Rasmussen: AR Gov. Beebe (D) 47%, Hutchison (R) 36%

[Adlai Stevenson]

April 15, 2006--Democrat Mike Beebe leads Asa Hutchinson (R) by 11 points in the race to succeed Mike Huckabee as Governor of Arkansas.

Beebe currently earns support for 47% of the state's Likely Voters while Hutchinson attracts 36% support. A month ago, Beebe led by ten points. In January, he held a six-point lead.

While support for Attorney General Beebe has remained stable in all three election polls we've conducted in the state, Hutchinson's support has fallen by 2 percentage points a month.

Arkansas voters are fortunate to have two fairly popular candidates for Governor (in contrast to voters in, say, Illinois). Beebe is viewed favorably by 65%, Hutchinson by 59%. For both men, that's a slight improvement over the past month.

Senator Hillary Clinton, formerly the First Lady of Arkansas, is is viewed favorably by 51% of Arkansas voters. Nationally, Clinton remains a polarizing figure with roughly equal numbers holding a favorable or unfavorable opinion.

Term limited Governor Mike Huckabee (R) enjoys a 60% Job Approval Rating in the state.

Fifty-four percent (54%) of Arkansas voters believe it is too easy for a woman to get an abortion. Eighteen percent (18%) believe it is too hard. Sixty-nine percent (69%) believe abortion is morally wrong most of the time and half (50%) favor a law that would ban abortion except when the life of the mother is at stake.

Seventy-two percent (72%) of Arkansas voters believe that most politicians will change their position on a key issue in exchange for a campaign contribution. Fifty-five percent (55%) believe elections are fair to voters while 23% favor public funding of campaigns.

The rolling average of the last three Rasmussen Reports election polls in Arkansas shows Beebe ahead 47% to 38%.

[Gabu]

Beebe is looking pretty good at the moment, I must say.

[Q]

Beebe is looking pretty good at the moment, I must say.

That's General Beebe to you.

[Grad Students are the Worst]

Senator Hillary Clinton, formerly the First Lady of Arkansas, is is viewed favorably by 51% of Arkansas voters. Nationally, Clinton remains a polarizing figure with roughly equal numbers holding a favorable or unfavorable opinion.

?!?

[Adlai Stevenson]

I think its interesting; people in Arkansas respect Hillary rather than like her.  When she was First Lady there for all those years, people must feel in some way still connected to her as they do to Bill.

[Ben.]

April 15, 2006--Democrat Mike Beebe leads Asa Hutchinson (R) by 11 points in the race to succeed Mike Huckabee as Governor of Arkansas.

Beebe currently earns support for 47% of the state's Likely Voters while Hutchinson attracts 36% support. A month ago, Beebe led by ten points. In January, he held a six-point lead.

While support for Attorney General Beebe has remained stable in all three election polls we've conducted in the state, Hutchinson's support has fallen by 2 percentage points a month.

Arkansas voters are fortunate to have two fairly popular candidates for Governor (in contrast to voters in, say, Illinois). Beebe is viewed favorably by 65%, Hutchinson by 59%. For both men, that's a slight improvement over the past month.

Senator Hillary Clinton, formerly the First Lady of Arkansas, is is viewed favorably by 51% of Arkansas voters. Nationally, Clinton remains a polarizing figure with roughly equal numbers holding a favorable or unfavorable opinion.

Term limited Governor Mike Huckabee (R) enjoys a 60% Job Approval Rating in the state.

Fifty-four percent (54%) of Arkansas voters believe it is too easy for a woman to get an abortion. Eighteen percent (18%) believe it is too hard. Sixty-nine percent (69%) believe abortion is morally wrong most of the time and half (50%) favor a law that would ban abortion except when the life of the mother is at stake.

Seventy-two percent (72%) of Arkansas voters believe that most politicians will change their position on a key issue in exchange for a campaign contribution. Fifty-five percent (55%) believe elections are fair to voters while 23% favor public funding of campaigns.

The rolling average of the last three Rasmussen Reports election polls in Arkansas shows Beebe ahead 47% to 38%.

mmm... Arkansas, I love that place

[Democratic Hawk]

I think Arkansas is one of those states, I'd feel very much at home in. Good numbers for Beebe

Dave

[ian]

It's a screw-up.

[Grad Students are the Worst]

It's a screw-up.

Hmm?

[ian]

It's a screw-up.

Hmm?

Well, if you're hmm?ing because of my staunch support of Rasmussen, then I admit that he's been pseudo-screwing up lately.
But if you're hmm?ing as to the reference of my comment and it's three-word vagueness, Rasmussen blipped.  I doubt Beebe's up at all, much less by 11 points or whatever it was.

[Nym90]

If Hillary does truly have a 51 percent favorable rating in Arkansas, and this is not merely a statistical outlier or error, that would seem to be evidence that she is electable nationwide.

Granted, the home state factor from her husband helps her rating there I'm sure, but it's still Arkansas that we're talking about, hardly a must win state for a Democrat.

[Smash255]

If Hillary does truly have a 51 percent favorable rating in Arkansas, and this is not merely a statistical outlier or error, that would seem to be evidence that she is electable nationwide.

Granted, the home state factor from her husband helps her rating there I'm sure, but it's still Arkansas that we're talking about, hardly a must win state for a Democrat.

Could partly be a Bush factor also.  With Bush's approval in last months SUSA poll 34% in Arkansas it could make them long for the days of Clinton and like any Clinton as a result.

[Nym90]

If Hillary does truly have a 51 percent favorable rating in Arkansas, and this is not merely a statistical outlier or error, that would seem to be evidence that she is electable nationwide.

Granted, the home state factor from her husband helps her rating there I'm sure, but it's still Arkansas that we're talking about, hardly a must win state for a Democrat.

Could partly be a Bush factor also.  With Bush's approval in last months SUSA poll 34% in Arkansas it could make them long for the days of Clinton and like any Clinton as a result.

True. And if Bush's approval rating in Arkansas really is 34 percent, the Republicans are in some serious trouble.

[Yates]

Beebe is looking pretty good at the moment, I must say.

[jokerman]

It's a screw-up.

Hmm?

Well, if you're hmm?ing because of my staunch support of Rasmussen, then I admit that he's been pseudo-screwing up lately.
But if you're hmm?ing as to the reference of my comment and it's three-word vagueness, Rasmussen blipped.  I doubt Beebe's up at all, much less by 11 points or whatever it was.

You got anything to back that up?

Like I said, Beebe is doing great with conservative Democrats and independent voters, playing the big three, economics, education, and healthcare.  It's a winning combination for Arkansas Democrats who don't screw up like the national party and complain about social issues.

[ian]

It's a screw-up.

Hmm?

Well, if you're hmm?ing because of my staunch support of Rasmussen, then I admit that he's been pseudo-screwing up lately.
But if you're hmm?ing as to the reference of my comment and it's three-word vagueness, Rasmussen blipped.  I doubt Beebe's up at all, much less by 11 points or whatever it was.

You got anything to back that up?

Like I said, Beebe is doing great with conservative Democrats and independent voters, playing the big three, economics, education, and healthcare.  It's a winning combination for Arkansas Democrats who don't screw up like the national party and complain about social issues.

Well, the last howevermany polls taken about this race don't have him up nearly that much.

[Gabu]

Well, the last howevermany polls taken about this race don't have him up nearly that much.

Not really.  Here are some recent polls:

November 3: Beebe +7
December 9: Beebe +5
January 18: Beebe +6
February 13: Beebe +10

All of these are perfectly in line with the result of Beebe +11, if you accept the idea that Beebe has the momentum at the moment.  In fact, there has only been one single poll out of Arkansas that showed the race to be very close, and even then it was Beebe +1.

I see no reason to believe that every single poll out of Arkansas has been wrong.

[Gustaf]

I think it's fairly obvious that Democrats are favoured in state-wide races in Arkansas and with Beebe being a strong candidate there is no reason why the normal lean of the state wouldn't give it to the Democrats. The real question is whether this hurts Huckabee's chances at the presidency or not?