Kerry expanding into Virginia
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Author Topic: Kerry expanding into Virginia  (Read 10658 times)
Lunar
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« on: May 28, 2004, 12:36:43 PM »
« edited: May 28, 2004, 12:39:39 PM by Lunar »

http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/05/28/kerry.ads.ap/index.html

John Kerry will make a push into Republican-leaning Virginia when he launches new television commercials next week, the start of a $17 million monthlong ad campaign that also targets black and Hispanic audiences.

A mere probe into the Virginian populace to see how receptive it is?  Part of a feint to register the Bush campaign's reaction? Or part of a larger strategy?  Certainly his campaign isn't following what you would expect.
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Wakie
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« Reply #1 on: May 28, 2004, 12:53:15 PM »

Bill Clinton won Virginia in 1992 and they have a Democratic Gov who has been mentioned as a possible VP.

If nothing else an aggressive push in VA will force push to spend some money to counter it.
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #2 on: May 28, 2004, 12:56:45 PM »
« Edited: May 28, 2004, 01:08:02 PM by The Vorlon »

(I am making both of these up BTW)

The Fox News/New York Post version of events...

"Desperate at seeing once safe Democratic states such as Michigan and New Jersey suddenly tighten, the Kerry camp today adopted a last gasp "hail Mary" strategy to try to bring additional states into play by targeting Virginia, and to create the illusion of movement to bolster sagging Democratic spirits regarding their listless candidate...."

The CNN/CBS version of events.....

"Flush with cash from millions of small doners, and striking to capitilize on plummeting Bush approval ratings (as shown by a new CBS news poll showing Bush down 82% to 17% among delegates to the Democratic National Convention) The Kerry campaign seeks to expand it's already commanding electoral college lead by attacking once safe GOP strongholds such as Virginia...."

But seriously....

Both sides have piles of cash, they can afford a few "recon" missions into hostile territory to see if there are any targets of opportunity.

I expect the GOP will do the same in New Jersey.

If things go according to form we can expect a couple "leaked" polls in the next week - one from a GOP firm showing Bush within 3% in New Jersey, and one from a Democratic firm showing Kerry within 4% in Virginia.

To be followed shortly by fundrasing letters saying...

"A recent poll shows [insert field 1] trails [insert field 2] by just [insert field 3%] despite spending almost no money in the state.

With your kind and much needed donation of just [insert field 4] we can defeat [insert field 2] and go on to victory in November...



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Nym90
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« Reply #3 on: May 28, 2004, 01:00:04 PM »

Clinton didn't win Virginia in 1992.
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Reds4
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« Reply #4 on: May 28, 2004, 01:08:44 PM »

Clinton lost VA by a little over 4% in 92 and a little less than 2% in 96. Bush should win VA unless Kerry wins the popular vote overall by 8% or so and then it would probably go to Kerry.
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© tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #5 on: May 28, 2004, 01:37:59 PM »

Kerry won't win Virginia.  My guess is that Kerry is just playing around right now to see where he has a chance.
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Lunar
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« Reply #6 on: May 28, 2004, 01:43:07 PM »

I suppose it's sort of a valid strategy to keep as many states in play until you find out where the chips fall later in the year.
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WalterMitty
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« Reply #7 on: May 28, 2004, 01:46:42 PM »

my beloved native state would never vote for a man like john kerry.

some folks are reading too much into virginia having a democratic governor.  the previous two gop governors were blips (many thanks go to bill clinton).  virginia has had a long line of democratic governors previous to allen.

if gilmore wouldnt have f'ed up the budget process so much, perhaps a republican would have won in 01.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #8 on: May 28, 2004, 01:49:01 PM »

Kerry is showing ads in VA... why is this news?
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Lunar
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« Reply #9 on: May 28, 2004, 01:54:16 PM »

Because it shows a new strategy for the Kerry campaign.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #10 on: May 28, 2004, 01:57:15 PM »

Because it shows a new strategy for the Kerry campaign.

Not really a *new* strategy is it? It's been obvious for a while that the Dems are targeting the Upper South...
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Lunar
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« Reply #11 on: May 28, 2004, 03:06:20 PM »

I suppose it's a further extension of the Lousiana/Colorado strategy: targeting states that they really shouldn't.
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #12 on: May 28, 2004, 03:15:16 PM »

I suppose it's a further extension of the Lousiana/Colorado strategy: targeting states that they really shouldn't.

A lot of this is "buying" free advertising...

Spend a few hundred $K in strange places, and then get a few million in free and positive coverage as cnn/cbs/abc etc cover how the campaign is on the offensive and targeting gop leaning states, etc, etc..

Smart for Kerry, uses his natural advantages to his best benifit.

Bush might  try it in New Jersey and maybe Maine (he has no hope in Maine, but it's a cheap state to buy media in) if he thought there was a chance of some free media to go along with it.
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jmfcst
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« Reply #13 on: May 28, 2004, 03:19:37 PM »

If Kerry wins VA, he'll be over 350 electoral votes anyway.  Bush will do better in VA than he does nationwide.  VA will not determine this election.

I think five states are going to tell the story of this election:

1st Tier - Bush must hold 2 of the 3: Ohio, Penn, and Florida

2nd Tier - if Bush holds 2 of 3 from Tier 1, then watch: NH & NM.  Winner of both wins election.

3rd Tier - if Bush holds 2 of 3 from Tier 1 and Tier 2 is split, then the lawyers will be brought in and it will get far uglier than 2000 and the election will probably be decided in the US House.

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jmfcst
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« Reply #14 on: May 28, 2004, 03:23:15 PM »

Vorlon,

I don't think NH being the only state flipping in 2004 is even possible.
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classical liberal
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« Reply #15 on: May 28, 2004, 04:04:58 PM »

I wouldn't be surprised to see VA end up as Bush-Kerry 49-47 on election day.
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California Dreamer
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« Reply #16 on: May 28, 2004, 04:12:42 PM »

This could just be political payback to Governor Warner for his endorsement during the primaries. He wanted on the shortlist.

Kerry's team is probably just seeing if their is any chance of a VA win.
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agcatter
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« Reply #17 on: May 28, 2004, 04:16:22 PM »

Mass liberal carrying Va.  Some of you guys are smoking crack.
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12th Doctor
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« Reply #18 on: May 28, 2004, 04:24:27 PM »

He's gaudging how far he could go in Virginia so that he knows what affect putting Edwards on the ticket might have.
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Lunar
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« Reply #19 on: May 28, 2004, 04:30:24 PM »

Mass liberal carrying Va.  Some of you guys are smoking crack.

Not everyone sees him how you do.

I don't think he has a chance either, but perhaps now is too early to be discarding any states.  On top of that, it's a cheap way to get media coverage as Vorlon pointed out.
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MHS2002
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« Reply #20 on: May 28, 2004, 04:35:24 PM »

Kerry will not carry Virginia barring a landslide. That said, Bush won't win by the 8% like 2000. A margin of victory around 5% seems likely.
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #21 on: May 28, 2004, 04:46:14 PM »

Vorlon,

I don't think NH being the only state flipping in 2004 is even possible.

Why not?
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12th Doctor
supersoulty
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« Reply #22 on: May 28, 2004, 04:46:26 PM »

Wow, Vorlon, this map is much more Bush freindly than I would have expected, especially given all the negative coverage.  Why so?  Some "credible" organizations seem to think that Kerry has Bush falling back in a near rout.

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jmfcst
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« Reply #23 on: May 28, 2004, 05:00:06 PM »

Vorlon,

I don't think NH being the only state flipping in 2004 is even possible.

Why not?

Other states will switch columns before NH.
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #24 on: May 28, 2004, 05:02:29 PM »


Other states will switch columns before NH.

I DO tend to agree with you, I think OH and NM will switch before NH does, but it is definitely a possibility that NH will be the only state to switch.  They are heavily trending Dem...look at the %'s Reagan racked up there.
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