Kerry expanding into Virginia

[The Vorlon]

It is extreme but I think it is in the realm of possibility.  I don't believe that this will be a close election.  Despite (and actually maybe because of) all the attention that the split-country model has been getting in the media.  Bush or Kerry will untimately win in a landslide in November.  My model is simply and I think accurately what a Kerry landslide would look like.  Just like your prediction Soupersoulty, which I think is just as optomistic and perhaps realistic, is what a Bush landslide would like.

AHAHAHAHAHAHAHA  That's my prediction for a Santorum/Kucinich race.  You'd know if you had bothered to look.

Unrelated...

Your take on the Pennsylvania senate race?

Please & Thank-you!

[12th Doctor]

It is extreme but I think it is in the realm of possibility.  I don't believe that this will be a close election.  Despite (and actually maybe because of) all the attention that the split-country model has been getting in the media.  Bush or Kerry will untimately win in a landslide in November.  My model is simply and I think accurately what a Kerry landslide would look like.  Just like your prediction Soupersoulty, which I think is just as optomistic and perhaps realistic, is what a Bush landslide would like.

AHAHAHAHAHAHAHA  That's my prediction for a Santorum/Kucinich race.  You'd know if you had bothered to look.

Unrelated...

Your take on the Pennsylvania senate race?

Please & Thank-you!

I haven't researched into it much, because personally I have stopped caring, but I think Specter will probably win by a rather tidy margin.  Hoeffel just lacks the organization.  I am kinda hoping Hoeffel wins to be honest, that way there would be no established candidate to take on Santorum.  Unless of course Specter can dig up some dirt to fatally wound Hoeffel.  I know that that is not what you asked for.

I will say this though, the victory of Specter over Toomey proves one thing.  Look at the map.  I see that those voters who are from the more conservative areas of PA are fiercly loyal to Bush (because they voted for Specter against their own beliefs).  That could play big for Bush in November.

[WalterMitty]

note to john kerry:  OHIO.

so far ive heard colorado, arkansas, louisiana and virginia.  tomorrow nebraska will probably be on kerry's map

[California Dreamer]

Or maybe I have access to more numbers than you do, and understand them better....  

Have a great weekend..

ahhhh....the fabled 'secret information' like that guy who had his secret 'inside info' on who's on the real Kerry Shortlist.

dude..I dont have a problem with you...just admit that your predictions are effected by your pro Bush bias just like everyone else. admitting you are biased is the first step....we are all biased....are we to assume that you are the only unbiased person (highly unlikely a lifelong Republican can suddenly become unbiased)

[12th Doctor]

note to john kerry:  OHIO.

so far ive heard colorado, arkansas, louisiana and virginia.  tomorrow nebraska will probably be on kerry's map

I think that Kerry is testing the waters for his various VP choices.  Seeing where he can acctually make gains if he applies himself and picks the right VP.

[12th Doctor]

Or maybe I have access to more numbers than you do, and understand them better....  

Have a great weekend..

ahhhh....the fabled 'secret information' like that guy who had his secret 'inside info' on who's on the real Kerry Shortlist.

dude..I dont have a problem with you...just admit that your predictions are effected by your pro Bush bias just like everyone else. admitting you are biased is the first step....we are all biased....are we to assume that you are the only unbiased person (highly unlikely a lifelong Republican can suddenly become unbiased)

I wouldn't arguee with the man.  Something tells me the Vorlon is a real pollster.  He seems to love Mason/Dixon (could just be a coincidence).  Or even better, he may be involoved in running the extremely accurate internal polls that the cadidate use.

The other guy who claimed inside info (can't remember who it was) was just a nutcase.

[agcatter]

Yeah, I wouldn't argue with him either.  The guy knows his stuff.  

[??????????]

It is extreme but I think it is in the realm of possibility.  I don't believe that this will be a close election.  Despite (and actually maybe because of) all the attention that the split-country model has been getting in the media.  Bush or Kerry will untimately win in a landslide in November.  My model is simply and I think accurately what a Kerry landslide would look like.  Just like your prediction Soupersoulty, which I think is just as optomistic and perhaps realistic, is what a Bush landslide would like.

That map is not impossible this year.

[Smash255]

note to john kerry:  OHIO.

so far ive heard colorado, arkansas, louisiana and virginia.  tomorrow nebraska will probably be on kerry's map

What about Ohio??  Kerry is spending money in Ohio.  If I remember correctly as of a few weeks ago he spent more money in Ohio than any other state

[Lunar]

A state reaches its saturation limit too.  I wouldn't be surprised if your "bang" decreases exponentially the more bucks you put in.

[12th Doctor]

A state reaches its saturation limit too.  I wouldn't be surprised if your "bang" decreases exponentially the more bucks you put in.

Very true.  After a while, people will just tune you out.  Dean absolutly saturated the airwaves in New Hampshire and spent a lot of money in Iowa and look what it got him.

[khirkhib]

It is extreme but I think it is in the realm of possibility.  I don't believe that this will be a close election.  Despite (and actually maybe because of) all the attention that the split-country model has been getting in the media.  Bush or Kerry will untimately win in a landslide in November.  My model is simply and I think accurately what a Kerry landslide would look like.  Just like your prediction Soupersoulty, which I think is just as optomistic and perhaps realistic, is what a Bush landslide would like.

AHAHAHAHAHAHAHA  That's my prediction for a Santorum/Kucinich race.  You'd know if you had bothered to look.

P.S. Personally, given the very divided nature of the electorate and the EC, I do believe that this maybe the first re-election campaign since 1916 where one candidate doesn't totally blow the other off the map.

Come on Super how am i supposed to know if it is your real map.  Or your pretend Santorum/Kucinich map.  Though that was version 18 of the map you say nothing about it in the comment history. Comments History

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Is this your real map or is this a hypotetical map between two other candidates that will never be on the ballot for presidential election.

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/pred04.php?action=indpred&id=1116

Before you diss my map, which I openly before the forum admit that it is unlikely though may be what a sweep scenario looks like, than post and defend your own map.

[classical liberal]

A map has to be conherent wrt itself to be considered valid.  Any map that has WA Dem but CA GOP is bullsh**t.  Any map that has NJ GOP with IL or CA Dem is bullsh**t.

[mddem2004]

Not a bad strategy for Kerry, or even surprising. Virginia's northern suburbs are one of the fastest growing regions in the country. Take the northern suburbs in sufficent numbers and you win the state. Alot of independents, soccer moms, and a growing latino community. When combined with the fact the Gov. Warner (D) is a generally liked and respected governor who will campaign hard for Kerry, it makes sence. Yes...Virginia going Dem in a presidential election might be difficult to swallow to die hard conservatives. But who would have thought 10 years ago that long time die hard conservative states like Nevada, Florida, Arizona, or even North Carolina would be "Toss Up" states today (North Carolina went for Dole by only 4.69% in 96, and by only 0.79% for Bush I in 92!).

The states that have the fastest growing populations and urbanization are and will continue to trend more moderate or even liberal  in the next few election cycles.
Conversly, those states that are losing population will tend to trend more conservative (ie West Virginia).

Conservatives....get used to it!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The problem with WV's isn't that it's losing population... the problem is that less people in the strongly Democrat south of the state are voting.

[Schmitz in 1972]

There is absolutely no way Kerry is going to take Virginia, and I should know being a Virginian myself.  If you want to win this election Kerry, (God forbid) you best be spending your money elsewhere.

[JohnFKennedy]

There is absolutely no way Kerry is going to take Virginia, and I should know being a Virginian myself.  If you want to win this election Kerry, (God forbid) you best be spending your money elsewhere.

Liberty, perchance is your name Liberty as you went to Liberty University in Virginia?

Just something someone suggested to me.

[Schmitz in 1972]

There is absolutely no way Kerry is going to take Virginia, and I should know being a Virginian myself.  If you want to win this election Kerry, (God forbid) you best be spending your money elsewhere.

Liberty, perchance is your name Liberty as you went to Liberty University in Virginia?

Just something someone suggested to me.

I knew if I chose Liberty as a username that someone was going to think that.  The answer is no, while I respect the University my name is Liberty because it is what I stand for. (BTW, you could have looked in the "What does your username mean" thread, I posted there.

[JohnFKennedy]

There is absolutely no way Kerry is going to take Virginia, and I should know being a Virginian myself.  If you want to win this election Kerry, (God forbid) you best be spending your money elsewhere.

Liberty, perchance is your name Liberty as you went to Liberty University in Virginia?

Just something someone suggested to me.

I knew if I chose Liberty as a username that someone was going to think that.  The answer is no, while I respect the University my name is Liberty because it is what I stand for. (BTW, you could have looked in the "What does your username mean" thread, I posted there.

Oh ok, it is just something someone suggested to me when I showed them your list of top 10 worst and best Presidents.

[12th Doctor]

It is extreme but I think it is in the realm of possibility.  I don't believe that this will be a close election.  Despite (and actually maybe because of) all the attention that the split-country model has been getting in the media.  Bush or Kerry will untimately win in a landslide in November.  My model is simply and I think accurately what a Kerry landslide would look like.  Just like your prediction Soupersoulty, which I think is just as optomistic and perhaps realistic, is what a Bush landslide would like.

AHAHAHAHAHAHAHA  That's my prediction for a Santorum/Kucinich race.  You'd know if you had bothered to look.

P.S. Personally, given the very divided nature of the electorate and the EC, I do believe that this maybe the first re-election campaign since 1916 where one candidate doesn't totally blow the other off the map.

Come on Super how am i supposed to know if it is your real map.  Or your pretend Santorum/Kucinich map.  Though that was version 18 of the map you say nothing about it in the comment history. Comments History

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Is this your real map or is this a hypotetical map between two other candidates that will never be on the ballot for presidential election.

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/pred04.php?action=indpred&id=1116

Before you diss my map, which I openly before the forum admit that it is unlikely though may be what a sweep scenario looks like, than post and defend your own map.

No that's the map from a dream that I had, as I was just showing, States.  And I used the map you posted on the Santorum vs. Kucinich thread.  I don't really have a real map at the moment.

[12th Doctor]

It is extreme but I think it is in the realm of possibility.  I don't believe that this will be a close election.  Despite (and actually maybe because of) all the attention that the split-country model has been getting in the media.  Bush or Kerry will untimately win in a landslide in November.  My model is simply and I think accurately what a Kerry landslide would look like.  Just like your prediction Soupersoulty, which I think is just as optomistic and perhaps realistic, is what a Bush landslide would like.

AHAHAHAHAHAHAHA  That's my prediction for a Santorum/Kucinich race.  You'd know if you had bothered to look.

P.S. Personally, given the very divided nature of the electorate and the EC, I do believe that this maybe the first re-election campaign since 1916 where one candidate doesn't totally blow the other off the map.

Come on Super how am i supposed to know if it is your real map.  Or your pretend Santorum/Kucinich map.  Though that was version 18 of the map you say nothing about it in the comment history. Comments History

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Is this your real map or is this a hypotetical map between two other candidates that will never be on the ballot for presidential election.

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/pred04.php?action=indpred&id=1116

Before you diss my map, which I openly before the forum admit that it is unlikely though may be what a sweep scenario looks like, than post and defend your own map.

And, I had my map posted in my signature for a long time, I just took it down because there wasn't enough room.

[khirkhib]

well as long as you are being scientific it's fine

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

It is extreme but I think it is in the realm of possibility.  I don't believe that this will be a close election.  Despite (and actually maybe because of) all the attention that the split-country model has been getting in the media.  Bush or Kerry will untimately win in a landslide in November.  My model is simply and I think accurately what a Kerry landslide would look like.  Just like your prediction Soupersoulty, which I think is just as optomistic and perhaps realistic, is what a Bush landslide would like.

AHAHAHAHAHAHAHA  That's my prediction for a Santorum/Kucinich race.  You'd know if you had bothered to look.

P.S. Personally, given the very divided nature of the electorate and the EC, I do believe that this maybe the first re-election campaign since 1916 where one candidate doesn't totally blow the other off the map.

Come on Super how am i supposed to know if it is your real map.  Or your pretend Santorum/Kucinich map.  Though that was version 18 of the map you say nothing about it in the comment history. Comments History

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Is this your real map or is this a hypotetical map between two other candidates that will never be on the ballot for presidential election.

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/pred04.php?action=indpred&id=1116

Before you diss my map, which I openly before the forum admit that it is unlikely though may be what a sweep scenario looks like, than post and defend your own map.

No that's the map from a dream that I had, as I was just showing, States.  And I used the map you posted on the Santorum vs. Kucinich thread.  I don't really have a real map at the moment.

didn't you once have a serious prediction map that had Bush winning Hawaii?

[mddem2004]

The problem with WV's isn't that it's losing population... the problem is that less people in the strongly Democrat south of the state are voting.

Actually the real problem is that they are simply dying. Many of the older Roosvelt era diehard Democrats are simply dying and not being replaced with newly registered, and consistantly democratic voting democrats. We have much the same problem in my state in counties like Alleghany which used to be a staunch Democratic county. Last year there were several months that people were removed from the democratic rolls due to death far out numbered new enrollments.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

While I doubt Kerry will win Virginia, I predict it'll be a lot closer than everyone expects. I don't see why people can't see Virginia is becoming less Republican. The northern suburbs are heavily growing, and the Virginia Beach/Newport News area is being loaded with northeastern transplants.