scenario: islamists overthrow pakistan's govt...
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  scenario: islamists overthrow pakistan's govt...
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Author Topic: scenario: islamists overthrow pakistan's govt...  (Read 1044 times)
WalterMitty
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« on: April 12, 2006, 09:51:40 AM »

...what happens to the nuclear arsenal?

does the us get involved?

discuss.
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WMS
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1 on: April 12, 2006, 11:42:11 AM »

...what happens to the nuclear arsenal?

does the us get involved?

discuss.

From what I've run across...the answer to your second question answers the first question. Wink Apparently there are measures in place to "deal with" such a situation. Cheesy
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WalterMitty
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« Reply #2 on: April 12, 2006, 12:06:33 PM »

but i have to wonder how practical these 'plans' are
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WMS
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #3 on: April 12, 2006, 12:24:29 PM »

but i have to wonder how practical these 'plans' are
Actually, they predate the Bush Administration from what I've read...it's one of those quiet deals that get arranged between countries. I suspect the Pakistani nuclear arsenal will quickly get whisked away by U.S. Special Forces, working with certain elements of the Pakistani establishment. This is not a new concern...
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #4 on: April 12, 2006, 02:12:38 PM »

...and if anything Pakistan is actually more stable now than it was a few years ago. Not long ago that it was teetering on the edge of becoming a failed state...
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WalterMitty
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« Reply #5 on: April 13, 2006, 07:13:09 AM »

...and if anything Pakistan is actually more stable now than it was a few years ago. Not long ago that it was teetering on the edge of becoming a failed state...

sorry, al, i disagree.

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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #6 on: April 13, 2006, 07:38:46 AM »

...and if anything Pakistan is actually more stable now than it was a few years ago. Not long ago that it was teetering on the edge of becoming a failed state...

sorry, al, i disagree.

Oh don't get me wrong, I'm not calling it stable now, but the situation isn't nearly as bad as a lot of people thought it would be, by now. But some more instability is likely soon, apparently.
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afleitch
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« Reply #7 on: April 13, 2006, 07:46:01 AM »

The border with Afghanistan is incredibly fluid to the extent it wouldn't suprise me if Bin Laden was in North West Pakistan. In Karachi and other populous areas in southern Pakistan it is fairly stable even if the economy is sluggish.
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phk
phknrocket1k
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« Reply #8 on: April 13, 2006, 04:32:52 PM »
« Edited: April 13, 2006, 04:41:50 PM by phknrocket1k »

In Karachi and other populous areas in southern Pakistan it is fairly stable even if the economy is sluggish.

Economic growth is fairly strong for the type of situation Pakistan is in.

Historically, Pakistan's GDP has grown every year since a 1951 recession. Despite this record of sustained growth, Pakistan's economy had, until a few years ago, been characterized as unstable and highly vulnerable to external and internal shocks. However, the economy proved to be unexpectedly resilient in the face of multiple adverse events concentrated into a four-year period —

  • the 1998 Asian financial crisis;
  • economic sanctions — according to Colin Powell, Pakistan was "sanctioned to the eyeballs";
  • global recession;
  • a severe drought — the worst in Pakistan's history, lasting four years;
  • heightened perceptions of risk as a result of military tensions with South Asia — with as many as a million troops on the border, and predictions of impending (potentially nuclear) war; and
  • the post-9/11 military action in neighboring Afghanistan, with a massive influx of refugees from that country.

Despite these adverse events, Pakistan's economy kept growing, and economic growth accelerated towards the end of this period. This resilience has led to a change in perceptions of the economy, with leading international institutions such as the IMF, World Bank, and the ADB praising Pakistan's performance in the face of adversity.

From the 2004-2005 Economic Survey
Growth rate: 8.4% this is the figure being talked about everywhere - making Pakistan the second fastest growing economy in the world, just behind China.

Inflation: 9.3%, compared to 3.9% last year.

Net Govt. Revenue: Rs 451.1 billion during the first nine months of the fiscal year, expected revenue Rs 590 billion against a total expenditure estimated at Rs.1050.4 billion in 2004-05.

Defence expenditure: Rs 194 billion, 7.5 per cent higher than last years. this figure is wrong, as it does not include pensions, and a few other items such as military pensions of over Rs35 billion.

Per capita income: $736, almost 12 per cent higher than last years $657.

GDP: $123 billion.

Literacy rate: 52%. This is a doubtful figure, and was questioned during the press conference - no one believed it. Pakistan’s official definition of literacy is not in line with international norms, hence 52% is extremely optimistic

Unemployment rate: 7.7%

Per capita water availability: 1,005 cubic metres this is very low

Agriculture: 7.5% growth, but 38% of Pakistan's irrigated land is waterlogged and 14% is saline. Agriculture accounts for nearly 23 per cent of Pakistan's GDP and employs 42 per cent of its workforce.

Handouts give to nationalized loss making companies: Rs 94.57 billion, or 16% of all taxes! this is a staggering figure. The major beneficiaries blood sucking leeches on the back of the Pakistani taxpayer are FFC Jordon, TCP, PIA, Pakistan Steel, Railways, Wapda, KESC, Saindak, Utility Stores and others

Debt: $36.62 billion external and approx $73 billion internal. More than 30% of Pakistan’s budget goes to debt servicing.

Exports: * $10.2 billion* in the first 9 months of the current fiscal year.

Imports: $14.5 billion in the first 9 months of the current fiscal year.

Roads: 259,758 Km in March 2005

Health Budget: Rs 38.0 billion.

Electricity Generation Capacity: 19,389 MW both thermal and hydel
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WMS
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #9 on: April 13, 2006, 04:46:25 PM »

  • the post-9/11 military action in neighboring Afghanistan, with a massive influx of refugees from that country.
Wasn't that the other way around? Huh After the fall of the Taliban the Afghan refugees that had been in Pakistan ever since the Soviet Invasion finally started to return home...
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