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Author Topic: Granholm, Devos Tied: EPIC/MRA  (Read 3234 times)
MSUfan
Jtfdem
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« on: April 11, 2006, 04:53:44 pm »
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Michigan Governor

(D) Granholm 43%

(R) DeVos       43%

Poll Source URL
« Last Edit: April 30, 2006, 04:42:13 pm by Dave Leip »Logged
MSUfan
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« Reply #1 on: April 11, 2006, 04:58:29 pm »
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GRanholm is in mucho trouble.
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MasterJedi
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« Reply #2 on: April 11, 2006, 07:31:44 pm »
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If this is true I'll go dancing in the streets! Michigan has a chance to go Rep! Smiley
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MSUfan
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« Reply #3 on: April 11, 2006, 07:43:07 pm »
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DeVos has been running ads for a while and that packaged with a string of bad economic news seems to have pushed his pole numbers up.

My prediction

Granholm 50%

DeVos 48%
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jokerman
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« Reply #4 on: April 11, 2006, 07:54:31 pm »
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No

Look at those high numbers of undecideds.  This is just typical Michigan saying "im pissed off at my financial situation right now."  Granholm will end up winning by 5-6 points.
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« Reply #5 on: April 11, 2006, 07:56:42 pm »
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EPIC/MRA has historically been fairly erratic, no?  Those are too many undecideds, too, as Preston said.
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n/c
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« Reply #6 on: April 11, 2006, 08:56:48 pm »
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No

Look at those high numbers of undecideds.  This is just typical Michigan saying "im pissed off at my financial situation right now."  Granholm will end up winning by 5-6 points.

Almost nobody wins by 5 or more points. Posthumus only lost to Granholm by 4 in 2002.
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« Reply #7 on: April 11, 2006, 08:58:04 pm »
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This is the second tie so far in the polls, and EPIC/MRA leans democrat.  I think Granholm's going to lose by 3.

DeVos - 50
Granholm - 47
Other - 1
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MSUfan
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« Reply #8 on: April 11, 2006, 09:44:34 pm »
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epic/mra leans democrat-granholm and devos tied

strategic vision-leans repub- granholm up 17

what?
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #9 on: April 11, 2006, 09:55:29 pm »
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Historically of the Michigan-only polls, EPIC/MRA leans Democratic and Mitchell Research leans Republican.

However, the Michigan Governor polls of late have been really erratic, ranging from Granholm/Devos tied to Granholm up +10 and more.  Nothing in-between. 

I'd believe this is simply a run of odd samples if the Stabenow Senate polling was equally strange, but it hasn't been.

It could just be a volatile electorate in Michigan because of the economy.  It's my best guess.

But I think the smart move right now is to ignore all polls from Michigan and wait a while.  Smiley
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ATFFL
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« Reply #10 on: April 11, 2006, 09:56:46 pm »
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epic/mra leans democrat-granholm and devos tied

strategic vision-leans repub- granholm up 17

what?

1 in 20.  1 in 20.
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Gabu
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« Reply #11 on: April 11, 2006, 10:15:50 pm »
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1 in 20.  1 in 20.

Yes, but the question is the following: which is the 1 in 20?  We've seen about an equal number of polls from Michigan showing either Granholm at like +15 or the race in a dead heat; it's not like there's one single outlier.
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« Reply #12 on: April 12, 2006, 12:02:47 am »
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If this is true I'll go dancing in the streets! Michigan has a chance to go Rep! Smiley

I would too, if this guy is truly economic conservative Smiley  At a state level, I'd feel more likely to vote Republican because I know that they can't f--- it up as bad in the international realm Grin

No

Look at those high numbers of undecideds.  This is just typical Michigan saying "im pissed off at my financial situation right now."  Granholm will end up winning by 5-6 points.

Roll Eyes Please. as MI Republican said already, hardly anyone wins by that much.  It will be close.  Ultimately I think Jtfdem's accurate.  It'll be about 50% Granholm, 49% DeVos, 1% crazy circle one: (Fascist party, Communist lite, Libertarian, Larouchie-like, Independent, Free Soil, Bullmoose) party
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WalterMitty
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« Reply #13 on: April 12, 2006, 09:08:53 am »
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both are horrible people.

but ill take a chance on the tupperware salesman.  miss america has already proved to be a failure.
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MSUfan
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« Reply #14 on: April 12, 2006, 05:02:29 pm »
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DeVos endoresed granholms economic plan. So much for economically republican.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #15 on: April 13, 2006, 08:07:48 am »
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I think incumbency will still win the day here, but DeVos might well make it close. I would like Mason-Dixon to do a poll here...
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« Reply #16 on: April 14, 2006, 10:22:54 am »
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epic/mra leans democrat-granholm and devos tied

strategic vision-leans repub- granholm up 17

what?

I'm referring more to internal polling. The democrats like to use EPIC and the GOP uses Mitchell. That doesn't always mean that the poll favors one. Mitchell was more democrat friendly in 2000 and more GOP friendly in 2002 in numbers.

It's also possible that Strategic Vision and EPIC were being hard on their own parties to fire them up.
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Matrix:
Economic score: +5.03
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Your score pegs you as economically capitalist and socially centrist.
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MSUfan
Jtfdem
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« Reply #17 on: April 14, 2006, 04:31:09 pm »
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DeVos will do well in rural michigan and the western part of michigan. Granholm will have to pull out her base in Detroit, Ann Arbor, and Flint. I think the election will come down to mid-michigan. Bay City, Midland, Saginaw will be the deciding factor who wins. Granholm will need a 55%+ in this area.
It would not hurt granholm to do well in in the UP though.
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Nym90
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« Reply #18 on: April 15, 2006, 08:07:46 pm »
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This one will probably be close, but I think Granholm will pull through.
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