Well, the last howevermany polls taken about this race don't have him up nearly that much.
Not really. Here are some recent polls:
November 3: Beebe +7
December 9: Beebe +5
January 18: Beebe +6
February 13: Beebe +10
All of these are perfectly in line with the result of Beebe +11, if you accept the idea that Beebe has the momentum at the moment. In fact, there has only been
one single poll out of Arkansas that showed the race to be very close, and even then it was Beebe +1.
I see no reason to believe that every single poll out of Arkansas has been wrong.