Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
October 23, 2014, 04:19:33 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Election Archive
| |-+  2006 Elections
| | |-+  2006 Senatorial Election Polls
| | | |-+  SUSA: Bonilla With Decent Lead in Runoff
« previous next »
Pages: [1] Print
Author Topic: SUSA: Bonilla With Decent Lead in Runoff  (Read 6751 times)
InsideTheBeltway
Jr. Member
**
Posts: 81


View Profile
« on: December 04, 2006, 10:34:56 pm »
Ignore

This is my first post on this forum, so here goes:

A new SurveyUSA poll for the TX-23 runoff shows Bonilla up 53%-46%.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportPopup.aspx?g=e66c6e0f-0e47-43e4-82b8-955e2b96df23&q=37263
Logged

Economic score: -0.26
Social score: +8.17

Your score pegs you as economically centrist and socially strongly authoritarian.

My blog (still under construction):

http://electionadvantage.blogspot.com/
nini2287
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6644


Political Matrix
E: 2.77, S: -3.39

P

View Profile
« Reply #1 on: December 04, 2006, 10:43:40 pm »
Ignore

Welcome to the forum!

That poll is about where I'd expect the race to be.  Is the runoff a week from tomorrow?
Logged


InsideTheBeltway
Jr. Member
**
Posts: 81


View Profile
« Reply #2 on: December 04, 2006, 11:03:37 pm »
Ignore

Yep, the runoff is scheduled to be next Tuesday 12/12.  There is still a possibility, though, that a court overturn the date between now and then.
« Last Edit: December 04, 2006, 11:12:05 pm by InsideTheBeltway »Logged

Economic score: -0.26
Social score: +8.17

Your score pegs you as economically centrist and socially strongly authoritarian.

My blog (still under construction):

http://electionadvantage.blogspot.com/
Grad Students are the Worst
Alcon
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 29664
United States


View Profile
« Reply #3 on: December 04, 2006, 11:37:12 pm »
Ignore

That's a little closer than I expected, but not by much.  Sounds about right.

Welcome, by the way.  Smiley
Logged

n/c
Sam Spade
SamSpade
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 27871


View Profile
« Reply #4 on: December 05, 2006, 12:44:45 am »
Ignore

Sounds close to being right %-wise, with usual MOE caveats. 

Of course, with it being a runoff, turnout is a huge issue (especially in this CD) and probably skews the sample somewhat (though which way I don't know). 

I also doubt 47.9% of RV are LV in this election (it'll probably be about 30%-35% max), but who knows for sure.

I would like to see a regional breakdown to make sure that those rural border areas have been properly surveyed, but you can't get everything.
Logged
Cubby
Pim Fortuyn
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4661
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -3.74, S: -6.96

View Profile
« Reply #5 on: December 05, 2006, 01:00:33 am »
Ignore

Is there any chance that Rodriguez could win this?

Remember how Mary Landrieu won her runoff in 2002 just weeks after big Republican gains. There can always be a surprise.
Logged

Hearing scattered reports of de Blasio supporters rounding up Kulaks on Wall Street and executing them in the streets.
It's always nice to see white people claim distant lands.
Sam Spade
SamSpade
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 27871


View Profile
« Reply #6 on: December 05, 2006, 01:36:30 am »
Ignore

Is there any chance that Rodriguez could win this?

Remember how Mary Landrieu won her runoff in 2002 just weeks after big Republican gains. There can always be a surprise.

I have always suspected the big Republican gains helped Landrieu there, frankly.  There is actually pretty decent historical evidence that elections held directly after (like a month or two) strong national gains (by one party or another) tend to go the other way.

I guess the partisans just conclude, we've made the big gains, now let's focus on governing and don't bother to show up to vote.  I have no better explanation than this tautology.

Anyway, a Louisiana runoff is much different than a TX-23 runoff because of the big issue of turnout I mentioned above in a low-turnout area (which becomes super-low in runoffs typically.

I was relooking over the numbers, and roughly only 40% of RV showed up at the general election.  You'll be lucky to see half that number come runoff time.

I'm going to take a rough guesstimate and say that Rodriguez needs to, at minimum, win Bexar County, in order to have a shot.  If he doesn't, he won't, because he's not a good candidate to do battle in the rural border areas.  It can certainly happen, because these are low turnout elections, but I would believe the chance would be stronger if I saw more Dem money being spent here.
Logged
Padfoot
padfoot714
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4425
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.58, S: -6.96

P P P

View Profile
« Reply #7 on: December 11, 2006, 07:50:03 am »
Ignore

If Rodriguez does win, would he be vulnerbale in 2008?  More or less so than Lampson in TX-22?
Logged

Verily
Cuivienen
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 16806


Political Matrix
E: 1.81, S: -6.78

View Profile
« Reply #8 on: December 11, 2006, 08:52:33 am »
Ignore

Mildly vulnerable, but much less so than Lampson. This district is pretty swing-ish. It has a slight lean to the GOP but would probably reelect a Dem incumbent by a wide margin. That said, Rodriguez is a terrible campaigner, so he would probably be vulnerable anywhere that isn't ultra-safe.
Logged
Sam Spade
SamSpade
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 27871


View Profile
« Reply #9 on: December 11, 2006, 08:40:36 pm »
Ignore

Mildly vulnerable, but much less so than Lampson. This district is pretty swing-ish. It has a slight lean to the GOP but would probably reelect a Dem incumbent by a wide margin. That said, Rodriguez is a terrible campaigner, so he would probably be vulnerable anywhere that isn't ultra-safe.

Your analysis is correct in some areas, wildly wrong in others, but that's ok.

What's interesting is that I'm willing to bet (and I'd have to do hardcore numbers on this) that this may be the only CD in Texas where the Hispanic population as a % is actually declining.  Western Bexar County is highly exurban and growing fast and the center of Hispanic population in the CD, South Bexar (inside Loop 410), is pretty stagnant population-wise.  The rural counties are, of course, fairly stagnant.  They aren't Webb County.
Logged
Pages: [1] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.20 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines