Kerry expanding into Virginia

[agcatter]

<not everyone sees him as you do>

What?  As a Massachusetts liberal?  How the hell else could anyone see him?  He's from Massachusetts right?  He has a Senate voting record at least as left as Ted Kennedy.  You think the Bush campaign is going to let Kerry keep that a secret in Virginia?  I hope Kerry's campaign just pours the money into that state.  While they're at it why not dump about four million bucks into Louisiana as well.  And don't stop there.  Since we're now firmly in lala land, why not go after the Carolinas and Tennessee?  I'm sure Southern whites are going to jump at the chance to get on the bandwagon of such a mainstream guy like Kerry.

[The Vorlon]

Wow, Vorlon, this map is much more Bush freindly than I would have expected, especially given all the negative coverage.  Why so?  Some "credible" organizations seem to think that Kerry has Bush falling back in a near rout.

Firstly, burn all the state polls that come out in the summer.  Don't bother even looking at them.  Use them to wrap fish or line your bird cage.  I know the odd Dem will accuse me of bias on this but I have been saying this for months....

in the summer, you should take the state polls and burn them..

This leaves the national polls, so lets look at them...

(Since most polls are going registered voters, that is what I will use, in a "head to head" where possible.)

Firstly, the Head to Head Registered is the LEAST favorable to Bush of all the choices...

Gallup has Kerry +2
TIPP has Kerry +1
Fox has it tied
Quinnipiac has it tied
ABC has Kerry +2
Rasmussen (based on today's coin flip) has it tied
CBS News  has Kerry +47, or + 23 or what ever (ok it's 8% head to head)
CNN/Time which had Kerry +5%
Zogby has Kerry +5
ARG had Kerry +5

Even if we leave in CBS and ARG, if you average them all, you get Kerry up 2.8% nationally using the LEAST favorable for Bush way of looking at things there is.  

Knock 0.8% off for Nader, and Kerry is up 2% (A "sane" guess I think for a Nader adjustment factor)

Next, Remember this is registered voters we are talking here -   Give the GOP base (Which while grumpy is still showing 90% Support for Bush) anything RESEMBLING good news and the traditional 3% or so GOP edge in a likely voter versus registered vote poll pops back..

Like Magic, Bush is up a point or two...

There is also some evidence that Bush is running a tad better in the Battleground states than he is nationally

    -The last Gallup national poll had Bush +5 in the Battlegrounds
    -Fox had Bush +4 in the Battlegrounds
    -TIPP had Bush +6 in the battlegrounds

While the sample sizes in the battleground part of these national polls is quite small (240-360 ish) the fact that ALL THREE say roughly the same thing  makes me marginally more likely to believe it is true.

Some perspective here - Even without tossing out the clearly Bull%^&t polls in the above calculation, Bush is Down 2.8%, hardly a meltdown.

Ohio was carried by Bush by 3% and a bit of change in 2000 in a race he lost by .51% nationally.  Shift the whole nation 1.5% from it's 2000 baseline and Bush is up 1 or 2% or so in Ohio.

The media frenzy just reflect their enthusiasm for a good story.. the actual shift in the polls has been about 4% or so.  Bush was up 2% or so, he is now down 2% or so.

The fundementals of the race have not changed.

PREDICTION - Bush will be up 2 or 3 in the next round of National polls.

At least that is my opinion.

[khirkhib]

I think the map at http://www.electionprojection.com/elections2004.html is begining to show what is more likely than Vorlon's current projection.  And if you scrolled down and look at State of the States.

Really Close Bush States (5% or less)
53 Electoral Votes

Tennessee (11) - 2.39%
Arkansas (6) - 1.50%
Virginia (13) - 1.18%
Louisiana (9) - 1.08%
West Virginia (5) - 0.78%
Colorado (9) - 0.54%

Really Close Kerry States (5% or less)
70 Electoral Votes

Arizona (10) - 0.73%
Iowa (7) - 3.05%
Missouri (11) - 3.36%
Nevada (5) - 3.54%
Florida (27) - 3.70%
Wisconsin (10) - 4.10%

Begining to look really easy for Colorado and West Virginia to come into Kerry's fold.

Election day map.  The always optomistic.




and Georgia at 5.33 Bush advantage is awfully close to becoming one of the really close for Bush.

When Bush and Kerry are polling near even in Georgia - Bush better call U-Haul

Kerry      337
Bush      148
Toss Up  53

[The Vorlon]

I think the map at www.electionproject.com is begining to show what is more likely than Vorlon's current projection.  And if you scrolled down and look at State of the States.

Really Close Bush States (5% or less)
53 Electoral Votes

Tennessee (11) - 2.39%
Arkansas (6) - 1.50%
Virginia (13) - 1.18%
Louisiana (9) - 1.08%
West Virginia (5) - 0.78%
Colorado (9) - 0.54%

Really Close Kerry States (5% or less)
70 Electoral Votes

Arizona (10) - 0.73%
Iowa (7) - 3.05%
Missouri (11) - 3.36%
Nevada (5) - 3.54%
Florida (27) - 3.70%
Wisconsin (10) - 4.10%

Begining to look really easy for Colorado and West Virginia to come into Kerry's fold.

Election day map.  The always optomistic.




and Georgia at 5.33 Bush advantage is awfully close to becoming one of the really close for Bush.

When Bush and Kerry are polling near even in Georgia - Bush better call U-Haul

Your link does not work, could you repost it please & thank-you! (Election Project)

[California Dreamer]

head to heads are not the whole story...especially before the conventions during a reelection year. The right track wrong track numbers and the Bush approval numbers have to be factored in.

And even when looking at head to heads, independent candidates always poll better than they actually do.

When you look at all the national numbers today
Bush in 3 way
Bush in 2 way
Bush approval
Right track

all are in mid to low 40s...with right track in the 30s.

Bush needs to get these numbers into the high 40s at least and really into the 50s if he is going to win.

[khirkhib]

Fixed the link http://www.electionprojection.com/elections2004.html
and the toss up gif is better.
Really shows the contrast

[The Vorlon]

head to heads are not the whole story...especially before the conventions during a reelection year. The right track wrong track numbers and the Bush approval numbers have to be factored in.

And even when looking at head to heads, independent candidates always poll better than they actually do.

When you look at all the national numbers today
Bush in 3 way
Bush in 2 way
Bush approval
Right track

all are in mid to low 40s...with right track in the 30s.

Bush needs to get these numbers into the high 40s at least and really into the 50s if he is going to win.

I basically agree with you actually.

I posted a couple months ago that the polling number that jumps out at me is the "mismatch" between right track / wrong track and where Bush is.

These two numbers will eventually reconcile with one another.

Either Bush pulls away, or sinks like a rock

[California Dreamer]

This is why that election projection map shows Kerry doing much better than his head to head. One can argue to the weighting that they give to Bush's approval and right track/wrong track, but at least they are factoring them in.

it is traditional for a challenger to take time to get the voters to know him...therefore the head to heads are a lagging indicator to the approval and right track, at this point. (Closer to the election it will reverse and head to head will be more indicitive). Although they are interesting...Head to heads are not very accurate until after both conventions when the swing voters start paying attention.


Of note, in the recent annenburg study, Kerry has boosted his positives in the BG states by 4% in the last month, probably due to his first set of bio ads (and despite the same amount spend on attack ads from Bush)...but there are still quite a few 'neutral' or 'no opinion'. Whereas Bush has very few people who are nuetral or have no opinion.

[khirkhib]

I'm just assuming that he is going to sink like a rock.  I want to predict what the most likely Kerry sweep will look like.  I hope Kerry's own numbers go up after the Convention.

Kerry positive spikes.
Choose Vice President:  Mostly helps firm up non-party members and maybe gets a couple dissastified, regional Republicans.  Increases turn out for regional democrats.

Democratic Convention: strengthens the Democrat base

Nader: Does not get on many ballots, perhaps drops his bid and defers to Kerry.  Small bounce for Kerry from the Other section of the polls

Debates Presidential and the vice-presidential: Brings in votes from the Undecideds, nobody will really switch tickets on the debates.


Election Day: Undecideds vote for the challenger.

Bush's Long Slide:
June 30th: Whatever happens in Iraq US GIs will continue to die,  factions and terrorists will become more desperate and violent if it looks like they are losing out on the power grab.  If they do not become desperate they are winning in Iraq and US GIs will continue to die in greater numbers.

Republic Convention: Ill timed New York convention causes riots.  The Bush faithful will become more faithful (but they were going to vote anyway).  Leaves a bad taste in the mouths of the likely Bush voters and they become less likely to vote for Bush or become Undecided.  Bush makes a lot more promises  and it will become clear that they will not be kept.

Debates: By now I hope Kerry will have turned on.  Kerry will make Bush stand on his record and Bush will drop in numbers with Women voters.

Osama: Not found.  Loses more votes

Scandal: Yet to be determined early fall.  Likely become even less likely.  Even adamant supporters find better things to do than vote for Bush like polishing silver ware.

everything going Kerry's way unlikely but if we were to make bets today it always a good idea to realisticly look at the outliers.  I'm betting on double 0.

[zachman]

Khirkhib there are only two things I really disagree with in your predictions. First, I don't think that the debates will have much of an effect. Second, I think that there is going to be some overriding event of priority in the fall.

[Lunar]

There is also some evidence that Bush is running a tad better in the Battleground states than he is nationally

    -The last Gallup national poll had Bush +5 in the Battlegrounds
    -Fox had Bush +4 in the Battlegrounds
    -TIPP had Bush +6 in the battlegrounds

While the sample sizes in the battleground part of these national polls is quite small (240-360 ish) the fact that ALL THREE say roughly the same thing  makes me marginally more likely to believe it is true.

Believe what is true?  What does the "battlegrounds" number even mean?  This number is simply not very useful.  If the polling firm includes Louisiana, Nevada, Colorado, Arizona, Missouri, etc. in this number, it's going to be skewed towards Bush.  Of course, some states like Minnesota and Maine will skew it slightly back to Kerry, but they don't add up to nearly the same amount.  Or even if they did, the average number for all of them still doesn't reflect the overall situation in the battlegrounds.  Bush could be doing extremely well in Florida but worse in Ohio.

[California Dreamer]

Bush isnt leading in BG states

 latest (May 23) Gallup

...not Bush  +5, but Kerry +5  kind of different

[The Vorlon]

Bush isnt leading in BG states

 latest (May 23) Gallup

...not Bush  +5, but Kerry +5  kind of different

You are correct

I had the May 13th gallup on my brain... Exact same mistake you made a few weeks back when you quoted the May 9th Gallup..

This time I am one poll out of step.

[California Dreamer]

well I guess we are even

but I would like to see proof that the other two BG polls show a Bush lead. The only other BG poll I saw this week was the (potentially dubious) Zogby which showed Kerry leading so far that Bush should just pack it in now.

[Lunar]

I still disagree that this number actually means anything.

[The Vorlon]

well I guess we are even

but I would like to see proof that the other two BG polls show a Bush lead. The only other BG poll I saw this week was the (potentially dubious) Zogby which showed Kerry leading so far that Bush should just pack it in now.

Link to TIPP

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=200405181

Link to Fox

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=200505190

Lunar is right

with 2 showing up and 1 down.... it's meaningless

[California Dreamer]

So you agree that there are discrepencies with the BG polls (2 up and 2 down). Plus you agree that the right track and approval numbers should be factored in, and that those both show problems for Bush.

Then like other Republicans here, your predictions are 'faith based'....thats fine, but it certainly isnt a neutral objective observation

If you really want to make the case for Bush and pretend its objective, then go to jobs and economic numbers and not rely exclusively on cherry picking a few head to head polls 5 months before a reelection.

[The Vorlon]

So you agree that there are discrepencies with the BG polls (2 up and 2 down). Plus you agree that the right track and approval numbers should be factored in, and that those both show problems for Bush.

Then like other Republicans here, your predictions are 'faith based'....thats fine, but it certainly isnt a neutral objective observation

If you really want to make the case for Bush and pretend its objective, then go to jobs and economic numbers and not rely exclusively on cherry picking a few head to head polls 5 months before a reelection.

I averaged 10 polls in my post... hardly cherrypicking, other than an "insider advantage" that showed a tie, I think I used every single poll out there...

I even included CBS which is pro kerry by 6% versus the average of the other 9

If you were less stidently partisan your arguments would work better.

[12th Doctor]

I think the map at http://www.electionprojection.com/elections2004.html is begining to show what is more likely than Vorlon's current projection.  And if you scrolled down and look at State of the States.

Really Close Bush States (5% or less)
53 Electoral Votes

Tennessee (11) - 2.39%
Arkansas (6) - 1.50%
Virginia (13) - 1.18%
Louisiana (9) - 1.08%
West Virginia (5) - 0.78%
Colorado (9) - 0.54%

Really Close Kerry States (5% or less)
70 Electoral Votes

Arizona (10) - 0.73%
Iowa (7) - 3.05%
Missouri (11) - 3.36%
Nevada (5) - 3.54%
Florida (27) - 3.70%
Wisconsin (10) - 4.10%

Begining to look really easy for Colorado and West Virginia to come into Kerry's fold.

Election day map.  The always optomistic.




and Georgia at 5.33 Bush advantage is awfully close to becoming one of the really close for Bush.

When Bush and Kerry are polling near even in Georgia - Bush better call U-Haul

Kerry      337
Bush      148
Toss Up  53

Dude, that map is seriously junk.  Even Dems that I have talked to say that.

[California Dreamer]

So you agree that there are discrepencies with the BG polls (2 up and 2 down). Plus you agree that the right track and approval numbers should be factored in, and that those both show problems for Bush.

Then like other Republicans here, your predictions are 'faith based'....thats fine, but it certainly isnt a neutral objective observation

If you really want to make the case for Bush and pretend its objective, then go to jobs and economic numbers and not rely exclusively on cherry picking a few head to head polls 5 months before a reelection.

I averaged 10 polls in my post... hardly cherrypicking, other than an "insider advantage" that showed a tie, I think I used every single poll out there...

I even included CBS which is pro kerry by 6% versus the average of the other 9

If you were less stidently partisan your arguments would work better.

you agree that head to heads are not an indicator, yet you use them for your 'prediction', even using a flawed one. You agree that one should factor in right track and job approval, yet you ignore them.

I freely admint I am partisan, I like partisan people. And your predictions fit well into all the other Republicans who 'hope' for a Bush reelection, just stop pretending it isnt.

[khirkhib]

It is extreme but I think it is in the realm of possibility.  I don't believe that this will be a close election.  Despite (and actually maybe because of) all the attention that the split-country model has been getting in the media.  Bush or Kerry will untimately win in a landslide in November.  My model is simply and I think accurately what a Kerry landslide would look like.  Just like your prediction Soupersoulty, which I think is just as optomistic and perhaps realistic, is what a Bush landslide would like.

[The Vorlon]

So you agree that there are discrepencies with the BG polls (2 up and 2 down). Plus you agree that the right track and approval numbers should be factored in, and that those both show problems for Bush.

Then like other Republicans here, your predictions are 'faith based'....thats fine, but it certainly isnt a neutral objective observation

If you really want to make the case for Bush and pretend its objective, then go to jobs and economic numbers and not rely exclusively on cherry picking a few head to head polls 5 months before a reelection.

I averaged 10 polls in my post... hardly cherrypicking, other than an "insider advantage" that showed a tie, I think I used every single poll out there...

I even included CBS which is pro kerry by 6% versus the average of the other 9

If you were less stidently partisan your arguments would work better.

you agree that head to heads are not an indicator, yet you use them for your 'prediction', even using a flawed one. You agree that one should factor in right track and job approval, yet you ignore them.

I freely admint I am partisan, I like partisan people. And your predictions fit well into all the other Republicans who 'hope' for a Bush reelection, just stop pretending it isnt.

I have never said that.

You are making things up.

Of course head to head is an indicator.

Who people are going to vote for is NOT an indicator in your book?

[California Dreamer]

you agreed that head to heads are not the sole indicator

yet that is all you use to justify your 'prediction'...and even the head to heads dont show a Bush win.

and you agree that you shouldnt ignore the right track and the job approvals...yet your do ignore them for your prediction


Look I have no problem with hope based predictions....everyone here has one...and so do you.....just dont try to dress it up as anything else.


If Bush's numbers bounce back in June....then you can say it is numbers based....until then it is 'faith based'

[The Vorlon]

you agreed that head to heads are not the sole indicator

yet that is all you use to justify your 'prediction'...and even the head to heads dont show a Bush win.

and you agree that you shouldnt ignore the right track and the job approvals...yet your do ignore them for your prediction


Look I have no problem with hope based predictions....everyone here has one...and so do you.....just dont try to dress it up as anything else.


If Bush's numbers bounce back in June....then you can say it is numbers based....until then it is 'faith based'

Or maybe I have access to more numbers than you do, and understand them better....  

Have a great weekend..

[12th Doctor]

It is extreme but I think it is in the realm of possibility.  I don't believe that this will be a close election.  Despite (and actually maybe because of) all the attention that the split-country model has been getting in the media.  Bush or Kerry will untimately win in a landslide in November.  My model is simply and I think accurately what a Kerry landslide would look like.  Just like your prediction Soupersoulty, which I think is just as optomistic and perhaps realistic, is what a Bush landslide would like.

AHAHAHAHAHAHAHA  That's my prediction for a Santorum/Kucinich race.  You'd know if you had bothered to look.

P.S. Personally, given the very divided nature of the electorate and the EC, I do believe that this maybe the first re-election campaign since 1916 where one candidate doesn't totally blow the other off the map.