Is there any chance that Rodriguez could win this?
Remember how Mary Landrieu won her runoff in 2002 just weeks after big Republican gains. There can always be a surprise.
I have always suspected the big Republican gains helped Landrieu there, frankly. There is actually pretty decent historical evidence that elections held directly after (like a month or two) strong national gains (by one party or another) tend to go the other way.
I guess the partisans just conclude, we've made the big gains, now let's focus on governing and don't bother to show up to vote. I have no better explanation than this tautology.
Anyway, a Louisiana runoff is much different than a TX-23 runoff because of the big issue of turnout I mentioned above in a low-turnout area (which becomes super-low in runoffs typically.
I was relooking over the numbers, and roughly only 40% of RV showed up at the general election. You'll be lucky to see half that number come runoff time.
I'm going to take a rough guesstimate and say that Rodriguez needs to, at minimum, win Bexar County, in order to have a shot. If he doesn't, he won't, because he's not a good candidate to do battle in the rural border areas. It can certainly happen, because these are low turnout elections, but I would believe the chance would be stronger if I saw more Dem money being spent here.