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Author Topic: 2014 Senatorial Predictions  (Read 63115 times)
Speaker SWE
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« Reply #125 on: September 06, 2014, 12:24:13 pm »
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UPDATE:
Alabama: Jeff Sessions (R) SAFE R
Alaska: Mark Begich (D) def. Dan Sullivan (R) PURE TOSSUP
Arkansas: Tom Cotton (R) def. Mark Pryor (D) TOSSUP/TILT R
Colorado: Mark Udall (D) def. Cory Gardner (R) LEAN D
Delaware: Chris Coons (D) def. Kevin Wade SAFE D

Georgia: David Perdue (R) def. Michelle Nunn (D) LEAN R
Hawaii special: Brian Schatz (D) def. Campbell Cavaso (R) SAFE D
Idaho: Jim Risch (R) def. Nels Mitchell (D) SAFE R
Illinois: Dick Durbin (D) def. Jim Oberweis (R) SAFE D
Iowa: Bruce Baley (D) def. Joni Ernst (R) TOSSUP/TILT D

Kansas: Pat Roberts (R) def. Greg Orman (I/D) LEAN R
Kentucky: Mitch McConnell (R) def. Allison Lundergan Grimes (D) LEAN  R
Louisiana: Bill Cassidy (R) def. Mary Landrieau (D) LEAN R
Maine: Susan Collins (R) def. Shenna Bellows (D) SAFE R

Massachusetts: Ed Markey (D) def. Frank Addivinola (R) SAFE D
Michigan: Gary Peters (D) def. Terri Lynn Land (R) LIKELY D
Minnesota: Al Franken (D) def. Mike McFadden SAFE D (R)

Mississippi: Thad Cochran (R) def. Travis Childers (D) SAFE R
Montana: Steve Daines (R) def. Amanda Curtis (D) SAFE R
Nebraska: Ben Sasse (R) def. Dave Domina (D) SAFE R

New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaheen (D) def. Scott Brown (R) SAFE D
New Jersey: Cory Booker (D) def. Jeff Bell (R) SAFE D
New Mexico: Tom Udall (D) def. Allen Weh (R) SAFE D

North Carolina: Thom Tillis (R) def. Kay Hagan (D) PURE TOSSUP
Oklahoma: Jim Inhofe (R) def. Matt Silverstein (D) SAFE R
Oklahoma special: James Lankford (R) def. Constance Johnson (D) SAFE R

Oregon: Jeff Merkley (D) def. Monica Wehby (R) SAFE D
Rhode Island: Jack Reed (D) def. Mark Zaccaria (R) SAFE D
South Carolina: Lindsey Graham (R) def. Brad Hutty (D) SAFE R
South Carolina special: Tim Scott (R) def. Joyce Dickerson (D) SAFE R
South Dakota: Mike Rounds (R) def. Rick Weiland (D) and Larry Pressler (I) SAFE R
Tennessee: Lamar Alexander (R) def. Terry Adams (D) SAFE R
Texas: John Cornyn (R) def. Dabid Alameel (D) SAFE R

Virginia: Mark Warner (D) def. Ed Gillespie (R) SAFE D
West Virginia: Shelley Moore Capito (R) def Natalie Tennent (D) SAFE R
Wyoming: Mike Enzi (R) def. Charlie Hardy (D) SAFE R


For a net gain of R+6
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« Reply #126 on: September 06, 2014, 09:01:07 pm »
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R+4
« Last Edit: September 06, 2014, 09:03:15 pm by Illuminati Blood Drinker »Logged

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« Reply #127 on: September 07, 2014, 05:39:35 am »
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Using the most conservative estimate (thus with many tossups and leans and few safe seats):



Realistically, I'd put IL, MN, SD and NJ in the safe column.
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22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

It really is.



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« Reply #128 on: September 10, 2014, 02:55:28 pm »
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Post-Primary Season Update:

Safe D: DE, HI (S), IL, MA, NJ, NM, OR, RI, VA
Likely D: MI, MN, NH
Lean D: CO
Toss-Up: AK, AR, IA, KS, LA, NC
Lean R: GA, KY
Likely R: SD
Safe R: AL, ID, ME, MS, MT, NE, OK, OK (S), SC, SC (S), TN, TX, WV, WY

Here's my guesstimate of what percentages will look like for each race.

Alabama:

Sessions - 100%

Alaska:


Sullivan - 48%
Begich - 47%

Arkansas:


Cotton - 51%
Pryor - 47%

Colorado:


Udall - 50%
Gardner - 47%

Delaware:

Coons - 64%
Wade - 35%

Georgia (pre-runoff):


Perdue - 52%
Nunn - 45%

Hawaii (S):


Schatz - 65%
Cavasso - 34%

Idaho:

Risch - 65%
Mitchell - 35%

Illinois:

Durbin - 56%
Oberweis - 43%

Kansas*:

Roberts - 46%
Orman - 43%
Taylor - 9%

Kentucky:

McConnell - 52%
Grimes - 46%

Louisiana**:

Landrieu - 45%
Cassidy - 29%
Maness - 14%
Other - 12%

Cassidy - 52%
Landrieu - 48%

Maine:

Collins - 66%
Bellows - 34%

Massachusetts:


Markey - 62%
Herr - 37%

Michigan:


Peters - 53%
Land - 45%

Minnesota:


Franken - 54%
McFadden - 43%

Mississippi:

Cochran - 59%
Childers - 40%

Montana:


Daines - 58%
Curtis - 39%

Nebraska:

Sasse - 60%
Domina - 38%

New Hampshire:

Shaheen - 54%
Brown - 46%

New Jersey:

Booker - 58%
Bell - 40%

New Mexico:


Udall - 59%
Weh - 41%

North Carolina:


Hagan - 47%
Tillis - 46%

Oklahoma:

Inhofe - 65%
Silverstein - 34%

Oklahoma (S):

Lankford - 64%
Johnson - 35%

Oregon:

Merkley - 57%
Wehby - 41%

Rhode Island:

Reed - 67%
Zaccaria - 33%

South Carolina:

Graham - 57%
Hutto - 42%

South Carolina (S):

Scott - 58%
Dickerson - 41%

South Dakota


Rounds - 46%
Weiland - 32%
Pressler - 22%

Tennessee:


Alexander - 63%
Ball - 35%

Texas:


Cornyn - 58%
Alameel - 40%

Virginia:

Warner - 58%
Gillespie - 38%

West Virginia:

Capito - 57%
Tennant - 42%

Wyoming:


Enzi - 70%

Hardy - 29%

*Assuming Taylor stays on the ballot
**Both the pre-runoff and runoff results

Profile Prediction (probably need to update this as well)

Net Gain R+6, realistic gain is anywhere from 4 to 8. Recent moves: SD from Safe to Likely. WV from Likely to Safe. IA from Lean D to toss-up. Sorry for the long list but likely I won't be updating again until October
« Last Edit: September 16, 2014, 04:28:29 pm by ElectionsGuy »Logged

2014 Senate Prediction
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SPC
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« Reply #129 on: September 24, 2014, 12:59:09 pm »
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Safe GOP (>98% Chance of Victory)
All unlisted GOP seats + Montana, West Virginia, South Dakota

Advantage GOP (60-98% Chance of Victory)
Arkansas, Georgia, Kentucky

Tossup
Alaska*, Colorado, Iowa, Kansas*, Louisiana*

Advantage DEM
Michigan, New Hampshire, North Carolina

Safe DEM
All unlisted DEM seats

Asterisked seats would enter the colored category if additional polling information validated what scarce polling data is available.

Georgia would be in the tossup category due to Perdue's insignificant edge in polling, but the hurdle of a runoff works to Perdue's advantage (although I think the turnout difference between the general and the runoff would be far less pronounced than in 2008, when Obama was on the ballot in a presidential year)

Louisiana remains in the tossup category because Cassidy's current polling advantage is both unconfirmed by multiple sources and less than Manness's vote share. Given that it is uncertain whether Republicans will capture 5 or more seats on Election Day, I am not prepared to write off Landrieu's chances in a runoff. However, if Cassidy is truly ahead in the general election, it is hard to see Landrieu prevailing in a runoff, even if Republicans fall short of a majority.

Given my tendency to be slightly optimistic regarding Republican electoral chances (see my 2006, 2010, and 2012 predictions), I am inclined to assign the tossup seats without an asterisk next to them to the Democrats, if forced to choose.
« Last Edit: September 24, 2014, 02:05:26 pm by SPC »Logged

OC
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« Reply #130 on: September 24, 2014, 03:53:04 pm »
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Purple states

CO, NH, MI, IA, NC  Dem

KS indy pickup

Minimum seats Dem need for control is 47 without La and AK

For now I am calling it 47-3-50 & VP Biden breaks tie while La and Ga may head into runoff.
« Last Edit: September 24, 2014, 03:59:48 pm by OC »Logged
ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #131 on: October 12, 2014, 04:06:19 pm »
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Update (2nd last one before 11/4)

Safe D: DE, HI (S), IL, MA, MI, MN, NJ, NM, OR, RI, VA
Likely D: NH
Lean D: NC
Toss-Up: AK, CO, IA, KS, LA
Lean R: AR, GA, KY, SD
Likely R: None
Safe R: AL, ID, ME, MS, MT, NE, OK, OK (S), SC, SC (S), TN, TX, WV, WY

Changes since last update:

MI: Likely D --> Safe D
MN: Likely D --> Safe D
NC: Toss-Up --> Lean D
CO: Lean D --> Toss-Up
AR: Toss-Up --> Lean R
SD: Likely R --> Lean R

Profile Prediction

Guesstimate of margins for competitive races:

Alaska:

Sullivan - 50%
Begich - 46%

Arkansas:

Cotton - 52%
Pryor - 47%

Colorado:

Udall - 49%
Gardner - 48%

Georgia:

Perdue
- 52%
Nunn - 45%

Iowa:

Ernst - 50%
Braley - 48%

Kansas:

Orman - 49%
Roberts - 46%

Kentucky:

McConnell - 53%
Grimes - 45%

Louisiana:

Landrieu - 44%
Cassidy - 36%
Maness - 11%

Cassidy - 51%
Landrieu - 49%

North Carolina:

Hagan - 48%
Tillis - 46%

South Dakota:

Rounds - 39%
Pressler - 32%
Weiland - 27%

For a net gain of R+6 or R+7 (depending on Orman), with 52 or 51 Republicans (with or without Orman) and 48 or 49 Democrats (with or without Orman).
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OC
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« Reply #132 on: October 13, 2014, 01:50:28 pm »
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Begich, Grimes and Weiland win.

53-47
« Last Edit: October 13, 2014, 02:03:40 pm by OC »Logged
IDS Speaker Flo
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« Reply #133 on: October 18, 2014, 01:57:22 pm »
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My most hackish senate map



July 2013
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« Reply #134 on: October 18, 2014, 03:49:17 pm »
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My most hackish senate map



July 2013

I remember back in 2013 when people were doubtful about Maine, Montana was assumed Democrat because #Schweitzer4Senate, West Virginia was assumed democrat because it never votes Republican for Congress, and all the other battlegrounds were assumed democratic because muh Incumbency (except for McConnell of course)

Good times.

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2014 Senate Prediction
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« Reply #135 on: October 20, 2014, 05:31:23 am »
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Here's my newest map:



The states I'm least certain about are IA, NH, KS
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« Reply #136 on: October 21, 2014, 10:39:32 pm »
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Alabama: Jeff Sessions (R) (Safe R HOLD)
Alaska: Dan Sullivan (R) (Lean R GAIN)
Arkansas: Tom Cotton (R) (Lean R GAIN)
Colorado: Cory Gardner (R) (Lean R GAIN)
Delaware: Chris Coons (D) (Safe D HOLD)
Georgia: David Perdue (R) (Lean R HOLD)
Hawaii: Brian Schatz (D) (Safe D HOLD)
Idaho: Jim Risch (R) (Safe R HOLD)
Illinois: Dick Durbin (D) (Safe D HOLD)
Iowa: Joni Ernst (R) (Lean R GAIN)
Kansas: Greg Orman (I) (Tossup)
Kentucky: Mitch McConnell (R) (Lean R HOLD)
Louisiana: Bill Cassidy (R) (Lean R GAIN)
Maine: Susan Collins (R) (Safe R HOLD)
Massachusetts: Ed Markey (D) (Safe D HOLD)
Michigan: Gary Peters (D) (Safe D HOLD)
Minnesota: Al Franken (D) (Safe D HOLD)
Mississippi: Thad Cochran (R) (Safe R HOLD)
Montana: Steve Daines (R) (Safe R GAIN)
Nebraska: Ben Sasse (R) (Safe R HOLD)
New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaneen (D) (Lean D HOLD)
New Jersey: Cory Booker (D) (Safe D HOLD)
New Mexico: Tom Udall (D) (Safe D HOLD)
North Carolina: Kay Hagan (D) (Lean D HOLD)
Oklahoma (1): Jim Inhofe (R) (Safe R HOLD)
Oklahoma (2): James Lankford (R) (Safe R HOLD)
Oregon: Jeff Merkley (D) (Safe D HOLD)
Rhode Island: Jack Reed (D) (Safe D HOLD)
South Carolina (1): Lindsey Graham (R) (Safe R HOLD)
South Carolina (2): Tim Scott (R) (Safe R HOLD)
South Dakota: Mike Rounds (R) (Lean R GAIN)
Tennessee: Lamar Alexander (R) (Safe R HOLD)
Texas: John Cornyn (R) (Safe R HOLD)
Virginia: Mark Warner (D) (Safe D HOLD)
West Virginia: Shelley Moore Capito (R) (Safe R HOLD)
Wyoming: Mike Enzi (R) (Safe R HOLD)

R+7

Composition of the 114th United States Senate:
Republican Party: 52 seats
Democratic Party: 45 seats
Independents: 3 seats
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"The only thing we have to fear is fear itself."
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"Government by organized money is just as dangerous as Government by organized mob."
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« Reply #137 on: October 22, 2014, 04:58:55 am »
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22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

It really is.



"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

Peppino, from the movie Baaria
Antonio V
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« Reply #138 on: October 28, 2014, 03:30:43 pm »
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Quote from: IRC
22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

It really is.



"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

Peppino, from the movie Baaria
OC
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« Reply #139 on: October 28, 2014, 05:31:11 pm »
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SFinal prediction
51D/48/1

Begich def Sullivan 51/49 (hold)

Cotton def Pryor 53/47 (R pick up)

Udall def Gardner 52/48 (hold)

Durbin def Oberweis 60/40

Braley def Ernst 51/49 (hold)

Orman def Roberts 47/43  (pick up)

Landrieu def Cassidy 53/47 (hold)

Collins def Bellows 70/28

Peters def Land 53/47 (hold)

Daines def Curtis 63/37 (R pick up)

Shaheen def Brown 54/46

Hagen def Tillis 51/49 (hold)

Rounds def Weiland 50/29 (R pick up)

Capito def Tennant 55/45 (R pickup)

Wash in senate
« Last Edit: October 28, 2014, 05:46:29 pm by OC »Logged
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« Reply #140 on: October 30, 2014, 10:25:07 am »
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South Dakota, West Virginia and Montana are the only seats that I am 100% sure the Republicans will pick up. Gun to my head, I would give the Republicans a slight edge in Colorado, Arkansas, Louisiana, Iowa and Kansas and would probably give Michelle Nunn a very minuscule edge in Georgia however.
« Last Edit: October 30, 2014, 10:27:19 am by MATTROSE94 »Logged

yeah what the f[inks] even is that monstrous amalgamation of man and machine

Like I said 1960 was a f***ing crazy election year. It's like everyone woke up and wondered "who the hell should I vote for?"
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