🇬🇪 Georgia on my mind: Parliamentary elections on 26 October
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
May 01, 2024, 04:57:18 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: afleitch, Hash)
  🇬🇪 Georgia on my mind: Parliamentary elections on 26 October
« previous next »
Pages: 1 2 3 [4]
Poll
Question: Who would you vote for?
#1
GD (govt., populist, conservative)
 
#2
UNM/SB (center-right, pro EU)
 
#3
For Georgia (centrist, pro EU)
 
#4
Lelo (centrist/liberal, pro EU)
 
#5
Girchi/Droa (liberal, pro EU)
 
#6
Labour (populist, left-wing, conservative)
 
#7
APG (national conservative, pro Russia)
 
#8
For the People (center-left, pro EU)
 
#9
Ahali (centrist, pro EU)
 
#10
Georgian Idea/CM-Alt Info (far-right, pro Russia)
 
#11
Other
 
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 9

Author Topic: 🇬🇪 Georgia on my mind: Parliamentary elections on 26 October  (Read 8885 times)
Astatine
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,880


Political Matrix
E: -0.72, S: -5.90

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #75 on: April 15, 2024, 05:10:33 PM »

And keep in mind, Aleko Elisashvili's Citizens Party is considered to be part of the constructive opposition that doesn't fully oppose working with GD. One of their MPs was elected Public Defender in 2023, and they were one of the first parties to negotiate the end of the parliamentary boycott back in 2020. Parts of the opposition consider him a traitor, but today he was celebrated by protesters for his action.

Today, the Judiciary Committee passed the bill, and during the hearing the committe chairman expelled all opposition MPs and turned off their microphones if they even mentioned the word "Russian Law". It is expected to go through the first of three readings tomorrow, afterwards a fourth one is required to override the President's veto. She once again took side with the protesters, just like last year (when she was on a working trip in the US).

The protests today were quite large in size, but relatively peaceful, even though police apparently threatened to disassemble the demonstrators and had tear gas and water cannons prepared. An escalation from their side might have led to even more turmoil. 14 people were reportedly detained, including the chairman of the libertarian Girchi/More Freedom Party, Zurab Japaridze.

The spirit of the protests remains quite unbroken compared to last time. As said, any escalation could quickly backfire, but thus far the crowd remains determined. Not sure yet what the electoral effect will be. The law will not help GD by any means, but it remains more than questionable as to whether the opposition can really capitalize of it in the long term, given the constant state of disarray, disorientation and fragmentation. The opposition might start to organize by May, after which the electoral code cannot be amended anymore, in case GD does any surprise changes.

Btw, one underrated aspect in this might be the perspective discreditation of CSOs and NGOs that try to oversee the electoral process. In 2003, their parallel counts were part of the reason why the massive fraud of the parliamentary elections got exposed.
Logged
MaxQue
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,626
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #76 on: April 15, 2024, 05:24:49 PM »
« Edited: April 20, 2024, 11:55:37 AM by Hash »

And keep in mind, Aleko Elisashvili's Citizens Party is considered to be part of the constructive opposition that doesn't fully oppose working with GD. One of their MPs was elected Public Defender in 2023, and they were one of the first parties to negotiate the end of the parliamentary boycott back in 2020. Parts of the opposition consider him a traitor, but today he was celebrated by protesters for his action.

Today, the Judiciary Committee passed the bill, and during the hearing the committe chairman expelled all opposition MPs and turned off their microphones if they even mentioned the word "Russian Law". It is expected to go through the first of three readings tomorrow, afterwards a fourth one is required to override the President's veto. She once again took side with the protesters, just like last year (when she was on a working trip in the US).

The protests today were quite large in size, but relatively peaceful, even though police apparently threatened to disassemble the demonstrators and had tear gas and water cannons prepared. An escalation from their side might have led to even more turmoil. 14 people were reportedly detained, including the chairman of the libertarian Girchi/More Freedom Party, Zurab Japaridze.

The spirit of the protests remains quite unbroken compared to last time. As said, any escalation could quickly backfire, but thus far the crowd remains determined. Not sure yet what the electoral effect will be. The law will not help GD by any means, but it remains more than questionable as to whether the opposition can really capitalize of it in the long term, given the constant state of disarray, disorientation and fragmentation. The opposition might start to organize by May, after which the electoral code cannot be amended anymore, in case GD does any surprise changes.

Btw, one underrated aspect in this might be the perspective discreditation of CSOs and NGOs that try to oversee the electoral process. In 2003, their parallel counts were part of the reason why the massive fraud of the parliamentary elections got exposed.

How naive protesters are. The only way GD will ever give up power is through a coup
Logged
Astatine
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,880


Political Matrix
E: -0.72, S: -5.90

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #77 on: April 17, 2024, 05:44:21 AM »

The bill passed the first reading with 83 votes in favor (opposition not attending the vote).
Numerous sportsmen publicly spoke out against the bill, including UFC champion Ilia Topuria, footballers Budu Zivzivadze, Giorgi Mamardashvili and Khvicha Khvaratskhelia.
Logged
icc
Rookie
**
Posts: 210
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #78 on: April 17, 2024, 06:03:46 PM »

The bill passed the first reading with 83 votes in favor (opposition not attending the vote).
Numerous sportsmen publicly spoke out against the bill, including UFC champion Ilia Topuria, footballers Budu Zivzivadze, Giorgi Mamardashvili and Khvicha Khvaratskhelia.
Add to that Davit Niniashvili, star of the Georgian rugby team.
Logged
Logical
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,780


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #79 on: April 17, 2024, 06:22:40 PM »

And yet Georgian Nightmare will still win at least 40%.
Logged
EastAnglianLefty
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,601


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #80 on: April 18, 2024, 05:06:38 AM »

The Russian Law is nominally designed to promote openness and transparency in government.

Apropos of nothing, the Georgian Parliament's website is currently geoblocked to outsiders - my partner had to use a VPN to access it this morning to get some information off it.
Logged
Astatine
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,880


Political Matrix
E: -0.72, S: -5.90

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #81 on: April 18, 2024, 01:47:37 PM »

And yet Georgian Nightmare will still win at least 40%.
Presumably.

Saakashvili recently proposed a united opposition list without a party formally dominating (this is what "Strength is in unity" was originally supposed to be in 2020, it's just that UNM ended up being dominating as usual), but I doubt it would help much.

Firstly, the electoral code still includes a ban on party blocs - Party members would still be able to run on other parties' lists (double memberships), like it was the case with EDP members integrated into the UNM/Strength is in unity list last time or with the Greens and GD in 2016. Some new party would have to be set up, no opposition party wants to associate itself with UNM too strongly.
Secondly, other parties have no incentive to be sucked up by UNM and limited in their electoral potential by its toxicity. 20-30% are core "Nacis", but getting above that level is extremely difficult for UNM. A strong UNM would strengthen GD once again on the other hand, and as the anti-UNM vote is still larger than the anti-GD vote, opposition loses.
Ahali and Girchi/Droa are exactly aimed at offering a less toxic alternative to UNM and its shenanigans, other parties like For Georgia (FG) or For the people (FP) are more aimed at the GD leaning vote and crack its base support of ~35%. This would obviously get lost if For Georgia or For the people ran with UNM.
And ofc nobody know if Misha is serious or if it's part of one of his weekly mood swings he'll retract later on.

Imho, a Polish scenario would probably be most effective at defeating GD, with numerous shades of opposition competing (UNM-SB, FG-maybe with FP and Citizens, Girchi-Droa, dk with whom Lelo could ally, perhaps Ahali). Not a given it would actually work out and FG could certainly be a risk factor and become Georgia's very own version of Slovak Hlas, but it'd be more likely to succeed than either the current fragmented scenario or a joint opposition list.
Logged
Astatine
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,880


Political Matrix
E: -0.72, S: -5.90

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #82 on: April 19, 2024, 06:17:26 PM »

Protests ain't stopping, despite the official organizers waiting for the next reading for full mobilization, the youth continues to go out en masse - And UNM, Lelo, Strategy Builder, Girchi-More Freedom, Droa, Ahali and the Republican Party have found common ground in opposing the bill in Parliament.

Besides, President Salome Zurabishvili also announced in an interview that she seeks to "develop a platform together with political parties" - her involvement in this could be crucial to attract the youth to vote for the opposition. Youngsters make up a significant share of the electorate in Georgia, but barely go to vote, they tend to loathe the govt. and don't really like the opposition either, but many seem to like Salome as a voice of reason, just like when she recently pardoned Lazare Grigordiades, who was sentenced to 9 years in prison for allegedly throwing a Molotov cocktail at police officers during last years' protests. On the other hand, she has announced numerous formats in the past, which never materialized.
She seems to be very vague about her political ambitions. In an interview in December, she said she'll consider "anything", including running in the elections, if Georgia's European future is on the table, in another one in January, she said she wants to serve out her term, last week she favored snap elections in case of an opposition win this year (which should aim to form a transitional govt. as a mandate for Europe and then get re-approved subsequently). Maybe she speculates on the latter? Foreign Minister seems like the perfect job for her.

It also seems like GD leadership isn't too fond of passing the Foreign Agent Law. Allegedly, in a closed meeting with Ivanishvili, GD leader and ex-PM Gharibashvili, Speaker Papuashvili and Head of State Security Liluashvili, they all warned Bidzina that retabling the bill would hurt GD's chances in October.

Speaking of Ivanishili, Parliament also passed amendments to the tax code according to which the transfer of money from tax heavens to Georgia will become untaxed. Ivanishvili happens to be involved in numerous offshore companies, and this might become a way for Russians to evade sanctions. Very transparent behavior coming from the party that backs a so-called "Transparency Law".

Missed to post a poll from before the protests. This can be pretty much junked, similarly to GORBI (Mtavari Arkhi is the channel that the leader of Ahali owned before rejoining politics). Waiting for IPM/IRI, Edison Research or maybe Ipsos, their polling results are usually closer to reality.

Logged
Storr
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,261
Moldova, Republic of


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #83 on: April 26, 2024, 03:48:45 PM »

Today Kobakhidze claimed "opaque" (in other words foreign funded) NGOs tried to organize two revolutions, in 2020-21 and 2022, respectively. I'm sure this will convince the public of the necessity of the foreign agents law. Because Georgia's real enemies are Western liberals, not the country militarily occupying 20% of the nation's territory.

"Let's remind you, in 2020, they falsified "Pivit", they falsified data regarding the fact that there was an 8% redundancy, as if the CEC published the election results late, which was then used by the opposition. It was a pre-planned scenario to organize a revolution. In 2021, they tried it all. They wanted to achieve extraordinary elections, which they failed to do. After that, in 2020, already when we were not granted the candidate status, these NGOs directly went on stage and demanded the resignation of the government. It was already an attempt to implement their revolutionary scenario directly on the stage. Twice these people, opaque NGOs have tried to organize a revolution in this country."

https://www.interpressnews.ge/ka/article/796957-irakli-kobaxize-gaumchvirvale-ngo-ebma-kveqanashi-revoluciis-mocqoba-orjer-scades
Logged
Storr
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,261
Moldova, Republic of


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #84 on: April 30, 2024, 03:43:37 PM »
« Edited: April 30, 2024, 06:19:31 PM by Storr »

I'll take "Things that will not happen" for $100, Alex:

“I promise that having overcome these difficulties, with sovereignty and dignity intact, in 2030, Georgia will join the EU,” [Ivanishvili] insisted."

Georgia deploys tear gas, water cannon against pro-EU protesters amid ‘Russian law’ outcry

Edit, full text of Ivanishvili's speech where he talks about a "Global War Party" trying to control Georgia, blames everything bad that's happened to the country on said "Global War Party", and promises to punish opponents after the election:

"Greetings, dear friends!

I greet the honorable children of our freedom-loving nation! I would like to wish you all a blessed Palm Sunday, and happy Easter in advance!

Georgia restored its state independence 33 years ago. However, Merab Kostava, one of the leaders of the national movement, warned us: “Remember, you will witness the time when Georgia is free! But know that if you stop fighting for freedom even at that time, in an independent country, then neither you nor your country will remain free.” This counsel by Merab Kostava should be kept in mind at every step.

Georgia should be governed by the authorities elected by the Georgian people! In 2004-2012, we went through difficult years, when the country was ruled not by a government elected by the people, but by an externally appointed revolutionary committee, a foreign agency. Let me remind you that these people – Saakashvili, Bokeria, Merabishvili, Adeishvili, Gvaramia, Kezerashvili, and others – were appointed as the leaders of the authorities of Georgia after the revolution organized by NGOs.

The rule of people appointed from outside in an undemocratic manner clearly demonstrated how severe the inevitable consequences of the loss of freedom, independence, and sovereignty can be. The bloody regime filled prisons to overflowing, tortured prisoners, cost hundreds of innocent people their lives, robbed thousands of businessmen, rigged a number of elections, seized the media, and lost 20 percent of Georgia’s territories.

Many people think that the main reason for these crimes was the inhumane, sadistic, and unpatriotic nature of Saakashvili and his accomplices. In reality, however, everything they did was ordered and directed by their masters from outside. It was for this reason that the foreign politicians who declare Saakashvili, Gvaramia, and Kezerashvili as innocent lambs and demand the punishment of the incumbent authorities today greenlit all of the regime’s unseemly behavior at the time.

Today, these foreigners are motivated by the desire to bring back the inhumane and sadistic dictatorship of the same people to Georgia, which we will not allow at any cost. When we talk about greenlighting, we should also remember that the regime’s sadism enjoyed the full support of the NGOs.

I would like to recall the words of the Indian leader, Jawaharlal Nehru, with a slight amendment: “There is no greater enemy of one’s own country than a pseudo-elite nurtured by a foreign country.” A pseudo-elite nurtured by a foreign country has several key characteristics. They have no homeland; they do not love their country or their people because they do not really consider them to be their own. On the contrary, such people are embarrassed by their country and its people. Such people are like the bat from Akaki [Tsereteli]’s poem, who ultimately fails to become foreign and loses what made him Georgian in the process as well.

Such people are easy to control from the outside because they are devoid of all principles. This is the face of today’s radical opposition, and this was the face of these people when they were in power.

In 2012, when we dispatched the bloody regime of politicians with no homeland who were appointed from outside, I thought that I had completed my mission in full. We returned electoral rights to the Georgian people, released 15,000 prisoners from prison, completely eradicated the torture and inhumane treatment of prisoners, ended the National Movement’s media monopoly, freed up businesses, and brought the country long-term peace and enhanced security.

I will reiterate – I thought that I had completed my mission in full in 2012. However, as it turned out, these achievements were not enough. We must still fight for freedom and sovereignty in order to follow Ilia Chavchavadze’s counsel, whereby “we must belong to ourselves.” Therefore, as a matter of principle and dedication, I personally will continue to fight for the full restoration of the sovereignty of Georgia, our motherland. In recent years, Georgia has endured the hardest struggle to avoid war and maintain peace.

Despite the promise made at the Bucharest Summit in 2008, Georgia and Ukraine were not allowed to join NATO and were left outside. All such decisions are made by the Global War Party, which has a decisive influence on NATO and the European Union and which only sees Georgia and Ukraine as cannon fodder.

They first had Georgia enter into a confrontation with Russia in 2008, and in 2014 and 2022, they put Ukraine in an even more difficult situation. The main reason for the Global War Party’s aggression towards Georgia is that it failed to turn Georgia into a second front despite great efforts, which it could have achieved very easily with the agents’ return to power.

The public often asks, why is it that those abroad fight against the transparency of the NGOs with such fervor? The representatives of our team answer this question in the right manner, but they still shy away from telling the complete truth.

The complete truth is that the non-transparent funding of NGOs is the main tool with which you can appoint the authorities of Georgia from abroad. The goal is for Georgia to be ruled not by the authorities elected by the people but by the “bats” – modern-day Sergo Orjonikidzes and Gigla Berbichashvilis – appointed from outside. Our duty is not to allow this to happen, it is our duty to the Georgian public figures who sacrificed themselves for the idea of Georgia’s freedom.

The funding of NGOs, which they often begrudge us and count as aid, is used almost exclusively to strengthen the agents and bring them to power. Accordingly, these funds have nothing to do with aid, and, on the contrary, their only goal is to deprive Georgia of its state sovereignty.

Today’s Georgia is neither Georgia under Shevardnadze nor Ukraine under Yanukovich. Today, Georgia is governed by a strong and unified team of professionals who know the value of one’s homeland, its independence, and sovereignty. Therefore, it is impossible for the UNM, who have zero support rating, and NGOs to bring about a change of government in Georgia today.

However, this does not mean that we should lose our vigilance and not ensure the creation of a long-term guarantee for Georgia’s sovereignty. The Georgian law “On Transparency of Foreign Influence” serves to strengthen the sovereignty of Georgia.

A question might arise: Why did the team withdraw the law last year, and why are we adopting it this year? There were two main objective reasons for withdrawing the law last year. First, last year, they succeeded in misleading a large part of the public. Therefore, it was our duty to take into account the unease of even those fellow citizens who had been deceived.

Second, we must ensure the political stability of our country, which may have faced difficulties last year had the law not been withdrawn. This year, the situation is radically different. The UNM and its masters could no longer deceive the people, and today, the majority of the public firmly supports the transparency of NGOs. In addition, today we have full resources to pass the law on transparency without harming the stability of the state, and to move the country forward.

Making the right move at the right time is the ultimate art of politics. My political past allows me to claim that as a political leader, I can calculate such moves well.

Another question can also be heard among the public: Would it have been preferable to make the most of the temporary peace and forgo the consideration of the draft laws on LGBT propaganda and NGOs, perhaps even postponing their consideration until after the elections?

In this regard, I would like to tell you unequivocally: let no one have the illusion that they would have let us be for a long time without these draft laws. Let me remind you how fervently they tried to undermine the Central Election Commission and the court all this time.

To this day, they are demanding so-called vetting in the court, that is, the introduction of foreign governance, which will carry out repressions and staff the judicial system with agents. The demands related to the Central Election Commission served a similar purpose, which the Parliament of Georgia rightly did not take into account.

Despite the fact that, according to all independent international studies, the Georgian court is ahead of the courts of many EU member states in terms of justice and effectiveness, despite the fact that they cannot identify a single case that the court decided under the pressure of the political authorities or in a generally unfair manner, the persistent pressure on the authorities to seize the judiciary continues, and it will continue until they lose all hope of success.

When they make demands that they know the authorities will not consider, it is clear that the sole purpose of these demands is to create an artificial inconvenience for the government. Under such conditions, it is clear that the same forces that tried to organize revolutions two and four years ago would definitely attack our country with renewed force in the fall and try once again to return the agents to power.

The energy that they should have gathered for the fall is now being prematurely wasted on the street. Therefore, the initiation of the laws on LGBT propaganda and NGOs served two functions: on the one hand, the legislative regulation of these two issues has no alternative, and on the other, the premature expenditure of accumulated energy will completely drain the power of this, already weakened agency.

Therefore, the time of the initiation of the draft laws has also been chosen perfectly. With these processes, the country and the authorities will lose nothing except for the fact that we will once again upset the Global War Party, which does not lack resentment towards us to begin with because we refused to open a second front.

Many of our fellow citizens are upset because we did not properly punish the United National Movement in 2012. A number of leaders of the regime served long sentences. Manu perpetrators of the regime’s criminal objectives were convicted. Currently, Mikheil Saakashvili, the main criminal of the regime, is serving his sentence. Unfortunately, however, the trial of the National Movement as a single criminal and treasonous group has not taken place.

People directly familiar with the circumstances will agree that we did not have the resources to punish the Nationals at the time, and taking steps without the resources would have been counterproductive. I remember well how, in 2012-2013, top Western officials fought tooth and nail to defend the bloody criminals. The National Movement was designated as the radical opposition from outside Georgia, just as it was designated as the government before that.

Radicalism, so-called polarization, and periodic political upheavals, which have cost our country and its economy dearly over the years, were induced from outside in a completely artificial manner. If it had not been for external support, Georgia would have broken the vicious circle of so-called polarization in a short period of time. You all saw the resolution adopted by the European Parliament a few days ago, in which European politicians were once again advocating for the guilty leaders of the National Movement.

In this case, as well, the Global War Party forced the European Parliament to support a completely un-European resolution. All of this had two goals: on the one hand, they once again tried to brazenly interfere in Georgia’s affairs, and on the other, they once again showed everyone that the European Parliament had become yet another one of their tools, to be used at their convenience.

By adopting this completely un-European resolution, the extent of the Global War Party’s influence over the European Union has once again been demonstrated. The Global War Party has the European Union destroying European values with its own hands, which is its hallmark. They were destroying Georgia in the same manner in 2004-2012, with the help of the Georgians who were in power.

The fate of Georgia should be decided by the Georgian people. Over these years, we have accumulated enough resources to begin to fully consolidate our sovereignty. This is precisely what the law “On Transparency of Foreign Influence” serves. And after the elections, we will have the opportunity to give the collective National Movement the harsh political and legal judgment it deserves for the nine years of bloody rule and 12 years spent in the role of the “ruinous overseer” [in opposition].

After the elections, the National Movement will strictly answer for all the crimes it has committed against the Georgian state and the Georgian people over two decades! Back in 2014, I founded Society 2030. At that time, EU membership seemed a very distant prospect, and I avoided talking about membership publicly because the public might not have appreciated my excessive optimism.

However, even then, I saw that Georgia could join the European Union by 2030. Today, when 2030 is only six years away, Georgia is a clear leader among the candidate countries for membership in the European Union in terms of democracy, human rights, strength of institutions, and the infrequency of corruption.

Georgia’s economy is growing at the fastest rate among all candidate countries. I promise you that we will overcome all obstacles, strengthen our sovereignty, maintain peace, strengthen the Georgian economy, and become a member of the European Union in 2030. We are a unique nation with a unique history, traditions, and identity.

It is with these unique national traditions and identity that we should join the common European family because only in such a case can the European Union have real value for Georgia and vice versa. The success of our football players has strengthened our belief that dreams can come true. A 30-year-old dream came true for Georgian fans, and the Georgian national team qualified for the European Championship for the first time in history. I believe that this great success is the first step on the way to realizing the dreams of our country. A free, independent, and sovereign Georgia, a member of the European Union, a united and whole Georgia – this is our Georgian dream, which we will achieve together. Once again, I wish you a happy Easter in advance! I wish you and your families spiritual and physical vigor, happiness, and success! Long live independent, free, sovereign, and united Georgia!?"

Logged
Storr
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,261
Moldova, Republic of


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #85 on: April 30, 2024, 05:41:03 PM »

The leader of UNM has reportedly been beaten by police after being abducted:

Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,191
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #86 on: April 30, 2024, 06:09:14 PM »

Wait, how is GD polling that high? I thought they were ridiculously unpopular.
Logged
Storr
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,261
Moldova, Republic of


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #87 on: April 30, 2024, 06:33:25 PM »

"Tbilisi, Rustaveli Avenue, May 1, 3am

You can't just crush these people with force; instead, you ignite them, making them even more furious"


Logged
Astatine
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,880


Political Matrix
E: -0.72, S: -5.90

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #88 on: April 30, 2024, 08:50:18 PM »

Wait, how is GD polling that high? I thought they were ridiculously unpopular.
1) Georgian polls are generally iffy and have a reputation for being unreliable. They usually include a large share of undecideds (CRRC/NDI/IRI), and several pollsters have a clear bias (GORBI is GD aligned, ISSA is Ahali aligned, Edison/IRI/Ipsos are mostly neutral, the former with a slight opposition bias). E.g., in 2018, there was one poll showing Zurabishvili losing the presidential election by 40 %p (she went to win by 20).
2) No poll has been conducted since the reintroduction of the Foreign Agent Law. The first time they tried to pass it, reputable pollsters showed GD dropping to the mid 30s.
3) The opposition remains a bunch of strategically inept idiots at large, to put it mildly.
4) UNM is still way more hated than GD is. As long as UNM exists, GD will be seen as the lesser of two evils, though that effect is slowly decreasing, especially with a younger electorate that didn't actively experience the Misha years.
5) It cannot be overstated how many resources GD has. It is the party of the civil servant sector, e.g. in a counter-demonstration organized by the government on Monday, thousands of state employees were bused to Tbilisi (some were allegedly threatened they'd lose their jobs if they don't comply). Few days before the 2018 presidential elections, GD announced that the debt of 600,000 citizens will be canceled through the foundation of Bidzina Ivanishvili. Vote buying is a problem in Georgia (not saying that UNM didn't engage in similar shenanigans back in the day, many of the now GD strongholds used to vote for UNM - They support whoever forms the incumbent government and get rewarded).

Nobody can tell how popular GD actually is at the moment. General sentiment is that a majority of the public is very pissed and that GD officials are aware of that, but one key lesson in Georgian politics is that GD is not dumb. Every step is calculated.
Logged
Storr
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,261
Moldova, Republic of


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #89 on: April 30, 2024, 09:57:12 PM »

Beating unarmed protestors is exhausting business:


Logged
Pages: 1 2 3 [4]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.059 seconds with 11 queries.