Hungarian election

[ag]

Today is the first round. It's a mixed single-member run-off/PR system. So far, w/ 87.03% of the first round vote processed the projected results are (there is a total of 386 seats, some of these will be filled later this month):

Sociallists alone 103 seats
Joint candidates of Sociallists and Free Democrats 5 seats
Free Democrats alone  4 seats
Total left-center alliance 112 seats

Total rigthwing alliance (joint list of Young Democrats/Civic Forum and KDNP) 98 seats

To be determined 176 seats 

[ag]

On the list vote (slightly more than half the seats) parties have to get 5% to be represented (pre-electoral alliances, I believe, are subject to the 10% threshold)

So far, the results are as follows:

Hungarian Sociallist Party 43.25%
FIDESZ/Hungarian Civic Union (equal shares for FIDESZ/HCU and KDNP) 42.59%
Union of Free Democrats 5.96%
MDF 4.99%

everybody else less then 2.5%

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Who runs the current government?

[ag]

Who runs the current government?

Sociallists w/ the support of the Free Democrats. Was even closer last time - if I remember correctly, FIDESZ were leading after the first round, and in the end the difference was just a matter of a couple of seats.

[ag]

Results so far indicate an overall Sociallist/Free Dem win. Given that the Left/Center vote is divided in the first round single-seat constituencies, they tend to do better in the second round (in fact, in many seats they together have over 50% now, and should be on track to winning in the second round). The rightwing alliance, in contrast, is already running joint list/joint candidates. Even if the rightwing MDF gets past the 5% (they have 4.98% now), still the addition they can give the FIDESZ in the second round is smaller than the addition of the Free Dem vote to the Sociallist vote (and, in some cases, the other way around - Free Dems seem to be recovering from near-disappearance nicely).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Hungarians like their elections close

Is there a results website?

[ag]

http://www.election.hu/main_en.html

[Filuwaúrdjan]

http://www.election.hu/main_en.html

Thanks

[ag]

MDF seems to be making it.

The latest projections (w/90.34%%):

Sociallists 103 seats
FIDESZ/KDNP 98 seats
Sociallists/Free Dems 5
Free Dems 4
MDF 2
To be determined 174 seats

On the PR vote:
Sociallists 43.28%
FIDESZ/KDNP 42.41%
Free Democrats 6.08%
MDF 5.00% (they are 154 votes above the threshold so far!)

[ag]

The latest projections (w/98.73%):

Sociallists 105 seats
FIDESZ/KDNP 97 seats
Sociallists/Free Dems 5
Free Dems 4
MDF 2
To be determined 173 seats

On the PR vote:
Sociallists 43.25%
FIDESZ/KDNP 42.08%
Free Democrats 6.41%
MDF 5.04%

If I understand it right, some of the proportional seats are not yet being projected, since there is a complicated apportionment among the territorial districts involved. We might get that after 100% reports.

[ag]

Just to compare w/ the last time (2002)

Sociallists 42.05%
FIDESZ/MDF 41.07% (note the slightly different coalition)
Free Democrats 5.57%

everybody else less than 5% (though a few parties came somewhat close)

[ag]

The final first round results (100% reporting).

Sociallists 105 seats
FIDESZ/KDNP 97 seats
Sociallists/Free Dems 4 seats
Free Dems 4 seats
MDF 2 seats
To be determined 174 seats

On the PR vote:
Sociallists 43.21%
FIDESZ/KDNP 42.03%
Free Democrats 6.50%
MDF 5.04%

[ag]

2nd round today. Should be interesting.

[YoMartin]

If I understand it right, some of the proportional seats are not yet being projected, since there is a complicated apportionment among the territorial districts involved. We might get that after 100% reports.

Hungary and Ecuador are two countries whose electoral systems I`ve never been able to fully understand. They combine two types of mixed systems (the hungarian case combines aspects of Germany`s and Japan`s systems). I guess very, very few voters know exactly what happens after they vote.

[ag]

Don't have time to post details, but the Sociallists seem to have won nicely.

[ag]

EDIT: Comparison w/ 2002
Nearly final results:

Out of total of 386 seats (+1)

Sociallists alone: 186 seats (34 individual constituencies in round 1, 63 individual constituencies in round 2, 71 territorial list seats and 18 national top-up seats) (+1)

Joint candidates of Sociallists and Free Democrats 6 seats (4 individual constituencies in round 1 and 2 individual constituencies in round 2) (+6)

Free Democrats alone 18 seats (3 individual constituencies in round 2, 4 territorial list seats and 11 national top-up seats). (0)

Total government coalition 210 seats (+7)

FIDESZ-Hungarian Civic Union and KDNP 164 seats (28 individual constituencies in round 1, 41 individual constituencies in round 2, 69 territorial list seats and 26 national top-up seats) (-18)

Hungarian Democratic Forum 11 seats (2 territorial list seats and 9 national top-up seats) (+11)

SOMOGYÉRT (a local independent in a Somogy county district) 1 seat (second round individual constituency) (+1)