results). No Senate predictions were made with access to election results.

EDIT: If you remove predictions made with access to results, just one person predicted Larry Hogan's victory in Maryland -- slick67! Some congratulations are definitely in order, even if some of the other interesting parts of that prediction didn't take place.

Bacon King also predicted Hogan would win Tongue
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« Reply #105 on: November 29, 2014, 02:45:10 pm »
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Before the results of the gubernatorial elections prediction contest are announced, I want to note that the three final entries were submitted after the deadline (by Atheist2006, Juin, and jgsf1987), and that these predictors had access to some election results when they posted their predictions. They should either be disqualified, or simply have the penultimate predictions entered rather than the final ones (or earlier ones, if penultimate predictions were also made with access to election results). No Senate predictions were made with access to election results.

EDIT: If you remove predictions made with access to results, just one person predicted Larry Hogan's victory in Maryland -- slick67! Some congratulations are definitely in order, even if some of the other interesting parts of that prediction didn't take place.

Bacon King also predicted Hogan would win Tongue

But he didn't submit a contest prediction Sad
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« Reply #106 on: November 29, 2014, 04:13:17 pm »
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Before the results of the gubernatorial elections prediction contest are announced, I want to note that the three final entries were submitted after the deadline (by Atheist2006, Juin, and jgsf1987), and that these predictors had access to some election results when they posted their predictions. They should either be disqualified, or simply have the penultimate predictions entered rather than the final ones (or earlier ones, if penultimate predictions were also made with access to election results). No Senate predictions were made with access to election results.

EDIT: If you remove predictions made with access to results, just one person predicted Larry Hogan's victory in Maryland -- slick67! Some congratulations are definitely in order, even if some of the other interesting parts of that prediction didn't take place.

Bacon King also predicted Hogan would win Tongue

But he didn't submit a contest prediction Sad

http://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/GOVERNOR/2014/pred.php?action=indpred&id=2125
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Vosem
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« Reply #107 on: November 29, 2014, 10:39:37 pm »
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Before the results of the gubernatorial elections prediction contest are announced, I want to note that the three final entries were submitted after the deadline (by Atheist2006, Juin, and jgsf1987), and that these predictors had access to some election results when they posted their predictions. They should either be disqualified, or simply have the penultimate predictions entered rather than the final ones (or earlier ones, if penultimate predictions were also made with access to election results). No Senate predictions were made with access to election results.

EDIT: If you remove predictions made with access to results, just one person predicted Larry Hogan's victory in Maryland -- slick67! Some congratulations are definitely in order, even if some of the other interesting parts of that prediction didn't take place.

Bacon King also predicted Hogan would win Tongue

But he didn't submit a contest prediction Sad

http://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/GOVERNOR/2014/pred.php?action=indpred&id=2125

That's...odd, since the software shows a total of 4 predictions from Hogan, and we just counted 5...slick67, BK, and the three "illegal" predictions. Hm.
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Bacon King
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« Reply #108 on: December 02, 2014, 07:05:30 pm »
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I will now accept my accolades

Seriously though the Hogan predictions are me, slick67, gporter, and colin. It appears that even though the system apparently allowed people to update their predictions after the deadline, it didn't count those late predictions towards the aggregate totals.
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Vosem
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« Reply #109 on: December 14, 2014, 01:50:57 pm »
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So...I hate to be "that guy"...but when will rankings for the prediction contest be released?
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Illegally selling arms to North Korea, providing most of the money to anti-Morales rebels in Bolivia, and using the remainder as hush money for his three ex-mistrisses. 
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