London Borough Elections 2006

[Ben.]

Slightly off topic; There's a rumour flying round that Ken Livingstone might run in Bethnal Green & Bow next General Election (or in a by-election...).

Without GG in the mix he could probably win, he has a great deal of capital within London's Muslim community, and a run in BGB at the next election might explain why he has been so assiduously courting them.

On top of all this I think Livingston would find a third race for Mayor pretty tough, not that he probably wouldn’t win, but it might well be far more competitive than either of the last two races.

All that said, Labour will probably lose control of TH Borough on May 4th, caught in a pincer between Respect and the Tories – reflecting the same challenge that seems to have materialised for Labour in traditionally “safe” boroughs like Brent and Camden (only there the LibDem fulfil the role of “respect” in challenging Labour from the left and amongst Muslim voters).   

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Without GG in the mix he could probably win

I think he'd win pretty easily anyway; he won all but one ward in the constituency in 2004 (when Labour were doing far, far worse in Tower Hamlets than now; there's actually been a reasonable recovery from the utter depths of a few years ago) after all.

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That does seem to be the main reason why the rumours have been spreading. He did the same with the Irish community before running in Brent East back in the '80's.
Interestingly enough, if the rumours are true then it'll be the fifth constituency he's run in over his long career; he represented Norwood, then a safe seat the name of which I've forgotton, and finally Paddington on the GLC, and Brent East at Westminster from 1987 until 2001.

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Everyone thought that 2004 would be close; it wasn't in the end. For some reason he's consistantly underestimated in polls these days.

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For a couple of reasons I think there's a 50/50 chance of the majority staying (although even if the majority is lost, Labour will still in all likelyhood end up running the council).

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Not really what's happening in Tower Hamlets though; while Labour will lose seats in heavily Bangladeshi wards to Respect, and will lose some seats in heavily Yuppy infected wards to the Tories, they've got a good chance to make some gains of the LibDems in other areas (East India & Lansbury seems the most likely, but Mile End & Globetown and Bow West also look possible). Some wards might split three way.

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Well I wouldn't call either Tower Hamlets or Brent traditionally safe boroughs in local elections (Tower Hamlets was up until race entered it's politics in the late '70's. Demographic changes certainly didn't help either. I miss the old East End, with the Docks, the Jews and all that, while Labour only regained Brent in 1998 I think...), but Camden (suprisingly given it's demographics and the electoral history of the three old boroughs that formed it) has been. O/c in Brent the Tories are under a lot of yellow pressure as well.

[Peter]

Interestingly enough, if the rumours are true then it'll be the fifth constituency he's run in over his long career; he represented Norwood, then a safe seat the name of which I've forgotton, and finally Paddington on the GLC, and Brent East at Westminster from 1987 until 2001.

I believe you are searching for Hackney North and Stoke Newington. I'm pretty sure Norwood was lost to the Tories after he moved to Hackney as well. He seems to have an impeccable sense of timing with such things (given that Brent East fell only two years after he left, though obviously under very different circumstances).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I believe you are searching for Hackney North and Stoke Newington.

That's the one. The seat was smaller back then o/c (it gained a lot from the abolished Hackney Central in 1983).

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It was. Amusingly it actually swung *to* the Tories in 1981; the Labour candidate was a certain Ted Knight and Lambeth's rates had just been jacked up.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

More developments in Tower Hamlets; George Galloway is in trouble for not listing a libel fighting-fund in his register of members interests. And the inevitable accusations of fraud have been raised in the borough...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yet more developments in Tower Hamlets... some fun court action today over the disqualifaction of three Respect candidates in St Katherines & Wapping. The Court of Appeal hath decided to over turn the decision of the High Court, and let the election in that ward go ahead regardless.

[Michael Z]

The Lib Dems seem to be the only ones campaigning around here, but their campaign has been so negative that I'm not even going to consider voting for them. Chances are I'll be voting Green on Thursday.

[Harry Hayfield]

At the end of the local elections in 2002 for London, the total number of councillors and councils won by each party was:

Labour 869 councillors (winning 15 councils)
Conservatives 660 councillors (winning 8 councils)
Liberal Democrats 310 councillors (winning 3 councils)
Ratepayers 25 councillors
Independent 4 councillors
Local Education Action by Parents (LEAP) 1 councillor
Christian Democrats 1 councillor
Green 1 councillor
No Overall Control 6 councils

[Harry Hayfield]

At the end of the local elections in 2002 for London, the total number of councillors and councils won by each party was:

Labour 869 councillors (winning 15 councils)
Conservatives 660 councillors (winning 8 councils)
Liberal Democrats 310 councillors (winning 3 councils)
Ratepayers 25 councillors
Independent 4 councillors
Local Education Action by Parents (LEAP) 1 councillor
Christian Democrats 1 councillor
Green 1 councillor
No Overall Control 6 councils

And the vote share was:

Conservatives 34%
Labour 34%
Liberal Democrats 21%
Green 6%
Independent 1%
Others 4%

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Obviously most media coverage will be on London. As such, national rubbishy things will be more tolerate here than the other thread.

Prediction contest time!

Predict the largest party (NOT control etc) of every London borough.

Have fun

[Ben.]

Obviously most media coverage will be on London. As such, national rubbishy things will be more tolerate here than the other thread.

Prediction contest time!

Predict the largest party (NOT control etc) of every London borough.

Have fun

Well, I made my predictions a little while back, but I think things are now looking a good deal worse for Labour (particularly in London), so I’ll offer a brief update…

Barnet: Conservatives  (CON Hold.)

Barking and Dagenham: Labour (LAB Hold.)*

Bexley: Conservatives (CON Gain.)

Brent: No Idea! (NOC ‘Gain’.)

Bromley: Conservative (CON Hold.)

Camden: Labour, probably (NOC ‘Gain’.)

Croydon: Conservatives (CON Gain.)

Ealing: Labour, but the gap will narrow (LAB Hold.)

Enfield: Conservatives (CON Hold.)

Greenwich: Labour (LAB Hold.)

Hammersmith & Fulham: Conservatives (CON Gain.)

Hackney: Labour (LAB Hold.)

Harrow: Conservatives (CON Gain.)

Havering: Conservatives, but firmly NOC  (NOC ‘Hold’.)

Hounslow: Conservatives (CON Gain.)

Hillingdon: Conservatives (CON Gain.)

Haringey: Labour, lots more LDs and maybe a few Tories (LAB Hold.)

Islington: LibDem ((LibDem Hold.)

Kensington: Conservatives (CON Hold.)

Kingston: LibDem, but Tories seem hopeful (LibDem Hold.)

Lewisham: Labour (LAB Hold)

Lambeth: LibDems, still close though (LibDem Gain.)

Merton: Conservatives (CON Gain.)

Newham: Labour (LAB Hold.)

Redbridge: Conservatives (CON Hold.)

Richmond: Conservatives, but the LibDems still have a shot (CON Hold.)

Sutton: LibDems, but Tories seem boyant (LibDem Hold.)

Southwark: LibDems (LibDem gain.)

Tower Hamlets: Labour, but gains for Respect and the Tories (NOC ‘gain’).

Westminster:  Conservatives (CON Hold.)

Wandsworth: Conservatives, possibility of a Labour wipe-out (Con Hold).

Waltham Forest: Labour (NOC ‘Hold’.)

Totals:
Conservatives: 15 (+7)
Labour: 7 (-7)
LibDem: 5 (+2)
NOC: 5 (-1)

…I think perhaps the most interesting contest is going to be between the Tories and the LibDem in the southwest of London, while the LibDems could retake Richmond, the Tories seem to entertain, not unrealistic, hopes of challenging the big LibDem majorities in Sutton and Kingston.   

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Turnout is good in Lambeth

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Not long till the polls close. Turnout still good (for local elections) apparently. Been some odd debates here and there about who this does or does not favour, largely based on wishful thinking from all sides. Please don't repeat that here.

Predictions for *argest party*in each London borough...

Barnet: Tories
Barking & Dagenham: Labour
Bexley: Tories
Brent: Tories
Bromley: Tories
Camden: Labour
Croydon: Tories
Ealing: Labour
Enfield: Tories
Greenwich: Labour
Hammersmith & Fulham: Tories
Hackney: Labour
Harrow: Tories
Havering: Tories
Hounslow: Labour
Hillingdon: Tories
Haringey: Labour... I think...
Islington: LibDems
Kensington & Chelsea: Tories
Kingston: Tories
Lewisham: Labour
Lambeth... er... um... Labour?
Merton: Tories
Newham: Labour
Redbridge: Tories
Richmond: LibDems
Sutton: LibDems
Southwark: LibDems
Tower Hamlets: probably Labour (what makes this borough so hard to judge, is the fact that in recent elections, Labour support has been roughly the same in all wards in the borough)
Westminster: Tories
Wandsworth: Tories
Waltham Forest: Labour

As for *control*... well... I've really no idea...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Polls have closed.

I feel pessimistic. This isn't based on accurate information, gut feeling or anything. Bah.

[afleitch]

I think Labour will be seriously bloodied in London, but they should hold up better elsewhere. Seems to have been a high, by locals standards, turnout.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I think Labour will be seriously bloodied in London, but they should hold up better elsewhere. Seems to have been a high, by locals standards, turnout.

The noises I've heard out of London are *grim*...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Apparently Tower Hamlets is extremely bad for Labour

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Labour have said that the BNP will take 5 or 6 seats in Barking & Dagenham.

[Ben.]

Labour have said that the BNP will take 5 or 6 seats in Barking & Dagenham.

How many BNP candidates where there?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Labour have said that the BNP will take 5 or 6 seats in Barking & Dagenham.

How many BNP candidates where there?

13 IIRC

A made a wee map of far right candidates; it's near the top of the thread

[Ben.]

Labour have said that the BNP will take 5 or 6 seats in Barking & Dagenham.

How many BNP candidates where there?

13 IIRC

A made a wee map of far right candidates; it's near the top of the thread

Thanks Al... a worrying result indeed

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Cruddas says that the BNP may take all 13 seats

[Ben.]

Cruddas says that the BNP may take all 13 seats

Oh dear… reports on the BBC of angry scenes in wards where voters found no BNP candidates on the ballot paper, lots of spoilt ballot papers with BNP writ large on them some angry voters, I fear its something that all the main parties have got to tackle, quickly.   

[afleitch]

Unconfirmed reports that Respect will be the largest party in Tower Hamlets according to SKY

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The far right rises...