Who does the BNP hurt more? Tories or Labour?

[phk]

Who does the BNP hurt more? Tories or Labour?

[Cubby]

While Al or Afleitch is better qualified than me to answer this, I'll say the Tories, since if the BNP didn't exist they would likely vote for them over Labour. But even compared to UKIP I don't think the BNP is really a threat beyond a few seats.

Has the BNP ever gotten more than 5% in any constituency in the past decade?

[Rural Radical]

IMO the BNP take votes of the Tories.

They got over 10% In Both Oldham seats and Burnley recently.

[freek]

My feeling is that it hurts Labour more than the Conservatives. I think BNP voters are more lower class, the traditional Labour voter, people afraid of losing their job (and their city) to foreign "intruders".

[Filuwaúrdjan]

That depends where the area in question that the BNP is active in, is... in Halifax the evidence points strongly towards the BNP largely taking votes off the Tories, and this is generally true in Bradford/Keighley as well (but not to *quite* the same extent).
This isn't the case in the London area; in the infamous Millwall [local] by-election, the BNP vote came (IIRC) largely from Labour, and this seems to be the case in Barking as well... although maybe not in Dagenham.
A confused picture really.

My feeling is that it hurts Labour more than the Conservatives. I think BNP voters are more lower class, the traditional Labour voter, people afraid of losing their job (and their city) to foreign "intruders".

BNP voters in *most* areas tend to be lower middle class actually (and most of the ones that aren't, tend to be what's left of the old working class Tory vote) although as this wasn't exactly the case in Millwall (when the media first came into contact with them really) the media don't often acknowledge that.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The highest ever BNP share of the vote in a Westminster election was 16.9% in Barking last year where they were ahead of the LibDems and just 0.2% off the Tories. Labour held the seat o/c.
Turnout was rather low (just 50%).
I think this may have been the highest share for a far-right party since the BUF in the '30's (but only by about 1%; the National Front polled something like 16% in the West Bromwich by-election of 1973).

They also polled over 10% in two seats; Dewsbury, but that was due to some unusual circumstances (the longserving Labour M.P (since 1987) was retiring, the Labour candidate (and now M.P) is a Muslim, as was the Tory candidate...) and there vote will fall there next election, even if only because of boundary changes (which remove the BNP's best ward) and also in Burnley (where they did worse than expected).

They also came close to 10% in West Bromwich West and also in Dagenham.
Griffin himself stood in Keighley and by the look of his face at the count, wished that he hadn't...

[Harry Hayfield]

BNP saved deposits 2005

Ashton under Lyne, Barking, Batley and Spen, Birmingham Hodge Hill, Birmingham Yardley, Blackburn, Bradford North, Bradford South, Bradford West, Burnley, Dagenham, Dewsbury, Dudley North, Halifax, Hyndburn, Keighley, Morley and Rothwell, Normanton, Oldham West and Royton, Pendle, Pontefract and Castleford, Rother Valley, Rotherham, Sheffield Brightside, Stoke-on-Trent Central, Stoke-on-Trent North, Stoke-on-Trent South, Thurrock, Walsall North, Walsall South, Warley, Wentworth, West Bromwich East, West Bromwich West

BNP saved deposits 2001

Barking, Burnley, Oldham East and Saddleworth, Oldham West and Royton,
Poplar and Canning Town

BNP saved deposits 1997

Bethnal Green and Bow, Dewsbury

[Serenity Now]

While Al or Afleitch is better qualified than me to answer this, I'll say the Tories, since if the BNP didn't exist they would likely vote for them over Labour. But even compared to UKIP I don't think the BNP is really a threat beyond a few seats.

Has the BNP ever gotten more than 5% in any constituency in the past decade?

Yes, in about 32 seats in the last general election. A lot of them around the West Midlands, Yorskhire and the East End of London, they seem to do especially well in nearby areas with large ethnic minority populations rather than in then.

[afleitch]

I would say the BNP take votes off both main parties, but again each seat is different.

[Democratic Hawk]

I think the BNP is more likely to appeal to disgruntled working class voters, Labour or Conservative

But, since the working class trends Labour as a whole, I voted that the BNP is more likely to hurt Labour. They seem to poll well in areas with a relatively high ethnic minority population (such areas tend to be Labour as well)

Dave

[minionofmidas]

Needless to say really, they mostly "hurt" other third parties and non-voters.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yes, in about 32 seats in the last general election.

True, but most of them also have low turnouts. Very low in some cases. You can poll under 2,000 votes and cling onto your deposit in a lot of places these days. Not much of an achievement, especially in (to pick a random example) Wentworth, where if you aren't Labour there isn't really much point turnout out to vote (although despite that non-Labour voters in Labour areas are more likely to vote than Labour voters. Strange things, humans) and as such protest-voting for the BNP (or whoever) doesn't seem like a dangerous thing to do.
Also note that the BNP didn't run candidates in most seats.

10% is different, and 15% even more so.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Well observed. Interestingly the BNP are going to run two candidates in Shrewsbury (the town I was born in) this year. One in Harlescott, one in Sutton & Reabrook (both are working class suburbs). Harlescott is a split ward at the moment (although both seats should be Labour) and the Tory (who's well into her '80's now. Been a counciller since ever I think) is up this year. Seeing as her vote has a similer demographic profile to that of the BNP, she could be in a lot of trouble. Sutton is currently all-Labour (although in 2002 it was all-Tory; Labour gained one seat in 2004 and the other in a by-election in 2005) and it's not certain whether it'll be close or not.
Hopefully the BNP won't do well in either though... I don't think they've run anything in Shrewsbury before though. Maybe a County Council candidate? I'd better check...
Last time they made an assault on anywhere in Shropshire (in the Madeley ward of Telford & Wrekin) they did very badly

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Needless to say really, they mostly "hurt" other third parties and non-voters.

I'm pretty sure that's what happen in Dagenham

[Rural Radical]

BNP stood in Gobowen in Oswestry BC in 2003 IIRC.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

BNP stood in Gobowen in Oswestry BC in 2003 IIRC.

So they did... Gobowen results 2003... (three seats)

Con 28.5%, Lib 25.8%, UKIP 21.9%, Lab 19.2%, BNP 4.5%

The UKIP guy gets most of his votes from people who vote Labour in Westminster elections. He also sits with the Labour-leaning Indie group on the council, strangely enough.

[Rural Radical]

BNP stood in Gobowen in Oswestry BC in 2003 IIRC.

So they did... Gobowen results 2003... (three seats)

Con 28.5%, Lib 25.8%, UKIP 21.9%, Lab 19.2%, BNP 4.5%

The UKIP guy gets most of his votes from people who vote Labour in Westminster elections. He also sits with the Labour-leaning Indie group on the council, strangely enough.

I didnt know that. Saying that a lot of Eurosceptics are on the left a la Tony Benn.

[Serenity Now]

They also came close to 10% in West Bromwich West and also in Dagenham.
Griffin himself stood in Keighley and by the look of his face at the count, wished that he hadn't...

It was nice to see Labour's Ann Cryer and the towering Tory candidate both looking so respectable and dignified, what with Griffin there...

[Serenity Now]

Yes, in about 32 seats in the last general election.

True, but most of them also have low turnouts. Very low in some cases. You can poll under 2,000 votes and cling onto your deposit in a lot of places these days.

In 05 the Greens won a deposit in Liverpool Riverside (lowest turnout of any seat BTW, for people other than Al) with only 1707 votes.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Well observed. Interestingly the BNP are going to run two candidates in Shrewsbury (the town I was born in) this year. One in Harlescott, one in Sutton & Reabrook (both are working class suburbs). Harlescott is a split ward at the moment (although both seats should be Labour) and the Tory (who's well into her '80's now. Been a counciller since ever I think) is up this year. Seeing as her vote has a similer demographic profile to that of the BNP, she could be in a lot of trouble. Sutton is currently all-Labour (although in 2002 it was all-Tory; Labour gained one seat in 2004 and the other in a by-election in 2005) and it's not certain whether it'll be close or not.
Hopefully the BNP won't do well in either though... I don't think they've run anything in Shrewsbury before though. Maybe a County Council candidate? I'd better check...
Last time they made an assault on anywhere in Shropshire (in the Madeley ward of Telford & Wrekin) they did very badly
[/quote]

My grammar was a bit messed up but it seems you worked out what I mean't anyway

[Serenity Now]

I've made a map of seats where minor party and independent candidates saved deposits, but I don't know if I can host it right :/

If anyone can I'll email it to them.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Have you tried using imageshack or photobucket?

[Serenity Now]

Have you tried using imageshack or photobucket?

I might be too large, but I'll try... Later on though, I'm having trouble connecting to photobucket.

[Serenity Now]

Here's an interesting bit of news:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/4913164.stm

[quote]

Minister says BNP tempting voters

White working class voters are being "tempted" by the British National Party as they feel Labour is not listening to their concerns, a minister has said.

Employment minister Margaret Hodge said the BNP could win seats in her Barking constituency in May's council polls.

She said the area's "difficult" change from a white area to a multi-racial community had caused some people to seek out "scapegoats".

The BNP said Labour were ignoring fears over "mass immigration" to the UK

In last year's general election the BNP polled third in Barking, east London, receiving 17% of the vote.

'Frightened'

Mrs Hodge told BBC Radio 4's The World This Weekend: "The political class as a whole is often frightened of engaging in the very difficult issues of race and...the BNP then exploits that and try and create out of a perception a reality which is not the reality of people's lives."

She added that Labour had to promote its achievements to the electorate.

"We also have to go out and say very, very strongly the benefits of the new, rich multi-racial society which is part of this part of London for me."

She said the change from a white working class community to a multi-racial community was "difficult".

"In that context, if people find there are things they can't access, you very quickly look for a scapegoat. That is what is happening," Mrs Hodge said.

"If we are to counter that perception - which the BNP seek to exploit and Migrationwatch fans - if we are to counter that we need to go out and we need to engage in a very direct way with all our voters."

The Sunday Telegraph reported that Mrs Hodge said many constituents were angry at the lack of housing and asylum seekers being housed in the area by inner London councils.

Mrs Hodge told the paper she has been out campaigning two days a week in an attempt to counter the BNP efforts.

She has found that as many as eight out of 10 white families admit they are tempted to vote BNP.[/u]

"That's something we have never seen before, in all my years. Even when people voted BNP they used to be ashamed to vote BNP," she said.

Immigration debate

The BNP said the party had been demonised by the "far left" for talking about immigration.

BNP spokesman Dr Phil Edwards said: "People are being tempted by the BNP because Labour and the Tories don't have any inclination to debate the effect of mass immigration on communities in Britain.

He went on: "In a democracy we should have all opinions. We should debate whether mass immigration is a good thing."

The BNP said Labour was "culpable, it's mainly their fault that people in places like Dagenham and Barking have become so alienated."

He said that it was up to the BNP to "sort out the mess that Labour has created".

[minionofmidas]

Interesting piece.
What´s "Migrationwatch" though?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So in Barking they mainly take from poorer whites? How very different to certain other areas.
If we take what Hodge said at face value (and really we shouldn't, but that's a different story; unlike in nearby Dagenham, Barking doesn't have a strong Labour party machine (it wins via enough people knee-jerkingly voting Labour) and has had a lot of trouble getting activists out and all that) then it's not so much a question of the BNP polling 60% of the vote in Barking (won't happen) but of a lot of white voters in Barking voting for their normal party with their first two votes, but voting for the BNP candidate with their third vote, as a sort of protest.

Migrationwatch are bunch of xenophobic tossers who turn up on the media and tell lies about immigration.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Joseph Rowntree foundation has published a report in which it says that up to a quarter of people in a survey, might vote for the BNP (and one of the academics involved has had to spend a lot of time patiently explaining to hacks that "This is a very hypothetical question," it is not what party you will vote for, but who you might vote for.") which might not be a very useful statistic for the reasons that he just said.

I *think* it's this report: http://www.jrrt.org.uk/Far_Right_REPORT.pdf and if it isn't, I post it when it comes online.
Some interesting things from the report above include; *potential* support for the BNP is highest in London (especially outer-east London) and that BNP voters are NOT repeat NOT very likely to be from the poorest segments of society. And that they do much better with older voters than other age groups.

Nothing suprising though