If Jimmy Carter was re-elected, II

[© tweed]

vote

[Undisguised Sockpuppet]

IT would own alaska.

[MODU]

I voted yes, but it really would have depended on what the Soviet Union did.  They were already having financial problems prior to Reagan coming into power, but the arms race really did accelerate their financial problems greatly.  Carter would not have increased the military as much as Reagan did, so the Soviets might have been proactive locally and worked to maintain their economy and keep dissent to a minimum in their puppet nation states.  If they were able to pull that off, and Carters replacement was also soft militarily, then yes, they could still be in existence today.

[True Democrat]

I think a more peaceful breakup would have occurred around 1993.  By that time, the economy would have been in shambles, and a meeting of all the republics would have been called.  I think a looser union would have been formed (liked the CIS, but a little stronger and still with a president or something).  Also, the communists would be a fairly strong political party today.

[Middle-aged Europe]

No, the Soviet Union did not disappear just because of the outcome of a single U.S. presidential election. History isn't so one-dimensional.

Assuming that Ronald Reagan hadn't been elected President of the United States, John Paul II hadn't been elected Pope (and the Solidarnosc movement in Poland hadn't existed), the Soviets hadn't been invaded Afghanistan, Mikhail Gorbachev hadn't been made General secretary of the CPSU, and Chernobyl hadn't happened, then maybe the Soviet Union would have existed additional five or ten years.

[Cubby]

No it would not. The Soviet Union was already in decline by 1980 and no American Election could have prevented its collapse.

[afleitch]

No it would not. The Soviet Union was already in decline by 1980 and no American Election could have prevented its collapse.

That's true. 'Stagflation' in the 70's didn't help either. Brezhnev's death sealed the deal; the Soviet Union was spiralling into oblivion from the 70's

[dazzleman]

No it would not. The Soviet Union was already in decline by 1980 and no American Election could have prevented its collapse.

That's true. 'Stagflation' in the 70's didn't help either. Brezhnev's death sealed the deal; the Soviet Union was spiralling into oblivion from the 70's

The 'stagflation' that you are talking about was a western economic phenomenon in the 1970s, brought on in part by high oil prices.  The Soviets, being an oil producer, benefited from that which ailed the west in that respect.

The Brezhnev era came to be referred to as "the great stagnation" which was a different thing entirely.  The stagnation of that era was caused by bad political decisions in a command economy.

In retrospect, the pivotal year for the Soviets was 1975.  They made three disastrous decisions that year:

1. They signed the Helsinki Accords, which contained a human rights plank that they had no intention of honoring.  In return for signing that, they got something they already had de facto -- recognition of post World War II boundaries.  The human rights plank in the Helsinki Accords helped ignite unrest in the captive nations, leading directly to Solidarity in Poland.

2. They made a decision to further increase military spending rather than invest in the plants and equipment they needed for their domestic economy.  They decided that on the domestic economy front, they'd have to get by with what they had, since the military clearly needed even more bombs, missiles, etc.  This led productivity to fall further.

3.  Taking advantage of post-Vietnam weakness in the US, they launched an aggressive initiative of 'liberation' movements, starting with Angola and Mozambique in Africa.  They paid the Cubans to intervene there on their behalf, and installed a Soviet brigade in Cuba as compensation.  This initiative expanded across Africa and into Asia during the late 1970s, creating the "arc of crisis" of which Carter's national security advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski spoke.  At first, the west faltered, and the initiative was highly successful.  But it turned out to be a pyrrhic victory, particularly as Ronald Reagan started to provide money to various resistance movements fighting these Soviet-backed initiatives, and particularly as these new Soviet clients impoverished them because they largely adopted the backward and logicless Soviet economic system.

Still, with all this, the Soviets may not have collapsed had there been a weak administration like Carter's in power in the US in the 1980s.  Many Republicans were skeptical of Reagan's policy toward the Soviets, as well as Democrats.  But I do think Reagan helped hasten the Soviet collapse.

Whether they'd still be around now with Peanuts as president rather than Reagan is something that can't really be answered at this point.

[Jake]

I doubt, though I'd be surprised if it didn't exist into the new millenium, mostly for the reasons MODU pointed out, though also because it's unlikely that Gorbachev would've come to power, instead a more hard line leader would've taken power.

[dazzleman]

I doubt, though I'd be surprised if it didn't exist into the new millenium, mostly for the reasons MODU pointed out, though also because it's unlikely that Gorbachev would've come to power, instead a more hard line leader would've taken power.

I think it's absolutely true that the hard line Reagan had taken, as compared with Carter's weak position, convinced the Soviets that they had no other option than to attempt reform, and so they elected Gorbachev.  With a weaker US president, they may very well have calculated differently, and elected another wooden hardliner instead of Gorbachev.

[ATFFL]

There were some mind numbingly stupid proposals during the early 1980s that would have let the Soviet Union survive.  They were offered to counter Reagan's policy of confrontation and support for anti-communsit movements.  Many of them probably would have never seen the light of day if Carter had a second term, however.

What might have saved the Soviet Union is if Mondale had won and some idiot decided these ideas were worth pursuing.

[Gustaf]

I can't believe how many people voted yes on this one. While Reagan did a lot to hasten the collapse of the Soviet Union and Carter would have been less effective, there is no way it could have survived until today. Let's keep in mind that Gorbachev did what he did largely ebcause he had no choice.

[ilikeverin]

I can't believe how many people voted yes on this one. While Reagan did a lot to hasten the collapse of the Soviet Union and Carter would have been less effective, there is no way it could have survived until today. Let's keep in mind that Gorbachev did what he did largely ebcause he had no choice.

Maybe most of them are old enough to remember the end of the Cold War, so they were influenced by the propaganda of the time.  Or perhaps it's because the full extent of Soviet weakness wasn't known for a bit after the end of the Cold War, and no one payed attention because they were too busy celebrating.

[Jake]

I can't believe how many people voted yes on this one. While Reagan did a lot to hasten the collapse of the Soviet Union and Carter would have been less effective, there is no way it could have survived until today. Let's keep in mind that Gorbachev did what he did largely ebcause he had no choice.

Keep in mind that US policy would have five years to make the Russians consider an alternative to Gorbachev if Carter was in office.

[ilikeverin]

I can't believe how many people voted yes on this one. While Reagan did a lot to hasten the collapse of the Soviet Union and Carter would have been less effective, there is no way it could have survived until today. Let's keep in mind that Gorbachev did what he did largely ebcause he had no choice.

Keep in mind that US policy would have five years to make the Russians consider an alternative to Gorbachev if Carter was in office.

Well, they kinda did that with Chernenko and Andropov.

[Gustaf]

I can't believe how many people voted yes on this one. While Reagan did a lot to hasten the collapse of the Soviet Union and Carter would have been less effective, there is no way it could have survived until today. Let's keep in mind that Gorbachev did what he did largely ebcause he had no choice.

Keep in mind that US policy would have five years to make the Russians consider an alternative to Gorbachev if Carter was in office.

Well, as I think Verin points out, Gorbachev came to power in 1985, after Carter would have resigned. But Gorbachev himself is not the point, the Soviet Union was collapsing and Gorbachev figured he could avoid it by opening it up slowly. But even that escalated so much that he couldn't control it. If you look back, some peopel actually predicted this as early as the late 70s, from looking at the state of the country.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Wasn't there some British Conservative politician in the 70s who said the Soviet Union wouldn't survive the entire century and China would turn capitalist? I'll give him credit.

[Jake]

Well, as I think Verin points out, Gorbachev came to power in 1985, after Carter would have resigned. But Gorbachev himself is not the point, the Soviet Union was collapsing and Gorbachev figured he could avoid it by opening it up slowly. But even that escalated so much that he couldn't control it. If you look back, some peopel actually predicted this as early as the late 70s, from looking at the state of the country.

Exactly. Gorbachev excepted that the collapse was inevitable, and he responded by doing all he could to stop it and avoid a bad situation for Russia. Imagine the situation with someone less willing to change in the Kremlin.

Re: Verin's point, Gorbachev was from the Andropov power block. If Andropov doesn't come to power, he doesn't come to power, and looking back, Chernenko was the favored choice to succeed Brezhnev.

[Nym90]

No way. The Soviets were clearly on their way down before Carter left office.

[The Man From G.O.P.]

Yes, jimmy carter is a pathetic f****t of a coward, and go ask him, he still thinks he's president