English Local Elections 2006

[yorkshiredave]

Few comments on the West Yorkshire map:

Tories only hold one seat at Westminster - 21 Shipley. Map clearly highlights the seats that the Tories should be looking to pick up at the next GE.

5 Calder Valley and 6 Colne Valley, Labour seem to be shut out at the 2006 Locals. Seem to remember the local tories lost their candidates in both these seats in the run upto the 2005 election, the fallout from this may have had an adverse effect on the 2005 result. In future GE these should be first tory gains.  

12 Keighley includes true blue wards like Ilkley in the North and the 3 Keighley town wards which were won by Labour in 2006 (and BNP defeated in recent byelection!). Labour may struggle to hold, especially if local MP Ann Cryer stands down at next GE.

The 4 seats covering North Leeds were all Conservative prior to '97. 20 Pudsey and 8 Elmet tories now lead in local election votes. However labour majority in both seats held up well in 2005. With tory strongholds in both seats, they should be aiming to win both in any future GE.

16 Leeds NW - 3 way marginal. Boundary changes shown below have moved  LD/Lab voters out of seat from old Headingley Ward full of students. Should help tories in future.

15 Leeds North East. Boundary changes haven't helped tories. Ward 30 Roundhay gained inner city bits while losing tory voters to the North of the ring road. Also changing demographics in the Seat, may now make this harder to win back for the tories.

22 Wakefield and 7 Dewsbury have changed significantly due to boundary changes, Dewsbury especially has gained conservative wards. In both seats tories were ahead of labour in 2006 votes. If tories start to again pick up votes from skilled manual workers could go blue in GE.

Sad to see pockets of the brown BNP in W Yorks, now have councillors on 4 of the 5 councils. Only Wakefield BNP free.  
  

[afleitch]

Welcome yorkshiredave

Excellent post. Dewsbury, I agree in particular looks more promising on the ground than on paper.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

5 Calder Valley and 6 Colne Valley, Labour seem to be shut out at the 2006 Locals.

Yes, but they were in the 2004 ones as well (with the exception of the 1st seat in Crosland Moor & Netherton; held by a Labour counciller with a big personal vote). Labour weren't far off from gaining Calder ward from the LibDems (who were saved only by a rising Green vote) though, which would have been amusing as that ward includes the HQ of the ALDC.
A lot of people who vote LibDem locally vote Labour nationally in those areas though.

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Might have done, but neither of the replacement candidates were especially bad. The Labour vote in Colne Valley (in General Elections at least) is surreally stable these days, btw.

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Yes, but that was true of 2005 as well.  

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It should revert back to marginal status with Cryer gone, but Labour would be suprised to lose it I think. Picked up two seats there this year (West from the BNP, North from the Tories), not that that was a very unusual trend in Bradford MDC (Labour's lead in Bradford West was bigger in the 2006 locals than the 2005 General Election).

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Labour M.P in Pudsey has a big personal vote (probably one of the largest in the country), Elmet is pretty polarised though; Kippax & Methley is as Labour as Wetherby is Tory.

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The two new wards Dewsbury hath gained aren't *that* Tory; Denby Dale is usually Labour in national elections, while the Greenies came very close to gaining Kirkburton. Both wards were in the seat before 1997.
Interestingly it loses Heckmondwike (traditionally had a big working class Tory vote, which seems to have headed BNPward) to Batley.
Labour gained Dewsbury South from the Tories this year, btw.

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Well yes, but that seems quite unlikely at the moment. Neither seat has much of a Tory history either, while the majorities in both aren't small either.

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Not really good, no. On the bright side, the BNP has lost three wards in Bradford MDC this year though, and one in Halifax as well.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

All the Hampshire wards up in 2006:

[Rural Radical]

Al

Could you look at doing the following contests : Crewe & Nantwich, Shrewsbury & Atcham, Chester, Halton, Warrington, Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme.

Thanks

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Al

Could you look at doing the following contests : Crewe & Nantwich, Shrewsbury & Atcham, Chester, Halton, Warrington, Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme.

Thanks

But of course

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Warrington is first:

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Next up is Stoke/NUL... home to some genuinely insane local politics and equally insane local voting patterns...



The BNP got a lot of attention again; but their vote seems to have shifted out from Longton (they won Longton North in 2003 and 2004 and had they pulled it off this year, all three councillers would have been BNP. Luckily it didn't happen) and out to the eastern suburbs.
That said... they wouldn't have won Abbey Green (no.1) were it not for the stupid/insane decision of the sitting Labour counciller to defect to some Trot group just before polling day. He polled about 500 votes, the official Labour candidate polled about 600 and the BNP about 700. Vote Trot, get BNP...
Also interesting to see the Stoke Indies (who used to be the right-wing of Stoke Labour) revive again. Probably helps being in opposition.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

SABC now...



The only ward to change hands was Condover where a centrist Indie retired (Sutton & Reabrook and Monkmoor changed hands in by-elections in 2005). Had Castlefields & Quarry been up Labour would likely have gained it (it's a polarised marginal and the Tory end of the ward is pissed off at the council for shutting down a leisure centre) though.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Cheshire + Halton now...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

% vote for Labour in the old Met.Co. of West Yorkshire...



The overall pattern is o/c more interesting than the %'s, although you have to be careful with some wards in Kirklees and Calderdale.

Doesn't that dark red splash in central Bradford look lovely?

[Rural Radical]

Warrington is first:

Interesting to see how weak Labour perform  in Southern Warrington.

The Blue ward in the North-East is Culcheth. A rural Ward based on the small town of College.

Thanks for the Map

[Rural Radical]

Next up is Stoke/NUL... home to some genuinely insane local politics and equally insane local voting patterns...



The BNP got a lot of attention again; but their vote seems to have shifted out from Longton (they won Longton North in 2003 and 2004 and had they pulled it off this year, all three councillers would have been BNP. Luckily it didn't happen) and out to the eastern suburbs.
That said... they wouldn't have won Abbey Green (no.1) were it not for the stupid/insane decision of the sitting Labour counciller to defect to some Trot group just before polling day. He polled about 500 votes, the official Labour candidate polled about 600 and the BNP about 700. Vote Trot, get BNP...
Also interesting to see the Stoke Indies (who used to be the right-wing of Stoke Labour) revive again. Probably helps being in opposition.

A bit like 1983. Vote SDP and get a Tory Mp. Or Shrewsbury last year vote for a Lib Dem and a Tory Mp.

About the Potteries though. I cant believe there is a Right Wing split in The Labour Party there (A Left Wing I can Understand).
Good to see Madeley has Labour Councillors.

[Rural Radical]

SABC now...



The only ward to change hands was Condover where a centrist Indie retired (Sutton & Reabrook and Monkmoor changed hands in by-elections in 2005). Had Castlefields & Quarry been up Labour would likely have gained it (it's a polarised marginal and the Tory end of the ward is pissed off at the council for shutting down a leisure centre) though.

Yes the Tory strength has peaked here. I was dissapointed at the results in Harlescott, Battlefields & Heathgates and Monkmoor. Good result for Labour in Sutton & Reabrook (Part of a long term shift in that part of town. Im sure Al will agree with Me.)

[Rural Radical]

Cheshire + Halton now...

Halton. I know Widnes. The North End of term is quite Middle Class really. Though Ditton is more suprising. Runcorn I dont really know.

Is that a Tory WARDin Crewe ?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Interesting to see how weak Labour perform  in Southern Warrington.

Not sure how new that is. Might try checking.

About the Potteries though. I cant believe there is a Right Wing split in The Labour Party there (A Left Wing I can Understand).

It happend a few years ago now (can't recall whether it was before Wolfe was elected Mayor or afterwards... anyway they were by-and-large his supporters) and it's largely about personalities now.

Is that a Tory WARDin Crewe ?

It's the Leighton ward; not sure if it's technically in Crewe or not. Quite middle class, by the look of a map quite suburban as well.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

And now for the various Lancashire districts...



The other brown colour represents another far-right party (the BNP being discredited in Blackburn for a couple of reasons) called the English National Party or England First Party or something similer. Can't recall the exact name.
Note how the ever-insane local election patterns in Burnley BC and Pendle DC realigned themselves *again*
Talking of which, the two BNP seats in Burnley BC were frustratingly close...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

% vote Labour in the former Met.Co. of Tyne & Wear...



Highest % was in Longbenton, lowest was Parklands. They border each other... ('though there's very little built-up area in between the two).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

% vote Labour in Manchester, Salford & Trafford...



Highest % was in the Bradford ward of Manchester (old mining district strangely enough; colliery closed in the '60's), lowest was in one of the rich suburbs in south Trafford. Forget which one.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

And now for Herts...



Some odd results there...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

South Essex now...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The defeated Labour candidate in the Foleshill ward of Coventry is claiming that ten votes in the ward were cast fraudulently as ten people listed as voting on the day were out of the U.K at the time. He lost by six votes.

[Rural Radical]

And now for Herts...



Some odd results there...

The big red area is Stevenage ? What is the Red area in the Bottom Right.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yes, that's Stevenage. Very good result there actually... and the one red ward in the far southeast of the map is Waltham Cross in Broxbourne. It's quite working class and is very similer to the various North Enfield wards just south of it (actually it's more like those wards than the rest of Broxbourne). Being in Broxbourne there's a strong Tory machine there (and IIRC they won the ward in 2004) o/c.