English Local Elections 2006

[Filuwaúrdjan]

We have a new local elections poll! Sadly it's by BPIX (not a member of the British Polling Council... eek...) but I'll take anything right now.

The following figures are for people who live in areas holding local elections this week and who said that they were certain that they will vote in said elections:

Con 35%, Lab 26%, Lib 23%, Oth 16% (inc. 5% for BNP).

These figures are very similer to the ICM poll, with a couple of exceptions that can be explained away by MoE and the presence of a Welsh vote in the ICM poll.

If these polls be accurate (or close to it) we can expect little net change outside London.

BPIX also asked a GE question (C 35%, Lab 32%, Lib 19%) which is practically a carbon copy of another YouGov poll (C 35%, Lab 32%, Lib 18%).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Another local poll... this time by ICM, again, and published in (um...) the Sunday Express. No data on number of people asked etc. or MoE etc.

Con 29%, Lab 27%, Lib 22%, 6% Grn, 4% BNP, 3% UKIP

[Democratic Hawk]

Another local poll... this time by ICM, again, and published in (um...) the Sunday Express. No data on number of people asked etc. or MoE etc.

Con 29%, Lab 27%, Lib 22%, 6% Grn, 4% BNP, 3% UKIP

I hope it is a local elections poll. If it were national, it would be rather worrying

Labour's challenge is to get out its vote but I'm not too worried if the party does encounter some significant losses. Local elections were bad, at times, for Labour during the last Parliament but they did go on to win the 2005 general after all

It's certainly been a bad week for the government , which is sure to be reflected in this Thursday's locals. The question is to what extent, only time will tell

Dave

[afleitch]

Tomorrow is of course 9 year exactly since Labour came to power and Blair became PM. (Un)Happy Birthday

[Harry Hayfield]

Another local poll... this time by ICM, again, and published in (um...) the Sunday Express. No data on number of people asked etc. or MoE etc.

Con 29%, Lab 27%, Lib 22%, 6% Grn, 4% BNP, 3% UKIP

Change on Locals 2002 (as that's when these seats were last contested). Data from Local Government Chronicle

Conservatives 29% (-3%)
Labour 27% (-8%)
Liberal Democrats 22% (-2%)
Green 6% (+3%)
Others 16% (+10%)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Another local poll... this time by ICM, again, and published in (um...) the Sunday Express. No data on number of people asked etc. or MoE etc.

Con 29%, Lab 27%, Lib 22%, 6% Grn, 4% BNP, 3% UKIP

Change on Locals 2002 (as that's when these seats were last contested). Data from Local Government Chronicle

Conservatives 29% (-3%)
Labour 27% (-8%)
Liberal Democrats 22% (-2%)
Green 6% (+3%)
Others 16% (+10%)

Actually, outside London, all wards up have been contested since then. And in the case of the Mets, all seats as well. I wouldn't expect many district results to be very different to 2003 or 2004.

[Peter]

This one amused me, though I would like to firstly point out that I do not know definitively that this is true, though I have been told by a usually reliable source.

The Oxford Labour Party has paired a number of the wards, that is to say it takes all activists out of hopeless wards in the hope of holding various marginal wards. Anyway, Holywell (city centre, student dominated) and Barton & Sandhills (NE Oxford) have been paired. One particular son (studying at Oxford) of a certain high ranking Labour MP is from Holywell and was thusly sent out to Barton.

Supposedly, he was out there a little longer than he expected and nature called. Apparently he used somebody's garden. I doubt the press will report it because its mostly just rumour, and also the reason I'm omitting the name. If you can't guess it, PM me.

In other news, one of the Tory candidates has allegedly committed gross electoral fraud (punishable by up to a year in the clink). I actually think I know the nominee who wished to remain anonymous.

The story has other repurcussions because the Tory is running in Holywell, a highly marginal Green - Lib Dem ward. I have discussed this matter with somebody in the Lib Dems who has stated that should the Tory candidate get more than the margin of victory, then it'll end up in electoral court.

[Democratic Hawk]

If the Conservatives make gains in places, which they ought never to have lost in the first instance, I dare say I can live with that for local elections anyway - given the government's recent woes

A good hiding, to some extent, might be a good thing for Labour

Dave

[Harry Hayfield]

If you fancy having a bit of a flutter on the local elections, might I recommend betfair.com which has the following suggestions for the locals:

Barking and Dagenham: Lab hold 1/12
Birmingham: NOC 1/5
Blackburn with Darwen: NOC 2/9
Bolton: NOC 1/10
Brent: NOC 30/100
Carlisle: Con gain from NOC 2/13
Cheltenham: NOC 1/10
City of Chester: NOC 1/10 (Con gain from NOC and Lib Dem gain from NOC 1/9, Lab gain from NOC 1/5)
Croydon: Con hold 1/10
Ealing: Lab hold 30/100
Eastbourne: Con hold 1/9 (Lib Dem gain from Con 1/10)
Hammersmith and Fulham: Con hold 2/9
Haringey: Lib Dem gain from Lab 1/2
Hillingdon: Con gain from NOC 1/10
Islington: Lib Dem hold 1/100
Leeds: NOC 1/10
Manchester: Lab hold 1/10
Merton: Con gain from Lab 1/3
Norwich: NOC 2/13
Oxford: Lib Dem gain from NOC 1/10
Redbridge: Con hold 1/20
Solihull: Con hold 2/5
Tower Hamlets: Lab loss to NOC 1/5
West Lancashire: Con hold 1/10
Winchester: NOC 1/10
Wirral: NOC 1/10 (Con gain from NOC, Lab gain from NOC, Lib Dem gain from NOC 1/9, Ind gain from NOC 2/7)

[Ben.]

Croydon: Con hold 1/10
Hammersmith and Fulham: Con hold 2/9

Both of those are currently Labour held (Hammersmith and Fulham by a wide margin) - though both are expected to swing strongly to the Tories.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well the day is here. Not much media coverage is likely of these elections (for several reasons already mentioned) and the overall pattern is unlikely to be as clear cut as in London (if there's a pattern at all).
All the same, I hope we'll able to cover them well. I will delete most posts going on about national net seat loss/gain or the BBC's absurd little poll of wards. First and foremost, these are local elections after all.

A note about control; in practice losing a majority often doesn't mean losing control of a council.

Prediction contest time. Predict the largest party (NOT overall control etc) on all the Metropolitan District councils, the following District councils [Norwich, Oxford, Winchester, Amber Valley] and the following Unitary Authorities [Milton Keynes, Bristol, Plymouth, Thurrock, Portsmouth, Southampton and N.E. Lincs].

Please remember that only a third of seats are up in most of those councils.

Have fun

[Peter]

My spies have informed me that the Lib Dems have done very well in a number of the postal vote counts in Oxford, and are even nominally leading in wards where they usually do crap.

I'll predict in the morning.

[Harry Hayfield]

Prediction Competition (Metropolitians)

Barnsley: Independent
Birmingham: Labour / Conservative tie
Bolton: Liberal Democrats
Bradford: Conservatives
Bury: Labour / Conservative tie
Calderdale: Conservative
Coventry: Conservative
Doncaster: Labour
Dudley: Conservative
Gateshead: Liberal Democrats
Kirklees: Liberal Democrats / Conservative tie
Knowsley: Labour
Leeds: Liberal Democrats
Liverpool: Liberal Democrats
Manchester: Liberal Democrats
Newcastle upon Tyne : Liberal Democrats
North Tyneside: Conservatives
Oldham: Liberal Democrats
Rochdale: Liberal Democrats
Rotherham: Labour
Salford: Labour
Sandwell: Labour
Sefton: Liberal Democrats
Sheffield: Liberal Democrats
Solihull: Liberal Democrats / Conservative tie
South Tyneside: Labour
St. Helens: Liberal Democrats
Stockport: Liberal Democrats
Sunderland: Labour
Tameside: Labour
Trafford: Conservatives
Wakefield: Labour
Walsall: Conservatives
Wigan: Independents
Wirral: Liberal Democrats
Wolverhampton: Conservatives

[Harry Hayfield]

Prediction Competition (District Councils)
Norwich: Liberal Democrats
Oxford: Liberal Democrats / Green tie
Winchester: Conservatives
Amber Valley: Conservatives

Prediction Competition (Unitaries)
Milton Keynes: Liberal Democrats
Bristol: Liberal Democrats
Plymouth: Labour / Conservative tie
Thurrock: Conservatives
Portsmouth: Liberal Democrat / Conservative tie
Southampton: Liberal Democrat / Conservative tie
North East Lincolnshire: Liberal Democrat

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Been some "fun" goings on in Bradford... Labour have accused the LibDems of "treating" in one of the Keighley wards (and the police are actually looking into it as well), the LibDems are complaining about the Tories getting up to dodgy stuff in Bowling & Barkerend (three-way marginal ward where the LibDems and Tories are battling out for the Asian vote; the white vote will go to the white Labour candidate. This is the ward in which the BNP are running a suspected Asian) and there are allegations that the Tories are trying to hang onto via theft, a seat in Great Horton were a vacancy has been caused by the conviction of a dodgy Asian Tory counciller for killing someone in a hit-and-run accident. He only won in the first place because of probable fraud.

Meanwhile the CPS has yet to decide on whether or not to bring charges against the two Tories (since thrown out of the Tory group) who tried to rig Bradford West in the General Election. They are Jamshed Khan (City) and Reis Khan (Manningham) and IMO they are as guilty as hell.

[Harry Hayfield]

Been some "fun" goings on in Bradford... Labour have accused the LibDems of "treating" in one of the Keighley wards (and the police are actually looking into it as well), the LibDems are complaining about the Tories getting up to dodgy stuff in Bowling & Barkerend (three-way marginal ward where the LibDems and Tories are battling out for the Asian vote; the white vote will go to the white Labour candidate. This is the ward in which the BNP are running a suspected Asian) and there are allegations that the Tories are trying to hang onto via theft, a seat in Great Horton were a vacancy has been caused by the conviction of a dodgy Asian Tory counciller for killing someone in a hit-and-run accident. He only won in the first place because of probable fraud.

Meanwhile the CPS has yet to decide on whether or not to bring charges against the two Tories (since thrown out of the Tory group) who tried to rig Bradford West in the General Election. They are Jamshed Khan (City) and Reis Khan (Manningham) and IMO they are as guilty as hell.

In other words, are we likely to hear that Bradford will not declare until the middle of July?

[afleitch]

Meanwhile the CPS has yet to decide on whether or not to bring charges against the two Tories (since thrown out of the Tory group) who tried to rig Bradford West in the General Election. They are Jamshed Khan (City) and Reis Khan (Manningham) and IMO they are as guilty as hell.

Yes. I agree. I'll refrain from commenting on their..ethnic/religious background likewise with the 6 Labour councillors in Birmingham from 2004 or the fact that 4000 votes in Slough will probably be determined by a few clan leaders reported in the Times yesterday. Luckily things are changing, but every party is guilty as sin when it comes to trying to rig elections and postal votes.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I'll refrain from commenting on their..ethnic/religious background

Why? It happens to be very important; were it not for the Biridari system, this sort of thing would not be possible. The influence of the Biridaris has been declining over time though; young Muslims want nothing to do with it.

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Five (one guy was cleared) although plenty more people in Brum, from all parties, got up to much dodgyness in 2004.

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This has little to do with parties.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Prediction Competition... I expect to be wrong about a few, but there you go.

*Remember: this is for largest party NOT control. Control is politics, not elections*

Oh and do please note that local authorities do not match town or city boundaries as they [L.A. boundaries, not towns etc] were drawn by power-crazed idiots in 1973.

Edited after checking which seats are up.

Barnsley: Labour
Birmingham: ooh... Labour I think. Could be close though.
Bolton: Not sure.
Bradford: Uncertain. The Tories are likely to lose seats in inner Bradford gained via Biradaris, but the question is who to? Manningham is tipped to revert to type and go red, but no one is entirely sure about the others.
Bury: Labour
Calderdale: Tories... I think
Coventry: Tories
Doncaster: Labour
Dudley: Tories
Gateshead: Labour
Kirklees: No idea. Kirklees local politics is insane even by West Riding standards.
Knowsley: Labour
Leeds: Labour
Liverpool: "LibDems"
Manchester: Labour
Newcastle upon Tyne : LibDems
North Tyneside: Not sure, but doesn't matter as it's a Mayoral authority now. Mayor is Labour.
Oldham: Labour
Rochdale: LibDems
Rotherham: Labour
Salford: Labour
Sandwell: Labour
Sefton: LibDems
Sheffield: Labour
Solihull: Tories
South Tyneside: Labour
St. Helens: Labour
Stockport: LibDems
Sunderland: Labour
Tameside: Labour
Trafford: Tories
Wakefield: Labour
Walsall: Tories
Wigan: Labour
Wirral: God knows... I certainly don't...
Wolverhampton: Labour

Norwich: Probably LibDems
Oxford: LibDems
Winchester: Tories
Amber Valley: Tories (checked which seats are up)

Milton Keynes: LibDems
Bristol: LibDems
Plymouth: Labour
Thurrock: Don't know
Portsmouth: Tories
Southampton: Tories
North East Lincolnshire: Labour... although if the Conlibs count as one party (and they might as well here)... sad to say this but...

[Harry Hayfield]

Nice map from The Times if anyone is interested

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Nice map, but innaccurate in places; Coventry is already under Tory control (technically a majority of 0, but it int a minority administration), Portsmouth isn't, Stoke has a Labour Mayor and there's a Labour majority on the council (as of 2004 at least), Hartlepool isn't NOC; it has an Indie (well... Ind Lab really...) Mayor and a Labour majority on the council (perhaps they should have tried stripes?)... and the boundaries for Herefordshire and Worcestershire are those seen before the big shakeup there almost a decade ago.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Turnout is quite good apparently

[Filuwaúrdjan]

BBC have a list of "key declarations"...

Rochdale, Camden, Birmingham, Tower Hamlets, Barking & Dagenham, Hull, Hammersmith & Fulham

I'm suprised that Lambeth has been ignored, and at the inclusion of Rochdale... actually... the latter is worrying...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It's turned 5 o'clock. You all know why that be important...

[jerusalemcar5]

Reuters predicts significant Conservative gains and Labour failure.  If the Labour party would condemn the Iraq war and pull out British troops, I would support them.  I read about all their scandals.  It looks quite bad for them.

The BBC site has an excellent updating map.  I can't wait for the results.